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Investigating the Impact of Recovery Aid on Migration Status As Brigham Young University BYU ScholarsArchive Faculty Publications 2020-01-10 To move home or move on? Investigating the impact of recovery aid on migration status as a potential tool for disaster risk reduction in the aftermath of volcanic eruptions in Merapi, Indonesia Jonathan A. Muir The Ohio State University Michael R. Cope Brigham Young University - Provo, [email protected] Leslie R. Angeningish Institute of Community Development Jorden E. Jackson Brigham Young University - Provo Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/facpub Part of the Migration Studies Commons BYU ScholarsArchive Citation Muir, Jonathan A.; Cope, Michael R.; Angeningish, Leslie R.; and Jackson, Jorden E., "To move home or move on? Investigating the impact of recovery aid on migration status as a potential tool for disaster risk reduction in the aftermath of volcanic eruptions in Merapi, Indonesia" (2020). Faculty Publications. 4082. https://scholarsarchive.byu.edu/facpub/4082 This Peer-Reviewed Article is brought to you for free and open access by BYU ScholarsArchive. It has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Publications by an authorized administrator of BYU ScholarsArchive. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 46 (2020) 101478 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction journal homepage: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr To move home or move on? Investigating the impact of recovery aid on migration status as a potential tool for disaster risk reduction in the aftermath of volcanic eruptions in Merapi, Indonesia Jonathan A. Muir a,*, Michael R. Cope b, Leslie R. Angeningsih c, Jorden E. Jackson b a The Ohio State University, USA b Brigham Young University, USA c Institute of Community Development "APMD", USA ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT Keywords: Disasters are associated strongly with forced migration. Indeed, migration is a standard survival strategy for Disasters those facing disruptions of this kind. Such is the case with Mt. Merapi, Indonesia, where a series of eruptions Internal displacement occurred in 2010. Mechanisms related to forced migration in such scenarios are fairly well understood, yet it Migration remains less clear what factors may influence return migration. Given local interest in facilitating resettlement Recovery aid out of hazardous areas as a means of risk reduction, our objective in this study is to explore the extent to which And risk reduction recovery aid may create incentives for households to move on rather than move home. Specifically, we explore whether the influence of recovery aid varied by whether it was: financial vs. another type of aid; provided by a government agency or NGO versus a social network; and/or distributed with other types of recovery aid. We use data from a cross-sectional pilot study and multinomial logistic regression models to explore the influenceof aid on migration status. Of the various forms of aid considered, financial recovery aid was consistently associated with moving on. The combination of financial recovery aid with remittances resulted in an association with having moved on that was even stronger than just receiving financial recovery aid. Ultimately, analyses of “aid packages” suggest that a combination of aid was relatively more effective in fostering resettlement, suggesting that while other forms of aid may not have been sufficient to increase resettlement by themselves, they may enhance the effect of financial recovery aid. 1. Introduction homes/buildings were destroyed, and 383 people were killed. Because disasters from natural hazards are associated with high risks Between October 26th and November 5th, 2010, a series of violent to both life and property [1,2], they are often associated strongly with volcanic eruptions impacted the region surrounding Mt. Merapi in forced migration [3–6]; either as a temporary evacuation or as a forced Central Java, Indonesia. Over time, these eruptions culminated in migration of longer duration. Indeed, migration, whether temporary or repeated discharges of ash and lava, as well as the formation of large permanent, is a standard survival strategy for those facing disruptions of eruption columns that sent several pyroclastic flows into heavily this kind [4]. Such is the case with Mt. Merapi where a major eruption populated areas located along the slopes of the volcano. The seismic occurs every 4–5 years. However, despite the well-known danger, the activity was accompanied by heavy rainfall that produced highly area surrounding the mountain remains densely populated. More sur­ destructive lahars. The scale of the 2010 Mt. Merapi eruptions exceeded prisingly, it is also the site of frequent return migrations as households that of the 1872 Mt. Merapi eruption, previously the largest eruption on persist in returning to their original communities once the dangers record for this volcano. Prior to the onset of these eruptions, the Indo­ associated with an eruption have subsided [7–10]. Anticipating that nesian government raised its alert to its highest level and issued evac­ patterns of return migration increases the risk for future disaster events uation orders that affected 19,000 people. In total, however, it is in the area surrounding Mt. Merapi, the Indonesian disaster manage­ estimated that approximately 400,000 people were displaced, 3300 ment agency “Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana” (BNPB) * Corresponding author. E-mail address: [email protected] (J.A. Muir). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101478 Received 30 April 2019; Received in revised form 19 July 2019; Accepted 3 January 2020 Available online 10 January 2020 2212-4209/© 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. J.A. Muir et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 46 (2020) 101478 conducted a risk assessment of the area and thereafter endeavored to [1,4,5,27–30]. Hugo addressed these ideas and maintained that in the reorganize residential areas for the purpose of hazard mitigation [8]. context of disasters, migration is probably viewed best on a continuum With this goal in mind, the distribution of recovery assistance to victims that ranges from totally voluntary migration–in which choice is the of the disaster was organized in part to create incentives for households decisive element that encourages people to move–to completely forced to resettle out of hazardous areas. migration, where the migrants are faced with death if they remain in Our objective in this study is to explore the extent to which recovery their present place of residence [4]. The extent to which a migration is aid was associated with households resettling away from their original more or less forced depends upon the severity of the hazard, perceptions community. Drawing on survey data collected from a cross-sectional of risk tied to the hazard [31], and the response of macro-level actors, pilot study in the geographic area surrounding Mt. Merapi after the such as government and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) [1,4, 2010 volcanic eruptions, we explore the extent to which various forms of 32]. Given that forced migration is by definition less voluntary recovery aid were associated with migration status, particularly that of compared to general migration [33], some indicators that weigh heavily respondents indicating that they had subsequently resettled or moved on. in general migration theory (e.g., gender and age) are not always sig- Specifically, we explore whether the influence of a given type of re- nificantand other indicators (e.g., socioeconomic status) may operate in covery aid varied by whether it was: reverse [33]. This is particularly the case when the severity of the disaster is such that entire populations are forced to migrate. However, 1. Financial vs. other types of aid (e.g., distribution of food) the more voluntary the migration, even after a disaster, the more likely it 2. Provided by government bodies or NGOs versus a household’s social will reflect the characteristics of general migrations [1,4]. network Return migration post forced migration requires better understand- 3. Distributed in combination with other types of recovery aid as part of ing [34]. Consistent with general migration theory, prior studies have an “aid package” that include multiple types of aid. found that economic incentives often are associated with the likelihood of return migration [35]. Beyond economic incentives, a systematic re- As an exploratory examination of these questions, this study con- view [36] identified the habitability of homes, access to affordable tributes to the literature on migration in the context of disasters from housing, financial burdens, the extent of restoration of public services natural hazards through suggesting how recovery aid may influence and facilities, and a sense of place and identity as major factors influ- migration decisions in this context and thereby be used as a tool for encing return migration in the aftermath of a disaster. Fear of future future risk reduction. disasters, stress associated with recovery, and loss of employment were also influential [36]. Other research has shown that education, 2. Theoretical background employment, and other indicators of socioeconomic status may influ- ence return migration after a disaster resulting from a natural hazard 2.1. Migration [37]. While return migrants face multiple intervening obstacles to reestablishing themselves successfully
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