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The Prevalence of Diabetes in the Republic of Kazakhstan Based on Regression Analysis Methods

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The Prevalence of Diabetes in the Republic of Kazakhstan Based on Regression Analysis Methods International Journal of Health and Medical Sciences volume 5 pp. 08-16 doi: https://dx.doi.org/10.20469/ijhms.5.30002-1 The Prevalence of Diabetes in the Republic of Kazakhstan Based on Regression Analysis Methods A. Mukasheva ∗ N. Saparkhojayev Department of Cybersecurity, Khoja Akhmet Yassawi International Data Processing and Storage, Kazakh-Turkish University, Satbayev University, Almaty, Kazakhstan Turkestan, Kazakhstan Z. Akanov A. Algazieva Kazakh Society for Study of Diabetes, Academy of Civil Aviation, Member of AASD, Almaty, Kazakhstan Almaty, Kazakhstan Abstract: In this research paper, experimental studies of regression analysis methods for predicting diabetes mellitus patients for 2019 in the Republic of Kazakhstan were conducted. Linear, polynomial, and exponential regressions meth- ods were considered, after which appropriate graphs were built. According to these results, the growth of development of patients with diabetes mellitus will not decrease. This is another confirmation that researchers need to apply new modern information technologies based on machine learning and artificial intelligence to struggle with the growth of this disease. Based on the results obtained, it can be concluded that early detection of the disease and preventive measures to increase risk awareness and complications of diabetes in the population is an important vector in preventing diabetes. Keywords: Regression analysis, diabetes mellitus, statistics, forecasting Received: 03 January 2019; Accepted: 02 February 2019; Published: 08 March 2019 I. INTRODUCTION the following research paper [5] published a report where According to research published by the World Health the study of the relationship between medical literacy, Organization, the prevalence of diabetes mellitus is in- awareness of complications and diabetic control among creasing rapidly in countries with medium and low in- patients with diabetes of second type is being studied. come [1]. The Global Diabetes Report claims that the Early diagnosis of diabetes and its timely treatment in- disease is one of the four priority non-infectious diseases, creases the patient’s chances of not starting the disease the consequences, and complications of which lead to until the last stage. In this regard, it is recommended in substantial economic costs for both people and the health the conditions of primary health care to recommend to system of any country as a whole [2]. To date, interna- the population to have access to undergo an examination tional and state organizations provide reliable statistical for the analysis of the level of glucose in the blood [2]. information and an estimation of the prevalence of the Such an experiment was conducted by researchers [6] disease around the world. Propagation of such agencies in order to identify the level of awareness and knowl- in the field of prevention directed to raise public aware- edge about diabetes of second type and its complications ness in promoting specific models of care and resources among university students. A similar experiment [7] was to fight the people with the disease [3, 4]. The authors of conducted among the adult urban population of India and ∗Correspondence concerning this article should be addressed to A. Mukasheva, Department of ybersecurity, Data Processing and Storage, Satbayev University, Almaty, Kazakhstan. E-mail: [email protected] c 2019 The Author(s). Published by KKG Publications. This is an Open Access article distributed under a Creative Commons Attribution- NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License. 9 Mukasheva A. et al. / International Journal of Health and Medical Sciences 5, 2019 identifying factors influencing awareness, including the and diabetes remain different problems - not all obese presence of diabetes. Analyzing the situation, it can be people develop diabetes, and not all diabetics have weight safely assumed that not informing the public about the problems - they are so closely interrelated that researchers hidden threats of this disease are of great harm to health often mix them. The authors of the study [21] explain and cause material harm. As noted by researchers [8], that the opening of international trade markets, accompa- educating patients about the disease and assuming respon- nied by economic growth, takes into account the influx of sibility for day-to-day control of the situation is the key cheap processed foods. Carbonated drinks and products to success in recovery. The situation in Kazakhstan is that use large amounts of sugar imported from abroad also disappointing; only according to WHO [9] the preva- offer a cheap substitute for a traditional diet and put the lence of diabetes in men is 11.3%, and in women it is population at risk for diabetes. However, correlation stud- 11.7% with a total population of 17 million people. Ac- ies suggest only trends and the relationship between dia- cording to medical specialists [10] the number of people betes and diet, and population data cannot scientifically with diabetes in Kazakhstan will increase to a million prove that sugar causes diabetes. by 2030, which is a huge problem for the country, and It can be assumed that improving living standards this is the main reason for active research in this area. and urbanization may not cause diabetes; the economy To improve the situation with diabetes, researchers be- demonstrates the impact on the country of refined sugar gan to pay attention to the use of forecasting methods in and processed foods. It seems that with a lot of money, medicine, because forecasting demonstrates the serious- people started buying processed foods that they could ness of the disease and the need to take drastic measures not afford before, but this is a by-product of economic for its non-proliferation. According to the authors [11] growth. According to the data, the growing share of the studies from 91 countries were used to calculate the preva- average human diet from sugar is associated not with lence of diabetes by age and sex to determine national Gross Domestic Product, but with an increase in food diabetes prevalence rates in all 216 countries for 2010 imports [21]. and 2030. The possibility of using information systems According to this study [22], the prevalence of dia- in diagnosing diabetes is demonstrated in these studies betes in China over the past three decades has increased [12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17], where the possibilities of using dramatically. Diabetes has become a major public health big data technology as a tool were considered. problem in China. The estimated prevalence of predia- Many chronic diseases spread rapidly and are at later betes in 2013 was 35.7%, which was much higher than stages in South Asia than in other regions. In South the estimate of 15.5% in the 2008 survey. Similarly, the Asians, type 2 diabetes develops at a younger middle age prevalence of prediabetes was higher among older people, and progresses faster than in other ethnic groups [18]. men, and overweight and obese people. In addition, the To date, mortality from infectious diseases such as prevalence of diabetes in young people is relatively high malaria and tuberculosis has declined sharply, and chronic and increasing. The prevalence of diabetes in the age diseases such as cancer and diabetes are increasing. This group of 20 to 39 years was 3.2%. model is associated with economic improvement and an As noted above, the prevention of diabetes in the lo- increase in the number of people living longer, but it cal population in China has an important role. It is better forces governments in developing countries to fight for to prevent a disease than to treat its irreversible conse- new and often more costly treatments for diseases that quences. Especially with a population showing growth lead to additional costs [19]. rates in the economy, all of these conditions are conducive According to official statistics from the International to the spread of diabetes, and preventive measures must Diabetes Federation (MDF), in 2015, in seven countries, be taken at the state level. there were more than ten million people with diabetes: China, India, the United States of America, Brazil, Rus- A. Forecasting in Medicine sian Federation, Mexico, and Indonesia. Today, about 422 Prediction can be obtained by substituting variables million people aged 20 to 79 have it, while 47 percent of into the regression equation. Having determined the con- diabetes-related deaths occur before the age of 60. By fidence intervals, you can apply them in the prediction. 2040, one in ten - 642 million people - according to MDF Regression analysis is widely used, which is an important forecasts, will have this condition [20]. statistical method for analyzing medical data. The main Combined with increased life expectancy and in- purpose of the statistical evaluation of medical data is to comes that enable people to buy more food, it can lead describe the relationship between two variables [23]. to an increase in obesity worldwide. Although obesity This article applies a new methodological framework Mukasheva A. et al. / International Journal of Health and Medical Sciences 5, 2019 10 where two models are defined based on linear regres- life of patients with colorectal cancer [28]. sion, as rising health care costs motivate the search for ways to improve the effectiveness of care [24]. The re- II. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS sults of the following study [25] demonstrate regression Today, it can be seen as a high interest in statisti- methods that are appropriate for analyzing health care cal models that are used in many studies in the field of costs, after which these methods were applied under ex- economics and health policy [29]. As a result of direct perimental conditions in the treatment of cardiovascular interaction with specialists working in this field with re- diseases and under conditions of monitoring the treatment searchers, the result is increased to obtain reliable infor- of diabetes patients. Differences were shown between mation. This opportunity was provided by the authors of methods giving different results depending on the degree the research article [30].
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