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2018 Chinajoy: China Remains an Important Market

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2018 Chinajoy: China Remains an Important Market Game Overweight (Maintain) 2018 ChinaJoy: China remains an important market We recently attended ChinaJoy, the world’s biggest gaming expo, which was held from August 3rd to 6th in Shanghai this year Issue Comment There are still no signs of a resumption in service licenses to Korean companies; the only August 7, 2018 notable exhibition this year was the demonstration of PearlAbyss’ Black Desert PC Focus on companies advancing into overseas markets outside of China and those with strong development capabilities in both mobile and PC/console games Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., [Internet/Game/Advertising] Korean games have smaller presence at this year’s ChinaJoy Jee-hyun Moon rd +822-3774-1640 This year’s ChinaJoy, the world’s biggest gaming expo, was held in Shanghai from August 3 th [email protected] to 6 . As of 2018, China’s gaming market is estimated at W26tr, accounting for 20% of the global market. In 2019, China’s market is expected to grow to W29tr, overtaking the US as the world’s biggest gaming market. Reflecting China’s ascent, this year’s ChinaJoy was the largest in its history, featuring an additional B2C hall and B2B hall, compared with last year. However, Korean games and companies appeared to have a smaller presence at this year’s event. This is mainly because China suspended granting service licenses to Korean games in March 2017. The demonstration of PearlAbyss’ Black Desert PC was notable, but overall, the exhibition of Korean games was smaller, compared with last year. We are beginning to witness some changes in Korean game companies’ overseas business strategies. Many companies are no longer passively waiting for the Chinese market to reopen; instead, they are proactively seeking growth opportunities by exporting games to other markets, like Japan, Taiwan, and North America/Europe. It is also worth noting that the ongoing slowdown in momentum across domestic game companies has more to do with delays in new domestic releases than the absence of the Chinese market. Looking ahead, if China resumes the issuance of service licenses, we believe this will serve as an “added” boost to earnings. Table 1. Korean companies at 2018 ChinaJoy Company Chinese publisher Presence Pearl Abyss Snail Games Demonstrated Black Desert (PC); waiting for a resumption in service license NCsoft 37Games Introduced a Lineage II-based web game Webzen 37Wan Introduced a MU-based mobile game Gravity Tencent Introduced Ragnarok Mobile (MMORPG) as a 2019 lineup Smilegate Tencent Displayed Crossfire Nexon Tencent Celebrated the 10-year anniversary of Dungeon Fighter’s Chinese service Tiancity Demonstrated Counter-Strike Online and DomiNations Shanda Games Offered interesting events for Crazy Arcade BnB and MapleStory Mounted brand promotions and held meetings with Chinese game Kakao Games companies in B2B hall 28 mobile game companies, six VR game companies, and one HTML5 game Korea Pavilion company participated Source: KOCCA, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the U.S. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 7, 2018 Game Table 2. Korean companies are proactively seeking growth opportunities by exporting games to markets other than China, like Japan, Taiwan, and North America/Europe Pending a resumption in Company Non-China exports service licenses by China Lineage II Revolution Japan: Lineage II Revolution, The King of Fighters All Star, Seven Netmarble (Tencent) Deadly Sins, Yo-kai Watch Medal Wars Blade & Soul Revolution Taiwan/Hong Kong: Lineage II Revolution, StoneAge M (Tencent) North America/Europe: Harry Porter Hogwarts Mystery, Firstborn, PhantomGate Lineage Red Knights (Alpha NCsoft Taiwan: Lineage M Games) Black Desert PC (Snail Pearl Abyss Taiwan, Japan, North America/Europe: Black Desert (mobile) Games) Com2uS North America/Europe: Skylanders Ring of Heroes NHN Entertainment Japan: Fantasy Life 2, Monogatari Note: Only major games (including those not yet released) are listed Source: Company data, media outlets, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 1. 2018 ChinaJoy: Eight B2C halls, four B2B halls, and two e-smart halls Source: ChinaJoy, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 2. Pearl Abyss’ Black Desert (PC): Demonstrated at Figure 3. NCsoft’s Lineage II-based game: Introduced at Snail Games’ booth 37Games’ booth Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 7, 2018 Game Figure 4. Nexon’s Dungeon Fighter: Displayed at Tencent’s Figure 5. Nexon’s Counter-Strike Online: Demonstrated at booth Tiancity’s booth Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 7. Gravity’s Ragnarok Mobile (MMORPG): To be Figure 6. Smilegate’s Crossfire: Displayed at Tencent’s booth published by Tencent Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 8. Kakao Games: Mounted brand promotions and held Figure 9. Korea Pavilion: Last year, China did not allow use of meetings with Chinese game companies in B2B hall the name ‘Korea’ at the Pavilion Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 3 August 7, 2018 Game China: A strategically important market that cannot be ignored China’s gaming market: China’s gaming market makes up 20% of the global market as of 2018 and is expected to overtake the US as the world’s biggest gaming market in 2019. In particular, with console video games starting to gain traction since last year, China’s console platform game market is expected to display the fastest growth over the next five years, at 59% CAGR. But the mobile gaming market remains the biggest platform by far, estimated at W16tr as of 2018. The second biggest platform is the PC gaming market, at W8tr. Korean game companies: Major Korean game companies are currently focusing their development on mobile titles. That said, NCsoft (036570 KS/Buy/TP: W500,000/CP: W370500), PearlAbyss (263750 KQ/Buy/TP: W280,000/CP: 225,100), and Bluehole (Unlisted) still have development capabilities in PC games and have recently switched to a strategy of simultaneously developing PC games and their console versions. Considering the composition of China’s gaming market, we think mobile game development competitiveness will remain highly relevant. Among Korean companies, mobile-oriented developers include Netmarble (251270 KS/Trading Buy/TP: W170,000/CP: W144,500) and Com2uS (078340 KQ/Buy/TP: W240,000/CP: W155,300). Also, given the robustness of China’s PC game market and the strong growth outlook for console games, we believe companies with strong development capabilities in both mobile and PC/console games will attract increasing attention. Domestic names with experience in developing across different platforms (mobile, PC, and console) include NCsoft and PearlAbyss. Figure 10. China’s gaming market makes up 20% of global Figure 11. Game exports to China have halted, while game market (7% for Korea) imports from China have surged Latin America (Units) 2% 120 Import of Chinese games to Korea 111 China Export of Korean games to China 20% EMEA 100 27% 80 2018 Korea Global game market 7% 60 W128tr 40 25 Japan 20 13% North America 6 23% Other Asia 0 -Pacific 0 8% 1Q17 2Q17-4Q17 Source: PwC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: KOCCA, State Administration of Press, Publication, Radio, Film and Television, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Figure 12. Chinese gaming market growth by platform: Figure 13. Korean gaming market growth by platform: PC > Console > mobile > PC + e sports mobile > console + e sports (Wtr) China (Wtr) Korea 40 PC: Next 5-yr CAGR +7% market: 16 PC: Next 5-yr CAGR +7% Mobile App: +10% Next 5-yr Mobile App: +4% market: Console: +59% CAGR +10% Console: +2% Next 5-yr Web: 0% Web: -2% CAGR +6% 30 e-sports: +18% 12 e-sports: +10% 20 8 10 4 0 0 13 14 15 16 17 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F 13 14 15 16 17 18F 19F 20F 21F 22F Note: CAGR (compound annual growth rate) Note: CAGR (compound annual growth rate) Source: PWC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Source: PWC, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 August 7, 2018 Game Weak share performance for major Chinese game companies Chinese game companies: YTD, major Chinese game companies have exhibited relatively weak share performances. Shares of Tencent (0700 HK/CP: HKD353.4), the world’s no.1 game publisher, have declined 10% YTD; despite upward revisions to 2018F EPS consensus (short-term), we think the slower growth of the firm’s game revenue has sparked concerns over growth potential. China’s game market posted 30%-level YoY growth through 2014 and its growth remained in the 20% range from 2015 through 2017. However, its growth is projected to slow to 10% levels (18%) in 2018, with the next five-year CAGR estimated at 10%. We believe that the slower growth of the game market as a whole and lack of new title momentum have been weighing on shares of Chinese game companies. Potential upside catalysts for the shares include growth of new platform revenue (e.g., console games), and increases in new titles in the pipeline of top-tier publishers. Korean game companies: In 2018, shares of Korean game companies have also been weighed down by the fatigue that followed 2017’s sharp mobile market growth, intensifying domestic market competition and delays to new title launches. Indeed, Netmarble shares have suffered a YTD decline of 25%. Meanwhile, shares of Com2uS have been holding up well, rising 11% YTD, as the firm has been relatively free from issues dragging on the Korean game market, such as delays to new title releases and THAAD headwinds (revenue mix towards the North American and European markets).
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