V21, 31 Thursday, April 14, 2016 Momentum appears to be with Young Young to post $750K for quarter, $3.7M for cycle, and is running TV statewide By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS – The Republican U.S. Senate race is reaching critical mass, and many indicators suggest that U.S. Rep. Todd Young is pulling away. When the Bloomington Republican files his campaign finance documents on Friday, it will report raising over $750,000 for the first quarter of 2016, and nearly $3.7 million for the cycle. The cam- paign for the U.S. Sen- ate seat also points out that for the cycle, more than 70% of the as Todd Young is.” campaign’s individual donors are from Indiana. An email to Club For Growth President David The campaign of U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman de- McIntosh asking about its support for Stutzman brought clined to release its FEC totals, with campaign manager no response. In March, McIntosh told HPI that the Club Joshua Kelley telling Howey Politics Indiana on Wednes- would make decisions on behalf of Stutzman in early April. day, “We’re not as caught up in quarter by quarter filings Continued on page 3 Banks has 3rd CD edge By MARK SOUDER FORT WAYNE – In northeast Indiana, a significant number of Democrats often vote in the Republican pri- mary in order to influence local elections, since seldom do Democrats have seriously contested primaries. When they do so, our region’s numbers “I relish the opportunity to run look significantly different. For example, in 2008 I against him. I don’t feel like he received 40,161 votes in the really won that race in 2010, he primary out of 52,000 Re- publican congressional votes was a beneficiary of the political cast. My Democrat opponent received 76,428. The presiden- times.” tial contest between President - Democrat Baron Hill Obama and Hillary, not to mention the hot gubernatorial campaigning in Fort Wayne, battle, certainly influenced the talking about Todd Young Democrat primary vote. Page 2 In the 2010 primary, an off- ers come heavily from the 2nd District year race, I was targeted by many since Galloway was instrumental in conservatives and the Democrats State Rep. Curt Nisly’s victory over saw an opportunity. The Democrat moderate State Rep. Rebecca Kubacki. congressional primary vote was only Galloway served in the Wisconsin 11,000, an incredible drop from legislature but has not been much of a 76,000. My primary vote remained factor in this race. roughly the same (38,441) but the to- Banks has run the style of tal GOP congressional vote increased campaign that has always prevailed to over 80,000. in the 3rd. He has the endorsements Howey Politics Indiana These points are suddenly of every type of major conservative WWHowey Media, LLC 405 salient again as the Trump train heads group. His public support from elected Massachusetts Ave., Suite our way. Will the Sanders and Clinton officials is impressive, especially in 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 races keep Dems busy as in 2008? Allen County. His donor list is di- That could mean 20,000-plus primary verse and strong. He has the support www.howeypolitics.com votes in northeast Indiana going to of Therese Brown, Paula Hughes, Democrats rather Brian A. Howey, Publisher than Republicans. If Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington so, what sort of new Jack E. Howey, Editor Republican primary voters will Trump Mary Lou Howey, Editor actually bring? Maureen Hayden, Statehouse The 2016 Mark Curry, photography 3rd congressio- nal race remains somewhat in flux, Subscriptions though State Sen. HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 Jim Banks continues HPI Weekly, $350 to have a steady Ray Volpe, Account Manager and solidly based 317.602.3620 edge. State Sen. Liz Brown began as Linda Buskirk, Cathy Hawks, and the leader, having run for office mul- other prominent female Republicans. email: [email protected] tiple times in Fort Wayne. However, Though Banks dominates the evangel- Contact HPI similar to her failed mayoral campaign ical cluster, prominent Catholic leader [email protected] against Paula Hughes, Brown lags city councilman Tom Didier is actively Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 behind in fundraising and has not built supporting Banks. In other words, his as strong a grassroots campaign as campaign has balance. Washington: 202.256.5822 Banks (though better than the other Banks has also been able to Business Office: 317.602.3620 candidates). keep up with Tom thus far in spend- Beginning with almost zero ing, whereas Brown has not. We © 2016, Howey Politics name identification, Kip Tom has spent have received at least four pieces of Indiana. All rights reserved. large sums of money trying to buy his mail for both Banks and Tom at our way into the area’s consciousness. He house, one for Galloway, and none Photocopying, Internet forward- is the area’s largest corporate farmer. from Brown. Galloway, Banks and Tom ing, faxing or reproducing in His government subsidies dwarf oth- are all utilizing social media. Banks any form, whole or part, is a ers, including Marlin Stutzman’s. Tom’s is dominating WOWO, the influential violation of federal law without most apparent appeal has been to talk radio station. Tom and Banks are permission from the publisher. others who have received government pounding television, whereas Brown largesse. His Sycamore C.C. fundraiser has just gone up. was a “who’s who” of people who The television ads from receive government subsidies for their Tom, Banks and Brown lay out each businesses. They have formed a loyal campaign’s strategy. Kip Tom, sensing ring around Tom. his weaknesses, has featured ads that Pam Galloway, like Tom, lives attempt to blur them. For example, barely inside the northwest district Tom appears on a tractor, looking like line in an area more closely associated a “common man.” However, he’s a with South Bend. Her political support- wealthy corporate farmer who dis- Page 3 dains the small farmer, whom he called “Joe Farmer” in a shaky, complaining ineffectively about campaign spend- magazine interview. He said that Joe Farmer milks cows ing. The part featuring Liz herself is outstanding. She, in the morning, whereas he reads the Wall Street Journal; like Banks, includes her husband. She also stresses her that while Joe Farmer chews cud down at the diner, Tom conservative legislative record as opposed to just making compares notes with medical device executives. That’s declarations. fine. But in northeast Indiana, the farmers he’s pretending If the election were just based upon electronic to be like in his ad hang out at local restaurants with other media, it would be a close battle in quality. But frequency farmers. also matters. The media battle is a tough fight between Tom’s positive ads are all politically strong, but Tom and Banks. However, it is likely that the final weeks his first negative ad was less so. It criticized all three op- will be dominated by Trump talk and media, for and ponents for having sought public office multiple times and against him. So the early edge was extremely important. is confusing. His other problems include lack of a “ground And the ground game will matter. Here Banks, as we game” and his history on social issues. It also bothers me noted, has a huge edge. that, like Marlin Stutzman, Kip Tom has no college degree. Who votes in the Republican primary is the Seriously, we don’t need two congressmen in a row who wild card. A surge in Trump voters would add unpredict- didn’t graduate from college. ability. Kip Tom, with his international agriculture invest- Banks’ ads stress his service in Afghanistan, his ments in South America, millions in federal subsidies, and conservative endorsements, and heavily feature his wife disdain for common laborers, would not seem to be a good Amanda and their three young girls. The weaknesses fit. Jim Banks’ focus on veterans’ issues could turn out to of his ads are possibly an over-emphasis on his military be important if the “Gods, guns and country” vote surges. service as well as letting Tom and Brown get the initial The Trump effect will be captivating to watch. Of advantage on the pro-life question which is ironic, since course, so are train wrecks. Primary Horse Race Sta- both Jim and Amanda have long been right-to-life leaders. tus: Leans Banksv Brown has also been a steadfast pro-life leader, whereas Tom just asserts that he’s pro-life. But winning elections is Souder is a former Republican congressman in the about what voters know, not what they don’t know. 3rd CD. He is a regular Howey Politics Indiana con- Liz Brown’s first television ad, like those of Tom tributor. and Banks, is expertly produced. The first part is a bit televised debate between Young and Stutzman. Sponsored Young, from page 1 by the Indiana Debate Commission, it will take place at 7 p.m. Monday at WFYI-TV in Indianapolis. The debate will “You’re getting the same releases we are,” Kelley told HPI be moderated by political science Prof. Elizabeth Bennion when he was asked about what the Club, the Senate Con- of Indiana University at South Bend. servative Fund and FreedomWorks would be doing for the Young launched a campaign TV this week compar- campaign. ing the Bloomington Republican’s military background to On the airwaves, Young is running network TV in the Indianapolis market, and cable statewide. The Senate Leadership Fund and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce are running a full volley of ads in the $500,000 range.