A MODERNIZATION PLAN FOR ’S METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

© Copyright MDA Information Systems LLC, 2013 All Rights Reserved Submitted as the Final Report of the Feasibility Study for the Uganda Department of Modernization, funded by the United States Trade and Development Agency.

Larry Heitkemper Vice President, EarthSat Weather Services [email protected] 240.833.8237

Dr. Daniel Kirk-Davidoff Chief Scientist for Weather and Services [email protected] 240.833.8242

Clarence S. Haynes James Henderson Leslie Lemon George H. Obua Ronald F. Price

TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ...... 4 Introduction ...... 4 Present Operational Status ...... 4 A Roadmap to Modernization ...... 5 Financing ...... 6 Findings and Recommendations ...... 8 Acknowledgements ...... 8 1 Introduction ...... 10 2 Climate of Uganda ...... 11 2.1 Precipitation Variability ...... 11 2.2 Temperature variability ...... 11 2.3 Air Pollution ...... 12 3 Economic and Socioeconomic Analysis ...... 24 4 Inventory of Current Systems and Facilities ...... 26 4.1 Review of Uganda’s Meteorology Station Network...... 29 4.2 Staffing at Meteorological Stations ...... 40 4.3 Key Observational Deficiencies ...... 41 4.4 Role of the National Weather Center ...... 46 4.5 Civil Aviation in Uganda ...... 47 4.6 Uganda’s International Responsibilities/Obligations with Respect to Weather Data ...... 51 4.7 Summary and Implications for Future Analysis and Recommendations ...... 52 5 Equipment and Facility Requirements ...... 58 5.1 National Sensor Network ...... 58 5.2 Air Pollution ...... 63 5.3 Remote Sensing of Precipitation ...... 65 5.4 Windshear and Turbulence ...... 72 6 Potential U.S. Sources of Supply ...... 74 6.1 Equipment ...... 75 6.2 ...... 75 6.3 ...... 76 6.4 Wind Profilers ...... 76 6.5 Air Pollution, Weather and Soil Temperature/Moisture Sensors ...... 77 6.6 Evapotranspiration Sensors ...... 77 6.7 Automated Weather Observation Systems ...... 78 6.8 Manual Read Meteorological Instruments ...... 78 6.9 Computer Hardware ...... 79 6.10 Training for Weather Sensors, Systems and Radar Applications ...... 79 6.11 Consulting Services ...... 79 6.12 Equipment Maintenance Providers ...... 80 7 Organizational Recommendations ...... 81 7.1 Organizational and Managerial Demands of Modernization ...... 81 7.2 Proposed Organization and Management Structure ...... 81 8 Operational Recommendations ...... 106 8.1 Model-Based Forecasting ...... 106 8.2 Numerical ...... 106 8.3 Hazardous Weather Detection and Nowcasting ...... 107 8.4 Agricultural Forecasting ...... 113 8.5 Meteorological Workstations ...... 114 8.6 Network Communications ...... 118 8.7 Physical Plant ...... 120 8.8 Marketing and Outreach ...... 122 9 Financial Analysis ...... 128 9.1 Introduction ...... 128 9.2 Capital Investment Program (CIP) ...... 128 9.3 Revenue Streams ...... 131 9.4 Expenses ...... 131 9.5 Depreciation Expenses ...... 131 9.6 Capital Sources ...... 131 9.7 Financial Model Results ...... 132 2 820 West Diamond Ave, Suite 300, Gaithersburg, MD 20878 www.mdaus.com

9.8 Sensitivity Analysis ...... 137 9.9 Conclusions ...... 139 10 Financing Options ...... 141 10.1 Introduction ...... 141 10.2 Prospective Funding Sources ...... 142 10.3 Export Credit Agencies (ECA): ...... 146 10.4 Regional Developmental Institutions ...... 147 10.5 Commercial Banking Institutions ...... 149 10.6 Recommendations ...... 151 10.7 Conclusions ...... 153 11 Implementation Plan ...... 155 11.1 Introduction ...... 155 11.2 Modernization Plan Narrative ...... 155 11.3 ICT Infrastructure ...... 157 11.4 Facilities ...... 159 11.5 Leadership ...... 160 12