DOCSLIB.ORG

Archipelagic Defense Archipelagic Defense the Japan-U.S

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Archipelagic Defense Archipelagic Defense the Japan-U.S Archipelagic Defense Archipelagic Defense Archipelagic Defense The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Preserving Peace and Stability in the Western Pacific The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Preserving Peace and Stability in the Western Pacific and StabilityWestern in the Peace Alliance and Preserving The Japan-U.S. Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. Japan-U.S. Program Archipelagic Defense The Japan-U.S. Alliance and Preserving Peace and Stability in the Western Pacific Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. Table of Contents Acknowledgments .......................................................................................................................4 Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................5 Introduction ...............................................................................................................................10 Why Archipelagic Defense? ...................................................................................10 Limitations of the Enterprise ..................................................................................13 Structure .................................................................................................................14 Chapter 1: Sources of Chinese Behavior .................................................................................16 Economic Growth: A Weakening Pillar .................................................................16 Nationalism: The Sturdy Pillar ..............................................................................19 China as a Rising Great Power ..............................................................................20 China’s View of the International Order ................................................................21 The China Dream, China’s Actions ........................................................................22 Summary ................................................................................................................26 Chapter 2: China Seeks Regional Hegemony ..........................................................................28 A Powerful China ...................................................................................................28 Informationized Warfare ........................................................................................29 The Western Pacific as the Key Theater of Operations .........................................30 Anti-Access/Area-Denial, Counter-Intervention and Power Projection ................31 Summary ................................................................................................................42 Chapter 3: Sources of Relative Advantage and Weakness .......................................................46 Strategy and the Importance of Asymmetries ........................................................46 Geographic .............................................................................................................46 Geopolitical ............................................................................................................51 Economic ...............................................................................................................52 Demographic ..........................................................................................................53 Temporal ................................................................................................................54 Military...................................................................................................................56 Summary ................................................................................................................60 2 Table of Contents Chapter 4: Archipelagic Defense .............................................................................................62 Archipelagic Defense and Strategy ........................................................................63 Key Planning Assumptions ....................................................................................64 Posture Overview ...................................................................................................67 Summary: Key Elements of Archipelagic Defense ................................................69 Withstanding the Initial Attack ..............................................................................71 The Scouting Competition .....................................................................................73 The Long-Range Strike Competition .....................................................................80 Sea Denial ..............................................................................................................84 Blockade and Commerce Defense .........................................................................89 Concentration and Counteroffensive......................................................................93 Gray Zone Aggression ...........................................................................................97 Chapter 5: Implementing Archipelagic Defense ....................................................................102 Strategy ................................................................................................................102 Geopolitics ...........................................................................................................105 Selected Cost Imposition Capabilities .................................................................106 Economic and Protracted Warfare........................................................................108 Infrastructure ........................................................................................................109 Military.................................................................................................................110 Summary ..............................................................................................................111 Conclusion ..............................................................................................................................114 List of Acronyms .....................................................................................................................116 3 Acknowledgments The author would like to thank Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Koichiro Bansho, Maj. Gen. John Ferrari, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Masayuki Hironaka, Adm. (Ret.) John Harvey, Capt. (Ret.) Karl Hasslinger, Nobukatsu Kanehara, Eric Lindsey, Andrew Marshall, Barry Watts, Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Noboru Yamaguchi, and Vice Adm. (Ret.) Masanori Yoshida for their insights on the subject and for their commenting on draft versions of this study. Thanks are also due to long-standing colleagues Bryan Clark, Robert Martinage, Andrew May, John Stillion, Marin Strmecki, Jim Thomas, Michael Vickers, and Robert Work, to whom I owe an enormous intellectual debt. I am also grateful for the funding support provided by the Sasakawa Peace Foundation, without which this study would not have been possible. I am particularly thankful for the encourage- ment offered by the Foundation’s staff, particularly Ms. Junko Chano, Ms. Aya Murata and Ms. Madoka Kono, and for the fine editorial support provided by Ms. Kim Ashizawa. That said, any shortcomings in this study are the author’s alone. 4 Executive Summary Executive Summary For more than two decades, the Western Pacific has experienced an unprecedented period of peace and prosperity thanks in large measure to the political stability underwritten by the United States. China has arguably been the principal beneficiary of this stability, as reflected in its remarkable economic growth and expanding influence. Far from opposing China’s rise, Japan and the United States have encouraged China to become a responsible stakeholder in an interna- tional system that emphasizes the peaceful resolution of disputes among nations and recognizes the common interest all nations have in the effective functioning of a global economy. Despite the efforts of Tokyo and Washington, however, the Western Pacific has become increas- ingly unstable over the past decade. While North Korea has posed a persistent threat to security in Northeast Asia, a far greater threat to regional peace and harmony exists in the form of a revisionist China, whose expanding territorial claims include Taiwan, much of the South China Sea, and the Senkaku Islands. While China’s leaders profess they are engaged in “peaceful development,” their actions suggest otherwise. Evidence that Beijing’s expansionist aims are not limited to the territory of states along the first island chain can be seen in China’s military buildup, now entering its third decade. Faced with Beijing’s increasingly belligerent actions, many states in the Asia-Pacific region are increasingly looking to the two great Pacific democracies and long-standing allies, Japan and the United States, for leadership. China’s actions present Tokyo and Washington with a strategic choice: either accommodate Chinese hegemonic aspirations or take steps to preserve the international order that has provided an extended period of peace and prosperity in the Western Pacific. This study argues for the latter course, the core element of which centers on deterring Beijing from engaging in acts of aggression or coercion against its neighbors, principally those states along the first island chain. The military posture to accomplish this is presented under the
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Cyber Warfare a “Nuclear Option”?
    CYBER WARFARE A “NUCLEAR OPTION”? ANDREW F. KREPINEVICH CYBER WARFARE: A “NUCLEAR OPTION”? BY ANDREW KREPINEVICH 2012 © 2012 Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. All rights reserved. About the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments The Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments (CSBA) is an independent, nonpartisan policy research institute established to promote innovative thinking and debate about national security strategy and investment options. CSBA’s goal is to enable policymakers to make informed decisions on matters of strategy, secu- rity policy and resource allocation. CSBA provides timely, impartial, and insight- ful analyses to senior decision makers in the executive and legislative branches, as well as to the media and the broader national security community. CSBA encour- ages thoughtful participation in the development of national security strategy and policy, and in the allocation of scarce human and capital resources. CSBA’s analysis and outreach focus on key questions related to existing and emerging threats to US national security. Meeting these challenges will require transforming the national security establishment, and we are devoted to helping achieve this end. About the Author Dr. Andrew F. Krepinevich, Jr. is the President of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, which he joined following a 21-year career in the U.S. Army. He has served in the Department of Defense’s Office of Net Assessment, on the personal staff of three secretaries of defense, the National Defense Panel, the Defense Science Board Task Force on Joint Experimentation, and the Defense Policy Board. He is the author of 7 Deadly Scenarios: A Military Futurist Explores War in the 21st Century and The Army and Vietnam.
    [Show full text]
  • The Revolution in Military Affairs: Prospects and Cautions
    THE REVOLUTION IN MILITARY AFFAIRS: PROSPECTS AND CAUTIONS Earl H. Tilford, Jr. June 23, 1995 ******* The views expressed in this report are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the Department of the Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government. This report is cleared for public release; distribution is unlimited. ******* Comments pertaining to this report are invited and should be forwarded to: Director, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College, Carlisle Barracks, PA 17013-5050. Comments also may be conveyed directly to the author by calling commercial (717) 245-4086 or DSN 242-4086. LL FOREWORD The current Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) is taking place against the background of a larger historical watershed involving the end of the Cold War and the advent of what Alvin and Heidi Toffler have termed "the Information Age." In this essay, Dr. Earl Tilford argues that RMAs are driven by more than breakthrough technologies, and that while the technological component is important, a true revolution in the way military institutions organize, equip and train for war, and in the way war is itself conducted, depends on the confluence of political, social, and technological factors. After an overview of the dynamics of the RMA, Dr. Tilford makes the case that interservice rivalry and a reintroduction of the managerial ethos, this time under the guise of total quality management (TQM), may be the consequences of this revolution. In the final analysis, warfare is quintessentially a human endeavor. Technology and technologically sophisticated weapons are only means to an end.
    [Show full text]
  • Scouting, Signaling, and Gatekeeping: Chinese Naval Operations in Japanese Waters and the International Law Implications
    U.S. Naval War College U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons CMSI Red Books China Maritime Studies Institute 2-2009 Scouting, Signaling, and Gatekeeping: Chinese Naval Operations in Japanese Waters and the International Law Implications Peter A. Dutton Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/cmsi-red-books Recommended Citation Dutton, Peter, "Scouting, Signaling, and Gatekeeping: Chinese Naval Operations in Japanese Waters and the International Law Implications" (2009). CMSI Red Books, Study No. 2. This Book is brought to you for free and open access by the China Maritime Studies Institute at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in CMSI Red Books by an authorized administrator of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE CHINA MARITIME STUDIES Number 2 Scouting, Signaling, and Gatekeeping Chinese Naval Operations in Japanese Waters and the International Law Implications ISBN: 978-1-884733-60-4 Peter Dutton 9 781884 733604 Scouting, Signaling, and Gatekeeping Chinese Naval Operations in Japanese Waters and the International Law Implications Peter Dutton CHINA MARITIME STUDIES INSTITUTE U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE NEWPORT, RHODE ISLAND www.usnwc.edu/cnws/cmsi/default.aspx Naval War College The China Maritime Studies are extended research projects Newport, Rhode Island that the editor, the Dean of Naval Warfare Studies, and the Center for Naval Warfare Studies President of the Naval War College consider of particular China Maritime Study No. 2 interest to policy makers, scholars, and analysts. February 2009 Correspondence concerning the China Maritime Studies may be addressed to the director of the China Maritime President, Naval War College Studies Institute, www.usnwc.edu/cnws/cmsi/default.aspx.
    [Show full text]
  • For Immediate Release
    FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE WEST POINT ASSOCIATION OF GRADUATES ANNOUNCES 2020 DISTINGUISHED GRADUATE AWARD RECIPIENTS WEST POINT, NY: March 5, 2020 – The West Point Association of Graduates (WPAOG) has named the 2020 recipients of the Distinguished Graduate Award. This annual award has been bestowed upon those West Point graduates whose character, distinguished service and stature draw wholesome comparison to the qualities for which West Point strives, in keeping with its motto: “Duty, Honor, Country.” The awards will be presented in a ceremony at West Point on May 19, 2020. The 2020 Distinguished Graduate Award Recipients are: Richard A. Nowak ’64 – Many know Richard “Dick” Nowak as an All-American two-way Army football player, a two-time Hammond Award winner (team’s top lineman), and the captain of the 1963 squad. But, as Scott Beaty ’73, President of the West Point Society of North Texas, says, “After his distinguished athletic career, his passion for excellence has been evident in everything he has done.” Nowak completed Ranger School, served in combat in Vietnam with the 1st Infantry Division, and completed his service on the USMA staff and faculty. After leaving the Army in 1971 as a captain, Nowak went to work as a personnel manager for Martin Marietta Co. and later completed an MBA at the University of Denver. He then rose through the corporate ranks, currently serving as Chief Operating Officer of Standard Industries, the largest roofing materials and waterproofing manufacturer in the world, innovating industry changes during his tenure. Throughout this time, Nowak never forgot his local West Point Society (North Texas), the West Point Association of Graduates, or his class.
    [Show full text]
  • China's Expanding Ability to Conduct Conventional Missile Strikes on Guam
    May 10, 2016 China’s Expanding Ability to Conduct Conventional Missile Strikes on Guam Jordan Wilson, Policy Analyst, Security and Foreign Affairs Acknowledgments: The author thanks Kendrick Kuo, Mark Stokes, and Toshi Yoshihara for their reviews of early drafts. These reviews do not imply any endorsement of this report’s contents, and any errors should be attributed solely to the author. Disclaimer: This paper is the product of professional research performed by staff of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, and was prepared at the request of the Commission to support its deliberations. Posting of the report to the Commission’s website is intended to promote greater public understanding of the issues addressed by the Commission in its ongoing assessment of U.S.- China economic relations and their implications for U.S. security, as mandated by Public Law 106-398 and Public Law 113-291. However, the public release of this document does not necessarily imply an endorsement by the Commission, any individual Commissioner, or the Commission’s other professional staff, of the views or conclusions expressed in this staff research report. Table of Contents Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................................3 Introduction ................................................................................................................................................................4 Freedom of Action, U.S. Presence,
    [Show full text]
  • China's Global Naval Strategy and Expanding Force Structure
    Naval War College Review Volume 72 Article 4 Number 1 Winter 2019 2019 Asia Rising: China’s Global Naval Strategy and Expanding Force Structure James E. Fanell Follow this and additional works at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review Recommended Citation Fanell, James E. (2019) "Asia Rising: China’s Global Naval Strategy and Expanding Force Structure," Naval War College Review: Vol. 72 : No. 1 , Article 4. Available at: https://digital-commons.usnwc.edu/nwc-review/vol72/iss1/4 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Naval War College Review by an authorized editor of U.S. Naval War College Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Fanell: Asia Rising: China’s Global Naval Strategy and Expanding Force St CHINA’S GLOBAL NAVAL STRATEGY AND EXPANDING FORCE STRUCTURE Pathway to Hegemony James E. Fanell This article is derived from Captain Fanell’s testimony at the hearing before the U.S. House of Representatives Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on May 17, 2018. The full text of his original testimony more forcefully reflects his admonitions to the committee, and it is available online at https://intelligence.house.gov/uploadedfiles/james_e._fanell_hpsci _testimony_-_final_-_17may18.pdf. hina’s unilateral expansion into and through the international waters within the first island chain—or what Beijing now calls China’s Blue Territories— Cover the past six years has altered
    [Show full text]
  • China's A2AD and Its Geographic Perspective
    China’s A2AD and Its Geographic Perspective Si-Fu Ou Research Fellow, Institute of National Defense and Strategy Studies, and Adjunct Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute of Future Studies, Tamkang University Abstract Washington’s and Beijing’s access and anti-access strategies are constructed on the basis of two island chains. In order to countervail a rising China, the essence of the U.S. Asia pivot is reviving again the geopolitics of the Western Pacific. The term of A2AD is a Western terminology and its approximation in the Chinese strategic concept is China’s active strategic counterattacks on exterior lines (ASCEL) and today China’s A2AD capabilities have increased dramatically. China’s missile arsenal constitutes severe threats to its neighboring countries, and its surface warships and submarines have frequently penetrated the Ryukyu Islands. Due to its position in the center of the first island chain, Taiwan is of great geostrategic importance. It is the cork that keeps the Chinese naval and air forces bottled up within the China Sea. One simple option for the U.S. and its partner nations to counter Beijing’s increasing military strength is to boost their own version of A2AD capability. Taiwan should reshape its force structure with a strategy of asymmetry, combat credibility and resilience, as well as cooperating with the U.S. Asia pivot. Key words: A2AD, ASCEL, ASBM, island chains, Miyako Strait 81 82 亞太研究論壇第 60 期 2014.12 I. Introduction When the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) launched threatening war games off Taiwan nearly two decades ago on the eve of a presidential election on this island, the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • WHY TAIWAN MATTERS by June Teufel Dreyer June Teufel Dreyer, Senior Fellow in FPRI’S Asia Program, Is a Professor of Political Science at the University of Miami
    Foreign Policy Research Institute E-Notes A Catalyst for Ideas Distributed via Email and Posted at www.fpri.org July 2011 WHY TAIWAN MATTERS By June Teufel Dreyer June Teufel Dreyer, Senior Fellow in FPRI’s Asia Program, is a professor of political science at the University of Miami. The eighth edition of her book China’s Political System: Modernization and Tradition has just been published. This E-Note is the text of her testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs, June 16, 2011. The current state of U.S.-Taiwan relations leaves much to be desired. A recent analysis describes the island’s narrowing options, tracing a trajectory toward absorption by China. Given a continuation of current trends, it is difficult to disagree with this conclusion. It is my belief that U.S. actions bear a large measure of responsibility for this drift, and that for two major reasons—first, to ensure its national security and maintain regional peace; and second, to remain true to its own founding beliefs, the United States must make efforts to reverse this drift. With regard to the first of these factors, the Chinese military has been a focus of my research efforts for the past several decades. In this capacity, I regularly read military journals from the People’s Republic of China (PRC) dealing with defense matters. The militant tone of the articles contained therein is striking, as is the way Chinese strategists view Taiwan—not as an end in itself, a terra irredenta that must be possessed, but as a stepping stone for reaching China’s larger goals of controlling the regional sea lanes and beyond.
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report
    5 ft 10 ft 15 ft 20 ft 2016 ANNUAL REPORT 1667 K Street NW | Suite 900 | Washington, DC 20006 | (202) 331-7990 | Fax: (202) 331-8019 www.csbaonline.org STRATEGY | POLICY | BUDGET 5 ft 10 ft 15 ft 20 ft MESSAGE FROM THE CHAIRMAN OF THE BOARD authoritative analyses that the General Counsel for Evercore, informed the decisions of a premier independent investment this country’s senior leaders banking advisory firm in New York in both the executive and City. Ms. Barbara Humpton serves legislative branches. One as the President and Chief Executive example reaffirming CSBA’s Officer of Siemens Government important contributions is Technologies, Inc., a leading inte- that Secretary of Defense grator of Siemens’ innovative prod- Mattis read Preserving the ucts, technologies, and services Balance: A U.S. Eurasia for programs and requirements at Defense Strategy on the federal government agencies and first official trip of his departments. These individuals tenure. We continue to be have such a varied background and involved both at home and a reputation for making signifi- abroad in informing the cant contributions to securing this policy discussion, framing country’s national interests. There alternative policy directions is no doubt that their interests and and providing expert assessments of involvement will help strengthen LAST YEAR PRESENTED A VERY the current situation. This is CSBA’s CSBA’s reputation as a leading dynamic national security environ- core competency, and our growth in center for national security thought. ment. China challenged regional the past year has added depth to our security with their controver- extraordinary team.
    [Show full text]
  • Challenges for the PLAN in the Western Pacific: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance by TETSUO KOTANI
    Challenges for the PLAN in the Western Pacific: Implications for the U.S.-Japan Alliance BY TETSUO KOTANI hina is further developing its anti- missile deployed on the newest the Luyang access/area-denial (A2/AD) III-class destroyers, Song/Yuan-class diesel capabilities, particularly its attack, and the Shang-class nuclear-powered C submarine fleet and cruise missiles attack submarines. 2 The PLAN has also launched from land-based aircraft, to defeat improved its aviation fleet for early warning an approaching enemy fleet. In addition to and surveillance and expanded operational developing A2/AD capabilities, the People’s areas into the high seas toward the second Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is making island chain. concerted efforts to become a blue water navy. However, the PLAN faces some But these island chains do not necessarily difficult challenges—both geographical and constitute a defensive barrier for China since operational—in becoming an ocean-going they are controlled by U.S. allies. At the same navy. This paper considers the challenges time, the PLAN needs to expand its activities the PLAN faces in the open ocean and the beyond the first island chain to expand the implications of these challenges for U.S.- reach of its A2/AD capabilities and defend Japan alliance cooperation. Chinese sea lines of communication. The PLAN has a total of nine exits to the open PLAN’s Nine Exits to the Open Ocean ocean (see graphic on page 2).3 Since the Pacific Ocean is quite vast, the Since 2008, China’s naval activities have many islands in the region have strong become highly intense in the East China Sea implications for Asian geopolitics.
    [Show full text]
  • BEYOND the SAN HAI the Challenge of China’S Blue-Water Navy
    MAY 2017 BEYOND THE SAN HAI The Challenge of China’s Blue-Water Navy Dr. Patrick M. Cronin, Dr. Mira Rapp-Hooper, Harry Krejsa, Alex Sullivan, and Rush Doshi CNAS Celebrating 10 Years About the Authors DR. PATRICK M. CRONIN is a Senior RUSH DOSHI is a Raymond Vernon Fellow in Advisor and Senior Director of the Asia- Harvard’s PhD program in government. His Pacific Security Program at the Center doctoral work focuses on explaining variation for a New American Security (CNAS). in Chinese post–Cold War Grand Strategy. Previously, he was the Senior Director of Mr. Doshi’s research interests include Chinese the Institute for National Strategic Studies and Indian foreign policy (he is proficient in (INSS) at the National Defense University, Mandarin and Hindi), and his work has been where he simultaneously oversaw the Center for the Study printed in The Wall Street Journal and other publications. Mr. of Chinese Military Affairs. Dr. Cronin has a rich and diverse Doshi previously was an analyst at Long Term Strategy Group, background in both Asia-Pacific security and U.S. defense, where he focused on Asia-Pacific security issues; prior to that, foreign, and development policy. Prior to leading INSS, Dr. he researched international economic issues as an analyst at Cronin served as the Director of Studies at the London- Rock Creek Global Advisors, consulted for the Office of the based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Secretary of Defense, participated in studies at the Naval War Before joining IISS, Dr. Cronin was Senior Vice President College, and was an Arthur Liman Fellow at the Department and Director of Research at the Center for Strategic of State.
    [Show full text]
  • The Chinese People's Liberation Army in 2025
    The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025 The Chinese People’s The Chinese People’s Liberation Army in 2025 FOR THIS AND OTHER PUBLICATIONS, VISIT US AT http://www.carlisle.army.mil/ U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE David Lai Roy Kamphausen Editors: Editors: UNITED STATES Roy Kamphausen ARMY WAR COLLEGE PRESS David Lai This Publication SSI Website USAWC Website Carlisle Barracks, PA and The United States Army War College The United States Army War College educates and develops leaders for service at the strategic level while advancing knowledge in the global application of Landpower. The purpose of the United States Army War College is to produce graduates who are skilled critical thinkers and complex problem solvers. Concurrently, it is our duty to the U.S. Army to also act as a “think factory” for commanders and civilian leaders at the strategic level worldwide and routinely engage in discourse and debate concerning the role of ground forces in achieving national security objectives. The Strategic Studies Institute publishes national security and strategic research and analysis to influence policy debate and bridge the gap between military and academia. The Center for Strategic Leadership and Development CENTER for contributes to the education of world class senior STRATEGIC LEADERSHIP and DEVELOPMENT leaders, develops expert knowledge, and provides U.S. ARMY WAR COLLEGE solutions to strategic Army issues affecting the national security community. The Peacekeeping and Stability Operations Institute provides subject matter expertise, technical review, and writing expertise to agencies that develop stability operations concepts and doctrines. U.S. Army War College The Senior Leader Development and Resiliency program supports the United States Army War College’s lines of SLDR effort to educate strategic leaders and provide well-being Senior Leader Development and Resiliency education and support by developing self-awareness through leader feedback and leader resiliency.
    [Show full text]