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A Safe Climate Is Possible Still

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A Safe Climate Is Possible Still still A safe climate is possible but only if we change the way we campaign Philip Sutton, Manager, RSTI 6 September 2014 (First released Nov 2013) / Version 1e The latest version of this paper can be downloaded from: http://www.green-innovations.asn.au/RSTI/A-safe-climate-is-still-possible.pdf Contents Introduction .....................................................................................................................................1 Where did we hope to be on climate action in 2013?......................................................................1 Where are we in fact with global warming now?............................................................................2 “+2ºC” is now “+1ºC”.............................................................................................................................................. 2 Extreme weather events are already dangerous........................................................................................................ 3 Too late for +2ºC? Is it now on to +4 ºC or +6ºC?................................................................................................... 5 But +2ºC is not the relevant threshold anymore and we can’t live with +4ºC or +6ºC, so what should we do?......7 Rethinking the climate goal – from “avoiding dangerous climate change” to “restoring a safe climate fast”.....................................................................................................................................7 Restoring a safe climate fast and avoiding amplified extreme weather events ...............................9 No longer a ‘carbon’ budget .................................................................................................................................... 9 Zero global net emissions......................................................................................................................................... 9 Drawdown of CO2.................................................................................................................................................. 11 Solar radiation management?................................................................................................................................. 12 The three technical strategies for restoring a safe climate...................................................................................... 14 A safe climate scenario..................................................................................................................14 A new mode of campaigning.........................................................................................................14 Conclusions ...................................................................................................................................15 Follow up.......................................................................................................................................15 Summary of the paper’s main points.............................................................................................15 Key terms.......................................................................................................................................16 Climate science information..........................................................................................................16 The science of global temperature ......................................................................................................................... 16 The history of the earth’s temperature ................................................................................................................... 18 Sea levels ............................................................................................................................................................... 21 References .....................................................................................................................................21 Introduction This paper offers a two-part argument that: (a) the restoration of a safe climate is still possible and as a consequence, most of the predicted catastrophic impacts of climate change can be avoided, but (b) this can only be achieved if we make very substantial changes to how we campaign on climate change. The paper will be used initially as background for face-to-face discussions and will be refined in the light of those discussions. When the paper is ‘good enough’ to stand alone it will be distributed widely. Where did we hope to be on climate action in 2013? Many people in the climate movement hoped that the world would adopt an effective action protocol at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 and that the US, under the leadership of Barak 2 Obama, would adopt an emissions trading system through the passage of the proposed Waxman-Markey legislation. As a result of these developments it was hoped that the world would at last pick up pace on cutting emissions - with the aim of achieving a 60% to 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, in order to have a 50:50 chance of halting warming at or under +2ºC1 with the final CO2 level in the atmosphere being no more than 450 parts per million (compared to the current level of 395 ppm2) Under this hoped-for scenario developed countries would cut emissions hard, but poorer countries would be able to take a few decades longer to adopt a low carbon economy before using up a ‘carbon budget’ of permissible greenhouse gas emissions. This dual-track approach was known as the ‘contraction and convergence’ strategy. But these hopes have not been realised. Where are we in fact with global warming now? Here is the reality that we are now living with: “+2ºC” is now “+1ºC” The IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001) contained an analysis of the threats posed by climate change – summarised in what has come to be called the “burning embers” diagram. While the analysis did not overtly recommend +2ºC (compared to the 1990 temperature3) as the upper limit on warming this was the conclusion that many scientists and others drew from the data. In 2009 this impact analysis was updated by Smith et al. – see the diagram below. It will come as no surprise to people who have kept an eye on climate science that a great deal of the new climate science information on actual and expected impacts was “worse than anyone had previously expected”. Impacts of climate change were being found to be more severe at lower temperatures, so impacts expected decades, often many decades, into the future were occurring now. When the new data were integrated into the new “burning embers” diagram it was found that the threshold of clearly dangerous climate change had shifted from +2ºC to +1ºC above the 1990 temperature.4 By 2012, the average world temperature was about half a degree above the 1990 level5 and half way to this new threshold. 1 This cap was adopted by the European Union in 1996 and reaffirmed in 2003, 2005 and 2007. It was adopted globally at the Copenhagen Conference in 2009 (with a caveat promoted by the alliance of vulnerable states that a new, lower cap [+1.5ºC] be investigated) – and a requirement to hold the temperature increase below +2ºC. (ie. not a 50:50 chance). (The 2009 Copenhagen Accord did not say that the base year for the temperature increases was however.) 2 See reference for Mauna Loa CO2, 2013 3 The temperature in 1990 was about +0.3ºC above the 1850 preindustrial temperature. 4 But the international negotiations still focused on a +2ºC threshold due to diplomatic inertia.) 5 Compared to the (1850) preindustrial reference, the earth has already warmed by +0.8ºC. 3 Revised ‘Burning Embers’ diagram (From Smith et al., 2009) Extreme weather events are already dangerous The last decade or so has seen, across the world, an epidemic of extreme weather events that has broken records for severity. For example the 1998 world wide coral bleaching, the European heatwave of 2003, the Southeast Asian bushfires of 2007, the 2009 heat wave and bushfires in southern Australia, the 2010 northern hemisphere events (heatwaves, Russian bushfires, flood in Pakistan and China) and the 2012 heatwave in the US.6 The food shortages created by the 2010 extreme weather events are credited with being a key catalyst for the uprisings known as the Arab Spring. These events suggest very strongly that the earth has now moved into the era of dangerous climate change. 6 See the Climate Nexus report: Climate Signals: Extreme Weather Guide. It sets out current scientific knowledge about the influence of climate change on current extreme weather events. 4 (From: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: http://www.unep.org/maweb/ ) (The data presented in this graphic covers a period prior to the ending of the long drought in Australia.) (From: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: http://www.unep.org/maweb/ ) For a long time climate scientists were very reluctant to say that any particular climate event was ‘caused by climate change’. The most that they were prepared to say was that extreme events were consistent with expectations for a climate changed world. More recently some respected climate scientists (eg. Kevin Trenberth, James Hansen) have begun to argue that all weather is now affected by climate change. That is, we don’t have a mix of many normal events and some climate change events. Instead, we have a naturally highly variable weather pattern (as is always the case for naturally chaotic weather systems) shifted in 5 the direction of higher temperatures
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