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Obama for America December 31, 2007 Obama for America ObamaObama forfor AmericaAmerica DecemberDecember 31,31, 20072007 DavidDavid PlouffePlouffe CampaignCampaign ManagerManager Iowa – Crowd Size Comparisons All are post-Christmas, 2007 120 Nevada, IA 500 225 Davenport, IA 950 Webster City, IA 200 Edwards 330 Clinton Caroll, IA 400 600 Obama 200 Mason City, IA 400 650 100 Clinton, IA 200 365 0 200 400 600 800 1000 IOWAIOWA ••StrongestStrongest OrganizationOrganization inin thethe state.state. •• 3737 fieldfield officesoffices state-wide;state-wide; overover 200200 fieldfield staffers;staffers; thousandsthousands ofof activeactive volunteersvolunteers Iowa • Obama is positioned to be a strong second choice candidate. • Obama is strongest amongst those planning to attend the caucuses. • Obama is expanding into new universes throughout Iowa. Special Interest Spending on behalf of Edwards and Clinton $3,000,000 $2,618,852.98 $2,500,000 $2,086,039.53 $2,000,000 $1,500,000 $1,000,000 $500,000 $0 $0 Obama Clinton Edwards On behalf of Clinton: AFSCME: $1,333,456.96; AFT: $799,618.59; Emily’s List: $485,777.43 On behalf of Edwards: Working for Working Americans/Carpenters: $526,440.76; Alliance for a New America (SEIU): $1,559,598.77; NewNew Hampshire:Hampshire: ●● FirstFirst TVTV adsads beganbegan SeptemberSeptember 25th25th ●● LargestLargest fieldfield operationoperation inin statstatee withwith 1616 fieldfield offices,offices, mostmost aggressiveaggressive door-to-doordoor-to-door operationoperation andand overover 100100 staffstaff • Nearly 1.6 million calls made • Over 330,000 doors knocked ● Strong volunteer base actively signing up thousands of supporters throughout New England ● Strong help from Governor Patrick in neighboring MA ● Big Independent voter block (at least 44%) that can vote in Primary and are more favorable to Obama. Obama has Closed the Gap with Clinton in New Hampshire, latest polls show Obama leading SOUTHSOUTH CAROLINA:CAROLINA: •African American voters could make up as much as 55% of the primary electorate. •First candidate to run ads on all 36 African American radio stations • Went on the air with state-wide television ads on December 18th. •Obama leads overall and with African American voters in South Carolina and wins more than 20% of white voters •Obama’s field operation is considered the best in the history of South Carolina with 11 field offices across the state and over 50 field staff •Even political veterans are impressed with what they are seeing of Obama's operation on the ground. In South Carolina, an early- primary state where 30% of the population is black, his young volunteers are out knocking on doors every weekend. "It is a new crowd," says former South Carolina Democratic chairman Donald Fowler, "and it is the most methodical voter-canvassing project I have ever seen in South Carolina." (Time Magazine, 9/27/2007) Obama has Taken Lead in South Carolina 45% 45% Obama 40% Clinton 35% 35%34% Edwards 30% 27% 25% 20% 15% 13% 10% 7% 5% 0% 9/6-9/10; LA 12/13-12/17, CBS Times/Bloomberg News NEVADANEVADA •Most offices open of any candidate, with 11 offices across the state •Largest field operation with over 50 field staffers •First candidate on TV, airing first commercial December 11th •First candidate to run state-wide Spanish language ads NEVADA: Obama Gaining Strength as Jan. 19th approaches 39% 40% Obama -18% 34% 35% -8% Clinton 30% Edwards 26% 25% 21% 20% 15% 10% 9% 9% 5% 0% 10/9-10/11 12/3-12/5 Source: Mason Dixon Polling Barack Obama Has Developed an Unprecedented National Grassroots Campaign Record Breaking Number of New Donors • 472,630 = total number of unique donors **(as of 6:30 pm, 12/30/2007) • 757,565 = total number of contributions • A total of 16,110 maxed our contributors, only 3.4% of all donors • Average of 1.6 donations per contributor • Senator Obama is the one candidate in this race who’s not getting any help from Washington lobbyists, special interest PACs, or the shadowy Washington-based organizations called 527s. He’s getting his support from ordinary Americans. February 5th 22 States have primaries or caucuses •At least $100 million will be necessary to fully compete in first 26 states. Obama will have the financial resources. •The Obama campaign currently has 32 offices open in 17 of the February 5 states. •Candidates need to start now to build organizations in the caucus states – MN-CO-KS-ID-AK-ND. We have offices open in all of the caucus states and are actively engaging our grassroots support. •Obama is first candidate to open offices and staff a majority of the Feb. 5 states. Accepting Public Funds Limits Capabilities Total Amount John Edwards Can Spend between January 3rd and the Democratic National Convention, August 25, 2008: $50,000,000 = Estimated Total Limit* - $32,745,299.97 = estimated Expenditures through Jan 3rd** = $17,254,700.03 *National spending cap through the convention: $50 million [CNN, 9/27/07]; Estimated Total Raised by Edwards = total raised through Q3, $30,121,494.26 + $10 million in matching funds + $7 million in estimated 4th quarter funds raised = $47,121,494.26 **total spent through Q3, $17,745,299.97 + estimated $15 million spent in Q4 GEORGIA: Latest Polling Shows Obama in the Lead 35% 33% 31% 30% 25% 20% 16% Obama 15% Clinton Edwards 10% 5% 0% 12/21/2007 Source: Atlanta Journal Constitution Poll, 12/21/2007 CALIFORNIA: Obama Gaining Momentum 60% 57% 50% 50% 49% 40% Obama 30% 30% 24% Clinton 20% 20% Edwards 16% 13% 14% 10% 0% Oct-07 Nov-07 Dec-07 Source: Survey USA in CA Electability •Barack Obama is the Democratic candidate with the most support amongst Republicans and Independents •A recent (12/12/2007) Zogby poll demonstrates that Barack Obama is the most likely to win next November: Obama is the only Democrat to Beat Every Republican in a Head to Head Obama Republican Thompson Huckabee Romney Giuliani McCain 0% 20% 40% 60% Source: (12/12/2007) Zogby poll Clinton Loses to 3 out of 5 Leading Republicans in a Head to Head Clinton Republican Thompson Huckabee Romney Giuliani McCain 35% 40% 45% 50% Source: (12/12/2007) Zogby poll Half Dislike Clinton; Obama Most Liked Among General Election Voters: Clinton already has higher unfavorables than Gore or Kerry at any point in their losing campaigns Candidate Favorability Favorable Unfavorable 60% 57% 54% 52% 51% 48% 45% 42% 40% 30% 20% 0% Gore 10/10/99 Kerry 10/16/04 Hillary Clinton Obama 12/14/2007 12/14/2007 SOURCE: All numbers from Gallup polling Independents Amongst the Democratic candidates Obama appeals most to Independent voters • Obama’s advantages over other Democratic candidates among Independents nationally demonstrate that he has the strongest change of winning in the general election. • Recent elections show that without winning a majority of Independent votes Democrats do not win. • John Kerry only won 49% of Independents and lost the general election in 2004. Obama Has Highest Favorability Among Independent Voters -9% + 22% 50% +16% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% Fav 20% Unfav 15% 10% 5% 0% Obama Clinton Edwards Source: Fox News Poll, 12/14/2007.
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