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Environmental Politics in a Polarized America

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Environmental Politics in a Polarized America: Public Mood and Policy Consequences by Parrish Bergquist Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies & Planning, Department of Political Science in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science and Urban and Regional Planning at the MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY February 2019 ©2019 Parrish Bergquist. All rights reserved. The author hereby grants to MIT permission to reproduce and to distribute publicly paper and electronic copies of this thesis in whole or in part in any medium now known or hereafter created. Author................................................................ Department of Urban Studies & Planning, Department of Political Science January 8, 2019 Certified by. Andrea Campbell Department Head and Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science Thesis Supervisor Certified by. Justin Steil Assistant Professor of Law and Urban Planning Thesis Supervisor Accepted by . Lawrence Vale Chairman, PhD Committee 2 Environmental Politics in a Polarized America: Public Mood and Policy Consequences by Parrish Bergquist Submitted to the Department of Urban Studies & Planning, Department of Political Science on January 8, 2019, in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science and Urban and Regional Planning Abstract As the American political parties have polarized and nationalized, what are the im- plications for environmental policy? This question is particularly important at the state and local levels, where many environmental policy decisions are made and im- plemented, but about which scholars have drawn mixed conclusions. This dissertation enters the debate to expand understanding of the parties’ role in state-level regula- tory enforcement; describe and assess changing public attitudes about environmental protection; and deeply explore local perceptions of an important type of environ- mental disruption: energy infrastructure. I begin by exploring the public basis for environmental protection. In paper one, I estimate state-level public opinion about environmental protection from the late 1970s through 2016. I show that regional differences in public views about environmental protection have declined, whereas state publics have sorted more cleanly into partisan camps in every state. I also find that economic tradeoffs have increased in their importance for shaping Amer- icans’ environmental views. These data provide a crucial foundation for assessing the evolution of the state and national parties’ positions about environmental protec- tion, and exploring the elite rhetoric that may explain the shifting drivers of public environmental preferences. In the second paper, I ask how party control of state gov- ernment institutions influences regulatory enforcement in the U.S. Despite growing evidence for the parties’ influence across the slate of policy issues, scholars have drawn divergent conclusions regarding the parties’ impact on state environmental policy. I apply a regression discontinuity design to assess whether party control of state houses and governors’ mansions causes a meaningful change in Clean Air Act enforcement between 2000 and 2017. The findings suggest that narrowly elected Republican gover- nors and legislative majorities reduce enforcement effort, and that the two branches’ influence differs according to their distinct mechanisms of political control overthe bureaucracy. Paper three moves beyond public attitudes about environmental topics in the abstract to assess local views of one particularly salient environmental topic: energy. Public views of energy technologies are critical to the United States’ energy 3 future, but party and ideology do not contribute much explanatory power in explain- ing Americans’ views of the energy system. I apply a framework rooted in social psychology to explain how sense of place shapes residents’ interpretations and evalu- ations of large-scale energy transmission infrastructure as a threat or an opportunity. Thesis Supervisor: Andrea Campbell Title: Department Head and Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political Science Thesis Supervisor: Justin Steil Title: Assistant Professor of Law and Urban Planning 4 Acknowledgments I feel tremendous gratitude upon submitting this dissertation, because the support of friends, family, colleagues, mentors, and advisors was truly critical to the process. First and foremost, I thank my committee members, who have provided constructive feedback, encouragement, and suggestions throughout. I’m incredibly grateful for their time, patience, energy, encouragement, kindness, critiques, and humor. They have been a joy to work with, and I could not have asked for a better group of mentors. In particular (but in no particular order), I thank: • Chris Warshaw for introducing me to the field of American politics, generously offering time and support even after he left MIT, encouraging me toexpand my substantive and methodological boundaries, being a motivating and fun co- author to work with, always saying thank-you for work that I put in for our project, debriefing the job market, being available when I needed close support, and letting me chug independently when I needed to. Most of all, I thank Chris for helping me think through what to do when Judy Layzer passed away. • Andrea Campbell for supporting me through the restructuring of my PhD, re- organizing some of my ideas back to me, modeling how to do policy-relevant work that advances the discipline, being a kind and inspiring presence in the department, feeding me Thanksgiving dinner during my dissertation and job- market crunch, asking questions that made me think about my work in new ways, and reassuring me that graduate students are also allowed to be humans. • David Konisky for joining my committee at a distance, supporting the quali- tative component of the project, helping me navigate the EPA’s data archive, connecting me with contacts who helped me better understand regulatory en- forcement, providing many helpful reading suggestions and plenty of prompt and detailed feedback on my work, and offering candid and helpful advice. Par- ticularly since David is not employed by my home institution, I am grateful for the time and energy he has invested. • Justin Steil for his persistent encouragement; availability, compassion, and good humor; broad-mindedness about what makes good research; enthusiasm for my ideas; and many great ideas for residential scholar events at Simmons Hall. Justin’s passion for important, problem-driven, human-centered research and meaningful educational experiences has inspired and will continue to inspire me. In addition, I thank: • The Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Martin Family Society of Fellows for Sus- tainability, and MIT’s Departments of Urban Studies & Planning and Political Science, for providing the financial support for the work presented here. 5 • My parents, Greg and Sally Bergquist, for their relentless support, stubborn positivity, and enthusiasm for my research. My incredibly smart, driven, and fun siblings for inspiring and pushing me: Jay for reminding me that “if you don’t sometimes feel like the dumbest person in the room, you’re doing it wrong;” David for Sunday-afternoon phone calls that never failed to lift my spirits; Ann for modeling how to build an impactful career and beautiful family; and Craig, Whitney, and Hope for adding joy, energy, and new perspectives to our family. • Ben Morse, Laura Graham, Ryan Cook, Monica Gerber, Mara Seibert, Gary Chan, Emily Eros, Craig and Tara Aubuchon, Brandon Chalifoux, Helen Ho, Dean Knox, Hannah Waight, Yael Borofsky, Adam Libert, Taylor Thompson, James Novakowski, Cres Simpson, and Hannah Lippe for the ski days, belays, potlucks, bike rides, runs, river walks, porch chats, and phone calls that got me through 5.5 years in Cambridge. • The MIT Outing Club, who taught me how to play outside in the winter, and my climbing, running, and biking partners, because dissertating would be so much harder without social exercise: Michael Reiche, Katherine Eckenfels, Julie Jung, Alec Harris, Chris Saulnier, Colie Pilling, James Turitto, Tzipora Wagner, Evan Williams, Alex Garcia, David Migl, Avilash Cramer, Asha Park-Carter, Steph Plant, and many others. • Friends from other places who may not realize how crucial their support has been to this endeavor. Kate LeTourneau, Andy Lubershane, Cathryn and Jeremy Lapedis, Eric Roberts, and Alex Chewning were here with a group hug when I got to Boston. Katie Long and Lauren Quillian have been steady sources of laughs and encouragement. My original climbing partners in (or scattered from) Washington, DC, always refresh my spirits: Amber Runyon, Jack Willard, Stephanie Kiehart, Voltaire Valle, Genie Ko, Ryan Eubank, Liz Stitzel, Malinda Ruokonen, and Andrew Slawter. • Many wonderful friends and supportive colleagues from both of my departments: Meg Goldberg, Reid Pauly, Natalie Harrington, Phil Martin, Saskia Brechen- macher, Andrew Miller, Sara Zettervall, Tim McDonnell, Jess Schor, Cullen Nutt, Kelly Pasolli, Tugba and Ozgur Bozcaga, Nina McMurry, Clara Vande- weerdt, Weihuang Wong, Nick Dumas, Nick Intscher, Guillermo Toral, Justin De Benedictus Kessner, John Arroyo, Brittany Montgomery, Zack Lamb, Mike Wilson, Nick Kelly, Yasmin Guzman, Jess Gordon, Elise Harrington, and Ella Kim. • Judy Layzer, who lived her best life, helped us better understand environmental politics, and left me with many words
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