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Shinsegae International (031430 KS) Cosmetics Drive Earnings Higher

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Shinsegae International (031430 KS) Cosmetics Drive Earnings Higher Shinsegae International (031430 KS) Cosmetics drive earnings higher Textiles/Apparel 2Q18 review Results Comment For 2Q18, Shinsegae International announced revenue of W283.4bn (+18.3% YoY) and August 9, 2018 operating profit of W14.3bn (+222.1% YoY). This brings 1H18 cumulative operating profit to W26.1bn, above the 2017 full-year figure (W25.4bn). We believe the results once again underscore the strong performance of the cosmetics business and its positive impact on overall margins. Detailed results by business division will be available when consolidated earnings are released on August 14th. (Maintain) Buy Cosmetics: We estimate that the cosmetics business recorded revenue of W54bn and Target Price(12M, W) 260,000 operating profit of W11.9bn (83% of overall operating profit), with OP margin of over 22%. This represents remarkable growth, considering that 2Q is typically the slowest Share Price (08/08/18, W) 172,500 quarter. One-offs: We believe that subsidiaries were affected by some one-off expenses: 1) We Expected Return 51% estimate that Tomboy posted a roughly W900mn loss, due to inventory valuation losses (estimated at W1.5bn) related to the withdrawal of Tomkid in June; 2) we also believe Paul Poiret front-loaded expenses related to its 2019 spring/summer fashion OP (18F, Wbn) 62 show (estimated at W3.3bn). We expect losses to decline sharply in 3Q18, as revenue Consensus OP (18F, Wbn) 62 recognition begins. EPS Growth (18F, %) 89.4 2H18 preview Market EPS Growth (18F, %) 10.5 P/E (18F, x) 27.0 We see several tailwinds ahead in 2H18. Demand in the duty-free channel should grow, Market P/E (18F, x) 9.0 thanks to holiday effects, while volume growth should continue on the back of brand KOSPI 2,301.45 portfolio expansion and distribution channel additions. Market Cap (Wbn) 1,232 Holidays: Inbound/outbound demand in the duty-free channel will likely be boosted Shares Outstanding (mn) 7 by: 1) Korea’s Chuseok holiday (China’s Mid-Autumn Festival) in late September; and 2) Free Float (%) 34.9 China’s Golden Week in early October. Foreign Ownership (%) 4.4 New brands: Upcoming new launches include: 1) the Yeonjak brand in October; 2) Beta (12M) 0.71 products from VIDIVICI (six new skincare items) in November; and 3) Jaju’s private-label 52-Week Low 56,100 cosmetics. 52-Week High 214,000 Platform expansion: We expect VIDIVICI’s additional rollout in downtown duty-free (%) 1M 6M 12M stores to support revenue growth. The brand opened at the Shinsegae DF Gangnam Absolute -12.9 107.8 148.6 store and the SM Duty Free Seoul store in July, and is set to open in three more Relative -14.0 117.4 158.6 locations in the coming months: Lotte Duty Free Jeju in August, Hyundai Duty Free Gangnam in November, and Top City Duty Free Sinchon Station in December. 370 Shinsegae International KOSPI 320 Maintain Buy and TP of W260,000 270 220 We reaffirm our Buy rating and SOTP-based target price of W260,000 on Shinsegae 170 International. We see: 1) fundamentals improving on the back of strong earnings 120 growth; and 2) potential multiple expansion driven by the cosmetics business. We 70 believe that Shinsegae International is more than just an apparel firm. With cosmetics 7.17 11.17 3.18 7.18 generating an OP margin above 20%, we think the company offers an attractive investment opportunity as a cosmetics play. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. [ Textiles/Apparel] FY (Dec.) 12/15 12/16 12/17 12/18F 12/19F 12/20F Revenue (Wbn) 1,005 1,021 1,103 1,273 1,405 1,490 Nu-ri Ha +822-3774-1653 OP (Wbn) 20 27 25 62 100 124 [email protected] OP Margin (%) 2.0 2.6 2.3 4.9 7.1 8.3 NP (Wbn) 21 17 24 46 74 93 EPS (W) 2,958 2,432 3,371 6,384 10,336 12,967 ROE (%) 4.6 3.7 5.0 8.9 13.0 14.4 P/E (x) 34.7 27.2 22.0 27.0 16.7 13.3 P/B (x) 1.6 1.0 1.1 2.3 2.1 1.8 Dividend Yield (%) 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.3 0.3 Note: All figures are based on consolidated K-IFRS; NP refers to net profit attributable to controlling interests Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 9, 2018 Shinsegae International Fact check about Shinsegae International’s cosmetics business outlook 1) Intensifying competition in the duty-free market is positive for Shinsegae International Recently, investment sentiment on duty-free operators has largely weakened on concerns over intensifying competition. However, Lotte Group is planning the IPO of Lotte Duty Free, and Shinsegae DF is weighed down by a higher cost burden resulting from the opening of additional stores in Gangnam and Terminal 1 of Incheon International Airport. Thus, we do not expect to see a game of chicken in the industry sparked by companies’ market share expansion efforts, like commission hikes. Even if competition becomes more intense, Shinsegae International - as a content provider - should be able to boost sales volume on the back of platform operators’ expansion of discounts. Any increase in commissions or discounts leads to a higher cost burden solely for duty-free companies, not product providers. 2) For VIDIVICI, monthly average revenue is more important than monthly revenue The monthly revenue trend of VIDIVICI is gaining attention. However, given that consumer goods tend to display strong seasonality, the trend of monthly average revenue by quarter, rather than the trend of monthly revenue, should provide a more meaningful insight into the company’s operating performances. VIDIVICI’s monthly average revenue came in at W6.7bn in 2Q, and is anticipated to have exceeded W10bn in 2Q. 3) Low revenue contribution form Shinsegae DF Approximately 80% of VIDIVICI’s revenue is generated from duty-free stores. However, revenue from Shinsegae DF store (one in Myeongdong) accounts for less than 20% of duty- free revenue and just 10-15% of the total revenue of the brand. The revenue contribution from Shinsegae DF could increase further, due to the brand’s additional opening at the Shinsegae DF Gangnam store in July. However, the extent of the increase should be limited, as the brand is scheduled to open in three more non-Shinsegae duty-free shops in 2H. Table 1. VIDIVICI’s duty-free presence Brand # of locations Stores Current: Lotte Duty Free Sogong, Lotte Duty Free World Tower, Hotel Shilla Seoul, Hotel Shilla Jeju, Shilla I'PARK Duty Free, Galleria Duty Free 63, Shinsegae Department Store (Myeongdong), Doota Duty Free, Dongwha Duty Free Currently 9 July: Shinsegae DF Gangnam, SM Duty Free Seoul VIDIVICI (14 by end-2018) August: Lotte Duty Free Jeju November: HDC Shilla Duty Free in Gangnam November: Top City Duty Free in Sinchon Source: Shinsegae International, media reports, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 9, 2018 Shinsegae International Earnings trend and outlook Table 2. Shinsegae International’s 2Q18P earnings (Wbn, %, %p) 2Q18P Growth 2Q17 1Q18 Preliminary Mirae Asset Daewoo Consensus YoY QoQ Revenue 239 304 283 284 279 18.4 -6.9 Operating profit 4 12 14 16 11 222.9 20.8 OP margin 1.8 3.9 5.0 5.6 3.8 3.2 1.2 Note: Detailed results will be announced on August 14th. Source: WISEfn, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 3. Shinsegae International’s earnings trend and outlook (Wbn, %) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18P 3Q18F 4Q18F 2017 2018F 2019F Revenue 272.1 239.5 268.8 322.2 304.4 283.4 311.2 373.6 1,102.4 1,273.5 1,404.7 Foreign brands 93.8 88.9 90.3 107.7 91.2 87.9 90.5 108.5 380.6 379.1 382.9 Domestic brands 87.9 59.6 85.1 91.3 89.1 62.6 85.4 91.5 323.9 326.8 336.6 Cosmetics 11.3 14.5 15.8 21.4 39.9 54.0 55.0 69.3 63.0 219.0 329.0 Lifestyle 43.4 48.1 50.2 51.5 45.1 49.2 51.0 52.5 193.1 199.2 207.1 Tomboy 37.3 28.7 27.9 50.6 39.6 30.0 29.0 53.1 144.5 150.1 146.9 Operating profit 4.4 4.4 0.9 15.7 11.8 14.3 14.2 22.1 25.4 62.4 99.9 OP margin 1.6 1.9 0.3 4.9 3.9 5.0 4.6 5.9 2.3 4.9 7.1 Foreign brands 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.1 2.6 2.7 0.4 3.0 6.0 8.8 10.3 Domestic brands 0.5 -0.4 -0.6 4.1 2.1 0.1 0.0 1.8 3.6 3.5 12.6 Cosmetics 0.3 0.6 2.0 2.9 7.2 11.9 12.3 14.3 5.7 46.1 64.8 Lifestyle 2.0 4.7 3.4 3.6 1.3 4.2 2.9 3.6 13.7 12.0 13.2 Tomboy 1.5 0.6 -1.6 4.8 2.0 -0.9 0.0 4.2 5.2 5.6 7.9 Paul Poiret -1.2 -1.8 -2.0 -2.3 -3.1 -3.3 -1.0 -3.2 -7.3 -11.0 -6.0 YoY Revenue 9.6 1.5 9.8 10.2 11.9 18.4 15.8 16.3 8.0 15.5 10.3 Operating profit 25.4 -41.1 59.6 1.7 169.1 222.2 1457.0 40.9 -5.9 145.2 60.0 Note: Differences in the sum of revenue and operating profit of each business and total are attributable to Paul Poiret and consolidation adjustments; 2017F cosmetics earnings are based on our estimates Source: Shinsegae International, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Table 4.
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