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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Nepal

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IWMI WORKING PAPER 139 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Nepal Ryan Bartlett, Luna Bharati, Dhruba Pant, Heather Hosterman and Peter McCornick IWMI Celebrating years 1985-2010 International Water Management Institute Working Papers The publications in this series record the work and thinking of IWMI researchers, and knowledge that the Institute’s scientific management feels is worthy of documenting. This series will ensure that scientific data and other information gathered or prepared as a part of the research work of the Institute are recorded and referenced. Working Papers could include project reports, case studies, conference or workshop proceedings, discussion papers or reports on progress of research, country-specific research reports, monographs, etc. Working Papers may be copublished, by IWMI and partner organizations. Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi. org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMI IWMI’s mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems—practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources. IWMI Working Paper 139 Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Nepal Ryan Bartlett Luna Bharati Dhruba Pant Heather Hosterman and Peter McCornick International Water Management Institute The authors: Ryan Bartlett is a Water Policy Associate at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University in Durham, NC, USA; Luna Bharati is a Researcher at the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) in Kathmandu, Nepal; Dhruba Pant is Head of the Nepal Office of IWMI in Kathmandu, Nepal; Heather Hosterman is a Research Analyst at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University in Durham, NC, USA; and Peter McCornick is the Director of Water at the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University in Durham, NC, USA. Bartlett, R.; Bharati, L.; Pant, D.; Hosterman, H.; McCornick, P. 2010. Climate change impacts and adaptation in Nepal. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 35p. (IWMI Working Paper 139). doi:10.5337/2010.227 / climate change / adaptation / national planning / institutions / water resource management / agricultural systems / social aspects / economic aspects / political aspects / river basins / runoff / Koshi River Basin / Nepal / ISSN 2012-5763 ISBN 978-92-9090-732-9 Copyright © 2010, by IWMI. All rights reserved. IWMI encourages the use of its material provided that the organization is acknowledged and kept informed in all such instances. Please direct inquiries and comments to: [email protected] A free copy of this publication can be downloaded at www.iwmi.org/Publications/Working_Papers/index.aspx Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the staff of World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF)-Nepal, including Neera Pradhan and Haris Rai, for their assistance with the logistics involved in the field visit to the Koshi Basin in the Solukhumbu District. We would like to especially acknowledge Mr. Kishore Khati, F&A Officer, Dudh Koshi Sub Basin Project, whose work as guide and translator in Solukhumbu was critical for project success. We are also grateful to Dr. Vladimir Smakhtin, Theme Leader for IWMI’s theme on Water Availability and Access, for reviewing various versions of this paper; and special thanks also goes to Mahen Chandrasoma for doing the final language edits on the paper. Collaborators This study is a collaboration of the following organizations: International Water Management Institute Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA Donors This study was funded from the core funds of IWMI during 2009, which consisted of contributions from the following countries and organizations: Australia Netherlands Canada Norway DFID South Africa France Sweden Germany Switzerland India USAID Ireland World Bank Japan Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations ....................................................................................................vii Summary ............................................................................................................................. ix Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 Social and Economic Conditions .......................................................................................... 1 Water Resources .................................................................................................................... 2 Agriculture ............................................................................................................................. 2 Political Situation .................................................................................................................. 3 Climate Change in Nepal ............................................................................................................ 4 General Overview ................................................................................................................. 4 Temperature ........................................................................................................................... 4 Precipitation ........................................................................................................................... 4 Runoff .............................................................................................................................. 5 Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Systems ............................................................... 6 Mapping of Relevant Institutions for Climate Change Adaptation ............................................ 7 Strategic and Autonomous Adaptation ................................................................................. 7 Institutional Mapping for Climate Change Adaptation in Nepal ......................................... 8 Institutional Structure at the National Level ........................................................................ 9 Institutional Mapping at the Local level – Koshi Basin ...................................................... 9 Dudh Koshi Subbasin: Solukhumbu Development District ............................................... 11 District and Community Level Institutional Framework ................................................... 12 Theoretical Institutional Adaptation Framework ................................................................ 14 The National Level ..................................................................................................... 14 District and Village Levels ......................................................................................... 16 Constraints to Adaptation .......................................................................................................... 17 Dependence on Subsistence Agriculture............................................................................. 17 Challenging Geophysical Conditions ................................................................................. 18 Population Growth in Urban Centers ................................................................................. 19 Institutional Failures and Weaknesses ................................................................................ 19 Constantly Changing Organizational Structures ........................................................ 19 v High Turnover of Government Personnel .................................................................. 20 Failures of Public Institutions .................................................................................... 20 Ineffective to Nonexistent Coordination .................................................................... 20 Deficient Capacity ...................................................................................................... 21 Conclusions and Recommendations .......................................................................................... 21 References ............................................................................................................................ 23 vi Acronyms and Abbreviations ABC Atmospheric Brown Clouds CC Climate change DAO District Administration Office DDC District Development Committee DWRC District Water Resources Committee DWSS Department of Water Sanitation and Supply GCM General Circulation Model GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Floods GDP Gross Domestic Product INGO International Non-Governmental Organization LDC Least developed country NAPA National Adaptation Plan of Action NGO Non-governmental organization NPC National Planning Commission NWP National Water Plan NWRDC National Water Resources Development Council RBO River Basin Organization UNFCCC United Nations VDC Village Development
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