International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health Article Early-Warning Measures for Ecological Security in the Qinghai Alpine Agricultural Area Jing Guo 1,2,3, Zhen Wei 4, Jun Ren 5, Zenghai Luo 6 and Huakun Zhou 1,* 1 Key Laboratory of Restoration Ecology for Cold Regions in Qinghai, Northwest Institute of Plateau Biology, Chinese Academy of Science, Xining 810008, China;
[email protected] 2 Research Department of Ecological Environment, Qinghai Academy of Social Sciences, Xining 810000, China 3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China 4 Research Department of Economics, Qinghai Academy of Social Sciences, Xining 810000, China;
[email protected] 5 Graduate School of Qinghai University, Qinghai University, Xining 810016, China;
[email protected] 6 Qinghai General Station of Animal Husbandry, Xining 810003, China;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected] Received: 24 October 2020; Accepted: 9 December 2020; Published: 11 December 2020 Abstract: The study area of this paper is the Qinghai alpine agricultural mountain area. An ecological security early-warning model is used to identify the early warning signs of ecosystem destruction, environmental pollution and resource depletion in districts and counties from 2011 to 2018. A combination of qualitative and quantitative early-warning models is used to predict the existence of hidden or sudden advance warnings. The grey (1, 1) model (GM) is used to predict the evolution trend of ecological security warning situations from 2019 to 2021. On this basis, GIS technology is used to analyze the spatial pattern changes in three periods. The results show that from 2011 to 2018, the ecological environment in Qinghai’s alpine agricultural mountainous area gradually improved.