Geopolitical overview of Spanish Institute of conflicts 2013 Strategic Studies SPANISH MINISTRY OF DEFENCE Geopolitical overview Spanish Institute of of conflicts 2013 Strategic Studies February 2014 SPANISH MINISTRY OF DEFENCE SPANISH OFFICIAL PUBLICATIONS CATALOGUE http://publicacionesoficiales.boe.es Publishes: SECRETARÍA GENERAL TÉCNICA http://publicaciones.defensa.gob.es/ © Author and Publisher, 2013 NIPO: 083-13-271-0 (paper edition) NIPO: 083-13-270-5 (e-book edition) ISBN: 978-84-9781-905-3 (edition paper) ISBN: 978-84-9781-906-0 (e-book edition) Legal deposit: M-33117-2013 Publication date: february 2014 Printed by: Spanish Ministry of Defence The authors are solely responsible for the opinions expresed in the articles in this publication. The exploitation righits of this work are protected by the Spanish Intellectual Property Act. 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CONTENTS Chapter one How conflicts have evolved .............................................................................. 7 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Chapter two Mali: security, democracy and development to overcome the con- flict ....................................................................................................................... 25 Jesús Díez Alcalde Chapter three Syria: war, sectarianism and chaos .............................................................. 57 Mario Laborie Iglesias Chapter four Georgia and its separatist territories: beyond the point of no re- turn ...................................................................................................................... 95 Manuel de Miguel Ramírez Chapter five The strait of Hormuz. In the eye of the hurricane ................................... 119 Emilio Sánchez de Rojas Chapter six The fragile Ivorian stability: stranded between the lesser of two evils and open conflict ................................................................................. 143 Jorge Bolaños Martínez Chapter seven Kenya: the politicisation of diversity ............................................................. 171 Blanca Palacián de Inza 5 Page Chapter eight Conflict and disputes in the Ferghana valley ............................................ 197 Federico Aznar Fernández-Montesinos Chapter nine Afghanistan: on the eve of a decisive 2014 ............................................... 227 Francisco José Berenguer Hernández Chapter ten Development of the conflict in Pakistan. An uncertain future ........... 255 Andrés González Martín Chapter eleven India. The naxalite insurgency ......................................................................... 287 María José Caro Chapter twelve China’s inner ring. Strength or weakness? ................................................ 311 Ignacio García Sánchez Chapter thirteen The ethnic conflicts in Myanmar: Kachin .................................................... 341 María del Mar Hidalgo García Chapter fourteen Indonesia. The east Papua conflict ................................................................ 369 Ignacio García Palomero Chapter fifteen The Colombian peace process......................................................................... 391 Miguel Ángel Serrano Monteavaro 6 How conflicts have evolved Chapter one Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín Abstract The emergence of new, multifaceted risks and threats acts as a driver for the proliferation of asymmetric conflicts, and it becomes necessary to ex- amine how these evolve in their various aspects: the Tofflers’ social and political paradigms, developments in wars, the features of asymmetric conflicts, trends for capabilities and the strategies for facing up to them. All of this is needed if we are to conduct a proper analysis. Keywords Asymmetric conflict, Third wave, Fourth generation wars, capabilities, asymmetric strategies. 7 How conflicts have evolved Introduction In effectively approaching the matter of resolving conflicts, it is important to be aware of their nature, characteristics, how they evolve, the trends they take and the geopolitical factors that have a bearing on them. Cor- rect analysis of how they evolve will help us infer what they will be like in the future and what the best strategies are, and will be, to face up to them, all the while taking into account the international situation. Sociopolitical paradigms and conflicts In his book The Third Wave, Alvin Toffler1 establishes three sociopolitical and economic phenomena which he calls «waves», featuring the agricul- tural, industrial and information societies. Such waves do not come in succession but instead often converge, overlap and, on occasions, when none are predominant, clash with each other, giving rise to tensions. In a later book entitled War and Anti-War2, Alvin and his wife, Heidi Toffler, -ex plain how these waves are mirrored in the polemological causes of wars and the way in which conflicts develop. The «First Wave» coincides with the agrarian revolution, where military conflicts are fought out by tiny armies comprising peasants and serv- ants mobilized by their master for the time needed to wage war. In Eu- rope and North America this period lasted from antiquity up to the French and American revolutions. According to Alvin Toffler, this first wave has been passed and there are only very few territories where it still pre- vails, although certain failed or very weak states remain where so-called «warlords« hold sway. The latter represent a phenomenon typical of the Middle Ages in Europe that still survives in countries such as Somalia or Afghanistan. Their presence is inevitable when there is no strong state authority. In the Balkan wars of the 1990s, warlords emerged naturally and devastatingly with the collapse of the Yugoslavian apparatus3. In Afghanistan or Somalia, which are predominantly rural countries, the First Wave prevails. In them the warlords possess a great capacity for mobilizing armed groups to protect their own interests. Despite scant economic and material resources, they dovetail their fighting with their farming activities. They temporarily band into groups that are poor- ly-armed yet particularly talented at asymmetric warfare due to their 1 Toffler, Alvin. La Tercera Ola (The Third Wave), Barcelona, Barcelona: Plaza & Janés Editores, 1995, pp. 20, 21. 2 Toffler, Alvin and Heidi. Las Guerras del Futuro (War and Anti-War), Barcelona: Plaza & Janés Editores, 1995. 3 Moran Blanco, Sagrario and Gonzalez Martín, Andrés, Asymmetry, Warfare and Infor- mation, Madrid: Publ. Dilex S.L., 2009, p. 38. 9 Miguel Ángel Ballesteros Martín knowledge of how the land lies, and as they move with their faces con- cealed among the civilian populace, with a high degree of control over the area and substantial support from the locals, they make the most of any means available to cobble together explosive devices. Their diminished logistical capabilities impose limits on the scale of their operations and how long these last, and they confine their activities to a specific geo- graphical environment, where the combatants rub shoulders with organ- ised crime. Armed and organized by warlords, these groups are not directly answer- able to any state structures, so they can behave more brutally, without taking any heed of international law4. This gives them an edge over con- ventional armies, which are slow to adapt their strategies. The absence of a state presence in regions where warlords hold sway favours this sort of conflict. The «Second Wave» coincides with the first industrial revolution in the 18th and 19th centuries and the second industrial revolution in the 19th and 20th centuries. In the USA and Europe this wave extends to the late 1950s, with the take-off of Information Technology. During the Second Wave states use large armies to defend themselves, sustained by con- scription, which was even employed by a few to try and extend their power and influence. Warfare in this period brings large armies face to face, giving rise to numerous casualties. Industrialisation leads to stand- ardisation of weapons and logistical development. This age takes in both of the two great world wars, which saw the theatre of battle spread out further with the arrival on the scene of air-forces. Air-power thus comes into play, which took on special significance at the hands of thinkers such as the Italian, Douhet, the Soviet, Severrsky, or the American, Mitchell. Time would tell that it would be the combination of capabilities on joint operations which would allow military victory to be achieved in clashes. The Arab-Israeli wars provided the testing ground where the blending of air power with armour was tried out successfully. Today we are witnesses to a new theatre for confrontation, cyberspace, and, much as we saw earlier, there are some who think that this will prove decisive. While it is important, however, it will be just another dimension in the mix, along with land, sea or air, and even space. Having revolutionized life in Europe, North America and certain other parts of the globe in only a few centuries, this Second Wave continues to expand throughout other parts of the world5. At present, a significant 4 Jordan, Javier and Calvo, José Luis, The new face of warfare. Pamplona: EUNSA Uni- versity of Navarre, 2005, pp. 24-25. 5