02. INDIAN ASCENT

India is increasingly a focal point for the fashion industry, reflecting a rapidly growing middle-class and increasingly powerful manufacturing sector. These, together with strong economic fundamentals and growing tech-savvy, make too important for international brands to ignore.

Economic expansion is happening across Asia, good, happy to feel good and are expanding the but we expect that 2019 will be the year in which consumption of today.” India will take centre stage. The country is being Given these dynamics, it is little surprise propelled by strong macroeconomic tailwinds that more than 300 international fashion brands and is predicted to grow 8 percent a year between

The State of Fashion 2019 The State of Fashion are expected to open stores in India in the next two 2018 and 2022. The Indian middle class is forecast years. But India remains a complex market, which to expand at 19.4 percent a year over the same presents challenges as well as opportunities. period, outpacing China, Mexico and Brazil.8 The apparel business is still largely “unorganised,” As a result, India is set to move from being an with formal retail accounting for just 35 percent of increasingly important sourcing hub to being one sales in 2016. Its share is likely to reach around 45 of the most attractive consumer markets outside percent by 2025,10 still a relatively low proportion. the Western world. To build momentum around conventional India’s apparel market will be worth $59.3 stores, Indian players are innovating the retail billion in 2022, making it the sixth-largest in the experience. Retailers are leveraging technology world, and comparable to the UK ($65 billion) and to enhance the in-store experience with digital Germany ($63.1 billion), according to data from marketing displays and improved check-out. McKinsey’s FashionScope. The aggregate income For instance, Madura Fashion & Lifestyle launched of the addressable population (individuals with the “Van Heusen Style Studio,” which uses over $9,500 in annual income) is expected to triple augmented reality to display outfits on customers. between now and 2025.9 According to Sanjay Malls have increased their share of food service Kapoor, founder of Genesis Luxury, an Indian and entertainment. luxury retail conglomerate, higher incomes are likely to create a whole new class of consumer: The growth in the apparel sector is also “We are moving on towards the ‘gold collar’ being driven by increasing tech-savviness among worker. It’s a term that defines the well paid, consumers. Ten years ago, technology was for highly paid professionals, who are happy to look the few, with just five million smartphones11 in a

24 02. Indian Ascent

country of 1.2 billion people and only 45 million labour cost is significantly lower than China’s and using the Internet.12 These figures have since comparable with Vietnam’s. There is also a high increased to 355 million and 460 million respec- availability of raw materials (e.g., cotton, wool, silk, tively (2018) and are expected to double by 2021, and jute), which enable participation in the entire when more than 900 million Indian consumers fashion value chain. will be online. Still, players looking to enter the E-commerce leaders are moving to Indian market should recognise several inherent AI-based solutions. “Personalisation and curation, challenges. First, India is a mosaic of climates and based on personal taste will become a lot more tastes. “If you break [India] up into four parts, i.e., important,” says Ananth Narayanan, chief north, east, south and west, North India is the only executive of Myntra, a fashion e-commerce player region which is going to have winter, where you acquired by Flipkart in 2014. “It’s not about having have mild to severe winter for eight weeks,” the largest selection, it’s about presenting the most says Kapoor. appropriate selection to the customer involved.” “Brands that are successful in India have The supply side of the industry is equally understood that, how [Indians] consume, what robust, and the growth of textile and apparel colour they consume, what kind of designs work, exports is expected to accelerate. According what touch points and personalisation work may to a 2017 McKinsey survey, 41 percent of chief be very diferent from a consumer living in New procurement ofcers expect to increase their York or Hong Kong,” Kapoor adds. “Indian women sourcing share from India.13 India’s average have kept a lot of their traditional sensibilities alive Brian Sokol/Bloomberg via Getty Images Getty via Sokol/Bloomberg Brian

25 Global Economy

and you see a beautiful mix of both Indian and and the middle class is at its highest level in 92 Western sensibilities across the spectrum.” years.18 Another consideration is the possibility of corruption. According to Transparency International companies considering International, India ranks 81stout of 180 countries an entry into India should heed this important on its Corruption Perception Index (versus China message. Traditional clothing is still very much the at 77).19 A significant number of licences is required default choice for women, making up an estimated for new entrants, so executives should beware of 70 percent of women’s apparel sales in 2017. the potential for complicated negotiations. Appetite for Western styles is likely to increase, but it is expected that traditional wear will still Still, many brands are determined to account for a 65 percent market share by 2023.14 take advantage of India’s blossoming growth. The majority are likely to choose one of three “We are moving on towards the routes. First, players can partner with existing ‘gold collar’ worker. It’s a term e-commerce platforms. This is most suitable for players with little brand awareness and with that defines the well paid, highly relatively low capital to invest, and ofers a good paid professionals, who are way to test demand and customer preferences. happy to look good, happy to Second, brands that have little local knowledge and are looking for fast entry can enter with a feel good and are expanding the franchise model, developing brick and mortar consumption of today.” retail spaces. Finally, players that have significant local knowledge and capital resources can create

The State of Fashion 2019 The State of Fashion fully owned and operated stores. Another challenge is the low quality of India’s infrastructure, which continues to Indian authorities are certainly keen to lag behind that of many other Asian countries. promote investment. Relaxed FDI regulations Nearly 40 percent of the Indian road network was (e.g., allowing 100 percent foreign-owned single unpaved as of 2016.15 Poor infrastructure can make brand retail operations), will likely lead to more last-mile delivery difcult. In addition, retail stock overseas-originated activity through the value is also often below expectations. chain. We expect more outsourcing and more brand-owned stores without Indian partners in However, there are signs of improvement. the years ahead. Most activity is likely to be “We have two fantastic luxury malls coming up focused on major urban centres, reflecting in Bombay at the Bandra Kurla Complex along demographic trends, rising urban consumer with the convention centre,” says Darshan Mehta, spending power and improving infrastructure founder and chief executive of Reliance Brands, in those areas. which operates over 500 stores for international brands. “So there is a whole new fantastic retail In short, the Indian market ofers ecosystem.”16 great promise. Despite structural challenges that include inequality, infrastructure and market One sign of India’s challenges, and also fragmentation, we expect strong economic growth, an indication of latent demand, is the growing scale and rising tech-savviness will combine to level of inequality in the country, which follows a make it the next big global opportunity in fashion broader global trend of rising income inequality.17 and apparel. The gap between the top one percent of earners

26 02. Indian Ascent

Of the top emerging markets, India’s GDP is expected to grow at the highest rate

Exhibit 6: India powers ahead of other major emerging markets

Real GDP CAGR 2018-22 forecast, %

India 8.0

China 6.1

Turkey 3.7

Mexico 3.0

Brazil 2.3

Russia 1.5

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

27 Executive Interview Darshan Mehta President & Chief Executive of Reliance Brands

BoF: If you look at most The chief executive of the fashion five-year forecasts, growth division of Reliance Industries, India’s projections for India’s apparel market and the largest private sector conglomerate with broader economy are quite

The State of Fashion 2019 The State of Fashion impressive. But just how consolidated turnover of $63 billion, upbeat do you feel about business opportunities talks about seizing opportunities in the in 2019? fastest growing major economy DM: Very upbeat. Last quarter our GDP grew 7.7 percent. in the world. So, we continue to retain the highest GDP growth in the world and everything prime — by Robb Young minister Narendra Modi is doing — barring currency pressure — looks very good. For a very long time, the Emporio Mall in became a bit of torch bearer of luxury [moving] out of five-star hotel lobbies into the mainstream consumer mindset. Ten years later we now have two fantastic luxury malls opening in Bombay so there is a whole new fantastic retail ecosystem. The Jio World Centre and Maker Maxity, both coming

28 02. Indian Ascent

out of within a kilometre distance DM: I think mid- to the high-end Trump government and their to each other and Bandra Kurla because there is natural pro- approach [to] trade wars [are Complex, are going to increase gression upwards. It’s what I call another concern]. competition. [going from] the hundred dollars The second is the rise of oil to the thousands of dollars. prices, especially given that India produces negligible amounts “Every time you look at India through the of its own oil and is largely dependent on oil imports. This Chinese lens you will not see [the opportunity] is [worsened by] a rupee-dollar correctly. India is a whole diferent ball game. exchange rate which has eroded In India, it is not about the traditionally rich by close to six to seven percent since the beginning of 2018. Indians — they shop all over the world. It is From a consumer [spending] about the 999 others who are the customers point of view, it’s not always easy. of tomorrow.” You can either pass on the impact in volume shrink or you can have… deeper and more frequent BoF: Indeed. One of the BoF: What we hear about discount on the product — both biggest challenges for fashion most are the middle classes of which erode the margin. in India has been the lack of swelling resulting in a The [other issue] is… the price retail infrastructure. Is this massive boost in more value equation, which is getting changing? Could 2019 be a afordable fashion segments. substantially reset [due to the watershed year? Is it premature for us to commoditisation of our sector expect the Indian middle DM: Absolutely, I think in the by] the likes of Amazon and classes to make a big impres- same way that 2008 was. In 2008, Flipkart. After the US, India is sion in lower end brands? the Emporio Mall started but seen as possibly the next [market the challenge with the Emporio DM: There are some categories where this will happen], so that’s was that unfortunately it was the where marketers and brands a worry. same year the terrorist attacks already reaped what we call the happened in Oberoi and the Taj democratic dividend of the rich BoF: Let’s talk more about Hotel in Bombay. It took away middle class. In a lot of these that. There is so much some of the wind from the sails categories, individual players dynamism happening but nonetheless the Emporio have worked very hard to create in Indian e-commerce marked a bit of a turning point. the [right] price-value equation. market; how bullish are you I think 2019 is going to be similar, Fashion spending and trading up about e-commerce as an we are going to see a very big in the category should become opportunity for a business change. Quest Mall in Calcutta a habit and it is, but I think the like yours, which is skewed is doing well; Palladium Mall fashion industry overall has not more toward luxury? in , early days, but you done enough. can see the traction is building; DM: Very bullish. We’ve created in Saket [an upmarket suburb very clever software where BoF: Despite the upbeat of Delhi], the DLF mall is going all our stores’ inventories are climate, India is still not through a complete overhaul parallelly given digital exposure. an easy place to do business. [and then you have the new Last year a significant portion of What sort of pain-points malls so] we are going our brick-and-mortar sales [were worry you most? to see quite a bit of activity. driven by] online. It also doesn’t DM: One of the biggest worries, [impair] the price-value equation BoF: Which categories or which could become a substantial because it is one inventory, one segments do you think will pain-point, is the forex situation. image and one price. For a place reap the most benefits? The economics of the Donald like India, which has pockets of

29 Executive Interview

wealth, I am able to have access understanding do Western to that because those pockets of executives now have of the wealth may still not be ready for Indian luxury consumer? a fully-fledged store, [but] the DM: The singular mistake that customers that exist in the town they make is that the European can still shop through my store. mindset comes from a few centuries of inherited riches. BoF: Reliance recently upped In India we’re now looking at its stake in Genesis Luxury the first wave of what I call first Fashion, the Indian group generation wealth, which spends that distributes brands like very diferently than inherited Bottega Veneta, Giorgio wealth. On the one hand, it is a Armani, Michael Kors and very rich and powerful consumer Coach and has a joint venture movement because new wealth with Burberry for the Indian has an innate need to announce market. Does Reliance have itself in many ways and fashion ambitions to become a luxury is clearly one of the ways. Yet, conglomerate along the lines on the other hand, first genera- of an Indian LVMH? tion wealth also has very sharp DM: We’re certainly not trying and recent memory of how that to clone anyone else. When wealth was created and hence the Genesis opportunity came, they spend diferently because it we knew that they had a whole is the wealth creator [himself or bunch of private equity players herself] who is spending it. who were not so strategic in their Second, because geographically approach. We saw a good oppor- we are juxtaposed to China, every

The State of Fashion 2019 The State of Fashion tunity when L Catterton wanted time you look at India through to exit and bought out all the the Chinese lens you will not other private equity players. see [the opportunity] correctly. [Genesis Luxury founder] Sanjay India is a whole diferent ball Kapoor had created a good pool game. In India, it is not about of talent, a good entrepreneurial the traditionally rich Indians — ecosystem, some high-quality they shop all over the world. It real estate, and a great brand is about the 999 others who are portfolio, all of which sat well the customers of tomorrow, who [with us]. We will never be will find it too intimidating to go predatory in nature, so having into the five-star hotel lobby or a bought the first 40 percent gallery to shop there. So [former [stake] our intention was to sit as Burberry chief executive] Angela a new partner along with Sanjay Ahrendts came and took the and his other partners to create bold decision to set a Burberry more value. opposite a Zara store [because] a woman coming out of the Zara BoF: Through Reliance’s store will feel less intimidated direct partnerships with to go window shopping at the brands like Zegna, Diesel Burberry store. and Bally, you have daily contact with many Western This interview has been edited and luxury executives. Generally condensed. speaking, how good of an

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