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Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century
Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century § Adrien Auclert∗ Hannes Malmbergy Frédéric Martenetz Matthew Rognlie August 2021 Abstract We use a sufficient statistic approach to quantify the general equilibrium effects of population aging on wealth accumulation, expected asset returns, and global im- balances. Combining population forecasts with household survey data from 25 coun- tries, we measure the compositional effect of aging: how a changing age distribution affects wealth-to-GDP, holding the age profiles of assets and labor income fixed. In a baseline overlapping generations model this statistic, in conjunction with cross- sectional information and two standard macro parameters, pins down general equi- librium outcomes. Since the compositional effect is positive, large, and heterogeneous across countries, our model predicts that population aging will increase wealth-to- GDP ratios, lower asset returns, and widen global imbalances through the twenty-first century. These conclusions extend to a richer model in which bequests, individual savings, and the tax-and-transfer system all respond to demographic change. ∗Stanford University, NBER and CEPR. Email: [email protected]. yUniversity of Minnesota. Email: [email protected]. zStanford University. Email: [email protected]. §Northwestern University and NBER. Email: [email protected]. For helpful comments, we thank Rishabh Aggarwal, Mark Aguiar, Anmol Bhandari, Olivier Blanchard, Maricristina De Nardi, Charles Goodhart, Nezih Guner, Fatih Guvenen, Daniel Harenberg, Martin Holm, Gregor Jarosch, Patrick Kehoe, Patrick Kiernan, Pete Klenow, Dirk Krueger, Kieran Larkin, Ellen McGrat- tan, Kurt Mitman, Ben Moll, Serdar Ozkan, Christina Patterson, Alessandra Peter, Jim Poterba, Jacob Rob- bins, Richard Rogerson, Ananth Seshadri, Isaac Sorkin, Kjetil Storesletten, Ludwig Straub, Amir Sufi, Chris Tonetti, David Weil, Arlene Wong, Owen Zidar and Nathan Zorzi. -
Global Wealth Inequality
EC11CH05_Zucman ARjats.cls August 7, 2019 12:27 Annual Review of Economics Global Wealth Inequality Gabriel Zucman1,2 1Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, California 94720, USA; email: [email protected] 2National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019. 11:109–38 Keywords First published as a Review in Advance on inequality, wealth, tax havens May 13, 2019 The Annual Review of Economics is online at Abstract economics.annualreviews.org This article reviews the recent literature on the dynamics of global wealth https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics- Annu. Rev. Econ. 2019.11:109-138. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org inequality. I first reconcile available estimates of wealth inequality inthe 080218-025852 United States. Both surveys and tax data show that wealth inequality has in- Access provided by University of California - Berkeley on 08/26/19. For personal use only. Copyright © 2019 by Annual Reviews. creased dramatically since the 1980s, with a top 1% wealth share of approx- All rights reserved imately 40% in 2016 versus 25–30% in the 1980s. Second, I discuss the fast- JEL codes: D31, E21, H26 growing literature on wealth inequality across the world. Evidence points toward a rise in global wealth concentration: For China, Europe, and the United States combined, the top 1% wealth share has increased from 28% in 1980 to 33% today, while the bottom 75% share hovered around 10%. Recent studies, however, may underestimate the level and rise of inequal- ity, as financial globalization makes it increasingly hard to measure wealth at the top. -
Complementarity and Demand Theory: from the 1920S to the 1940S Jean-Sébastien Lenfant
Complementarity and Demand Theory: From the 1920s to the 1940s Jean-Sébastien Lenfant To cite this version: Jean-Sébastien Lenfant. Complementarity and Demand Theory: From the 1920s to the 1940s. History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, 2006, 38 (Suppl 1), pp.48 - 85. 10.1215/00182702-2005- 017. hal-01771852 HAL Id: hal-01771852 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01771852 Submitted on 19 Apr 2018 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Complementarity and Demand Theory: From the 1920s to the 1940s Jean-Sébastien Lenfant The history of consumer demand is often presented as the history of the transformation of the simple Marshallian device into a powerful Hick- sian representation of demand. Once upon a time, it is said, the Marshal- lian “law of demand” encountered the principle of ordinalism and was progressively transformed by it into a beautiful theory of demand with all the attributes of modern science. The story may be recounted in many different ways, introducing small variants and a comparative complex- ity. And in a sense that story would certainly capture much of what hap- pened. But a scholar may also have legitimate reservations about it, because it takes for granted that all the protagonists agreed on the mean- ing of such a thing as ordinalism—and accordingly that they shared the same view as to what demand theory should be. -
Quasilinear Approximations
Quasilinear approximations Marek Weretka ∗ August 2, 2018 Abstract This paper demonstrates that the canonical stochastic infinite horizon framework from both the macro and finance literature, with sufficiently patient consumers, is in- distinguishable in ordinal terms from a simple quasilinear economy. In particular, with a discount factor approaching one, the framework converges to a quasilinear limit in its preferences, allocation, prices, and ordinal welfare. Consequently, income effects associated with economic policies vanish, and equivalent and compensating variations coincide and become approximately additive for a set of temporary policies. This ordi- nal convergence holds for a large class of potentially heterogenous preferences that are in Gorman polar form. The paper thus formalizes the Marshallian conjecture, whereby quasilinear approximation is justified in those settings in which agents consume many commodities (here, referring to consumption in many periods), and unifies the general and partial equilibrium schools of thought that were previously seen as distinct. We also provide a consumption-based foundation for normative analysis based on social surplus. Key words: JEL classification numbers: D43, D53, G11, G12, L13 1 Introduction One of the most prevalent premises in economics is the ongoing notion that consumers be- have rationally. The types of rational preferences studied in the literature, however, vary considerably across many fields. The macro, financial and labor literature typically adopt consumption-based preferences within a general equilibrium framework, while in Industrial Organization, Auction Theory, Public Finance and other fields, the partial equilibrium ap- proach using quasilinear preferences is much more popular. ∗University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Economics, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706. -
Labour Supply
7/30/2009 Chapter 2 Labour Supply McGraw-Hill/Irwin Labor Economics, 4th edition Copyright © 2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. 2- 2 Introduction to Labour Supply • This chapter: The static theory of labour supply (LS), i. e. how workers allocate their time at a point in time, plus some extensions beyond the static model (labour supply over the life cycle; household fertility decisions). • The ‘neoclassical model of labour-leisure choice’. - Basic idea: Individuals seek to maximise well -being by consuming both goods and leisure. Most people have to work to earn money to buy goods. Therefore, there is a trade-off between hours worked and leisure. 1 7/30/2009 2- 3 2.1 Measuring the Labour Force • The US de finit io ns in t his sect io n a re s imila r to t hose in N Z. - However, you have to know the NZ definitions (see, for example, chapter 14 of the New Zealand Official Yearbook 2008, and the explanatory notes in Labour Market Statistics 2008, which were both handed out in class). • Labour Force (LF) = Employed (E) + Unemployed (U). - Any person in the working -age population who is neither employed nor unemployed is “not in the labour force”. - Who counts as ‘employed’? Size of LF does not tell us about “intensity” of work (hours worked) because someone working ONE hour per week counts as employed. - Full-time workers are those working 30 hours or more per week. 2- 4 Measuring the Labour Force • Labor Force Participation Rate: LFPR = LF/P - Fraction of the working-age population P that is in the labour force. -
ECON501- Short Questions
Graduate Microeconomics Short Study Questions Areas: 1. Consumer Demand Theory 2. Theory of the firm and Production 3. Competitive Markets Lecturer: Glenn P. Jenkins Indicate whether the following statements are true, false or uncertain and briefly explain why. Your grade will depend on your explanation. 1. If two goods are gross substitutes then the absolute value of the uncompensated cross price elasticity of demand must always be less than the absolute value of compensated cross price elasticity between these two goods. 2. The shares of income that individuals spend on every good will always be changing as the person’s income grows, unless the person’s income elasticity of demand for each goods is equal to one. 3. A fall in the price of automobiles will decrease the consumer surplus of the workers in the factory that produces the automobiles. 4. The cross-price elasticity of demand for automobiles with respect to the price of gasoline is equal to the cross- price elasticity of demand for gasoline with respect to the price of automobiles. 5. The sum of the uncompensated own and cross price elasticities of demand for any one good must be equal to the negative of the income elasticity of demand for the good. 6. An inferior good will always be inferior throughout the full range of incomes experienced by consumers. 7. If the MRSxy < Px/Py then the consumer would maximize utility if she would consume less of good X. 8. A consumer’s utility function containing two goods X and Y yields a set of indifference curves that are straight lines. -
Chapter 8 8 Slutsky Equation
Chapter 8 Slutsky Equation Effects of a Price Change What happens when a commodity’s price decreases? – Substitution effect: the commodity is relatively cheaper, so consumers substitute it for now relatively more expensive other commodities. Effects of a Price Change – Income effect: the consumer’s budget of $y can purchase more than before, as if the consumer’s income rose, with consequent income effects on quantities demanded. Effects of a Price Change Consumer’s budget is $y. x2 y Original choice p2 x1 Effects of a Price Change Consumer’s budget is $y. x 2 Lower price for commodity 1 y pivots the constraint outwards. p2 x1 Effects of a Price Change Consumer’s budget is $y. x 2 Lower price for commodity 1 y pivots the constraint outwards. p2 Now only $y’ are needed to buy the y' original bundle at the new prices , as if the consumer’s income has p2 increased by $y - $y’. x1 Effects of a Price Change Changes to quantities demanded due to this ‘extra’ income are the income effect of the price change. Effects of a Price Change Slutskyyg discovered that changes to demand from a price change are always the sum of a pure substitution effect and an income effect. Real Income Changes Slutsky asserted that if, at the new pp,rices, – less income is needed to buy the original bundle then “real income ” is increased – more income is needed to buy the original bundle then “real income ” is decreased Real Income Changes x2 Original budget constraint and choice x1 Real Income Changes x2 Original budget constraint and choice New budget constraint -
Theory of Consumer Behaviour
Theory of Consumer Behaviour Public Economy 1 What is Consumer Behaviour? • Suppose you earn 12,000 yen additionally – How many lunch with 1,000 yen (x1) and how many movie with 2,000 yen (x2) you enjoy? (x1, x2) = (10,1), (6,3), (3,4), (2,5), … – Suppose the price of movie is 1,500 yen? – Suppose the additional bonus is 10,000 yen? Public Economy 2 Consumer Behaviour • Feature of Consumer Behaviour • Consumption set (Budget constraint) • Preference • Utility • Choice • Demand • Revealed preference Public Economy 3 Feature of Consumer Behaviour Economic Entity Firm(企業), Consumer (家計), Government (経済主体) Household’s income Capital(資本), Labor(労働),Stock(株式) Consumer Firm Hire(賃料), Wage(賃金), Divided(配当) Goods Market (財・サービス市場) Price Demand Supply Quantity Consumer = price taker (価格受容者) Public Economy 4 Budget Set (1) • Constraint faced by consumer Possible to convert – Budget Constraint (income is limited) into monetary unit – Time Constraint (time is limited) under the given wage rate – Allocation Constraint Combine to Budget Constraint Generally, only the budget constraint is considered Public Economy 5 Budget Set (2) Budget Constraint Budget Constraint (without allocation constraint) (with allocation constraint) n pi xi I x2 i1 x2 Income Price Demand x1 x1 Budget Set (消費可能集合) B B 0 x1 0 x1 n n n n B x R x 0, pi xi I B x R x 0, pi xi I, x1 x1 i1 i1 Public Economy 6 Preference (1) • What is preference? A B A is (strictly) preferred to B (A is always chosen between A and B) A B A is preferred to B, or indifferent between two (B is never chosen between A and B) A ~ B A and B is indifferent (No difference between A and B) Public Economy 7 Preference (2) • Assumption regarding to preference 1. -
CONSUMER CHOICE 1.1. Unit of Analysis and Preferences. The
CONSUMER CHOICE 1. THE CONSUMER CHOICE PROBLEM 1.1. Unit of analysis and preferences. The fundamental unit of analysis in economics is the economic agent. Typically this agent is an individual consumer or a firm. The agent might also be the manager of a public utility, the stockholders of a corporation, a government policymaker and so on. The underlying assumption in economic analysis is that all economic agents possess a preference ordering which allows them to rank alternative states of the world. The behavioral assumption in economics is that all agents make choices consistent with these underlying preferences. 1.2. Definition of a competitive agent. A buyer or seller (agent) is said to be competitive if the agent assumes or believes that the market price of a product is given and that the agent’s actions do not influence the market price or opportunities for exchange. 1.3. Commodities. Commodities are the objects of choice available to an individual in the economic sys- tem. Assume that these are the various products and services available for purchase in the market. Assume that the number of products is finite and equal to L ( =1, ..., L). A product vector is a list of the amounts of the various products: ⎡ ⎤ x1 ⎢ ⎥ ⎢x2 ⎥ x = ⎢ . ⎥ ⎣ . ⎦ xL The product bundle x can be viewed as a point in RL. 1.4. Consumption sets. The consumption set is a subset of the product space RL, denoted by XL ⊂ RL, whose elements are the consumption bundles that the individual can conceivably consume given the phys- L ical constraints imposed by the environment. -
CHOICE – a NEW STANDARD for COMPETITION LAW ANALYSIS? a Choice — a New Standard for Competition Law Analysis?
GO TO TABLE OF CONTENTS GO TO TABLE OF CONTENTS CHOICE – A NEW STANDARD FOR COMPETITION LAW ANALYSIS? a Choice — A New Standard for Competition Law Analysis? Editors Paul Nihoul Nicolas Charbit Elisa Ramundo Associate Editor Duy D. Pham © Concurrences Review, 2016 GO TO TABLE OF CONTENTS All rights reserved. No photocopying: copyright licenses do not apply. The information provided in this publication is general and may not apply in a specifc situation. Legal advice should always be sought before taking any legal action based on the information provided. The publisher accepts no responsibility for any acts or omissions contained herein. Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent to the Institute of Competition Law, at the address below. Copyright © 2016 by Institute of Competition Law 60 Broad Street, Suite 3502, NY 10004 www.concurrences.com [email protected] Printed in the United States of America First Printing, 2016 Publisher’s Cataloging-in-Publication (Provided by Quality Books, Inc.) Choice—a new standard for competition law analysis? Editors, Paul Nihoul, Nicolas Charbit, Elisa Ramundo. pages cm LCCN 2016939447 ISBN 978-1-939007-51-3 ISBN 978-1-939007-54-4 ISBN 978-1-939007-55-1 1. Antitrust law. 2. Antitrust law—Europe. 3. Antitrust law—United States. 4. European Union. 5. Consumer behavior. 6. Consumers—Attitudes. 7. Consumption (Economics) I. Nihoul, Paul, editor. II. Charbit, Nicolas, editor. III. Ramundo, Elisa, editor. K3850.C485 2016 343.07’21 QBI16-600070 Cover and book design: Yves Buliard, www.yvesbuliard.fr Layout implementation: Darlene Swanson, www.van-garde.com GO TO TABLE OF CONTENTS ii CHOICE – A NEW STANDARD FOR COMPETITION LAW ANALYSIS? Editors’ Note PAUL NIHOUL NICOLAS CHARBIT ELISA RAMUNDO In this book, ten prominent authors offer eleven contributions that provide their varying perspectives on the subject of consumer choice: Paul Nihoul discusses how freedom of choice has emerged as a crucial concept in the application of EU competition law; Neil W. -
Substitution and Income Effect
Intermediate Microeconomic Theory: ECON 251:21 Substitution and Income Effect Alternative to Utility Maximization We have examined how individuals maximize their welfare by maximizing their utility. Diagrammatically, it is like moderating the individual’s indifference curve until it is just tangent to the budget constraint. The individual’s choice thus selected gives us a demand for the goods in terms of their price, and income. We call such a demand function a Marhsallian Demand function. In general mathematical form, letting x be the quantity of a good demanded, we write the Marshallian Demand as x M ≡ x M (p, y) . Thinking about the process, we can reverse the intuition about how individuals maximize their utility. Consider the following, what if we fix the utility value at the above level, but instead vary the budget constraint? Would we attain the same choices? Well, we should, the demand thus achieved is however in terms of prices and utility, and not income. We call such a demand function, a Hicksian Demand, x H ≡ x H (p,u). This method means that the individual’s problem is instead framed as minimizing expenditure subject to a particular level of utility. Let’s examine briefly how the problem is framed, min p1 x1 + p2 x2 subject to u(x1 ,x2 ) = u We refer to this problem as expenditure minimization. We will however not consider this, safe to note that this problem generates a parallel demand function which we refer to as Hicksian Demand, also commonly referred to as the Compensated Demand. Decomposition of Changes in Choices induced by Price Change Let’s us examine the decomposition of a change in consumer choice as a result of a price change, something we have talked about earlier. -
Lecture 4 " Theory of Choice and Individual Demand
Lecture 4 - Theory of Choice and Individual Demand David Autor 14.03 Fall 2004 Agenda 1. Utility maximization 2. Indirect Utility function 3. Application: Gift giving –Waldfogel paper 4. Expenditure function 5. Relationship between Expenditure function and Indirect utility function 6. Demand functions 7. Application: Food stamps –Whitmore paper 8. Income and substitution e¤ects 9. Normal and inferior goods 10. Compensated and uncompensated demand (Hicksian, Marshallian) 11. Application: Gi¤en goods –Jensen and Miller paper Roadmap: 1 Axioms of consumer preference Primal Dual Max U(x,y) Min pxx+ pyy s.t. pxx+ pyy < I s.t. U(x,y) > U Indirect Utility function Expenditure function E*= E(p , p , U) U*= V(px, py, I) x y Marshallian demand Hicksian demand X = d (p , p , I) = x x y X = hx(px, py, U) = (by Roy’s identity) (by Shepard’s lemma) ¶V / ¶p ¶ E - x - ¶V / ¶I Slutsky equation ¶p x 1 Theory of consumer choice 1.1 Utility maximization subject to budget constraint Ingredients: Utility function (preferences) Budget constraint Price vector Consumer’sproblem Maximize utility subjet to budget constraint Characteristics of solution: Budget exhaustion (non-satiation) For most solutions: psychic tradeo¤ = monetary payo¤ Psychic tradeo¤ is MRS Monetary tradeo¤ is the price ratio 2 From a visual point of view utility maximization corresponds to the following point: (Note that the slope of the budget set is equal to px ) py Graph 35 y IC3 IC2 IC1 B C A D x What’swrong with some of these points? We can see that A P B, A I D, C P A.