Meeting Programme
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Portugal – an Atlantic Extreme Weather Lab
Portugal – an Atlantic extreme weather lab Nuno Moreira ([email protected]) 6th HIGH-LEVEL INDUSTRY-SCIENCE-GOVERNMENT DIALOGUE ON ATLANTIC INTERACTIONS ALL-ATLANTIC SUMMIT ON INNOVATION FOR SUSTAINABLE MARINE DEVELOPMENT AND THE BLUE ECONOMY: FOSTERING ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN A POST-PANDEMIC WORLD 7th October 2020 Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. Portugal in the track of extreme extra-tropical storms Spatial distribution of positions where rapid cyclogenesis reach their minimum central pressure Azores and mainland Portugal On average: 1 rapid cyclogenesis every 1 or 2 wet seasons ECMWF ERA 40 (1958-2000) Events per DJFM season: Source: Trigo, I., 2006: Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Climate Dynamics volume 26, pages127–143. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 Source: Pinto, P. and Belo-Pereira, M., 2020: Damaging Convective and Non-Convective Winds in Southwestern Iberia during Windstorm Xola. Atmosphere, 11(7), 692. … affected by sting jets of extra-tropical storms… Example of a rapid cyclogenesis with a sting jet over mainland Maximum wind gusts: Official station 140 km/h Private station 00:00 UTC, 23 Dec 2009 203 km/h (in the most affected area) Source: Pinto, P. -
The Poleward Motion of Extratropical Cyclones from a Potential Vorticity Tendency Analysis
APRIL 2016 T A M A R I N A N D K A S P I 1687 The Poleward Motion of Extratropical Cyclones from a Potential Vorticity Tendency Analysis TALIA TAMARIN AND YOHAI KASPI Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Weizmann Institute of Sciences, Rehovot, Israel (Manuscript received 22 June 2015, in final form 26 October 2015) ABSTRACT The poleward propagation of midlatitude storms is studied using a potential vorticity (PV) tendency analysis of cyclone-tracking composites, in an idealized zonally symmetric moist GCM. A detailed PV budget reveals the important role of the upper-level PV and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. During the growth stage, the classic picture of baroclinic instability emerges, with an upper-level PV to the west of a low-level PV associated with the cyclone. This configuration not only promotes intensification, but also a poleward tendency that results from the nonlinear advection of the low-level anomaly by the upper- level PV. The separate contributions of the upper- and lower-level PV as well as the surface temperature anomaly are analyzed using a piecewise PV inversion, which shows the importance of the upper-level PV anomaly in advecting the cyclone poleward. The PV analysis also emphasizes the crucial role played by latent heat release in the poleward motion of the cyclone. The latent heat release tends to maximize on the northeastern side of cyclones, where the warm and moist air ascends. A positive PV tendency results at lower levels, propagating the anomaly eastward and poleward. It is also shown here that stronger cyclones have stronger latent heat release and poleward advection, hence, larger poleward propagation. -
Program At-A-Glance
Sunday, 29 September 2019 Dinner (6:30–8:00 PM) ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ Monday, 30 September 2019 Breakfast (7:00–8:00 AM) Session 1: Extratropical Cyclone Structure and Dynamics: Part I (8:00–10:00 AM) Chair: Michael Riemer Time Author(s) Title 8:00–8:40 Spengler 100th Anniversary of the Bergen School of Meteorology Paper Raveh-Rubin 8:40–9:00 Climatology and Dynamics of the Link Between Dry Intrusions and Cold Fronts and Catto Tochimoto 9:00–9:20 Structures of Extratropical Cyclones Developing in Pacific Storm Track and Niino 9:20–9:40 Sinclair and Dacre Poleward Moisture Transport by Extratropical Cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere 9:40–10:00 Discussion Break (10:00–10:30 AM) Session 2: Jet Dynamics and Diagnostics (10:30 AM–12:10 PM) Chair: Victoria Sinclair Time Author(s) Title Breeden 10:30–10:50 Evidence for Nonlinear Processes in Fostering a North Pacific Jet Retraction and Martin Finocchio How the Jet Stream Controls the Downstream Response to Recurving 10:50–11:10 and Doyle Tropical Cyclones: Insights from Idealized Simulations 11:10–11:30 Madsen and Martin Exploring Characteristic Intraseasonal Transitions of the Wintertime Pacific Jet Stream The Role of Subsidence during the Development of North American 11:30–11:50 Winters et al. Polar/Subtropical Jet Superpositions 11:50–12:10 Discussion Lunch (12:10–1:10 PM) Session 3: Rossby Waves (1:10–3:10 PM) Chair: Annika Oertel Time Author(s) Title Recurrent Synoptic-Scale Rossby Wave Patterns and Their Effect on the Persistence of 1:10–1:30 Röthlisberger et al. -
Idealised Simulations of Stingjet Cyclones
Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones Article Published Version Baker, L. H., Gray, S. L. and Clark, P. A. (2014) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 140 (678). pp. 96-110. ISSN 1477-870X doi: https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/33269/ It is advisable to refer to the publisher's version if you intend to cite from the work. Published version at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/qj.2131/full To link to this article DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/qj.2131 Publisher: Royal Meteorological Society All outputs in CentAUR are protected by Intellectual Property Rights law, including copyright law. Copyright and IPR is retained by the creators or other copyright holders. Terms and conditions for use of this material are defined in the End User Agreement . www.reading.ac.uk/centaur CentAUR Central Archive at the University of Reading Reading's research outputs online Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. (2013) Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones L. H. Baker,* S. L. Gray and P. A. Clark Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, UK *Correspondence to: L. H. Baker, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading RG6 6BB, UK. E-mail: [email protected] An idealised modelling study of sting-jet cyclones is presented. Sting jets are descend- ing mesoscale jets that occur in some extratropical cyclones and produce localised regions of strong low-level winds in the frontal fracture region. -
The Life Cycle of Upper-Level Troughs and Ridges: a Novel Detection Method, Climatologies and Lagrangian Characteristics
Weather Clim. Dynam., 1, 459–479, 2020 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-459-2020 © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. The life cycle of upper-level troughs and ridges: a novel detection method, climatologies and Lagrangian characteristics Sebastian Schemm, Stefan Rüdisühli, and Michael Sprenger Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland Correspondence: Sebastian Schemm ([email protected]) Received: 12 March 2020 – Discussion started: 3 April 2020 Revised: 4 August 2020 – Accepted: 26 August 2020 – Published: 10 September 2020 Abstract. A novel method is introduced to identify and track diagnostics such as E vectors. During La Niña, the situa- the life cycle of upper-level troughs and ridges. The aim is tion is essentially reversed. The orientation of troughs and to close the existing gap between methods that detect the ridges also depends on the jet position. For example, dur- initiation phase of upper-level Rossby wave development ing midwinter over the Pacific, when the subtropical jet is and methods that detect Rossby wave breaking and decay- strongest and located farthest equatorward, cyclonically ori- ing waves. The presented method quantifies the horizontal ented troughs and ridges dominate the climatology. Finally, trough and ridge orientation and identifies the correspond- the identified troughs and ridges are used as starting points ing trough and ridge axes. These allow us to study the dy- for 24 h backward parcel trajectories, and a discussion of the namics of pre- and post-trough–ridge regions separately. The distribution of pressure, potential temperature and potential method is based on the curvature of the geopotential height vorticity changes along the trajectories is provided to give in- at a given isobaric surface and is computationally efficient. -
ECSS 2009 Abstracts by Session
th 5 European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY ECSS 2009 Abstracts by session ECSS 2009 - 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12-16 October 2009 - Landshut – GERMANY List of the abstract accepted for presentation at the conference: O – Oral presentation P – Poster presentation Session 08: (Extra-)tropical cyclones: embedded thunderstorms and large-scale wind fields Page Type Abstract Title Author(s) Sensitivities of Mediterranean intense cyclones: analysis O L. Garcies, V. Homar and verification A study of generation of available potential energy in South 247 O A. Vetrov, N. Kalinin cyclones and hazard events over the Ural 249 O Lightning activity in hurricanes C. Price, Y. Yair, M. Asfur O Sting jets in climatological datasets O. Martinez-Alvarado, S. Gray 251 O Cold-season mesoscale convective systems in Germany C. Gatzen, T. Púčik Comparison of two cold-season mesoscale convective 253 P C. Gatzen, T. Púčik, D. Ryva systems Klaus over Basque Country: local characteristics and 255 P S. Gaztelumendi, J. Egaña Euskalmet operational aspects A. Schneidereit, K. Riemann- North-Atlantic extra-tropical cyclone intensities, wind 257 P Campe, R. Blender, K. Fraedrich, fields, and CAPE F. Lunkeit Klaus overview and comparison with other cases affecting 259 P J. Egaña, S. Gaztelumendi Basque country area A numerical study of the windstorm Klaus: role of the sea 261 P surface temperature and domain size N. Tartaglione, R. Caballero 245 246 5th European Conference on Severe Storms 12 - 16 October 2009 - Landshut - GERMANY A STUDY OF GENERATION OF AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY IN SOUTH CYCLONES AND HAZARD EVENTS OVER THE URAL A.Vetrov1, N. -
Investigating Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in North American Winter Storm Track Simulations
Clim Dyn DOI 10.1007/s00382-017-3723-9 Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations E. D. Poan1 · P. Gachon2 · R. Laprise1 · R. Aider3 · G. Dueymes1 Received: 5 August 2016 / Accepted: 2 May 2017 © The Author(s) 2017. This article is an open access publication Abstract Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly and over regions with large water masses are significantly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM- a framework using possibilities given by regional climate driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity dur- is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA ing winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic period (1981–2005) is considered to assess EC activity coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal- reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Cana- to handle storm temporal ‘seriality’, as a measure of their dian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and temporal variability at a given location. -
'Lothar Successor' - the Forgotten Storm After Christmas 1999
Phenomenological examination of 'Lothar Successor' - the forgotten storm after Christmas 1999 by F. Welzenbach Institute for Meteorology and Geophysics Innsbruck 04 April 2010, preliminary version Abstract The majority of scientific research to the notorious storms in December 1999 focuses on 'Lothar' and 'Martin' causing most of the damage to properties and fatalities in Central Europe. Few studies have been performed in the framework of the passage of storm 'Lothar Successor' (introduced in a case study of the Manual of synoptic satellite meteorology featured by ZAMG) between these two events being responsible for some gusts in exceed of 90 km/h between Northern France, Belgium and Southwestern Germany. The present study addresses to the phenomenology and possible explanations of that secondary cyclogenesis just after the passage of 'Lothar' and well before the arrival of 'Martin'. Facing different theories and findings in several papers it will be shown that the storm possessed a closed circulation and a fully developed frontal system. That key finding is especially in contrast to the analysis of the German Weather Service which suggested that solely a 'trough line' crossed Germany. The point whether a warm or a cold conveyor belt cyclogenesis produced the storm could not be entirely clarified. Finally, reasons are given for which 'Lothar Successor' had not become a 'second Lothar', amongst others the unfavourable position between two jetstreams with lack of sufficient cyclonic vorticity advection. 1. Introduction The motivation for reviewing the events from late December 1999 is mainly due to personal experience between the passage of 'Lothar' (26.12.1999) and 'Martin' (28.12.1999) in Lower Franconia close to Miltenberg (at the river Main between Frankfurt and Wuerzburg). -
Chapter 16 Extratropical Cyclones
CHAPTER 16 SCHULTZ ET AL. 16.1 Chapter 16 Extratropical Cyclones: A Century of Research on Meteorology’s Centerpiece a b c d DAVID M. SCHULTZ, LANCE F. BOSART, BRIAN A. COLLE, HUW C. DAVIES, e b f g CHRISTOPHER DEARDEN, DANIEL KEYSER, OLIVIA MARTIUS, PAUL J. ROEBBER, h i b W. JAMES STEENBURGH, HANS VOLKERT, AND ANDREW C. WINTERS a Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, United Kingdom b Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York c School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, State University of New York, Stony Brook, New York d Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland e Centre of Excellence for Modelling the Atmosphere and Climate, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom f Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Institute of Geography, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland g Atmospheric Science Group, Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin–Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin h Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah i Deutsches Zentrum fur€ Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut fur€ Physik der Atmosphare,€ Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ABSTRACT The year 1919 was important in meteorology, not only because it was the year that the American Meteorological Society was founded, but also for two other reasons. One of the foundational papers in extratropical cyclone structure by Jakob Bjerknes was published in 1919, leading to what is now known as the Norwegian cyclone model. Also that year, a series of meetings was held that led to the formation of organizations that promoted the in- ternational collaboration and scientific exchange required for extratropical cyclone research, which by necessity involves spatial scales spanning national borders. -
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PERILS PUTS INITIAL LOSS ESTIMATE FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER AT EUR 291M Zurich, 16 November 2017 – PERILS, the independent Zurich-based organisation providing industry-wide catastrophe insurance data, has today disclosed its initial loss estimate for Extratropical Cyclone Xavier, which primarily affected Germany on 5 October 2017. PERILS’ initial estimate of the insured property market loss for Xavier, based on loss data from affected insurers collected post-event, is EUR 291 million. In line with the PERILS reporting schedule, an updated estimate of the Xavier market loss will be made available on 5 January 2018, three months after the event start date. Xavier was a very fast-moving and violent storm which caused the deaths of seven people in Germany. It occurred very early in the European winter storm season which meant that many trees were still heavy with leaves and therefore were more prone to being blown over than had the same winds occurred during the winter months. Damaging gusts occurred along a narrow corridor approximately 250 km wide which ran ENE-WSW from Hamburg to Berlin and affected the states of Hamburg, Lower Saxony, Saxony-Anhalt, Brandenburg and Berlin. The duration of the intense winds experienced over northern and eastern Germany was approximately 14 hours, reflecting the extraordinarily rapid passage of Xavier. Extratropical Cyclone Xavier, maximum gust values in km/h: Xavier struck Germany on 5 October 2017 with violent gusts affecting a narrow corridor from Hamburg to Berlin. Xavier caused the deaths of seven people in Germany. PERILS AG Marktgasse 3 / 5 8001 Zurich Switzerland T: + 41 44 256 81 00 F: +41 44 256 8109 [email protected] Page 1 of 2 PERILS PUTS INITIAL LOSS ESTIMATE FOR EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE XAVIER AT EUR 291M Georg Andrea, Head of Data Management at PERILS, commented: “Given the storm’s early occurrence in the European winter storm season, a significant part of the damage was caused by falling trees which still had leaves on them. -
Low-Frequency Storminess Signal at Bermuda Linked to Cooling Events In
PUBLICATIONS Paleoceanography RESEARCH ARTICLE Low-frequency storminess signal at Bermuda linked 10.1002/2014PA002662 to cooling events in the North Atlantic region Key Points: Peter J. van Hengstum1, Jeffrey P. Donnelly2, Andrew W. Kingston3,4, Bruce E. Williams5, • Late Holocene storminess in Bermuda 6 7 6 4 is linked to North Atlantic cooling David B. Scott , Eduard G. Reinhardt , Shawna N. Little , and William P. Patterson • Coastal SSTs in Bermuda are linked to 1 2 NAO phasing over the late Holocene Department of Marine Sciences, Texas A&M University at Galveston, Galveston, Texas, USA, Department of Geology and 3 • Submarine caves can preserve Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA, Department of Geoscience, University of paleoclimate records Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada, 4Department of Geological Sciences, University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada, 5Bermuda Institute of Ocean Sciences, St. George’s, Bermuda, 6Department of Earth Sciences, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada, 7School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada Correspondence to: P. J. van Hengstum, [email protected] Abstract North Atlantic climate archives provide evidence for increased storm activity during the Little Ice Age (150 to 600 calibrated years (cal years) B.P.) and centered at 1700 and 3000 cal years B.P., typically in centennial-scale sedimentary records. Meteorological (tropical versus extratropical storms) and climate forcings Citation: van Hengstum, P. J., J. P. Donnelly, of this signal remain poorly understood, although variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) or Atlantic A. W. Kingston, B. E. Williams, D. B. Scott, Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are frequently hypothesized to be involved. -
Extreme Wind
Enabling Resilient UK Energy Infrastructure: Natural Hazard Characterisation Technical Volumes and Case Studies Volume 3: Extreme Wind LC 0064_18V3 Legal Statement © Energy Technologies Institute LLP (except where and to the extent expressly stated otherwise) This document has been prepared for the Energy Technologies Institute LLP (ETI) by EDF Energy R&D UK Centre Limited, the Met Office, and Mott MacDonald Limited. This document is provided for general information only. It is not intended to amount to advice on which you should rely. You must obtain professional or specialist advice before taking, or refraining from, any action on the basis of the content of this document. This document should not be relied upon by any other party or used for any other purpose. EDF Energy R&D UK Centre Limited, the Met Office, Mott MacDonald Limited and (for the avoidance of doubt) ETI (We) make no representations and give no warranties or guarantees, whether express or implied, that the content of this document is accurate, complete, up to date, or fit for any particular purpose. We accept no responsibility for the consequences of this document being relied upon by you, any other party, or being used for any purpose, or containing any error or omission. Except for death or personal injury caused by our negligence or any other liability which may not be excluded by applicable law, We will not be liable for any loss or damage, whether in contract, tort (including negligence), breach of statutory duty, or otherwise, even if foreseeable, arising under or in connection with use of or reliance on any content of this document.