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Manhattan Law Firm Trends Report

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Manhattan Law Firm Trends Report LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN H2 2019 2019 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Executive 5 Rents Summary 2 Top 25 Law 6 Other Market Firms Factors 3 Occupancy 7 Methodology & Definitions 4 Leasing 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY OCCUPANCY LEASE EXPIRATIONS LOCATION As of 2019, the 1,801 law firms monitored in this report More than 6.6 million sq. ft. of lease expirations are set to Midtown’s core drove occupy 34.87 million sq. ft. of office space. The top 25 take place between 2021 and 2024, an indication that leasing velocity in occupiers have footprints that range from approximately activity is likely to remain solid within the next few years. 2019, the five top 280,000 sq. ft. to 718,000 sq. ft. In aggregate, the legal Larger firms with expirations later than 2024 will also transactions of the year sector occupies 9.% of total RSF in Manhattan. likely enter the market over the next three years further took place in the fueling demand. Midtown. New product continues to attract law LEASING VELOCITY LEASE ECONOMICS firms as the largest deal of the year occurred at Legal services tenants usually seek out space in prime office 2019’s leasing velocity totaled 2.71 million sq. ft., down 2 Manhattan West. 5% from last year. Renewals saw a slight uptick in 2019 product with good accessibility to clients. Such premises often accounting for 38% of the total velocity. Relocations were command rents that exceed the average in any given still prevalent at 59% of the total but shrunk from 67% submarket. Nevertheless, general creditworthiness, in addition RENTS witnessed in 2018. to long-lease terms, helps law firms secure favorable terms. The average taking rent for law firms in Midtown saw EMPLOYMENT SPACE USE an increase of 5% since After seeing 0.8% annual average growth from 2014 to Becoming more efficient is still a primary objective for almost all year-end 2018, pushing it 2018, legal services employment growth has accelerated this law firms in Manhattan. Currently, the most efficient law floor to a record high, while the year, up 4% since year-end 2018 to reach 83,200 jobs. plan in Manhattan features partners in interior glass offices and Downtown law firm taking While law firm recruitment efforts have reduced emphasis on all associates in an open area, however this is not the norm. rent also jumped support staff, they continue to actively pursue candidates for Still, most law firms are moving toward single sized offices, while dramatically in 2019 due to fee-earning positions. the time associates spend in an open environment is being some deals at new extended through their third and fourth years. construction projects. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 4 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 2. TOP 25 LAW FIRMS TOP 25 LAW FIRMS TOTAL MANHATTAN OCCUPANCY TENANT ADDRESS (PRIMARY LISTED ONLY) TOTAL MANHATTAN SQ. FT. Sullivan & Cromwell 125 Broad Street 717,802 Skadden, Arps, Slate, Meagher & Flom 1 Manhattan West 643,601 Kirkland & Ellis LLP 601 Lexington Avenue 548,489 Davis, Polk & Wardwell 450 Lexington Avenue 540,209 Debevoise & Plimpton 66 Hudson Boulevard 530,721 Simpson, Thacher & Bartlett 425 Lexington Avenue 496,209 White & Case LLP 1221 Avenue of the Americas 489,218 Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP 2 Manhattan West 481,678 Proskauer Rose LLP 11 Times Square 477,758 Weil, Gotshal & Manges LLP 767 Fifth Avenue 474,525 Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP 1285 Avenue of the Americas 438,144 Cleary Gottlieb 1 Liberty Plaza 421,037 Latham & Watkins 1271 Avenue of the Americas 406,661 Fried, Frank, Harris, Shriver & Jacobson LLP 1 New York Plaza 390,087 Sidley Austin LLP 787 Seventh Avenue 357,166 Jones Day 250 Vesey Street 340,548 Shearman & Sterling LLP 599 Lexington Avenue 338,057 Milbank, Tweed, Hadley & McCloy 55 Hudson Yards 323,008 Willkie Farr & Gallagher LLP 787 Seventh Avenue 319,002 Kramer, Levin, Naftalis & Frankel LLP 1177 Avenue of the Americas 314,838 Gibson, Dunn & Crutcher 200 Park Avenue 311,513 Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft LLP 200 Liberty Street 294,298 Arnold & Porter Kaye Scholer LLP 250 West 55th Street 292,922 Schulte, Roth & Zabel LLP 919 Third Avenue 282,102 Winston & Strawn 200 Park Avenue 281,188 Source: CBRE Research, H2 2019. Total occupancy figures do not include space the tenant has subleased to a subtenant or space currently on the market for sublease. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 6 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 Historically, top law firms have been attracted to Midtown’s prestigious addresses and transportation hubs. Of the top law firms TOP 25 LAW FIRMS in Midtown, the majority reside in the Six Avenue/Rock Center and Park Avenue submarkets. Penn Station has seen an increase in the law firms migrating to the area due to the new product offered OCCUPANCY ACROSS MARKETS within the submarket at Hudson Yards. 5% 5% 25% 20% 20% Midtown Manhattan 15% 25% 80% 5% Midtown Downtown Park 6th/Rock Center East Side Times Sq/West Penn Station Grand Central Plaza Source: CBRE Research, H2 2019. Primary location only. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 7 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 2019 TOP LEASE TRANSACTIONS TENANT LOCATION SQ. FT. TYPE Cravath, Swaine & Moore LLP 2 Manhattan West 481,678 Lease Shearman & Sterling LLP 599 Lexington Avenue 338,057 Renewal Akin, Gump, Strauss, Hauer & Feld 1 Bryant Park 214,132 Renewal Hunton Andews Kurth 200 Park Avenue 144,451 Renewal Katten Muchin Zavis Rosenman 50 Rockefeller Plaza 125,097 Lease Sheppard, Mullin, Richter & Hampton, LLP 30 Rockefeller Plaza 109,572 Renewal/Expansion Kelley, Drye & Warren, LLP. 3 World Trade Center 100,000 Lease Akerman LLP 1251 Avenue of the Americas 99,615 Lease Linklaters 1290 Avenue of the Americas 90,508 Lease Davis & Gilbert 1675 Broadway 85,862 Lease Cozen O`Connor 3 World Trade Center 73,932 Lease Eversheds Sutherland 1114 Avenue of the Americas 51,641 Renewal Greenberg Traurig LLP 420 Lexington Avenue 46,744 Expansion/Renewal Gunderson Dettmer 1250 Broadway 44,718 Lease Schiff Hardin LLP 1185 Avenue of the Americas 44,689 Lease Squire Patton Boggs 1211 Avenue of the Americas 41,385 Lease McAloon & Friedman, P.C. 1 State Street 31,069 Lease McDermott, Will & Emery 1 Vanderbilt Ave 30,169 Expansion Kirkland & Ellis LLP 601 Lexington Avenue 29,985 Renewal Axiom Legal 3 World Trade Center 29,194 Lease Fish & Richardson, P.C. 7 Times Square Tower 27,488 Lease Norris McLaughlin & Marcus 7 Times Square Tower 27,488 Lease Kaplan Hecker & Fink LLP 350 Fifth Avenue 26,997 Lease Wilk Auslander, LLP 825 Eighth Avenue 24,396 Lease Pierce Bainbridge 277 Park Avenue 24,338 Lease Source: CBRE Research, H2 2019. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 8 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 3. OCCUPANCY Total law firm occupancy by square footage dipped slightly from year-end 2018, declining nearly 2% to 34.87 million OCCUPANCY sq. ft., while occupancy as a percentage of total Manhattan RSF declined 10 bps to 9.3%. The trend toward more efficient space standards make it less likely that a significant uptick in occupancy levels is on the horizon. Office Space Occupied by Law Firms (MSF) Percentage of Total Manhattan Office RSF (%) 42 16% 41 14% 40 11.7% 11.5% 11.3% 11.4% 12% 39 10.9% 10.5% 10.5% 10.1% 9.7% 38 9.4% 9.3% 10% 37 8% 36 35 34.87 6% 34 4% 33 2% 32 31 0% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sq. Ft. % of Manhattan RSF Source: CBRE Research, H2 2019. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 10 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 Among the law firms with locations in Midtown, 80% are located within the Grand Central, East Side, Park Avenue, Sixth OCCUPANCY Avenue/Rockefeller Center, and the Times Square/West Side submarkets. In Downtown, virtually all locations are based in BY MARKET the Financial and City Hall submarkets. 6% 2% 8% 3% 3% 8% 33% Manhattan Midtown Downtown 42% 34% 10% 1051 610 1801 56% Locations Locations Locations 58% 13% 14% 10% Midtown Downtown Midtown South Grand Central East Side Park Financial City hall Downtown West 6th/Rock Center Time Sq/West Penn Station Times Sq/South Plaza 5th/Madison Source: CBRE Research, H2 2019. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 11 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 Of the 1801 law firms with a Manhattan presence in 2019, the top 100 occupiers account for 60% of the total office space OCCUPANCY currently leased by the sector. Additionally, firms that occupy more than 100,000 sq. ft. account for roughly half of the total BY SQUARE FOOTAGE office space leased by the sector. By Rank, Sq. Ft. Occupied Size Band,5% Sq. Ft. Occupied 13% 13% 9% 29% 28% 12% 1801 Firms 1644 Firms 10% 34.87 MSF 34.87 MSF 13% 8% 15% 21% 16% 13% Top 25 26-50 51-100 101-150 250,000+ SF 100-249,999 SF 50-99,999 SF 151-250 251-450 Remainder 25-49,999 SF 10-24,999 SF Under 10,000 SF Source: CBRE Research, H1 2019. © 2020 CBRE, Inc. 12 LEGAL SECTOR TRENDS IN MANHATTAN | H2 2019 4. LEASING Law firms are expected to see at a little more than 4.0 million sq. ft. of office leases expiring through 2023, LEASE EXPIRATIONS before spiking to roughly 2.5 million sq. ft. in 2024. As law firms address these impending expirations, activity is on track to remain strong and steady in the near-term. Law Firm Office Lease Expirations (MSF) vs. Number of Transactions 3.0 2.5 2.0 6 | 47% 6 | 73% 1.5 3 | 38% 3 | 40% 2 | 43% 2 | 22% 6 | 17% 1.0 4 | 13% 3 |11% 5 | 19% 7 | 33% 6 | 11% 3 | 23% 4 | 15% 15 | 21% 15 | 29% 1 | 2% 9 | 18% 0.5 6 | 17% 2 | 36% 13 | 17% 74 | 34% 61 | 61% 5 | 28% 50 | 23% 47 | 15% 41 | 22% 31 | 27% 17 | 7% 21 | 36% 0.0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 <25k 25k-50k 50k-100k >100k Source: CBRE Research, H2 2019.
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