OCTOBER 2020
LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Introduction Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy (“LCOE”) analysis addresses the following topics:
• Comparative LCOE analysis for various generation technologies on a $/MWh basis, including sensitivities for U.S. federal tax subsidies, fuel prices, carbon pricing and costs of capital
• Illustration of how the LCOE of onshore wind and utility-scale solar compare to the marginal cost of selected conventional generation technologies
• Historical LCOE comparison of various utility-scale generation technologies
• Illustration of the historical LCOE declines for wind and utility-scale solar technologies
• Illustration of how the LCOEs of utility-scale solar and wind compare to those of gas peaking and combined cycle
• Comparison of capital costs on a $/kW basis for various generation technologies
• Deconstruction of the LCOE for various generation technologies by capital cost, fixed operations and maintenance expense, variable operations and maintenance expense and fuel cost
• Overview of the methodology utilized to prepare Lazard’s LCOE analysis
• Considerations regarding the operating characteristics and applications of various generation technologies
• Summary of assumptions utilized in Lazard’s LCOE analysis
• Summary considerations in respect of Lazard’s approach to evaluating the LCOE of various conventional and renewable energy technologies Other factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein, but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis. These additional factors, among others, could include: capacity value vs. energy value; network upgrades, transmission, congestion or other integration-related costs; significant permitting or other development costs, unless otherwise noted; and costs of complying with various environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions offsets or emissions control systems). This analysis also does not address potential social and environmental externalities, including, for example, the social costs and rate consequences for those who cannot afford distributed generation solutions, as well as the long-term residual and societal consequences of various conventional generation technologies that are difficult to measure (e.g., nuclear waste disposal, airborne pollutants, greenhouse gases, etc.)
1 Copyright 2020 Lazard This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Unsubsidized Analysis Selected renewable energy generation technologies are cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies under certain circumstances
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $150 $227
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $74 $179
Solar PV–Community $63 $94
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale (1) $31 $42 Renewable Energy Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale (1) $29 $38
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $126 $156
Geothermal $59 $101
Wind $26 $54 $86(2)
Gas Peaking (3) $151 $198
Nuclear (4) $29(5) $129 $198 Conventional Coal (6) $41(5) $65 $159
Gas Combined Cycle (3) $28(5) $44 $73 $88(7) $127(8)
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Here and throughout this presentation, unless otherwise indicated, the analysis assumes 60% debt at 8% interest rate and 40% equity at 12% cost. Please see page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Cost of Capital” for cost of capital sensitivities. These results are not intended to represent any particular geography. Please see page titled “Solar PV versus Gas Peaking and Wind versus CCGT—Global Markets” for regional sensitivities to selected technologies. (1) Unless otherwise indicated herein, the low case represents a single-axis tracking system and the high case represents a fixed-tilt system. (2) Represents the estimated implied midpoint of the LCOE of offshore wind, assuming a capital cost range of approximately $2,600 – $3,675/kW. (3) The fuel cost assumption for Lazard’s global, unsubsidized analysis for gas-fired generation resources is $3.45/MMBTU. (4) Unless otherwise indicated, the analysis herein does not reflect decommissioning costs, ongoing maintenance-related capital expenditures or the potential economic impacts of federal loan guarantees or other subsidies. (5) Represents the midpoint of the marginal cost of operating fully depreciated gas combined cycle, coal and nuclear facilities, inclusive of decommissioning costs for nuclear facilities. Analysis assumes that the salvage value for a decommissioned gas combined cycle or coal asset is equivalent to its decommissioning and site restoration costs. Inputs are derived from a benchmark of operating gas combined cycle, coal and nuclear assets across the U.S. Capacity factors, fuel, variable and fixed operating expenses are based on upper- and lower-quartile estimates derived from Lazard’s research. Please see page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Renewable Energy versus Marginal Cost of Selected Existing Conventional Generation” for additional details. (6) High end incorporates 90% carbon capture and storage. Does not include cost of transportation and storage. (7) Represents the LCOE of the observed high case gas combined cycle inputs using a 20% blend of “Blue” hydrogen, (i.e., hydrogen produced from a steam-methane reformer, using natural gas as a feedstock, and sequestering the resulting CO2 in a nearby saline aquifer). No plant modifications are assumed beyond a 2% adjustment to the plant’s heat rate. The corresponding fuel cost is $5.20/MMBTU. 2 Copyright 2020 Lazard (8) Represents the LCOE of the observed high case gas combined cycle inputs using a 20% blend of “Green” hydrogen, (i.e., hydrogen produced from an electrolyzer powered by a mix of wind and solar generation and stored in a nearby salt cavern). No plant modifications are assumed beyond a 2% adjustment to the plant’s heat rate. The corresponding fuel cost is $10.05/MMBTU. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to U.S. Federal Tax Subsidies(1) The Investment Tax Credit (“ITC”) and Production Tax Credit (“PTC”) remain important components of the levelized cost of renewable energy generation technologies
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $150 $227
$135 $205
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $74 $179
$66 $161
Solar PV–Community $63 $94
$60 $90
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale $31 $42
$26 $35
Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale $29 $38
$24 $32
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $126 $156
$117 $143
Geothermal $59 $101
$49 $94
Wind $26 $54
$9 $43
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Unsubsidized Subsidized Source: Lazard estimates. Note: The sensitivity analysis presented on this page also includes sensitivities related to the U.S. Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (“TCJA”) of 2017. The TCJA contains several provisions that impact the LCOE of various generation technologies (e.g., a reduced federal corporate income tax rate, an ability to elect immediate bonus depreciation, limitations on the deductibility of interest expense and restrictions on the utilization of past net operating losses). On balance the TCJA reduced the LCOE of conventional generation technologies and marginally increased the LCOE of renewable energy technologies. 3 Copyright 2020 Lazard (1) The sensitivity analysis presented on this page assumes that projects qualify for the full ITC/PTC and have a capital structure that includes sponsor equity, tax equity and debt. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Fuel Prices Variations in fuel prices can materially affect the LCOE of conventional generation technologies, but direct comparisons to “competing” renewable energy generation technologies must take into account issues such as dispatch characteristics (e.g., baseload and/or dispatchable intermediate capacity vs. those of peaking or intermittent technologies)
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $150 $227
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $74 $179
Solar PV–Community $63 $94
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale $31 $42 Renewable Energy Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale $29 $38
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $126 $156
Geothermal $59 $101
Wind $26 $54
Gas Peaking (1) $142 $206
Nuclear (2) $125 $200 Conventional Coal (3) $61 $164
Gas Combined Cycle (1) $38 $80
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 Levelized Cost ($/MWh)
Source: Lazard estimates. Unsubsidized ± 25% Fuel Price Adjustment Note: Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used in the global, unsubsidized analysis as presented on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Unsubsidized Analysis”. (1) Assumes a fuel cost range for gas-fired generation resources of $2.59/MMBTU – $4.31/MMBTU (representing a range of ± 25% of the standard assumption of $3.45/MMBTU). 4 (2) Assumes a fuel cost range for nuclear generation resources of $0.64/MMBTU – $1.06/MMBTU (representing a range of ± 25% of the standard assumption of $0.85MMBTU). Copyright 2020 Lazard (3) Assumes a fuel cost range for coal-fired generation resources of $1.10/MMBTU – $1.84/MMBTU (representing a range of ± 25% of the standard assumption of $1.47/MMBTU). This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Carbon Pricing Carbon pricing is one avenue for policymakers to address carbon emissions via a market-based mechanism; a carbon price range of $20 – $40/Ton of carbon would increase the LCOE for certain conventional generation technologies to levels above those of onshore wind and utility-scale solar
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $150 $227
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $74 $179
Solar PV–Community $63 $94
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale $31 $42 Renewable Energy Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale $29 $38
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $126 $156
Geothermal $59 $101
Wind $26 $54
$151 $198 (1) Gas Peaking $165 $220
Nuclear $29(2) $129 $198
Conventional $41(2) $65 $159 Coal(1)(3) $86 $165
$28(2) $44 $73 Gas Combined Cycle (1)(4) $53 $92
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Unsubsidized Marginal Cost without Carbon Pricing Unsubsidized with Carbon Pricing Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used in the global, unsubsidized analysis as presented on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Unsubsidized Analysis”. (1) The low and high ranges reflect the LCOE of selected conventional generation technologies including illustrative carbon prices of $20/Ton and $40/Ton, respectively. (2) Reflects the midpoint of the marginal cost of operating fully depreciated gas combined cycle and coal facilities as shown on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Unsubsidized Analysis”. (3) The narrow spread between the high end of new build coal with and without carbon pricing results from the incorporation of 90% carbon capture and compression. The midpoint of the marginal cost of operating fully depreciated coal facilities with the illustrative carbon pricing presented herein is $167/MWh. Operating coal facilities are not assumed to employ carbon capture and storage technology. 5 (4) The midpoint of the marginal cost of operating fully depreciated gas combined cycle facilities with the illustrative carbon pricing presented herein is $59/MWh, reflecting the relatively higher heat rate for existing plants compared to Copyright 2020 Lazard new build facilities. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to Cost of Capital A key consideration in determining the LCOE values for utility-scale generation technologies is the cost, and availability, of capital(1); this dynamic is particularly significant for renewable energy generation technologies
Midpoint of Unsubsidized LCOE(2)
LCOE LCOE v14 ($/MWh)
$220 Nuclear $200 200 $186 $198 Gas Peaker $175 180 $172 $164 $181 $163 $153 $156 Solar Thermal 160 Tower $143 $145 $141 $134 140 $128 $127 $123 Coal 120 $113 $114 $112 $102 $103 Geothermal 100 $92 $93 $86 $82 $80 $75 80 $70 Gas—Combined $63 Cycle $65 $59 $61 $55 $57 60 $53 $43 $45 Wind $38 $40 40 $34 $36 $40 $44 $33 $37 Solar PV– 20 $28 $30 Crystalline
0 After-Tax 4.2% 5.4% 6.5% 7.7% 8.8% 10.0% IRR/WACC Cost of Equity 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
Cost of Debt 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Analysis assumes 60% debt and 40% equity. Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used in the global, unsubsidized analysis as presented on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Unsubsidized Analysis”. 6 (1) Cost of capital as used herein indicates the cost of capital applicable to the asset/plant and not the cost of capital of a particular investor/owner. Copyright 2020 Lazard (2) Reflects the average of the high and low LCOE for each respective cost of capital assumption. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Renewable Energy versus Marginal Cost of Selected Existing Conventional Generation Certain renewable energy generation technologies have an LCOE that is competitive with the marginal cost of existing conventional generation $70
Levelized Cost of New-Build Wind and Solar Marginal Cost of Selected Existing Conventional Generation(1) 60
$54
50 $48
$43
40 $38
$32 $32 $32 Unsubsidized $34 Solar PV 30 Subsidized Solar PV Cost of Energy ($/MWh) $29 Unsubsidized $26 $25 Wind $24 $23 20
10 Subsidized Wind $9
0 Onshore Wind Onshore Wind Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Coal Nuclear Gas—Combined Cycle (Subsidized)(2) Scale Scale (Subsidized)(2) Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Unless otherwise noted, the assumptions used in this sensitivity correspond to those used in the global, unsubsidized analysis as presented on the page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Unsubsidized Analysis”. (1) Represents the marginal cost of operating fully depreciated gas combined cycle, coal and nuclear facilities, inclusive of decommissioning costs for nuclear facilities. Analysis assumes that the salvage value for a decommissioned gas combined cycle or coal asset is equivalent to its decommissioning and site restoration costs. Inputs are derived from a benchmark of operating gas combined cycle, coal and nuclear assets across the U.S. Capacity factors, fuel, variable and fixed operating expenses are based on upper and lower quartile estimates derived from Lazard’s research. 7 Copyright 2020 Lazard (2) The subsidized analysis includes sensitivities related to the TCJA and U.S. federal tax subsidies. Please see page titled “Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Sensitivity to U.S. Federal Tax Subsidies” for additional details. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Historical Utility-Scale Generation Comparison Lazard’s unsubsidized LCOE analysis indicates significant historical cost declines for utility-scale renewable energy generation technologies driven by, among other factors, decreasing capital costs, improving technologies and increased competition Selected Historical Mean Unsubsidized LCOE Values(1)
Mean LCOE ($/MWh) $380 $359
320
$275 Gas Peaker 260 $248 (36%)
$227 Nuclear $243 $216 33% $205 $205 Solar Thermal 200 $192 $191 Tower $183 $179 (16%) $175 $175 $174 $168 Coal $157 $159 $163 $155 1% $151 $145 $150 $148 $151 $141 $157 Geothermal 140 $135 $125 6% $124 $124 $117 $140 $140 $141 $123 $117 $112 $111 $111 $116 $116 $109 Gas—Combined $116 $108 $102 $102 $102 $111 $104 $105 Cycle $107 $102 $112 $104 $109 (29%) $83 $96 $95 $98 $80 $96 $98 $79 $100 $97 80 $83 $75 $74 $91 $91 Wind $82 $64 $63 (70%) $76 $74 $60 $58 $56 $59 $71 $72 $70 $65 $55 $50 $43 Solar PV— $59 $41 $40 $55 Crystalline $47 $45 $42 $40 $37 (90%) 20 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 LCOE Version 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0
Source: Lazard estimates. (1) Reflects the average of the high and low LCOE for each respective technology in each respective year. Percentages represent the total decrease in the average LCOE since Lazard’s LCOE— 8 Copyright 2020 Lazard Version 3.0. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Historical Renewable Energy LCOE Declines In light of material declines in the pricing of system components and improvements in efficiency, among other factors, wind and utility-scale solar PV have exhibited dramatic LCOE declines; however, as these industries have matured, the rates of decline have diminished
Unsubsidized Wind LCOE Unsubsidized Solar PV LCOE
LCOE Wind 2009 – 2020 Percentage Decrease: (71%)(1) LCOE Utility-Scale Solar 2009 – 2020 Percentage Decrease: (90%)(1) ($/MWh) ($/MWh) Wind 2009 – 2020 CAGR: (2) Utility-Scale Solar 2009 – 2020 CAGR: (19%)(2) $250 (11%) $450 Wind 2015 – 2020 CAGR: (2) Utility-Scale Solar 2015 – 2020 CAGR: (2) (5%) $394 (11%) 400
200 350 $169 300 $323 $148 $270 150 250
$226 $95 $95 200 100 $92 $166 $149 $81 $77 $101 $99 150 $62 $60 $56 $54 $54 $148 $104 100 $86 50 $70 $61 $101 $53 $50 $48 $91 $46 $44 $42 $45 50 $37 $72 $32 $32 $30 $58 $29 $28 $26 $49 $46 $40 $36 0 0 $31 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LCOE LCOE Version 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 Version 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 Wind LCOE Mean Crystalline Utility-Scale Solar LCOE Mean
Wind LCOE Range Crystalline Utility-Scale Solar LCOE Range
Source: Lazard estimates. (1) Represents the average percentage decrease of the high end and low end of the LCOE range. 9 Copyright 2020 Lazard (2) Represents the average compounded annual rate of decline of the high end and low end of the LCOE range. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Solar PV versus Gas Peaking and Wind versus CCGT—Global Markets(1) Solar PV and wind have become increasingly competitive with conventional technologies with similar generation profiles; without storage, however, these resources lack the dispatch characteristics, and associated benefits, of such conventional technologies LCOE v14 $31 $179 $151 $198 U.S. $29 $107 $124 $162 Australia $30 $98 $146 $188 Brazil $43 $130 Solar PV(2) $209 $248 versus India (3) $55 $162 Gas Peaker $210 $255 South Africa $45 $136 $200 $242 Japan $40 $125 $158 $186 Europe $50 $172 $164 $200 LCOE v14 $26 $54 $44 $73 U.S. $23 $46 $41 $61 Australia $27 $61 $47 $70 Wind(4) Brazil $31 $53 versus $77 $107 Gas Combined India $49 $95 Cycle(5) $71 $103 South Africa $47 $77 $70 $100 Japan $36 $72 $65 $87 Europe $34 $54 $60 $84 $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275
Source: Lazard estimates. Unsubsidized LCOE Solar PV Gas Peaker Levelized Cost ($/MWh) Wind CCGT Note: The analysis presented on this page assumes country-specific or regionally applicable tax rates. (1) Equity IRRs are assumed to be 10.0% – 12.0% for Australia, 15.0% for Brazil and South Africa, 13.0% – 15.0% for India, 8.0% – 10.0% for Japan, 7.5% – 12.0% for Europe and 7.5% – 9.0% for the U.S. Cost of debt is assumed to be 5.0% – 5.5% for Australia, 10.0% – 12.0% for Brazil, 12.0% – 13.0% for India, 3.0% for Japan, 4.5% – 5.5% for Europe, 12.0% for South Africa and 4.0% – 4.5% for the U.S. (2) Low end assumes crystalline utility-scale solar with a single-axis tracker. High end assumes rooftop C&I solar. Solar projects assume illustrative capacity factors of 21% – 28% for the U.S., 26% – 30% for Australia, 26% – 28% for Brazil, 22% – 23% for India, 27% – 29% for South Africa, 16% – 18% for Japan and 13% – 16% for Europe. (3) Assumes natural gas prices of $3.45 for the U.S., $4.00 for Australia, $8.00 for Brazil, $7.00 for India, South Africa and Japan and $6.00 for Europe (all in U.S.$ per MMBtu). Assumes a capacity factor of 10% for all geographies. (4) Wind projects assume illustrative capacity factors of 38% – 55% for the U.S., 29% – 46% for Australia, 45% – 55% for Brazil, 25% – 35% for India, 31% – 36% for South Africa, 22% – 30% for Japan and 33% – 38% for Europe. 10 (5) Assumes natural gas prices of $3.45 for the U.S., $4.00 for Australia, $8.00 for Brazil, $7.00 for India, South Africa and Japan and $6.00 for Europe (all in U.S.$ per MMBtu). Assumes capacity Copyright 2020 Lazard factors of 55% – 70% on the high and low ends, respectively, for all geographies. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Capital Cost Comparison In some instances, the capital costs of renewable energy generation technologies have converged with those of certain conventional generation technologies, which coupled with improvements in operational efficiency for renewable energy technologies, have led to a convergence in LCOE between the respective technologies
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $2,525 $2,825
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $1,600 $2,825
Solar PV–Community $1,300 $1,500
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale $825 $975 Renewable Energy Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale $825 $975
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $6,000 $9,090
Geothermal $4,500 $6,050
Wind $1,050 $1,450 $3,138(1)
Gas Peaking $700 $925
Nuclear $7,675 $12,500 Conventional Coal $2,900 $6,225
Gas Combined Cycle $700 $1,250
$0 $1,500 $3,000 $4,500 $6,000 $7,500 $9,000 $10,500 $12,000 $13,500 Capital Cost ($/kW)
Source: Lazard estimates. (1) Represents the estimated midpoint of the total capital cost for offshore wind. 11 Copyright 2020 Lazard This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Components—Low End Certain renewable energy generation technologies are already cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies; a key factor regarding the continued cost decline of renewable energy generation technologies is the ability of technological development and industry scale to continue lowering operating expenses and capital costs for renewable energy generation technologies
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $140 $10 $150
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $68 $6 $74
Solar PV–Community $56 $7 $63
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale $26 $5 $31 Renewable Energy Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale $25 $4 $29
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $113 $13 $126
Geothermal $49 $2 $9 $59
Wind $21 $6 $26
Gas Peaking $105 $8 $4 $34 $151
Nuclear $101 $15 $4 $9 $129 Conventional Coal $44 $6 $3 $13 $65
Gas Combined Cycle $18 $2$3 $21 $44
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 Levelized Cost ($/MWh)
Capital Cost Fixed O&M Variable O&M Fuel Cost
12 Source: Lazard estimates. Copyright 2020 Lazard This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Components—High End Certain renewable energy generation technologies are already cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies; a key factor regarding the continued cost decline of renewable energy generation technologies is the ability of technological development and industry scale to continue lowering operating expenses and capital costs for renewable energy generation technologies
Solar PV–Rooftop Residential $211 $16 $227
Solar PV–Rooftop C&I $167 $12 $179
Solar PV–Community $83 $11 $94
Solar PV–Crystalline Utility Scale $37 $5 $42 Renewable Energy Solar PV–Thin Film Utility Scale $33 $5 $38
Solar Thermal Tower with Storage $132 $23 $156
Geothermal $75 $2 $24 $101
Wind $42 $12 $54
Gas Peaking $139 $26 $6 $28 $198
Nuclear $168 $17 $4 $9 $198 Conventional Coal $121 $15 $5 $18 $159
Gas Combined Cycle $40 $4$5 $24 $73
$0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 $225 $250 $275 Levelized Cost ($/MWh)
Capital Cost Fixed O&M Variable O&M Fuel Cost
13 Source: Lazard estimates. Copyright 2020 Lazard This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Levelized Cost of Energy Comparison—Methodology ($ in millions, unless otherwise noted) Lazard’s LCOE analysis consists of creating a power plant model representing an illustrative project for each relevant technology and solving for the $/MWh value that results in a levered IRR equal to the assumed cost of equity (see subsequent “Key Assumptions” pages for detailed assumptions by technology) Unsubsidized Wind — High Case Sample Illustrative Calculations (1) (4) Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 20 Key Assumptions Capacity (MW) (A) 175 175 175 175 175 175 Capacity (MW) 175 Capacity Factor (B) 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% 38% Capacity Factor 38% Total Generation ('000 MWh) (A) x (B) = (C)* 583 583 583 583 583 583 Fuel Cost ($/MMBtu) $0.00 Levelized Energy Cost ($/M Wh) (D) $53.7 $53.7 $53.7 $53.7 $53.7 $53.7 Heat Rate (Btu/kWh) 0 Total Revenues (C) x (D) = (E)* $31.3 $31.3 $31.3 $31.3 $31.3 $31.3 Fixed O&M ($/kW-year) $39.5 Variable O&M ($/MWh) $0.0 Total Fuel Cost (F) ------O&M Escalation Rate 2.25% Total O&M (G)* 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3 7.5 10.7 Capital Structure Total Operating Costs (F) + (G) = (H) $6.9 $7.0 $7.2 $7.3 $7.5 $10.7 Debt 60.0% Cost of Debt 8.0% EBITDA (E) - (H) = (I) $24.4 $24.3 $24.1 $23.9 $23.8 $20.6 Equity 40.0% Cost of Equity 12.0% Debt Outstanding - Beginning of Period (J) $152.3 $149.2 $146.0 $142.4 $138.6 $14.1 Debt - Interest Expense (K) (12.2) (11.9) (11.7) (11.4) (11.1) (1.1) Taxes and Tax Incentives: Debt - Principal Payment (L) (3.0) (3.3) (3.5) (3.8) (4.1) (14.1) Combined Tax Rate 40% Levelized Debt Service (K) + (L) = (M) ($15.2) ($15.2) ($15.2) ($15.2) ($15.2) ($15.2) Economic Life (years) (5) 20 MACRS Depreciation (Year Schedule) 5
EBITDA (I) $24.4 $24.3 $24.1 $23.9 $23.8 $20.6 Capex Depreciation (MACRS) (N) (50.8) (81.2) (48.7) (29.2) (29.2) -- EPC Cos ts ( $/kW) $1,450 Interest Expense (K) (12.2) (11.9) (11.7) (11.4) (11.1) (1.1) Additional Ow ner's Costs ($/kW) $0 Taxable Income (I) + (N) + (K) = (O) ($38.5) ($68.9) ($36.3) ($16.7) ($16.5) $19.4 Transmission Costs ($/kW) $0 Total Capital Costs ($/kW) $1,450 (2) Tax Benefit (Liability) (O) x (tax rate) = (P) $15.4 $27.6 $14.5 $6.7 $6.6 ($7.8) Total Capex ($mm) $254 (3) After-Tax Net Equity Cash Flow (I) + (M) + (P) = (Q) ($101.5) $24.6 $36.6 $23.4 $15.4 $15.2 ($2.4)
IRR For Equity Investors 12.0%
Source: Lazard estimates. Note: Wind—High LCOE case presented for illustrative purposes only. Technology-dependent * Denotes unit conversion. (1) Assumes half-year convention for discounting purposes. Levelized (2) Assumes full monetization of tax benefits or losses immediately. (3) Reflects initial cash outflow from equity investors. 14 (4) Reflects a “key” subset of all assumptions for methodology illustration purposes only. Does not reflect all assumptions. Copyright 2020 Lazard (5) Economic life sets debt amortization schedule. For comparison purposes, all technologies calculate LCOE on a 20-year IRR basis. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Energy Resources—Matrix of Applications Despite convergence in the LCOE of certain renewable energy and conventional generation technologies, direct comparisons must take into account issues such as location (e.g., centralized vs. distributed) and dispatch characteristics (e.g., baseload and/or dispatchable intermediate capacity vs. those of peaking or intermittent technologies)
• This analysis does not take into account potential social and environmental externalities or reliability-related considerations
Carbon Location Dispatch Neutral/ REC Load- Potential Distributed Centralized Geography Intermittent Peaking Following Baseload
Solar PV(1) Universal(2)
Solar Thermal Rural Renewable Energy Geothermal Varies
Onshore Wind Rural
Gas Peaking Universal
Nuclear Rural
Conventional
Coal Co-located or rural
Gas Universal Combined Cycle
Source: Lazard estimates. (1) Represents the full range of solar PV technologies. 15 Copyright 2020 Lazard (2) Qualification for RPS requirements varies by location. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0
Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions Solar PV Utility Scale— Utility Scale— Rooftop—Residential Rooftop—C&I Community Crystalline(1) Thin Film(1) Low High Low High Low High Low High Low High Units Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
Net Facility Output MW 0.005 0.005 1 1 5 5 150 150 150 150
EPC Cost $/kW $2,525 $2,825 $1,600 $2,825 $1,300 $1,500 $975 $825 $975 $825
Capital Cost During Construction $/kW –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Total Capital Cost $/kW $2,525 $2,825 $1,600 $2,825 $1,300 $1,500 $975 $825 $975 $825
Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $15.00 $18.00 $11.75 $18.00 $12.00 $16.00 $13.50 $9.50 $9.50 $13.50
Variable O&M $/MWh –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Heat Rate Btu/kWh –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Capacity Factor % 18% 13% 23% 17% 21% 17% 34% 21% 36% 23%
Fuel Price $/MMBtu –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Construction Time Months 3 3 3 3 4 4 9 9 9 9
Facility Life Years 25 25 25 25 30 30 30 30 30 30
CO2 Emissions lb/MWh –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $150 $227 $74 $179 $63 $94 $31 $42 $29 $38
Source: Lazard estimates. 16 (1) The “Low Case” represents assumptions used to calculate the low end of the LCOE range, representing a project with single-axis tracking. The “High Case” represents assumptions used to Copyright 2020 Lazard calculate the high end of the LCOE range, representing a project with fixed-tilt design. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0
Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)
Solar Thermal Tower with Geothermal Wind—Onshore Wind—Offshore Storage(1) Low High Low High Low High Low High Units Case Case Case Case Case Case Case Case
Net Facility Output MW 110 150 20 50 175 175 210 385
EPC Cost $/kW $7,950 $5,250 $3,950 $5,300 $1,050 $1,450 $2,600 $3,675
Capital Cost During Construction $/kW $1,150 $750 $550 $750 –– –– –– ––
Total Capital Cost(2) $/kW $9,090 $6,000 $4,500 $6,050 $1,050 $1,450 $2,600 $3,675
Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $75.00 $80.00 $13.00 $14.00 $27.00 $39.50 $67.25 $81.75
Variable O&M $/MWh –– –– $9.00 $24.00 –– –– –– ––
Heat Rate Btu/kWh –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Capacity Factor % 68% 39% 90% 80% 55% 38% 52% 48%
Fuel Price $/MMBtu –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Construction Time Months 36 36 36 36 12 12 12 12
Facility Life Years 35 35 25 25 20 20 20 20
CO2 Emissions lb/MWh –– –– –– –– –– –– –– ––
Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $126 $156 $59 $101 $26 $54 $69 $104
Source: Lazard estimates. (1) The “Low Case” represents assumptions used to calculate the low end of the LCOE range, representing a project with 18 hours of storage capacity. The “High Case” represents 17 assumptions used to calculate the high end of the LCOE range, representing a project with eight hours of storage. Copyright 2020 Lazard (2) Includes capitalized financing costs during construction for generation types with over 12 months of construction time. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0
Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)
Gas Combined Cycle Gas Peaking Nuclear (New Build) Coal (New Build) (New Build) Low High Low High Low High Low High Units Case Case Case Case Case Case(3) Case Case
Net Facility Output MW 240 50 2,200 2,200 600 600 550 550
EPC Cost $/kW $675 $875 $6,025 $9,800 $2,350 $4,925 $650 $1,150
Capital Cost During Construction $/kW $25 $50 $1,650 $2,700 $550 $1,300 $50 $100
Total Capital Cost(1) $/kW $700 $925 $7,675 $12,500 $2,900 $6,225 $700 $1,250
Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $7.25 $22.75 $119.00 $133.25 $39.75 $83.00 $14.50 $18.50
Variable O&M $/MWh $4.25 $5.75 $3.75 $4.25 $2.75 $5.00 $2.75 $5.00
Heat Rate Btu/kWh 9,800 8,000 10,450 10,450 8,750 12,000 6,150 6,900
Capacity Factor % 10% 10% 92% 89% 83% 63% 70% 50%
Fuel Price $/MMBtu $3.45 $3.45 $0.85 $0.85 $1.45 $1.45 $3.45 $3.45
Construction Time Months 12 18 69 69 60 66 24 24
Facility Life Years 20 20 40 40 40 40 20 20
(2) (3) CO2 Emissions lb/MWh 1,147 936 –– –– 1,839 252 720 807
Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $151 $198 $129 $198 $65 $159 $44 $73
Source: Lazard estimates. (1) Includes capitalized financing costs during construction for generation types with over 12 months of construction time. 18 (2) CO2 emissions calculated based on U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates of CO2 emission coefficients by fuel type and the plant heat rates indicated above. Copyright 2020 Lazard (3) Reflects a coal plant with 2,522 lb/MWh of CO2 emissions operating with a 90% carbon capture and storage system. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0
Levelized Cost of Energy—Key Assumptions (cont’d)
Gas Combined Cycle Nuclear (Operating) Coal (Operating) (Operating) Low High Low High Low High Units Case Case Case Case Case Case 2,200 2,200 600 600 550 550 Net Facility Output MW
EPC Cost $/kW –– –– –– –– –– ––
Capital Cost During Construction $/kW –– –– –– –– –– ––
Total Capital Cost $/kW –– –– –– –– –– ––
Fixed O&M $/kW-yr $82.80 $103.10 $23.20 $40.30 $9.40 $11.70
Variable O&M $/MWh $2.50 $3.50 $2.70 $6.00 $0.70 $1.50
Heat Rate Btu/kWh 10,400 10,400 10,075 11,275 6,900 7,475
Capacity Factor % 97% 89% 35% 65% 69% 45%
Fuel Price $/MMBtu $0.70 $0.80 $1.90 $2.50 $2.60 $3.20
Construction Time Months –– –– –– –– –– ––
Facility Life Years 40 40 40 40 20 20
(1) CO2 Emissions lb/MWh –– –– 2,118 2,370 807 875
Levelized Cost of Energy $/MWh $25 $32 $34 $48 $23 $32
Source: Lazard estimates. 19 Copyright 2020 Lazard (1) CO2 emissions calculated based on U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates of CO2 emission coefficients by fuel type and the plant heat rates indicated above. This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard. LAZARD’S LEVELIZED COST OF ENERGY ANALYSIS— VERSION 14.0 Summary Considerations Lazard has conducted this analysis comparing the LCOE for various conventional and renewable energy generation technologies in order to understand which renewable energy generation technologies may be cost-competitive with conventional generation technologies, either now or in the future, and under various operating assumptions. We find that renewable energy technologies are complementary to conventional generation technologies, and believe that their use will be increasingly prevalent for a variety of reasons, including to mitigate the environmental and social consequences of various conventional generation technologies, RPS requirements, carbon regulations, continually improving economics as underlying technologies improve and production volumes increase, and supportive regulatory frameworks in certain regions.
In this analysis, Lazard’s approach was to determine the LCOE, on a $/MWh basis, that would provide an after-tax IRR to equity holders equal to an assumed cost of equity capital. Certain assumptions (e.g., required debt and equity returns, capital structure, etc.) were identical for all technologies in order to isolate the effects of key differentiated inputs such as investment costs, capacity factors, operating costs, fuel costs (where relevant) and other important metrics. These inputs were originally developed with a leading consulting and engineering firm to the Power & Energy Industry, augmented with Lazard’s commercial knowledge where relevant. This analysis (as well as previous versions) has benefited from additional input from a wide variety of Industry participants and is informed by Lazard’s many client interactions on this topic.
Lazard has not manipulated the cost of capital or capital structure for various technologies, as the goal of this analysis is to compare the current levelized cost of various generation technologies, rather than the benefits of financial engineering. The results contained herein would be altered by different assumptions regarding capital structure (e.g., increased use of leverage) or the cost of capital (e.g., a willingness to accept lower returns than those assumed herein).
Key sensitivities examined included fuel costs, tax subsidies, carbon pricing and costs of capital. Other factors would also have a potentially significant effect on the results contained herein, but have not been examined in the scope of this current analysis. These additional factors, among others, could include: capacity value vs. energy value; network upgrades, transmission, congestion or other integration-related costs; significant permitting or other development costs, unless otherwise noted; and other costs of complying with various environmental regulations (e.g., carbon emissions offsets or emissions control systems). This analysis also does not address potential social and environmental externalities, including, for example, the social costs and rate consequences for those who cannot afford distributed generation solutions, as well as the long-term residual and societal consequences of various conventional generation technologies that are difficult to measure (e.g., nuclear waste disposal, airborne pollutants, greenhouse gases, etc.).
20 Copyright 2020 Lazard This study has been prepared by Lazard for general informational purposes only, and it is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, financial or other advice. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior consent of Lazard.