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Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the East Kent Sub-Region Final Report

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Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the East Kent Sub-Region Final Report Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the East Kent Sub-region Final Report Strategic Housing Market Assessment for the East Kent Sub-region Final Report C3755 June 2009 ECOTEC Rose Court 2 Southwark Bridge Road London SE1 9HS United Kingdom T +44 (0)20 7921 3800 F +44 (0)20 7921 3899 www.ecotec.com East Kent SHMA ECOTEC Contents PAGE Key findings and recommendations...................................................................1 1.0 Introduction............................................................................................9 2.0 Context .................................................................................................23 3.0 Stakeholder views................................................................................33 4.0 The demographic profile .....................................................................34 5.0 Migration and commuting ...................................................................44 6.0 The economic context .........................................................................62 7.0 The existing housing stock.................................................................77 8.0 The active market.................................................................................88 9.0 East Kent Local Housing Market Areas............................................107 10.0 The future housing market................................................................125 11.0 Bringing the evidence together ........................................................148 12.0 Housing need and demand ...............................................................154 13.0 Housing requirements of specific groups........................................188 14.0 Housing preferences and aspirations ..............................................212 15.0 Conclusions: meeting housing need in East Kent ..........................226 East Kent SHMA ECOTEC Annexes 1 Statistical supplement 2 Comparative rail links – analysis and area profiles 3 Average house prices in comparative commuter towns 4 Local Housing Market Area profiles 5 Household projections by district 6 Housing aspirations questionnaire 7 Detailed analysis of housing aspirations survey 8 Stakeholder consultation 9 Dover strategic sites 10 Core outputs 11 Older households in housing need 12 Acknowledgements East Kent SHMA ECOTEC Key findings and recommendations A Local housing markets The study has identified twenty-one local housing markets, some of which straddle district boundaries, and some of which cross into areas administered by other local authorities. The proximity of East Kent to Kent Thames Gateway (which includes part of Swale), Ashford, and the London housing markets all exert influence on the housing and employment markets in the sub-region. There are different degrees of isolation and interaction with, for example, the Thanet markets being self-contained, while others, such as local markets based within Swale and Canterbury, exhibiting broader horizons. All told, however, compared to the rest of Kent and the rest of the South East, East Kent is relatively isolated and self-contained. B Population and demographics The critical challenge for the sub-region is tackling the impact of an ageing population, especially one where the proportion of very elderly people is forecast to increase. The forecast loss of younger age groups and the resultant potential of working age population is cause for concern and must be a key challenge for policy makers. The role of improving the housing 'offer' for incoming younger households is essential, as well as meeting the needs of an ageing population. C Household composition A combination of an ageing population, with more single older people, further in-migration from smaller households, fewer married couples, and falling household sizes because of longer term demographic and social change means that single person households are expected to increase in number. This is in spite of the fact that younger age groups (16 – 24s) are continuing to leave the sub-region. This means that there is apparent pressure for increased provision in the housing stock for smaller units. However, relatively, there is greater supply of these units than of family homes and houses, and this demographic trend should not dictate development policy. D The economy The East Kent economy is relatively weak and uncompetitive when compared to other parts of Kent and the South East. Although there is a reasonably stable employment pattern, there are elements of a second tier, less robust economy, especially in coastal towns. However there are substantive and ambitious regeneration and economic development strategies in place, which - 1 - East Kent SHMA ECOTEC need to be carried through in order to revive the region. There are issues for both coastal towns and rural hinterlands, particularly relating to transport and the local environment, that need addressing. The housing role in turning round economic performance is both to provide appropriate and attractive housing products for higher earners and to ensure that local young families can stay in the sub-region. E Future growth Linked to regenerating the economy, there are ambitious plans for housing growth in the region, with an additional 44,400 homes projected to be developed by 2026. Clearly, achieving these ambitions is highly dependent on an improving economic outlook, a return of developer confidence, access to mortgages for individuals, and easier access to development finance for housing associations. If growth does take off in the period envisioned by this SHMA, it will be important to ensure that housing development prioritises an appropriate mix to support a young and expanding workforce, meeting both affordable and market housing needs. F Earnings and wages East Kent wage levels reflect the economic picture, generally being below the overall Kent average and lower than the South East average. This reflects continuing reliance on lower paid elements of the economy – a relatively fragile tourist industry, agriculture and less well-paid areas of service industries. However, relatively high incomes have been generated for some, through a combination of access to higher paid jobs both within the region and in London, and through savings. G Improving skills Improving the relatively low level of skills found in the East Kent workforce is essential if its ambition to rebuild an economy around more knowledge-based industries is to be realised. The housing role in this starts at the local level, where providing affordable homes for young families is an ingredient in boosting school rolls; it extends to university level, where support for market accommodation for academic staff, and appropriate provision for students is important. H Transport and connectivity Central to plans for economic revival is the exploitation of better transport links, particularly those provided by the High Speed One rail network. Faster journey times both into and from London, into and through the Growth Areas and potentially abroad give East Kent the opportunity to compete more strongly with other commuter towns in the South East. Inward - 2 - East Kent SHMA ECOTEC investment to ensure the transport links stimulate the local economy is important in preventing the proliferation of dormitory areas. This needs to be complemented by an improved housing offer, including a variety of housing types at different price levels, market, intermediate and affordable rented. Linking the housing offer to the natural environmental attractiveness of East Kent is an important marketing element. J The rural dimension Substantial parts of East Kent are primarily rural in nature, with the combination of benefits and disbenefits this brings. On the plus side are relatively high values of land and houses, an attractive physical environment that can be marketed to wealthier incomers, and increasingly developed transport networks that can link rural areas with commercial and retail areas. On the negative side lie the severe affordability problems that mean low-waged locally-employed residents struggle to access accommodation they can afford; the flight of younger residents (particularly in times of recession where employment is more likely to be found elsewhere); and resultantly, an increasingly unbalanced community, comprising older residents and wealthier residents. With this comes the disuse of village and small town facilities, the threat to school rolls, post offices and shops, the withering away of local transport routes, and the isolation of elderly residents. Housing policy has a strong role to play in supporting the rural community in East Kent, and this SHMA suggests measures to encourage appropriate affordable housing development in East Kent. K The housing stock The housing stock in the sub-region is characterised by a combination of dense provision, and in some areas (such as the Thanet coastal towns) relative overprovision of smaller flats and sub-divided former family homes, building especially in the seaside towns; and a shortage of larger homes, of three bedrooms and more. This varies across the sub-region with Swale, for example, having a relatively low level of flats, but a stronger supply of terraced houses. It is important that future development policy prioritises a rebalancing of stock, to incentivise the provision of family homes (linking in to ambitions to revive the economy) and control the expansion of flatting of larger homes. At the same time, the sub-region does need
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