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Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Floras of Oceanic Islands

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Impacts of Global Climate Change on the Floras of Oceanic Islands Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 17 (2015) 160–183 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics jou rnal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ppees Review Impacts of global climate change on the floras of oceanic islands – Projections, implications and current knowledge a, a,b c,d a David E.V. Harter ∗, Severin D.H. Irl , Bumsuk Seo , Manuel J. Steinbauer , e f,g h Rosemary Gillespie , Kostas A. Triantis , José-Marıa´ Fernández-Palacios , a Carl Beierkuhnlein a Department of Biogeography, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany b Disturbance Ecology, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany c Biogeographical Modelling, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany d Ecological Modelling, BayCEER, University of Bayreuth, Dr.-Hans-Frisch-Str. 1-3, 95448 Bayreuth, Germany e Department of Environmental Science, Policy and Management, University of California, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA f Department of Ecology and Taxonomy, Faculty of Biology, National and Kapodistrian University, Athens GR-15784, Greece g Biodiversity Research Group, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, South Parks Road, Oxford, OX13QY, UK h Island Ecology and Biogeography Research Group, IUETSPC, Universidad de La Laguna, Tenerife, Canary Islands, 38206 Spain a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: Recent climate projections indicate substantial environmental alterations in oceanic island regions during Received 18 June 2014 the 21st century, setting up profound threats to insular floras. Inherent characteristics of island species Received in revised form 21 January 2015 and ecosystems (e.g. small population sizes, low habitat availability, isolated evolution, low functional Accepted 23 January 2015 redundancy) cause a particular vulnerability. Strong local anthropogenic pressures interact with climate Available online 31 January 2015 change impacts and increase threats. Owing to the high degree of endemism in their floras, a dispro- portionally high potential for global biodiversity loss originates from climate change impacts on oceanic Keywords: islands. We reviewed a growing body of research, finding evidence of emerging climate change influences Global warming as well as high potentials of future impacts on insular species and ecosystems. Threats from global climate Island biogeography change are not evenly distributed among the world’s oceanic islands but rather vary with intrinsic (e.g. Island endemics Oceanic buffering island area, structure, age and ecological complexity) and extrinsic factors (regional character, magni- Sea-level rise tude and rate of climatic alterations, local human influences). The greatest flora vulnerabilities to climate Susceptibility change impacts can be expected on islands of small area, low elevation and homogeneous topography. Islands of low functional redundancies will particularly suffer from high rates of co-modifications and co-extinctions due to climate-change-driven disruptions of ecological interactions. High threat potentials come from synergistic interactions between different factors, especially between climatic changes and local anthropogenic encroachments on native species and ecosystems. In addition, human responses to climate change can cause strong indirect impacts on island floras, making highly populated islands very vulnerable to secondary (derivative) effects. We provide an integrated overview of climate change-driven processes affecting oceanic island plants and depict knowledge gaps and uncertainties. The suitability of oceanic islands and their ecosystems for potential research on the field of climate change ecology is highlighted and implications for adequate research approaches are given. © 2015 Geobotanisches Institut ETH, Stiftung Ruebel. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. Contents Introduction . 161 Climate change patterns among island regions . 162 Global temperature and precipitation change on oceanic islands . 162 Regional variation of change and drivers of variability. 164 ∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +49 921 552211. E-mail address: [email protected] (D.E.V. Harter). http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ppees.2015.01.003 1433-8319/© 2015 Geobotanisches Institut ETH, Stiftung Ruebel. Published by Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved. D.E.V. Harter et al. / Perspectives in Plant Ecology, Evolution and Systematics 17 (2015) 160–183 161 Sea level rise. 166 Factors contributing to oceanic island plant vulnerabilities to global climate change . 166 Island area . 166 The role of area and habitat space for intra-island range shifts . 166 Island area shaping population sizes. 168 Island origin and topography . 168 Geological, topographic and edaphic structuring. 168 The role of elevation. 169 Ecological complexity . 170 Lacking functional redundancy . 170 Species richness and migration within islands . 170 Interactions between ecosystems. 171 Species characteristics . 171 Spatial distribution and environmental niche . 171 Life history effects on migration and adaptation abilities to climatic changes . 172 Mutualistic species interactions . 172 Local human influences . 172 Land-use, overexploitation and habitat degradation . 173 Invasive neobiota . 173 Human-mediated secondary effects of climate change . 174 Conservation and adaptation measures to climate change impacts . 174 Outlook . 175 General patterns . 175 Suitability and potential of oceanic islands for climate change research . 175 Knowledge gaps and suggestions for research approaches . ..
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