Commentary 21 December 2017

International Crisis Group

By Issandr El Amrani, Project Director, North Africa

New Risks in as Dismisses UN-backed Accord

Tensions are rising in Libya after the de Troubling Ambition facto ruler of the country’s east, Field Haftar’s announcement was not unexpected. Marshal Khalifa Haftar, publicly dismissed As the ongoing UN-led peace process has the two-year-old international deal on how drifted since October, when the last round of Libya should be governed. To neutralise the negotiations to revise the LPA ended inconclu- risk of new conflict, Haftar’s international sively, he and his allies had repeatedly warned and regional allies should forcefully that they consider the agreement close to expi- condemn his attempt at undermining the ration and that another framework would have UN-led peace process and urge him back to be found. to the diplomatic track. In parallel, Haftar supporters promoted a petition to appoint him as military ruler of The latest row started on 17 December, the Libya, which they claimed garnered over one second anniversary of the 2015 Libyan Politi- million signatures. Calls for mass demonstra- cal Agreement (LPA), when Haftar, the com- tions in support of Haftar have also spread, mander-in-chief of the although protests largely failed to materialise. (LNA) that dominates eastern Libya, announced Indeed, Haftar’s announcement has had scant that he considered the LPA to have expired. impact so far and has not changed the situation As a result, he argued, institutions ema- on the ground. nating from the agreement such as the Gov- Politically, Haftar’s moves raise several ernment of National Accord and Presidency troubling questions. The first is whether Haftar Council headed by Fayez al-Serraj are no longer and the LNA are effectively declaring civilian officially valid. Haftar said that his own LNA is institutions moot. This has already happened now the “sole legitimate institution” in Libya, in eastern Libya, where he has bypassed an and rejected the authority of any government increasingly defunct eastern government and or parliament until new elections can be held. the House of Representatives (HoR), the parlia- He made his statement after his allies moved ment based in the town of , to which to occupy eastern offices of the High National he is allied. The HoR, on 21 November, had Elections Commission, which is preparing for endorsed the UN’s proposed action plan for a elections in 2018 with international support. partial amendment of the LPA, and is supposed His allies also have made calls for the commis- to play an important role during the transition sion’s staff to be changed and its headquarters to a more permanent arrangement. It is not moved from , the capital. clear what Haftar’s announcement means for INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 21 DECEMBER 2017

“Worries about a Haftar offensive could also prompt pre-emptive or opportunistic attacks by Haftar opponents.” the HoR’s own position, and whether it too has This important city is a dominant military and “expired”, since its lifespan was extended by political actor, and the killing risks widening the LPA. multiple divisions: between factions that are The second question is what Haftar and his open to a deal with Haftar and those that reject allies plan to do next, and how their opponents any compromise with him; between the city’s will react. Anticipation of the 17 December Municipal Council and its Military Council; and announcement, and of an offensive by Haftar’s between locals and members of armed groups LNA, has already caused some armed groups driven out of by the LNA and now from to mobilise near . Indeed, based in Misrata. worries about a Haftar offensive could also Some residents of Misrata – without any prompt pre-emptive or opportunistic attacks evidence – wonder whether the assassination by Haftar opponents, who have previously may have been carried out by Haftar allies, who confronted his forces in the “oil crescent”, an would stand to benefit from sowing further area containing key oil installations in the divisions. Likewise, rumours are circulating Gulf of Sirte. This is particularly true in parts that the ex-Benghazi armed groups in the city of western Libya under the nominal control are planning to take advantage of growing of militias that broadly accept the legitimacy east-west tensions by launching a new offen- of the Tripoli-based government but fear that sive on the oil installations of the Gulf of Sirte, Haftar allies are planning to assert themselves. currently held by the LNA. Two such previous These include the area around that attempts were repelled. saw fighting in October as well as the capital. At the same time, Misratan armed groups Thirdly, many Libyans are wondering how are reportedly consolidating around Sirte, the long Haftar can continue to challenge, without city they liberated from the Islamic State (ISIS) any consequences, the international consensus a year ago, hoping to pre-empt an attempt by that a political solution to the Libyan conflict pro-Haftar groups to take it over. And in Tripoli must be found. As he acknowledged in his and its environs, the prospect looms of renewed 17 December statement, Haftar has received tensions between armed groups that could align repeated warnings from the international com- with Haftar’s camp and those opposed to him. munity against carrying through his threat of declaring the expiration of the LPA and, more The Need for a Clear, Unified Response generally, undermining UN-led peace efforts. The potential for a new escalation from various The UN Security Council did so several times in camps has increased, not least because Haftar’s past months, most recently on 14 December, as declaration has added fuel to Libya’s slow- did the many international and regional states burning fires. The UN Security Council and supporting the UN process. Haftar’s closest states that have supported the peace process international supporters, and the United have been muted in their response until now. Arab Emirates, have reportedly intervened Most actors prefer to avoid comment or merely directly with him. to reiterate, as did the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative to Libya, Ghassan Growing Tensions Salamé on 17 December, calls that parties to the Amid this uncertainty, other developments on conflict should “refrain from any actions that 17 December are adding to the confusion. One could undermine the political process”. Per- is the assassination by unknown assailants of haps they calculate that no actual hostile action Mohammed Eshtewi, the mayor of Misrata. has been taken and that Haftar’s declaration INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP · 21 DECEMBER 2017 has been a flop, as some of his opponents been snubbed by their client once again, as well argue, and can be ignored. as countries such as France and Russia, which Libyans, however, are watching closely and have done much to engage with him and push may interpret this silence as a lack of interest, him toward diplomacy over the past year. if not assent. Given that successive efforts by Admonitions may not convince Haftar international actors to engage with Haftar in himself, who appears to be tenaciously cling- pursuit of a negotiated political settlement have ing to his ambition of becoming either Libya’s yet again met with his defiance, they should military ruler or its next president. But they speak out more forcefully and condemn this lat- would signal to other actors that the interna- est attempt at undermining it. It is particularly tional community is intent on defending the important that private frustrations be vented process that Salamé and others have put in publicly by Haftar’s regional allies, Egypt and place, whose broad outlines have been accepted the , who appear to have by a wide range of Libyans.