4th year Software Engineering MEng project A SET-BY-SET ANALYSIS METHOD FOR PREDICTING THE OUTCOME OF PROFESSIONAL SINGLES TENNIS MATCHES June 17, 2012 Agnieszka M. Madurska
[email protected] Imperial College London, Department of Computing Supervised by Dr William Knottenbelt Agnieszka Magda Madurska • A set-by-set analysis method for predicting page 2 of 98 the outcome of professional singles tennis matches Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to thank Dr. William Knottenbelt for his supervision throughout this project. He has supported it with great enthusiasm and patience, providing knowledge and motivation in times of trouble. Alike, Dr. Uli Harder, the second marker for this paper, has been a source of valuable and insightful feedback. I would also like to thank my family, as well as my partner, for being extremely supportive and understanding throughout the past months. I would not have been able to complete this thesis without them. Agnieszka Magda Madurska • A set-by-set analysis method for predicting page 3 of 98 the outcome of professional singles tennis matches Agnieszka Magda Madurska • A set-by-set analysis method for predicting page 4 of 98 the outcome of professional singles tennis matches Abstract Over the past few years tennis and mathematical tennis modelling have become extremely popular. Numerous analytical models are evaluated and put into competition against each other both off- and on-line. They are often fuelled by the desire to take advantage of the associated, rapidly growing, financial markets - especially connected with betting. It is not rare to see millions of pounds being involved in bets for a single professional tennis match.