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Punters Guide NRL Round 2 Tip Sheet a Good Start to the Season

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Punters Guide NRL Round 2 Tip Sheet a Good Start to the Season Punters Guide NRL Round 2 Tip Sheet A good start to the season last week with winners galore. Fingers crossed for a big Round 2. Round 1 Results: 25 units bet, +16.43 units for POT of +65.72% Penrith v Canterbury Both teams will go under more often than not in 2016 and a match on a short preparation against each other seems ripe for a low-scoring match. Matches featuring home underdogs in the first four rounds since 2009 have hit at a rate of 51-34 while at night the under is 34-20. Canterbury have gone 14-5 under off a 20-point win while the Panthers are 18-11 under after conceding 30 points. Seven of the last 11 matches have totalled under 38 points between the two teams. Recommended Bet: Under 38.5 @ $1.93 – Sportsbet [4 units] Brisbane v New Zealand No real interest in this match. There is a slight lean to the Warriors with the points but they were so bad in the first half against the Tigers that they won’t be getting any of mine anytime soon. Home favourites who conceded fewer than 6 points are 43-29 ATS since 2009 and Brisbane are excellent at home with a 13-5 ATS at Suncorp in their last 18. At nearly double digits though this goes through to the keeper. Recommended Bet: No Bet Canberra v Sydney Roosters If this match gets played in dry conditions then very keen to bet the over. Unfortunately early forecasts give around 70% chance of rain. Canberra day matches have gone over 57-31 since 2008 while they have gone over in 14 of the last 18 where the Raiders have been a home underdog in day games. The Roosters are 6-1 over in road day games since 2001. The last five matches between the sides have averaged 43.6. Recommended Bet: Over 40.5 @ $1.90 – William Hill [4 units]* *Weather watch – disregard bet if heavy rain South Sydney v Newcastle Nothing even close to a bet in this one. Newcastle at the plus for the junkies but only based on the 10- 25 ATS number for teams who scored 25-plus wins in Round 1 since 2009. Recommended Bet: No Bet Parramatta v North Queensland Keen to play Parramatta as a home underdog in this one with Kieran Foran back and Corey Norman cleared of serious injury. The Eels have won 6 of the last 8 against the Cowboys at Parramatta Stadium and should have won last year when blowing a 30-6 lead. Since 2012 Parramatta are 18-10 ATS as a home underdog at Parra Stadium. Home teams off a loss where they failed to score double digit points are 35-23 ATS. Defending premiers do not go well early in the season in recent years while the Cowboys are 7-11 ATS as road favourites since 2013. Recommended Bet: Parramatta +4.5 @ $1.92 – Crownbet [4 units] Parramatta @ $2.50 – Crownbet, Bet365, Luxbet [1 unit] Cronulla v St George Illawarra This derby game is one of my favourites of the season but no bets to be had. These teams naturally play under matches but early-season day matches play over. The Saints plus is tempting but there are no notable angles to push while as long as the club continues to play this ridiculous backline that has four of the back five out of position then they are a risk too great to take. Recommended Bet: No Bet Melbourne v Gold Coast The Gold Coast Titans with the monster start are the bet of the week and will be one of the top plays of the season. The line in this is utterly ridiculous. Betting the Titans interstate is a great habit to be in. They are 26-12 ATS since 2012 interstate while they are 23-11 ATS as an interstate favourite. The Titans interstate in the first two months of the season: 28-10 ATS, 12-1 ATS in their last 13, when getting a start of more than a converted try 13-3 ATS with 11 wins. The Storm have covered just 10 of their last 30 when favoured by 8 or more points. The confidence on betting the Titans plus – with a small kicker straight out – is very high. Recommended Bet: Gold Coast +16 @ $1.92 – Luxbet [8 units] Gold Coast @ $6.00 – Crownbet [0.5 units] Wests Tigers v Manly Manly were embarrassing in Round 1 and I’m not sure things will change anytime soon with Dylan Walker at five-eighth and Brett Stewart on the sidelines. Home underdogs of more than a try at night in the opening four rounds of the season since 2008 are 22-4 ATS with the Tigers a perfect 4-0 ATS. That is a very strong angle that make the Tigers a good play. Recommended Bet: Wests Tigers +5.5 @ $2.00 – Bet 365 [4 units] .
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