Intra-MENA trade and investment flows : Trends and conclusions
Mr. Alexander Böhmer, Head of MENA programme, Private Sector Development, OECD Section 1
INTRA-MENA TRADE FLOWS FEATURES
2 Important and stable increase of intra- MENA trade between 2000-2009
Evolution of intra-MENA merchandise exports, in million of USD 90000 80000 82336 70000 70476 60000 64505 50000 40000 30000 31332
20000 Implementing of GAFTA 15982 10000 agreement 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen ( unavailable data for Djibouti) 3 Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat Main Intra-MENA trade partners
Share of intra-MENA exports in Share of Intra-MENA import in 2009 2009 GCC North Africa Levant Yemen and Irak 4%
16% 18% 48% 18% 18% 60%
18%
Gulf Cooperation Council: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. North Africa: Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia. Levant: Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria. Others : Irak and Yemen (unavailable data for Djibouti) 4 Data Sources: UNCTAD, UNCTADstat Section 2
INTRA-MENA FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENTS
5 Intra -MENA FDI represents non negligeable share of the total amount of FDI in MENA Region
Intra-MENA FDI in percentage of total FDI from the World To MENA
80,0% USD USD 70,0% 73,1%
60,0%
50,0%
40,0% 27,7% 30,0% 24,3% 20,0% 21,0% 20,6%
10,0% Amount of FDI inward million in of Amount FDI inward 0,0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
6 Data sources : The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation 2010 Irregular growth of intra-MENA FDI
Amount of FDI inward in million USD 40 000,00
35 000,00 34 808,49 30 000,00 30 563,38 25 000,00 20 000,00 19 247,60 15 000,00 14 500,24 10 000,00
5 000,00 1 402,80 5 300,70 0,00 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Intra-MENA FDI Inflows (FDI Inward)
Economies: Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestinian Authority, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Tunisia, UAE, Yemen. 7 Data sources: The Arab Investment and Export Credit Guarantee Corporation 2010 Gulf Countries are the first regional investors in Mediterranean region
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
Net amout in million Euros amout Euros million in Net 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 gulf countries 1569 2329 7830 20991 20760 9675 6413 MEd11 1530 300 2200 3000 4700 1100 900 total 3099 2629 10030 23991 25460 10775 7313
Med11 : Algeria, Morocco, Egypt, Israël, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestinian Authority, Syria, Tunisia, Lybia, Turkey Gulf countries: Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE. 8 Source : ANIMA-MIPO But risk classification by OECD ECAs of MENA countries still high
The Country Risk Classification Method classifies countries into eight risk categories (0-7), with 0 being the lowest and 7 being the highest risk category.
Country risk classification for selected MENA countries 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0
OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010 Relative risk classification of MENA compared to other regions
Country risk classification for selected regions 7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0 OECD MENA South Caucasus and Central Asia Ukraine
OECD (2010), Country Risk Classifications of the Participants to the Arrangement on Officially Supported Export Credits, OECD, Paris., as of 22/10/2010 Good news: KSA and Egypt within Top 25
11 MENA: Towards enhanced regional trade and investment frameworks
•Goods: further implementation of GAFTA principles, namely on NTBs
•Services: ongoing liberalisation negotiations with EU and within Arab League
•Investment protection: strengthened regional investment protection frameworks
Regional investment frameworks: the way forward
• Do participants agree that investment frameworks in the region should be strengthened following the strong increase of intra-regional investment and trade flows?
• What is the opinion of the participants on the options to strengthen regional investment frameworks? Would participants agree on further analysing the options and their effectiveness? How could countries contribute to the analysis?
• Would participants agree to present the findings of the analysis to the forthcoming MENA-OECD Steering Group and Ministerial Conference with a view to reach political decision
on the way forward? 13
Thank you for your attention!
Alexander Böhmer Head of Unit MENA-OECD Investment Programme OECD Private Sector Development Division 2 rue André-Pascal, 75016 Paris, France Tel: +33-1 45 24 1912 Fax: +33-1 44 30 6135 Email: [email protected]
For information about the MENA-OECD Programme and its activities, please refer to: www.oecd.org/mena/investment MENA is the second region in the world where Real Estate investors anticipate the better oportunities
Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Strongest Anticipated Real Estate Performance - By Region 2010 Performance - MENA
Eastern Europe South America Western Europe Oman Bahrain Kuwait Africa North America Middle East North Africa Levant Qatar Asia Pacific UAE Dubai UAE Abu Dhabi Saudi Arabia
2% 2%
4% 8% 4%
9% 26% 6%
7% 44% 7%
9% 7%
26% 16% 23%
15 Sources: Investor Sentiment Survey-Middle East & North Africa – October 2010- Jones Lang Lassale Dubai and Abu Dhabi are the best perceived place for investment
Preferred choices for future investment in MENA in 2010 30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0% Dubai Abu Dhabi Egypt Oman Bahrain Jordan Lebanon Qatar
Sources : Investing in a Rebond. The 2010 AT Kearney FDI Confidence Index 16