Center for International and Security Studies at Maryland The Definition and Measurement of Dangerous Research Alex Greninger July 2004 CISSM School of Public Policy This paper was prepared as part of the Advanced Methods of Cooperative Security Program at 4113 Van Munching Hall the Center for International and Secuirty Studies at Maryland, with generous support from the University of Maryland John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. College Park, MD 20742 Tel: 301-405-7601
[email protected] Outline I. Introduction to the Biological Research Security System Model A. The 3-D Definition of Danger 1. Define Transmissibility 2. Define Infectivity 3. Define Lethality B. Defining the Project At Hand C. Where Do Candidate Pathogens Fit into the Danger Terrian? II. Influenza A. Parameter Background 1. Transmissibility 2. Lethality 3. Infectivity B. Highlighting Problematic Research That Has Been Done 1. General Pathogenesis 2. Determinants of 1918 Influenza Pathogenesis 3. Determinants of H5N1 Virus Pathogenesis C. Highlighting Problematic Research That Could Be Done D. Difficulties in Creating an Oversight System for Influenza Research E. Recommendations for Influenza Research III. Pneumonic Plague A. Parameter Background 1. Transmissibility 2. Infectivity 3. Lethality 4. Conclusions B. Highlighting Problematic Research That Has Been Done 1. Increasing Presentation or Activity of Virulence Factors 2. Therapy and Prophylaxis Resistance C. Highlighting Problematic Research That Could Be Done D. Conclusions IV. Conclusions A. Recommendations 1. Include Countermeasures 2. Build the Science of Transmissibility 3. Recognize the Threat Presented By Host Susceptibility and Immunology 4. Keep Weaponization Information Under Control 5. Is Infectivity Useful? B. Long-Term Dilemmas 1.