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Below Expected but Solid 3Q Guide Proves Earnings Turnaround; Buy

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Below Expected but Solid 3Q Guide Proves Earnings Turnaround; Buy August 19, 2016 EARNINGS REVIEW GoerTek Inc. (002241.SZ) Buy Equity Research Below expected but solid 3Q guide proves earnings turnaround; Buy What surprised us Investment Profile For the first time, GoerTek hosted a conference call post its interim results. Low High Highlights: (1) Chairman reiterated GoerTek’s leading position in VR ODM in Growth Growth Returns * Returns * terms of technology know-how, patents, automation and vertical integration Multiple Multiple and expects VR market to at least double yoy in 2017, in line with our Volatility Volatility forecast. GoerTek is working with a dozen of VR customers aside from Percentile 20th 40th 60th 80th 100th Oculus and Sony. AR is expected to start contributing to revenue in 2017. (2) GoerTek Inc. (002241.SZ) Besides VR/AR, GoerTek is also focusing on other high-growth segments Asia Pacific Technology Peer Group Average * Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment including drones, robots and smart audio devices etc., which would prevail profile measures please refer to the in the 5G and IoT era. (3) On the acoustic side, company notes continuous disclosure section of this document. spec upgrade in smartphone and expects high-end smartphone OEMs to Key data Current adopt wireless earphone in 2018; GoerTek has its edge on Blue Tooth and Price (Rmb) 28.71 12 month price target (Rmb) 33.50 RF technology. (4) For near term, company guided stable GPM in 2H16 vs. Market cap (Rmb mn / US$ mn) 43,824.7 / 6,609.1 Foreign ownership (%) -- 1H16 slightly below our estimate, due to product mix shift. 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E What to do with the stock EPS (Rmb) New 0.82 1.06 1.34 1.61 EPS revision (%) 0.0 (4.6) (2.8) 1.8 Maintain Buy. Solid 3Q guidance assures our view on earnings growth EPS growth (%) (24.5) 28.8 27.0 20.0 EPS (dil) (Rmb) New 0.82 1.06 1.34 1.61 turnaround, which should drive a re-rating of the stock, in our view. We P/E (X) 37.9 27.2 21.4 17.8 P/B (X) 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.9 adjust our 2016-18 EPS forecasts by -5% to +2% to reflect lower acoustic EV/EBITDA (X) 21.2 16.2 13.4 11.8 margin and higher VR shipment. Rolling over our valuation, our 12m TP Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 ROE (%) 14.1 15.9 17.4 17.8 increases to Rmb33.5 from Rmb31.6, derived by applying global peers’ CROCI (%) 20.0 17.1 16.7 16.1 average 2017E P/E of 21.5X to 2021E earnings and discounting back with Price performance chart 8.4% COE. Key risks: slower-than-expected ramp up of VR. 38 4,600 36 4,400 We adjust our 2016 to 2018 EPS forecasts by -5% to +2% 34 4,200 GoerTek forecasts revisions 32 4,000 30 3,800 GoerTek estimates 2016E 2017E 2018E 28 3,600 New Old Diff. New Old Diff. New Old Diff. Revenue (Rmb mn) 19,478 19,516 -0.2% 24,421 24,383 0.2% 29,197 28,327 3.1% 26 3,400 Gross margin (%) 23.3% 23.6% -0.3% 23.0% 23.1% -0.2% 22.5% 22.6% -0.1% 24 3,200 Operating profit (Rmb mn) 2,087 2,157 -3.3% 2,668 2,698 -1.1% 3,129 3,064 2.1% 22 3,000 Net profit (Rmb mn) 1,612 1,690 -4.6% 2,047 2,105 -2.8% 2,457 2,413 1.8% EPS (Rmb) 1.06 1.11 -4.6% 1.34 1.38 -2.8% 1.61 1.58 1.8% 20 2,800 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Source: Gao Hua Securities Research GoerTek Inc. (L) Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 (R) Share price performance (%) 3 month 6 month 12 month Absolute 5.2 (3.8) (3.3) INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP Rel. to Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 (4.1) (12.7) 10.0 Asia Pacific Buy List Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 8/18/2016 close. Coverage View: Neutral Lingling Hu +86(10)6627-3520 [email protected] Beijing Gao Hua Securities Company Limited Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies Stephy Xu covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be +65-6654-5262 [email protected] Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to www.gs.com/research/hedge.html. Analysts employed by non- US affiliates are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA in the U.S. The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Global Investment Research August 19, 2016 GoerTek Inc. (002241.SZ) GoerTek Inc.: Summary Financials Profit model (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Balance sheet (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Total revenue 13,656.0 19,477.6 24,420.7 29,196.5 Cash & equivalents 4,378.8 2,745.3 2,159.5 1,903.6 Cost of goods sold (10,256.1) (14,944.5) (18,806.6) (22,616.0) Accounts receivable 3,918.9 5,589.6 7,008.1 8,378.6 SG&A (989.3) (1,414.2) (1,724.8) (2,020.8) Inventory 2,146.9 3,128.3 3,936.8 4,734.2 R&D (770.5) (1,032.3) (1,221.0) (1,430.6) Other current assets 198.5 198.5 198.5 198.5 Other operating profit/(expense) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total current assets 10,643.1 11,661.7 13,302.9 15,215.0 ESO expense -- -- -- -- Net PP&E 6,692.4 8,573.1 10,010.4 11,515.9 EBITDA 2,336.7 2,937.3 3,603.0 4,111.4 Net intangibles 1,575.4 1,376.1 1,202.1 1,050.1 Depreciation & amortization (696.7) (850.6) (934.6) (982.3) Total investments 253.1 253.1 253.1 253.1 EBIT 1,640.0 2,086.6 2,668.4 3,129.1 Other long-term assets 84.0 84.0 84.0 84.0 Interest income 53.6 38.6 39.4 31.0 Total assets 19,247.9 21,948.0 24,852.5 28,118.0 Interest expense (241.6) (277.4) (307.0) (256.6) Income/(loss) from uncons. subs. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Accounts payable 2,755.9 4,015.7 5,053.5 6,077.1 Others 38.6 64.3 33.6 33.6 Short-term debt 2,673.8 2,673.8 2,673.8 2,673.8 Pretax profits 1,490.6 1,912.1 2,434.5 2,937.1 Other current liabilities 470.2 478.7 522.2 563.2 Income tax (250.2) (319.1) (406.6) (490.5) Total current liabilities 5,899.9 7,168.2 8,249.5 9,314.1 Minorities 10.7 19.2 19.2 10.0 Long-term debt 3,742.1 3,742.1 3,742.1 3,742.1 Net income pre-preferred dividends 1,251.1 1,612.1 2,047.1 2,456.6 Other long-term liabilities 109.0 109.0 109.0 109.0 Preferred dividends 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total long-term liabilities 3,851.1 3,851.1 3,851.1 3,851.1 Net income (pre-exceptionals) 1,251.1 1,612.1 2,047.1 2,456.6 Total liabilities 9,751.0 11,019.3 12,100.6 13,165.2 Post-tax exceptionals 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net income 1,251.1 1,612.1 2,047.1 2,456.6 Preferred shares 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total common equity 9,405.1 10,856.0 12,698.4 14,909.3 EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb) 0.82 1.06 1.34 1.61 Minority interest 91.9 72.7 53.5 43.5 EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb) 0.82 1.06 1.34 1.61 EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb) 0.82 1.06 1.34 1.61 Total liabilities & equity 19,247.9 21,948.0 24,852.5 28,118.0 EPS excl. ESO expense (basic) (Rmb) -- -- -- -- EPS excl. ESO expense (dil.) (Rmb) -- -- -- -- BVPS (Rmb) 6.16 7.11 8.32 9.77 DPS (Rmb) 0.100.110.130.16 Dividend payout ratio (%) 12.2 10.0 10.0 10.0 Free cash flow yield (%) 0.8 (3.4) (1.0) (0.1) Ratios 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Growth & margins (%) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E CROCI (%) 20.0 17.1 16.7 16.1 Sales growth 7.5 42.6 25.4 19.6 ROE (%) 14.1 15.9 17.4 17.8 EBITDA growth (7.1) 25.7 22.7 14.1 ROA (%) 6.8 7.8 8.7 9.3 EBIT growth (20.8) 27.2 27.9 17.3 ROACE (%) 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.4 Net income growth (24.5) 28.9 27.0 20.0 Inventory days 66.9 64.4 68.6 70.0 EPS growth (24.5) 28.8 27.0 20.0 Receivables days 109.2 89.1 94.1 96.2 Gross margin 24.9 23.3 23.0 22.5 Payable days 93.2 82.7 88.0 89.8 EBITDA margin 17.1 15.1 14.8 14.1 Net debt/equity (%) 21.5 33.6 33.4 30.2 EBIT margin 12.0 10.7 10.9 10.7 Interest cover - EBIT (X) 8.7 8.7 10.0 13.9 Cash flow statement (Rmb mn) 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Valuation 12/15 12/16E 12/17E 12/18E Net income pre-preferred dividends 1,251.1 1,612.1 2,047.1 2,456.6 D&A add-back 696.7 850.6 934.6 982.3 P/E (analyst) (X) 37.9 27.2 21.4 17.8 Minorities interests add-back (10.7) (19.2) (19.2) (10.0) P/B (X) 5.0 4.0 3.5 2.9 Net (inc)/dec working capital 74.8 (1,392.3) (1,189.2) (1,144.3) EV/EBITDA (X) 21.2 16.2 13.4 11.8 Other operating cash flow 397.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV/GCI (X) 3.7 2.7 2.3 2.0 Cash flow from operations 2,409.1 1,051.3 1,773.3 2,284.5 Dividend yield (%) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 Capital expenditures (2,035.9) (2,532.1) (2,197.9) (2,335.7) Acquisitions 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Divestitures 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 Others (199.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from investments (2,228.4) (2,532.1) (2,197.9) (2,335.7) Dividends paid (common & pref) (367.2) (152.6) (161.2) (204.7) Inc/(dec) in debt (277.3) 0.0 0.0 0.0 Common stock issuance (repurchase) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Other financing cash flows 264.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cash flow from financing (379.9) (152.6) (161.2) (204.7) Note: Last actual year may include reported and estimated data.
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