Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas The State of Current Knowledge Climate Change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas The State of Current Knowledge Surender P. Singh Isabella Bassignana-Khadka Bhaskar Singh Karky Eklabya Sharma International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu, Nepal, 2011 i Published by International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development GPO Box 3226, Kathmandu, Nepal Copyright © 2011 International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) All rights reserved. Published 2011 ISBN 978 92 9115 220 9 (printed) 978 92 9115 221 6 (electronic) LCCN 2011-312015 Printed and bound in Nepal by Hill Side Press (P) Ltd., Kathmandu, Nepal Production team Greta Pennington Rana (Consultant editor) A Beatrice Murray (Consultant editor) Andrea Perlis (Senior editor) Punam Pradhan (Layout and design) Asha Kaji Thaku (Editorial assistant) Note This publication may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. ICIMOD would appreciate receiving a copy of any publication that uses this publication as a source. No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever without prior permission in writing from ICIMOD. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the author(s). They are not attributable to ICIMOD and do not imply the expression of any opinion concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries, or the endorsement of any product. This publication is available in electronic form at www.icimod.org/publications Citation: Singh, SP; Bassignana-Khadka, I; Karky, BS; Sharma, E (2011) Climate change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas: The state of current knowledge. Kathmandu: ICIMOD ii Contents Foreword iv Preface vi Acknowledgements vii Acronyms and Abbreviations viii Executive Summary ix 1 Introduction 1 Global Significance of the World’s Mountain Areas 2 The Hindu Kush-Himalayan Region 3 The Mountain Agenda 6 2 Analysis of Change 8 Climate and Hydrology 8 Biodiversity and Ecosystems 23 Atmospheric Changes 32 3 Impacts 38 Impacts Related to Water 39 Impacts on Frequency and Intensity of Natural Hazards and Disasters 40 Impacts on Biodiversity 41 Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security 42 Impacts on Demography and Movement of Populations 43 Impacts on Human Health 46 Using Models to Predict Impact 48 Farmers’ Knowledge 49 4 Strategies to Address Climate Change 51 The Link Between Livelihoods and Ecosystem Services 51 Rewarding Providers for Ecosystem Services 52 Prospects for Sustainable Greening of the Himalayas 54 Improved Water Storage can Enhance Resilience to Climate Change 58 Mitigating the Effects of Black Carbon 59 Managing Biodiversity in a Warming World 60 Regional Cooperation 61 Country-Level Plans for Adaptation 62 5 The Way Forward 63 Identifying Knowledge Gaps, Scientific Uncertainties, and Challenges 64 Strategies to Fill Data Gaps and to Augment Systematic Observations 68 Identifying Capacity Building Needs in the Region 70 Linking Global and Regional Frameworks on Climate Change with Appropriate Regional-Level Policy Making and National Governance 71 Challenges and Opportunities 72 References 73 iii Foreword It is widely understood that the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region is one of the most ecologically sensitive and fragile areas in the world. This mountain system is also geographically, geologically, and culturally unique. It features immense mountains and extraordinary landscapes which are the source of livelihoods for hundreds of millions of people. Their importance has local, regional, and global dimensions. Over 200 million people live in the mountains, valleys, and hills of the Hind Kush-Himalayan region, and over 1 billion people live in the basins downstream. All told, an estimated 3 billion people benefit from the water and other goods and services that originate in the mountains above. The HKH region is undergoing dramatic change that is triggered largely by the economic growth of India and China and in part also by the ‘brown economy’ dominated by the countries of the Middle East. Globalisation and increased mobility have exacerbated the marginality of the mountain valleys while creating new opportunities, mostly outside the region. This change is complicated by growing climatic variability, which has now reached such a dimension that it can be talked about as climate change. In all likelihood, the effects of climate change will become evident here first and with the greatest intensity. The situation is compounded by the fact that the mountains in the region store vast quantities of water in the form of snow and ice, which is all part of the regional monsoon circulation patterns. The central role of the monsoon as the lifeline of regional agriculture may be changing. At present, not much is known about how mountain ecosystems will respond to these changes. We have clear indications that variations in temperature lead to accelerated melting of ice and snow and have an impact on biodiversity, water supplies, agriculture, and hazards; and that these effects will in turn have an impact on general human wellbeing. The fragility and inaccessibility of the mountain landscape, with scattered settlements and poor infrastructure, imply that mountain areas will suffer most. No other mountain system and no other coherent ecological system in the world has as significant a role in the livelihoods of as many people as the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. In recent years, the countries of the region have made efforts to undertake climate vulnerability assessments. These assessments have been useful in pointing out shortcomings and in indicating what measures need to be taken locally. Most of the countries have now developed national-level adaptation plans and strategies and are implementing them. Climate change transcends national boundaries, however, and plans on a national scale run the risk of being ineffective because they do not take regional-scale effects into consideration. This report synthesises the present knowledge about the consequences that climate change can have for the Hindu Kush-Himalayan mountain system. It indicates gaps in knowledge and shows a way forward for the future. What is the relevance of this information? We think that it is necessary for people to be knowledgeable in order to adapt and be resilient to change. At present, many adaptation measures are being devised without proper analysis and without a complete understanding of the source of the problems. Development packages often echo the agenda for sustainable rural development conceived in the 1970s. For the moment, this is justified; however, going forward it will be important to decide whether a change course may be beneficial; and for this scientific evidence is essential. This report captures the cutting-edge knowledge from the region with a specific focus on the mountain situation. It is intended to provide inputs to support the discussions that will take place at the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in June 2012 as well as in the context of other multilateral environmental agreements. What is happening in the Himalayas is an excellent indicator of climate change globally. The information that forms the basis of this report should therefore not only be of interest to planners and policy makers in the region, but should also provide vital inputs into global climate change negotiations. iv I would like to thank everyone involved in producing this synthesis report, including regional and international scientists who shared their expertise in an Authors’ Workshop held at ICIMOD (18–19 August 2011) and the authors who compiled the material from the workshop and the existing literature. I would also like to acknowledge the role played by the publications team in putting together the final report. Andreas Schild Director General ICIMOD v Preface This synthesis report summarises the most up-to-date knowledge from scientific enquiries into the impacts of climate change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan (HKH) region. When the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its fourth assessment report (AR4) in 2007, data for the whole HKH region were for the most part absent, and to date the situation for the entire region remains largely underreported. This year ICIMOD has undertaken the task of contacting scientists working in the HKH region to bring to light the progress that has been made in the intervening four years. Are the data available today sufficient to evaluate climate change in the region? What do the available data tell us? On 18 and 19 August 2011, leading experts in the different fields of climate science (including climatology, hydrology, and environmental science) from across the region and abroad gathered at an Authors’ Workshop in Kathmandu to help answer these questions. The intention in gathering these researchers together was to replace the data deficit ‘white spot’ of 2007 with state-of-the-art information on the region and to indicate what gaps in knowledge still need to be bridged. Since the AR4 was first published, a considerable amount of research has been initiated, and it is likely that the next report, the AR5, which is due out in 2013, will give a more comprehensive picture of the region. The aim of the present report is to assist the countries of the HKH to bridge the knowledge gap by disseminating the most up-to-date science-based information available. The countries can use this information to participate more knowledgeably in the meetings of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the IPCC. The content of this report should also provide important inputs to support the discussions that will be held in conjunction with the United Nations Conference on Sustainable Development (Rio+20) in June 2012 and in the contexts of other multilateral environmental agreements. The authors assembled this synthesis report from presentations and discussions that took place at the Authors’ Workshop.