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Tropical Cyclones in the Great Barrier Reef Region

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Tropical Cyclones in the Great Barrier Reef Region Tropical cyclones and climate change in the Great Barrier Reef region Tropical cyclones can devastate coastal and marine ecosystems in the Great Barrier Reef region. Reef image: Matt Curnock > The annual number of Tropical cyclones have the potential to generate extreme winds, tropical cyclones in the heavy rainfall and large waves that can devastate agriculture Great Barrier Reef region and marine infrastructure and ecosystems in the Great Barrier shows large year-to-year Reef (GBR) region. Powerful wind gusts, storm surges and variability, primarily due coastal flooding resulting from tropical cyclones can damage to the El Niño-Southern tourism infrastructure, such as damage to Hamilton Island Oscillation phenomenon. from cyclone Debbie in 2017, and the combination of wind, flooding and wave action can uproot mangroves. > There is no clear trend Wave action and flood plumes from Global temperatures continue in the annual number river runoff can devastate seagrass to increase in response to rising (e.g. central GBR, cyclone Yasi, concentrations of greenhouse gases of observed tropical 2011) and coral reef communities in the atmosphere. In response, the cyclones impacting (e.g. southern GBR, cyclone impacts associated with extreme the Great Barrier Reef Hamish, 2009 and northern GBR, weather hazards and disasters, since 1980. However, cyclone Nathan, 2015). Waves in including those caused by tropical particular can damage corals even cyclones in the GBR region, are during this time impacts when cyclones are several hundred likely to change. Understanding how from other stressors kilometers away from the reef. these changes to extreme weather hazards will manifest in the GBR have increased in Recovery of ecosystems from this region in the future is critical for damage can take years to decades, frequency and severity. increasing Australia’s preparedness such as the damage caused by Most notably, three and resilience. severe tropical cyclone Yasi in 2011, episodes of mass coral which affected roughly 90,000 km2 Researchers in the Earth Systems bleaching since 2016 (15 %) of the Great Barrier Reef and Climate Change Hub have have compounded the Marine Park. collaborated with stakeholders such as the Australian Institute of Marine In recent decades, damage from effects of cyclones on Science and the Great Barrier Reef tropical cyclones – compounded by the health of the reef. Marine Park Authority to provide the effects of climate change and tailored data, information and advice other human-caused stressors – on past and future tropical cyclones has caused substantial loss of coral and their hazards to help better > Climate models indicate cover in the GBR region. that tropical cyclones plan for and deal with how climate change may impact the GBR region. will become less common over most of the Great Barrier Reef by the end of this century. The possible exception to this is the southern section of the reef, where some climate models indicate a slight increase in cyclone frequency in a warmer climate. > Of the tropical cyclones which will occur in the Great Barrier Reef region, there is a projected increase in the proportion of high intensity cyclones with stronger winds, heavier rainfall and more damaging waves. Impacts of tropical cyclones on coral reefs Coral reefs worldwide are at In 2016, the largest marine industry of new pharmaceutical discoveries. increasing risk of damage from a in Australia in terms of jobs and In addition to the ecological and combination of human impacts, earnings in that year was marine economic impacts of tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves that bleach tourism. Coral reefs also play a key they also pose a threat to significant corals and kill seagrass, ocean role in supporting tropical fisheries, are Aboriginal and Torres Straight acidification and physical damage instrumental in protecting shorelines Islander cultural, social, environmental from cyclone wave action. around the world from erosion and, as and economic values within and hotbeds of biodiversity, are sources surrounding the GBR. In the GBR, three mass coral bleaching events (2016, 2017, 2020), poor water quality from land runoff Strong and major cyclones in 2009, 2011, wind gusts 2015 and 2017 have combined to Impact on food (Estimated over source; reduced cause major loss of hard coral, as km h- at capacity of the well as a decrease in the average Tully Sugar Mill Very powerl Reef to buer size of corals. When hard coral cover station) and destructive ture cyclones Extensive drops below a certain level, reefs may Relatively ocean waves with greater damage to no longer be able to provide the key large size corals, natural spacial coverage, Long-term decline ecosystem services that underpin habitats, reefs Severe (Approx. km persisting for a in coral cover and shorelines Australia’s blue economy. Cyclone Yasi at landfall) longer period and/or shi in Cyclones that generate the most (Category 5 of time coral composition over the Translational and structure damaging waves are those that move Reef) speed slowly, have a large spatial footprint - over which high winds occur and (Approx. km h prior to landfall) Storm surge Changes in Outbreak in coral are intense. Consequently, when and coastal chemical predators (like assessing the potential risk to the Extreme ooding properties of crown-of-thorns GBR, it is important to consider not rainfall seawater starsh) just cyclone intensity, but also size (Over mm and forward speed. For example, in hrs at a relatively weak but slow moving Mission Beach ) and large sized cyclone like Justin (1997) can generate waves more Figure 1: Tropical cyclones can devastate ecosystems within the Great Barrier Reef damaging than a much more intense through strong winds, extreme rainfall, strong ocean waves and storm surges. but smaller and fast-moving cyclone This schematic illustrates the widespread destruction across the GBR caused by like Larry (2006). severe tropical cyclone Yasi. Yasi passed over the GBR and made landfall on the southern tropical coast near Mission Beach on 3 February 2011. LEFT: Tropical cyclones can impact many Australian sectors in the Great Barrier Reef region, including agriculture. Image iStock.com/Jaykayl ABOVE: Damaging waves resulting from tropical cyclones pose a particular risk to coral reefs. Image iStock.com/Velvetfish Observed tropical cyclones in the Great Barrier Reef region On average about 11 tropical decades. There is some evidence of year. ACE is an index that combines cyclones form within or move into an increasing trend in the seasonal tropical cyclone frequency, intensity the Australian region (90°–160°E) Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and lifetime into a single measure of every year. Of these, around 25% over the past decades, though this total wind energy for each season. (approximately 3 tropical cyclones) changes a great deal from year to pass within 250 km of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park. The Coral Sea region off the northeast coast of Australia (seaward of the GBR) is a hot spot for the formation of some of the strongest tropical −10 TCs per cyclones to have impacted the reef. decade Tropical cyclones that form in the 4 Gulf of Carpentaria may also track 3 towards the reef (e.g. Penny, 2019 3 and Oswald, 2013) but they generally 2 latitude(°) 2 weaken substantially as they approach −20 the GBR because they must cross 1 land to do so. Severe tropical cyclone Yasi in 1 2011 was one of the most powerful cyclones to affect Queensland since −30 records began. Since this time, five more severe cyclones (i.e. category 120 130 140 150 160 170 3–5) have entered the GBR region. longitude (°) These include Ita (2014), Marcia (2015), Nathan (2015), Debbie (2017) Figure 2: The average number of tropical cyclones in any 1 x 1 degree grid box that pass within 250 km of the Great Barrier Reef, per decade. These cyclones and Trevor (2019). make up about 25% of all those that form in or move through the larger Australian Tropical cyclones that develop and region (90°–160°E). The Great Barrier Reef Marine Park is shown by the magenta track within the GBR region and boundary. Tropical cyclone tracks are sourced from the Bureau of Meteorology for the period July 1980 to June 2020. greater Coral Sea are notoriously erratic in terms of their movement, sometimes completing several loops 8 25 before either making landfall or moving Severe tropical cyclones further out to sea (e.g. Rewa, 1993– 7 All tropical cyclones 1994). In addition to their variable Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) tracks, there is also large variability in 20 6 the number of tropical cyclones that occur over different parts of the GBR. 5 Tropical cyclones that tracked within 15 250 km of the GBR in the past four decades were most frequent in the 4 central and northern parts of the GBR 10 (between Lockhart River in Cape York 3 Peninsula and Townsville), with fewer cyclones occurring over the southern 2 parts of the reef. Number of tropical cyclones 5 Observations show that fewer tropical 1 Accumulated Cyclone Energy, ACE cyclones track near or within the GBR during El Niño years (~1.9 0 0 per year) than in La Niña (~2.9 per 1984/85 1989/90 1994/95 1999/00 2004/05 2009/10 2014/15 year). The overall number of tropical Figure 3: Very little change has been observed in the number of tropical cyclones cyclones, as well as severe tropical and severe tropical cyclones in the Great Barrier Reef region since 1980, but a small cyclones, passing over the GBR upward trend in Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE, 104 kt 2 ) has occurred. The overall has not changed significantly over number of tropical cyclones is shown (green), including severe cyclones in the GBR region the past four decades, despite a (orange).
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