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The Cambridgeshire Development Study Final Report To The Cambridgeshire Development Study Final Report to: Cambridgeshire County Council Cambridge City Council East Cambridgeshire District Council Fenland District Council Huntingdonshire District Council South Cambridgeshire District Council Cambridgeshire Horizons July 2009 QM Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Draft Final Report Date 21/5/09 29/6/09 Prepared by BM BM Signature Checked by AH AH Signature Authorised by NMD NMD Signature Project number 11501176 11501176 File reference CDS 210509.doc CDS Final Report 140709.doc WSP Development and Transportation 66-68 Hills Road Cambridge CB2 1LA Tel: +44 (0)1223 558050 Fax: +44 (0)1223 558051 http://www.wspgroup.com WSP UK Limited | Registered Address WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF, UK | Reg No. 01383511 England | WSP Group plc | Offices worldwide Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 1 Introduction 7 2 Cambridgeshire Development Strategy 9 3 Process and Methodology 21 4 Growth Scenarios 28 5 Spatial Options 37 6 Evaluation – Environment, Climate Change, Water, Ecology and Related Infrastructure 47 7 Evaluation – Transport, Economy and Carbon Impacts 63 8 Evaluation – Summary 107 9 Developing a Spatial Strategy 118 10 Summary and Conclusions 123 FIGURES Figure 2.1 Progress with Implementing Policy H1 of the EEP Figure 2.2 Housing Completions in Cambridgeshire Figure 3.1 Application of Land Use and Transport Demand Modelling Figure 4.1 Comparison of two sets of projections for employment growth by district Figure 5.1 Strategic Sites – Under the Existing Strategy Figure 5.2 Dwellings Distribution - Market Town Option Figure 5.3 Dwellings Distribution - Urban Extensions around Cambridge Figure 5.4 Dwellings Distribution - New Settlement Options Figure 6.1 Constraints Figure 6.2 Spatial Options in relation to Constraints Figure 6.3 Environment Agency Flood Zones Figure 6.4 Ground Water Flooding Figure 6.5 Areas Served by Water Companies Figure 6.6 Catchment Abstraction Management Strategies Figure 6.7 Environment Agency Source Protection Zones Figure 6.8 Wastewater Treatment Works Figure 6.9 Designated Sites Figure 7.1a 2001 Age Structure of County Residents – CCC Research Group and TEMPRO 5.4 Figure 7.1b 2031 Age Structure of County Residents – TEMPRO 5.4 Figure 7.1c Growth in Dwellings and Employment Compared with Demand for Employment Figure 7.1d Dwelling and Employment Trajectories Figure 7.2 Cambridgeshire’s Projected Population per Dwelling, Dwellings and Population Figure 7.3 Comparison of Employment Forecast with Workspace Available Figure 7.4 Balance of Dwellings to Employment: Current Strategy Figure 7.5 Cambridgeshire’s Working Population and Jobs Distribution at Ward Level: 2031 Baseline Figure 7.6 Balance of Dwellings to Employment Figure 7.7 Cambridgeshire’s Working Population and Jobs Distribution at Ward Level. Figure 7.8 Dwellings and Employment 2031 Baseline Figure 7.9 Dwellings and Employment 2031 Market Towns Medium Growth Figure 7.10 Dwellings and Employment 2031 Market Towns Higher Growth Figure 7.11 Dwellings and Employment 2031 Cambridge Medium Growth Figure 7.12 Dwellings and Employment 2031 Cambridge Higher Growth Figure 7.13 Dwellings and Employment 2031 New Settlement Medium Growth Figure 7.14 Dwellings and Employment 2031 New Settlement Higher Growth Figure 7.15 Proportions of Trips and CO2 Emissions by Trip Purpose Figure 7.16 2031 Baseline Figure 7.17 Commuting Patterns - 2031 Market Town Strategy Medium Growth Figure 7.18 Commuting Patterns 2031 Market Town Strategy Higher Growth Figure 7.19 Commuting Patterns 2031 Cambridge Strategy Medium Growth Figure 7.20 Commuting Patterns 2031 Cambridge Strategy Higher Growth Figure 7.21 Commuting Patterns 2031 New Settlement Medium Growth Figure 7.22 Commuting Patterns 2031 New Settlement Higher Growth Figure 7.23 2031 Current Strategy (Baseline) Mode Share Figure 7.24 Total CO2 per Annum from Weekday Light Vehicle Trips, By Origin Figure 7.25 Total Change in CO2 per Annum from Weekday Light Vehicle Trips, By Origin Figure 7.26 Contribution of Work and Non-work Trips to Carbon Emissions, and impact of lowered emission rates Figure 7.27 CO2 Emissions in Cambridgeshire in 2006, by Sector Figure 7.28 CO2 Emissions in Cambridgeshire in 2006, by Energy Source Figure 7.29 Economic and CO2 Projections Figure 7.30 Energy and CO2 Emissions Trends by Sector APPENDICES Appendix A Policies CSR1 to CSR4 Appendix B Land Supply Paper Appendix C Employment Supply by District Appendix D Validation of EERA Growth Scenarios Appendix E Economy Papers Appendix F Infrastructure Supply and Constraints Paper Appendix G Evaluation of Potential To Impact On Growth for Flooding and Other Water Related Aspects Appendix H Draft Spatial Implications for Economic Drivers Executive Summary The Cambridgeshire Development Study has been undertaken by consultants WSP in association with Pegasus Planning, SQW Consulting and Cambridge Econometrics, to provide an evaluation of the potential spatial options for growth in Cambridgeshire and to identify areas of further work needed to guide the preparation of a preferred development strategy for the county. The Cambridgeshire Development Study requires evaluation and outputs to allow the Cambridgeshire RSS Review Study Group (senior officers of the Cambridgeshire local authorities and Cambridgeshire Horizons) and Cambridgeshire County Council (CCC) to formulate appropriate consultation responses to the East of England Regional Assembly (EERA) in the interests of recommending proposals for shaping sustainable growth in Cambridgeshire. Delivery of the current strategy, embodied in the East of England Plan (and the earlier Structure Plan), is the top priority for Cambridgeshire, following Policy CSR1 and utilising the already identified housing supply with land available for up to 75,415 homes. The local authorities in Cambridgeshire are already putting into place a framework to implement this strategy, and Local Development Frameworks (LDF) are being prepared in each of the districts. However, delivery of the current strategy is likely to be challenging for the following reasons: The economic downturn reducing job growth and housing completions, at least in the near future; Land values reducing leading to challenges for delivery of necessary infrastructure related to new development; Enabling Cambridge East and significant allocated housing on the edge of Cambridge to move forward by finding a suitable site for the relocation of Marshall Cambridge Airport; Uncertainty of future infrastructure costs and the likely gap between infrastructure requirements and available funding with a gap identified of up to around £1bn to 20211; The need for an agreed transport solution for Cambridge and its surrounding area, such as through the Transport Innovation Fund (TIF) or similar levels of investment; and Additional requirements relating to adaptation and mitigating the impacts on climate change The methodology for the study is set out below. 1 Cambridgeshire Horizons LTDP 11501176 The Cambridgeshire Development Study 1 Demand Side Evidence Base Supply Side Economy (CE Demographics Planning Constraints Model with SQW (TEMPRO 5.3 in (Land Supply) (Transport and reality check and CSRM) Infrastructure) Economic Workshops) Agree with Growth Scenarios Spatial Options CCC and (Chapter 4) (Chapter 5) RSS Review Scale Evaluation of Distribution Spatial Options Evaluation for Land-Use and Transport Evaluation against Environment, Climate Modelling (CSRM) agreed criteria - Change, Water, (Chapter 7 – Para 7.1 onwards) Cambs Objectives, Ecology and Related EERA Sustainability Infrastructure Framework and (Chapter 6) Carbon Modelling (Cambridge Quality Charter for Econometrics) Growth (Chapter 7 – Para 7.13) (Chapter 8) “Call for Development” Proposals Developing a Spatial Strategy EERA Regional Scale (Chapter 9) Settlement Study This study has used the Vision and Objectives developed by CCC and the RSS Study Group, and the Quality Charter for Growth to inform and shape the process of developing the growth scenarios and spatial options together with providing a guide to the evaluation of the options tested. Compared to the range of 98,000 to 129,000 (2006 – 2031) in the EERA scenarios, the study set more realistic growth scenarios for testing in Cambridgeshire at 75,000, 90,000 and 110,000 new homes i.e. baseline, medium and higher growth scenarios. These were based on likely employment projections and taking account of the current economic downturn and reduction in rate of house building. The following spatial options, which emerged from the findings of a background analysis, were assessed; baseline (current strategy included in all options); north of the County – market towns and other main settlements; 2 The Cambridgeshire Development Study 11501176 urban extensions in the south – around Cambridge; and new settlements. The testing for the growth scenarios against the spatial options is summarised below. Growth Baseline Spatial Option Scenario Market Town Cambridge New Expansion Settlements 75,415 Current Strategy Included in all options 90,415 n/a 110,415 n/a These spatial options were then used to test against the growth scenarios, within WSP’s land-use model for the County, the Cambridge Sub-Regional Model (CSRM). Spatial housing pattern within the CSRM were based on Cambridgeshire County Council’s (CCC) projection of strategic site developments and CCC’s Research Group’s revised estimates of the total development by Ward. The employment projections produced by Cambridge
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