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Pakistan: Private Sector Assessment

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Pakistan: Private Sector Assessment ASIAN DEVELOPMENT BANK PRIVATE SECTOR ASSESSMENT PAKISTAN December 2008 CONTENTS Page EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i SECTION I 1 THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN PAKISTAN – AN OVERVIEW AND CURRENT STATUS 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR ASSESSMENT 1 1.2 THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN PAKISTAN – A HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE 1 1.2.1 The Golden Years: 1947 – 1970 1 1.2.2 The Public Sector Ascendant: 1972 – 1977 2 1.2.3 The Domino Years: 1977 - 1990 2 1.2.4 The Winds Of Change – 1990-1999 4 1.2.5 Reaping The Harvest – 1999 To Date 5 1.3 STRUCTURE AND COMPOSITION OF PAKISTAN’S PRIVATE SECTOR 7 1.4 EMPLOYMENT AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL 10 1.5 SECTOR WISE CONTRIBUTION OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR 12 1.5.1 Agriculture 13 1.5.2 Mining and Quarrying 14 1.5.3 Manufacturing 14 1.5.4 Construction 16 1.5.5 Electricity Generation 17 1.5.6 Services Sector 18 SECTION II 23 PUBLIC POLICY AND STRATEGY AND THE RISE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR 23 2.1 MAJOR AGENTS OF CHANGE 23 2.2 PRIVATIZATION 23 2.2.1 The “Privatization For The People” Program 25 2.2.2 Lessons Learnt from Pakistan’s Experience with Privatization 26 2.3 DEREGULATION AND ECONOMIC LIBERALIZATION 26 2.4 REGULATORY STRUCTURES: PROGRESS AND ISSUES 29 2.5 GOVERNMENT STRATEGY FOR PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT 31 SECTION III 33 KEY CHALLENGES AND THE WAY FORWARD FOR PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN 33 3.1 MAJOR MACROECONOMIC AND INFRASTRUCTURE CHALLENGES 33 3.2 GOVERNANCE AND INSTITUTIONAL BOTTLENECKS 38 3.3 CONSTRAINTS TO DOING BUSINESS IN PAKISTAN 39 SECTION IV 49 THE MISSING LINKS 49 4.1 THE SME and INFORMAL SECTORS: 49 4.1.1 Employment Trends in the Informal Sector 49 4.1.2 Estimation of the Informal Sector's Contribution to GDP 51 4.2 THE FUTURE OF THE INFORMAL SECTOR IN PAKISTAN 51 4.3 SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISE SECTOR 52 4.4 CLIMATE CHANGE AND IMPACT ON THE ECONOMY AND THE PRIVATE SECTOR54 SECTION V 56 THE ROLE OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR IN INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT 56 5.1 PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE: 56 5.2 CONSTRAINTS IN PAKISTAN TO PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE 57 5.2.1 Undeveloped Financial Markets and Instruments 59 5.2.2 Structural and Policy Constraints: 60 5.3 PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS (PPP) FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT61 5.3.1 Constraints for PPPs 61 5.3.2 Issues, Challenges, and Way Forward on Private Sector Participation in Key Infrastructure Sectors in Pakistan 62 5.4 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PROMOTING PPP IN PAKISTAN 69 SECTION VI 70 6.1 ADB AND PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IN PAKISTAN 70 6.2 ASSISTANCE TO THE PUBLIC SECTOR FOR DEVELOPING THE PRIVATE SECTOR70 6.3 PRIVATE SECTOR ASSISTANCE THROUGH THE PRIVATE SECTOR OPERATIONS DEPARTMENT (PSOD) 73 SECTION VII 78 THE PRIVATE SECTOR SPEAKS 78 SECTION VIII 80 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FUTURE ADB INTERVENTIONS 80 APPENDICES APPENDIX 1: PAKISTAN'S INVESTMENT INCENTIVES AT A GLANCE 85 APPENDIX 2: PAKISTAN'S INSURANCE SECTOR 86 I. Life Insurance Sector 86 II. Non Life Insurance Sector 87 APPENDIX 3: LIST OF PRIVATIZATIONS IN PAKISTAN 1999 – APRIL 2007 89 APPENDIX 4: CONSTRAINTS AND INTERVENTIONS FOR ENHANCING PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 91 APPENDIX 5: CONSTRAINTS AND POSSIBLE INTERVENTIONS FOR PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN ROADS, RAILWAYS, AND PORTS 95 APPENDIX 6: CONSTRAINTS AND POSSIBLE INTERVENTIONS FOR PRIVATE SECTOR PARTICIPATION IN THE WATER SECTOR 98 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Capital Market Growth and Development 6 Table 2: Structure of Savings and Investment (As Percent of GDP) 7 Table 3: Foreign Investment Inflows in Pakistan (Million $) 9 Table 4: Sector Wise FDI Inflows (Million $) 9 Table 5: Employment by Major Industry (%) 10 Table 6: Sectoral Concentration of Informal Labor Force Employment (%) 11 Table 7: Distribution of Enterprises by Employment Size 2005(percent) 12 Table 8: Sectoral Share in GDP (%, Constant Factor Cost) 13 Table 9: Asset Structure of the Insurance Industry 21 Table 10: Insurance Density in US$; insurance penetration (in percent) 22 Table 11: Government’s Incentives for Investment 27 Table 12: Country Wise Foreign Investment Inflows ($ million) 28 Table 13: Leading Foreign Investor Companies – Average Returns 29 Table 14: State of Pakistan’s Competitiveness 2007 42 Table 15: Formal and Informal Sectors- Distribution of Non- Agriculture Workers (%) 50 Table 16: Informal Sectors Workers- Distribution by Major Industry Divisions 50 Table 17: Pakistan. Revised GDP and Annual Value added of the Informal Sector (1999-2000) 51 Table 18: Credit to SMEs (Rs. million) 54 Table 19: Impact of Climate Change 55 Table 20: Comparative Infrastructure Indicators for Pakistan 56 Table 21: Sectors for Private Sector Investment in Pakistan (1999 – 2006) 57 Table 22: Total Installed Generation Capacity (MW) 62 Table 23: Potential Private Sector Hydropower Projects (Rs. million) 63 Table 24: Pakistan’s Teledensity in Comparison with other Regional Countries (%) 65 Table 25: Public Sector Interventions with PSD Focus: Some Examples 71 Table 26: Completed Assistance to the Private Sector ($ million) 74 Table 27: Ongoing Private Sector Assistance ($ million) 75 Table 28: Feedback from the Private Sector 78 Table 29: Recommendations for ADB Interventions for PSD 80 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Real Fixed Investment as percent of GDP 8 Figure 2: Main Sectors of Private Sector Investment FY2007 8 Figure 3: Sectoral Share in Generation of Electricity (%) 17 Figure 4: Increased Ownership of Local Private Banks 19 Figure 5: Ownership of NBFIs 20 Figure 6: Insurance Sector Profitability- 2005 21 Figure 7: Foreign Stake in Domestic Stock Market (as percent of aggregate market capitalization) 26 Figure 8: GDP Growth (%) 34 Figure 9: Domestic Saving Rates in 2005 35 Figure 10: Electricity Demand and Supply Curve 37 Figure 11: Pakistan’s Governance Rankings 39 Figure 12: Pakistan’s Performance on the Doing Business Survey 40 Figure 13: Ranking of Investment Climate by City (perceptions of firms outside the city) 42 Figure 14a: GCI Rank on Institutions 45 Figure 14b: GCI Rankings on Infrastructure 45 Figure 14c: GCI Rankings on Health and Primary Education 45 Figure 14d: GCI Rankings on Market Efficiency 46 Figure 14e: GCI Rankings on Technological Readiness 46 Figure 14f: GCI Rankings on Business Sophistication 46 Figure 14g: GCI Rankings on Innovation 47 Figure 14h: GCI Rankings on Macroeconomy 47 Figure 14i: GCI Rankings on Higher Education and Training 47 Figure 15: Teledensity of Pakistan (%) 65 Figure 16: ADB’s Private Sector Assistance in Pakistan: Ongoing Portfolio 76 ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank CMDP Capital Market Development Program CPS Country Partnership Strategy DFI Development Finance Institution FDI Foreign Direct Investment GENCOs Generation Companies GCI Global Competitiveness Index GDP Gross Domestic Product GDR Global Depository Receipt GoP Government of Pakistan HBL Habib Bank Limited IFI International Finance Institution IMF International Monetary Fund IPO initial public offering IPP independent power producers MCA Monopoly Control Authority MTDF Medium Term Development Framework KESC Karachi Electric Supply Corporation KPT Karachi Port Trust KSE Karachi Stock Exchange NCBs Nationalized Commercial Banks NEPRA National Electric Power Regulatory Authority NHA ` National Highway Authority NICL National Insurance Company Limited NRL National Refinery Limited OGDCL Oil and Gas Development Corporation Limited OGRA Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority PC Privatization Commission PEMRA Pakistan Electronic Media Regulatory Authority PPID Pakistan Private Infrastructure Development PPL Pakistan Petroleum Limited PPP Public Private Partnerships PRCL Pakistan Reinsurance Corporation Limited PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper PSA Private Sector Assessment PSD Private Sector Development PSO Pakistan State Oil PSM Pakistan Stock Market Fund PSO Pakistan State Oil Company Limited PSOD Private Sector Operations Department PTA Pakistan Telecommunications Authority PTCL Pakistan Telecommunications Company Limited REITs Real Estate Investment Trusts SBP State Bank of Pakistan SECP Securities and Exchange Commission of Pakistan SLIC State Life Insurance Corporation SME Small and Medium Enterprises SOE State Owned Enterprise TA Technical Assistance UBL United Bank Limited WAPDA Water and Power Development Authority WLL Wireless Local Loop NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government of Pakistan and its agencies ends on 30 June. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2008 ends on 30 June 2008. (ii) In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i. The Pakistani Private Sector: Since its inception in 1947, Pakistan has relied on the private sector as the primary producer of goods and services. The early 1970s, however, witnessed a crippling shift towards a command economy and a subordinated private sector manifested through a policy of nationalization. The 1980s and onwards witnessed a reversal of this paradigm and the private sector again began to emerge and lead investment and economic activity. Beginning in the early 1990s, the Government of Pakistan pursued a strategy of privatization, deregulation, liberalization and good governance to promote private sector development. However, macroeconomic instability and political turmoil and uncertainty stood in the way of the successful implementation of this strategy. Under a new Government in 1999, major structural, governance, and economic reforms began to be implemented with a focus on generating macroeconomic stability and creating an environment to encourage the private sector to become
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