[Korea] Entertainment

SM Entertainment Trading Buy (041510 KQ) (Maintain)

Weathering the crisis thanks to strong fan base TP: W42,000 ▲ Upside: 17.0%

Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. Jeong-yeob Park [email protected]

2Q20 review Consolidated revenue of W135.9bn (-14.9% YoY) and OP of W13.2bn (+240.1% YoY), well ahead of the consensus  SM Entertainment’s better-than-expected results were supported by strong growth of lucrative album/digital music sales and cost savings (e.g., reduced fee payments to Like Planning).  Non-consolidated operating profit was W16.7bn. While SM Japan posted operating profit of W100mn, Dream Maker, SM C&C, and KeyEast posted operating losses of W900mn, W1.4bn, and W800mn, respectively.  Parent-based operating profit expanded 762% YoY, supported by robust album sales (W33.8bn; +154% YoY) amid a huge increase in direct purchases from overseas.  In 2Q20, album sales amounted to 2.51mn copies (+137% YoY). From January to July, album sales totaled 4.55mn copies (vs. 4.58mn copies sold in 2019).  Subsidiaries posted a combined operating loss of W3bn. Despite the absence of concerts, SM Japan (SMEJ + SMEJ Plus) turned a profit with the IP business alone. However, COVID-19 effects weighed on other subsidiaries (ad market weakness for SM C&C, a content void for KeyEast, and concert cancellations for Dream Maker).

Margin expansion driven by Parent-based gross margin improved to 46.4% in 2Q20 (vs. 36.4% in 2019) robust album sales  Even when not factoring in cost savings (Like Planning), SM Entertainment still managed to post a gross margin of 40%, aided by increases in direct album sales and digital music consumption.  Some solo albums are setting sales records, including the latest mini album of Baekhyun (EXO member; over 1mn copies sold). It remains to be seen whether the absence of concerts will continue to drive consumers to spend more on albums and digital music.

Valuation and recommendation Maintain Trading Buy and lift TP to W42,000  Overseas fans are driving up sales of albums/digital music, easing concerns over lost concert revenue. The importance of such fans will be highlighted if overseas direct purchases continue.  We lift our target price to W42,000 (from W31,000), as we revised up our album/digital music revenue and margin estimates. We derived our target price by applying a P/E of 27x to our 2021F net profit attributable to owners of the parent of W33.8bn.  Key long-term variables include: 1) the expansion of Beyond LIVE (concert streaming service) to include foreign artists; 2) the materialization of fan club/streaming services (in which NAVER [035420 KS/Buy/TP: W430,000/CP: W305,000] invested W100bn); and 3) new artist debuts.  Despite the recent share rally, we believe Big Hit Entertainment’s IPO in 2H20 and revenue model expansion should provide downside support to share prices.

Key data Current price (8/14/20, W) 35,900 Market cap (Wbn) 842 170 SM Entertainment KOSDAQ 150 OP (20F, Wbn) 30 Shares outstanding (mn) 23 130 Consensus OP (20F, Wbn) 20 Free float (%) 80.6 110 EPS growth (20F, %) - Foreign ownership (%) 16.4 90 P/E (20F, x) 157.5 Beta (12M) 0.98 70 50 Market P/E (20F, x) 16.9 52-week low (W) 16,700 8.19 12.19 4.20 8.20 KOSDAQ 835.03 52-week high (W) 39,650

Share performance Earnings and valuation metrics (%) 1M 6M 12M (Dec.) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Absolute 6.7 5.7 20.5 Revenue (Wbn) 350 365 612 658 549 683 Relative -0.6 -12.8 -13.8 OP (Wbn) 21 11 48 40 30 56 OP margin (%) 6.0 3.0 7.8 6.1 5.5 8.2 NP (Wbn) 4 4 31 -9 5 34 EPS (W) 169 199 1,361 -390 228 1,441 ROE (%) 1.2 1.3 8.0 -2.1 1.2 7.3 P/E (x) 153.0 174.4 38.4 - 157.5 24.9 P/B (x) 1.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; NP is attributable to owners of the parent Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates Analysts who prepared this report are registered as research analysts in Korea but not in any other jurisdiction, including the US. PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS IN APPENDIX 1 AT THE END OF REPORT. August 18, 2020 SM Entertainment

Earning forecasts and valuation

Table 1. Valuation (Wbn, x, %)

Valuation - P/E 19 20F 21F Fair market cap 933 933 933 NP -9 5 35 Target P/E (x) -102.5 174.5 27.0 Fair price (W) 42,867 42,867 42,867 Expected return (%) 19.4 19.4 19.4 Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

Table 2. Quarterly and annual earnings (Wbn, %, mn, %p) 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20P 3Q20F 4Q20F 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 131 160 173 194 145 136 124 144 658 549 683 SM Entertainment 57 65 84 102 68 75 58 73 307 274 343 SM Japan 15 16 20 28 14 8 5 5 79 32 65 Dream Maker 16 14 29 20 5 5 4 5 80 20 53 SM C&C 35 43 40 49 34 27 33 36 167 129 142 KeyEast 23 33 22 22 31 20 22 23 100 96 106 OP 2.8 3.9 19.9 13.8 1.7 13.2 6.6 8.7 40 30 56 OP margin (%) 2.1 2.4 11.5 7.1 1.2 9.7 5.3 6.1 6.1 5.5 8.2 Pretax profit 3 4 22 -18 5 9 6 -1 11 19 47 NP -4 1 9 -23 -2 -0 5 -1 -16 1 36 Net margin (%) -2.8 0.4 5.4 -11.6 -1.3 -0.1 3.8 -0.8 -2.5 0.3 5.3 NP attributable to owners of the parent -1.0 0.5 8.3 -16.9 -0.4 2.3 4.4 -1.0 -9.1 5.3 33.8 YoY Revenue 18.2 28.3 2.8 -7.0 10.7 -14.9 -28.4 -25.7 7.4 -16.6 24.3 SM Entertainment -4.1 6.7 27.4 6.5 19.8 15.5 -30.3 -28.4 9.2 -10.8 25.0 SM Japan -43.3 -1.8 -1.5 -11.0 -4.0 -52.5 -74.8 -81.3 -16.3 -59.4 100.0 Dream Maker 143.3 12.9 64.2 -6.6 -66.9 -61.4 -87.0 -75.1 36.5 -75.4 170.0 SM C&C -6.1 -18.5 -10.5 -21.9 -4.0 -37.8 -18.1 -26.1 -15.4 -22.5 10.0 KeyEast ------69.2 -4.2 10.0 OP -72.9 -61.3 64.2 -9.4 -40.3 240.1 -67.1 -36.5 -15.4 -25.4 86.9 NP TTR -82.8 28.3 TTR RR TTR -50.0 RR TTR TTB 2,369.3 Key assumptions Record sales in Korea 0.1 0.7 1.5 1.9 1.1 2.7 1.4 1.7 4.2 6.7 7.5 Concert ticket sales in Japan 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.4 1.5 Notes: Under consolidated K-IFRS; concert ticket sales volume is based on the actual timing of each concert and includes our estimates Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 2 August 18, 2020 SM Entertainment

Figure 1. Concert attendance to fall sharply

(mn persons) 2.5 SM TOWN NCT 127 Red Velvet EXO f(x) Super Junior SHINee Girls' Generation TVXQ 2.0 BoA

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Figure 2. Overseas fans are driving up sales of albums/digital music, easing concerns over lost concert revenue

(mn units) 8 BoA f(x) TVXQ Girls' Generation SHINee Super Junior SuperM EXO (total) Red Velvet 6 NCT (total) WayV Taeyeon

4

2

0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020F

Source: Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Figure 3. Key variable: New revenue model based on collaboration between platforms and content providers

Source: Company materials, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research

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SM Entertainment (041510 KQ)

Income statement (summarized) Balance sheet (summarized) (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Revenue 612 658 549 683 Current assets 537 629 564 673 Cost of revenue 410 442 360 444 Cash & equivalents 237 285 306 353 Gross profit 202 216 189 239 AR & other receivables 124 129 96 120 SG&A expenses 155 175 158 182 Inventory 12 15 11 14 OP (adj.) 48 40 30 56 Other current assets 164 200 151 186 OP 48 40 30 56 Non-current assets 465 487 442 407 Non-operating profit -2 -29 -11 -9 Investments in associates 101 65 49 60 Net financial income 0 0 -1 0 PP&E 93 106 85 63 Net income from associates -6 -11 -2 0 Intangible assets 186 199 166 135 Pretax profit 46 11 19 47 Total assets 1,002 1,116 1,007 1,080 Income tax 23 27 17 11 Current liabilities 394 437 337 371 Profit from continuing operations 23 -16 1 36 AP & other payables 266 289 215 267 Profit from discontinued operations 0 0 0 0 Short-term financial liabilities 44 67 61 29 NP 23 -16 1 36 Other current liabilities 84 81 61 75 Attributable to owners 31 -9 5 34 Non-current liabilities 32 46 39 42 Attributable to minority interests -7 -7 -4 2 Long-term financial liabilities 10 28 25 25 Total comprehensive income 27 -12 7 36 Other non-current liabilities 22 18 14 17 Attributable to owners 35 -6 5 26 Total liabilities 426 483 375 413 Attributable to minority interests -8 -6 2 10 Equity attributable to owners 424 444 446 480 EBITDA 88 104 99 110 Capital stock 12 12 12 12 FCF 110 78 33 114 Capital surplus 219 245 245 245 EBITDA margin (%) 14.4 15.8 18.0 16.1 Retained earnings 174 165 170 204 OP margin (%) 7.8 6.1 5.5 8.2 Minority interests 152 189 185 187 Net margin (%) 5.1 -1.4 0.9 5.0 Shareholders' equity 576 633 631 667

Cash flow statement (summarized) Key valuation metrics/ratios (Wbn) 2018 2019 2020F 2021F 2018 2019 2020F 2021F Operating cash flow 120 92 35 114 P/E (x) 38.4 - 157.5 24.9 NP 23 -16 1 36 P/CF (x) 11.1 7.4 9.5 8.3 Non-cash income/expenses 83 138 87 65 P/B (x) 2.8 2.0 1.9 1.8 Depreciation 13 26 30 22 EV/EBITDA (x) 12.9 7.8 7.4 5.8 Amortization 27 38 39 32 EPS (W) 1,361 -390 228 1,441 Other 43 74 18 11 CFPS (W) 4,725 5,220 3,774 4,312 Chg. in working capital 52 -5 -34 25 BPS (W) 18,465 18,984 19,068 20,509 Chg. in AR & other receivables 2 0 38 -23 DPS (W) 0 0 0 0 Chg. in inventory -1 -1 4 -3 Dividend payout ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Chg. in AP & other payables 46 5 -74 35 Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Income tax -39 -25 -18 -11 Revenue growth (%) 67.7 7.5 -16.6 24.4 Cash flow from investing activities -127 -53 -15 -23 EBITDA growth (%) 166.7 18.2 -4.8 11.1 Chg. in PP&E -10 -13 -3 0 OP growth (%) 336.4 -16.7 -25.0 86.7 Chg. in intangible assets -26 -30 -6 0 EPS growth (%) 583.9 - - 532.0 Chg. in financial assets -33 -48 32 -23 AR turnover (x) 5.0 5.2 4.9 6.3 Other -58 38 -38 0 Inventory turnover (x) 60.8 50.1 42.7 55.5 Cash flow from financing activities 46 6 -13 -33 AP turnover (x) 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.8 Chg. in financial liabilities -5 40 -8 -33 ROA (%) 2.6 -1.5 0.1 3.4 Chg. in equity 49 26 -1 0 ROE (%) 8.0 -2.1 1.2 7.3 Dividends 0 0 0 0 ROIC (%) 13.0 -27.4 -0.5 25.3 Other 2 -60 -4 0 Debt-to-equity ratio (%) 74.0 76.3 59.5 61.9 Chg. in cash 42 48 22 47 Current ratio (%) 136.3 143.9 167.6 181.6 Beginning balance 195 237 285 306 Net debt-to-equity ratio (%) -39.5 -44.5 -45.9 -57.9 Ending balance 237 285 306 353 Interest coverage ratio (x) 18.7 10.4 6.5 15.7 Source: Company data, Mirae Asset Daewoo Research estimates

Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 4 August 18, 2020 SM Entertainment

Appendix 1

Important disclosures and disclaimers Two-year rating and TP history

Company Date Rating TP (W) (W) SM Entertainment SM Entertainment (041510) 08/18/20 Trading Buy 42,000 80,000 05/31/20 Trading Buy 31,000 11/15/19 Buy 52,000 60,000 10/13/19 Buy 43,000 40,000 03/10/19 Buy 59,000 11/14/18 Buy 70,000 20,000 10/24/18 Buy 65,000

08/15/18 Buy 54,000 0 Aug 18 Aug 19 Aug 20

Stock ratings Sector ratings Buy Expected 12-month performance: +20% or greater Overweight Expected to outperform the market over 12 months Trading Buy Expected 12-month performance: +10% to +20% Neutral Expected to perform in line with the market over 12 months Hold Expected 12-month performance: -10% to +10% Underweight Expected to underperform the market over 12 months Sell Expected 12-month performance: -10% or worse

Rating and TP history: Share price (─), TP (▬), Not Rated (■), Buy (▲), Trading Buy (■), Hold (●), Sell (◆) * Our investment rating is a guide to the expected return of the stock over the next 12 months. * Outside of the official ratings of Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd., analysts may call trading opportunities should technical or short-term material developments arise. * The TP was determined by the research analyst through valuation methods discussed in this report, in part based on estimates of future earnings. * TP achievement may be impeded by risks related to the subject securities and companies, as well as general market and economic conditions.

Ratings distribution and investment banking services Buy Trading Buy Hold Sell Ratings distribution 76.22% 11.59% 11.59% 0.60% Investment banking services 75.00% 10.00% 15.00% 0% * Based on recommendations in the last 12 months (as of June 30, 2020)

Disclosures As of the publication date, Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. is acting as a financial advisor to SM Entertainment for its treasury share buyback and cancellation.

Analyst certification The research analysts who prepared this report (the “Analysts”) are registered with the Korea Financial Investment Association and are subject to Korean securities regulations. They are neither registered as research analysts in any other jurisdiction nor subject to the laws or regulations thereof. Each Analyst responsible for the preparation of this report certifies that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the Analyst about any and all of the issuers and securities named in this report and (ii) no part of the compensation of the Analyst was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this report. Mirae Asset Daewoo Co., Ltd. (“Mirae Asset Daewoo”) policy prohibits its Analysts and members of their households from owning securities of any company in the Analyst’s area of coverage, and the Analysts do not serve as an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject companies. Except as otherwise specified herein, the Analysts have not received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject companies in the past 12 months and have not been promised the same in connection with this report. Like all employees of Mirae Asset Daewoo, the Analysts receive compensation that is determined by overall firm profitability, which includes revenues from, among other business units, the institutional equities, investment banking, proprietary trading, and private client divisions. At the time of publication of this report, the Analysts do not know or have reason to know of any actual, material conflict of interest of the Analyst or Mirae Asset Daewoo except as otherwise stated herein.

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The reports may reflect different assumptions, views, and analytical methods of the analysts who prepared them. Mirae Asset Daewoo may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the opinions and views expressed in this research report. Mirae Asset Daewoo, its affiliates, and their directors, officers, employees, and agents may have long or short positions in any of the subject securities at any time and may make a purchase or sale, or offer to make a purchase or sale, of any such securities or other financial instruments from time to time in the open market or otherwise, in each case either as principals or agents. Mirae Asset Daewoo and its affiliates may have had, or may be expecting to enter into, business relationships with the subject companies to provide investment banking, market-making, or other financial services as are permitted under applicable laws and regulations. No part of this document may be copied or reproduced in any manner or form or redistributed or published, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Mirae Asset Daewoo. For further information regarding company-specific information as it pertains to the representations and disclosures in this Appendix 1, please contact [email protected] or +1 (212) 407-1000.

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Mirae Asset Daewoo Research 6 August 18, 2020 SM Entertainment

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