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The Human Imperative of Stabilizing Global Climate Change at 1.5°C O

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The Human Imperative of Stabilizing Global Climate Change at 1.5°C O RESEARCH ◥ ADVANCES: Multiple lines of evidence indi- REVIEW SUMMARY cate that the next 0.5°C above today (which will take GMST from 1.0°C to 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period) will involve greater risks CLIMATE CHANGE per unit temperature than those seen in the last 0.5°C increase. This principle of “accelerat- ing risk” is also likely to drive proportionally The human imperative of stabilizing and possibly exponentially higher risk levels in the transition from 1.5°C to 2.0°C above the global climate change at 1.5°C pre-industrial period. We argue that this is a ◥ consequence of impacts O. Hoegh-Guldberg*, D. Jacob, M. Taylor, T. Guillén Bolaños, M. Bindi, S. Brown, ON OUR WEBSITE accelerating as a func- I. A. Camilloni, A. Diedhiou, R. Djalante, K. Ebi, F. Engelbrecht, J. Guiot, Y. Hijioka, Read the full article tion of distance from the S. Mehrotra, C. W. Hope, A. J. Payne, H.-O. Pörtner, S. I. Seneviratne, A. Thomas, at http://dx.doi. optimal temperature for R. Warren, G. Zhou org/10.1126/ an organism or an eco- science.aaw6974 .................................................. system process. Coral reefs, for example, often appear BACKGROUND: The United Nations Frame- take ambitious action on mitigating climate change, healthy right up until the onset of mass coral work Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) while also developing adaptation options and bleaching and mortality, which can then de- Downloaded from was established in 1992 to pursue the “stabi- strategies as well as guaranteeing the means stroy a reef within a few months. This also lization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a of implementation (e.g., climate finance). The explains the observation of “tipping points” level that would prevent dangerous anthro- Agreement is aimed at “holding the increase where the condition of a group of organisms pogenic interferences with the climate system.” in the global average temperature to well below or an ecosystem can appear “healthy” right Since 1992, five major climate change assess- 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels and pursu- up to the point of collapse, suggesting caution ment cycles have been completed by the UN ing efforts to limit the temperature increase to in extrapolating from measures of ecosystem Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing condition to predict the future. Information http://science.sciencemag.org/ (IPCC). These reports identified rapidly grow- that this would significantly reduce the risks of this nature needs to be combined with an ing climate-related impacts and risks, including and impacts of climate change.” Many unanswered appreciation of organisms’ distance from their more intense storms, collapsing ecosystems, and questions regarding a 1.5°C target surround optimal temperature. record heatwaves, among many others. Once the feasibility, costs, and inherent risks to nat- Finally, we explore elements of the costs thought to be tolerable, increases in global mean ural and human systems. Consequently, coun- and benefits associated with acting in surface temperature (GMST) of 2.0°C or higher tries invited the IPCC to prepare a Special Report response to climate change, and come to the than the pre-industrial period look increasingly on “the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above preliminary conclusion that restraining unmanageable and hence dangerous to natural pre-industrial levels and related global green- average global temperature to 1.5°C above the and human systems. house gas emission pathways, in the context pre-industrial period would be much less The Paris Climate Agreement is the most re- of strengthening the global response to the the damage due to inaction on costly than on September 30, 2019 cent attempt to establish international coop- threat of climate change, sustainable devel- global climate change. eration over climate change. This agreement, opment, and efforts to eradicate poverty.” The ratified or acceded to by 185 countries, was de- Special Report was completed and approved by OUTLOOK: As an IPCC expert group, we were signed to bring nations together voluntarily to the 48th Session of the IPCC in October 2018. asked to assess the impact of recent climate change (1.0°C, 2017) and the likely impact over , WITH PERMISSION FROM IPCC A B the next 0.5° to 1.0°C of additional global warm- ing. At the beginning of this exercise, many of us were concerned that the task would be hindered by a lack of expert literature available for 1.5°C and 2.0°C warmer worlds. Although this was GLOBAL WARMING OF 1.5°C the case at the time of the Paris Agreement, it has not been our experience 4 years later. With C an accelerating amount of peer-reviewed sci- 2.0 entific literature since the IPCC Special Report 1.5 Global Warming of 1.5°C, it is very clear that there is an even more compelling case for deepening 1.0 VH commitment and actions for stabilizing GMST at 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period. VH ▪ H Global mean surface surface mean Global 0 to pre-industrial levels (°C) levels pre-industrial to temperature change relative relative change temperature Warm water The list of author affiliations is available in the full article online. corals *Corresponding author. Email: [email protected] Cite this article as O. Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science 365, Climate change and nonlinear responses. (A) Reef-building corals can bleach, losing eaaw6974 (2019). DOI: 10.1126/science.aaw6974 (B) dinoflagellate symbionts (~10 mm across) and dying, thus exhibiting (C) a nonlinear response to impacts/risks from climate change. H (high) and VH (very high) are the confidence – for transition from one impact/risk level to another: white, no climate change related impacts; TOMORROW’SEARTH yellow, some detectable climate change impacts/risks; red, severe and widespread impacts/ Read more articles online CREDITS: [(A) AND (B)] O. HOEGH-GULDBERG; (C)risks; THE IPCC SPECIAL REPORT purple, very high impacts/risks with significant irreversibility or persistence. at scim.ag/TomorrowsEarth Hoegh-Guldberg et al., Science 365, 1263 (2019) 20 September 2019 1of1 RESEARCH ◥ to 2018) relative to the pre-industrial period, REVIEW with the intensity and/or frequency of extremes projected to change further with another 0.5°C of warming (5). As GMST has increased, for ex- CLIMATE CHANGE ample, the average temperature of cold days and nights (i.e., the coldest 10%) has also increased overall, as has the average temperature of warm The human imperative of stabilizing days and nights (i.e., the warmest 10%) globally (5). These changes have also been accompanied by increases in the frequency and/or duration global climate change at 1.5°C of heatwaves for large parts of Europe, North America, and Australia. Increases in GMST have O. Hoegh-Guldberg1,2*, D. Jacob3, M. Taylor4, T. Guillén Bolaños3, M. Bindi5, 6,7 8 9 10,11 12 13 been accompanied by increases in the frequency, S. Brown , I. A. Camilloni , A. Diedhiou , R. Djalante , K. Ebi , F. Engelbrecht , intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation 14 15 16 17 18 19 J. Guiot , Y. Hijioka , S. Mehrotra , C. W. Hope , A. J. Payne , H.-O. Pörtner , in more regions than those with decreases, es- 20 21,22 23 24 S. I. Seneviratne , A. Thomas , R. Warren , G. Zhou pecially in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude and high-latitude areas (5, 6). There is also evi- Increased concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases have led to a global mean dence of increasing rainfall associated with re- surface temperature 1.0°C higher than during the pre-industrial period. We expand on the cent tropical cyclones (6, 7) and increasingly heavy recent IPCC Special Report on global warming of 1.5°C and review the additional risks precipitation during storms in the Central Sahel associated with higher levels of warming, each having major implications for multiple (8, 9). The total annual number of tropical cy- Downloaded from geographies, climates, and ecosystems. Limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2.0°C would clones has decreased, while the number of very be required to maintain substantial proportions of ecosystems and would have clear benefits intense cyclones has increased, for many areas for human health and economies. These conclusions are relevant for people everywhere, (5). There is less confidence regarding trends in particularly in low- and middle-income countries, where the escalation of climate-related the length of drought, although a significant in- risks may prevent the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. creasing trend has been detected in the Mediter- ranean region (particularly southern Europe, http://science.sciencemag.org/ limate change is one of the greatest chal- munities; reductions in ecosystem services as- North Africa, and the Near East) (10–12). lenges for humanity. Global mean surface sociated with biodiversity loss), suggests that the As on land, coastal and marine habitats have temperature (GMST) is increasing at the potential economic benefits arising from limiting also experienced an increased frequency, inten- C rate of 0.2° ± 0.1°C per decade, reaching warming to 1.5°C may be at least four or five sity, and duration of underwater heatwaves, with 1.0°C above the pre-industrial period (ref- times the size of the investments needed in the a factor of 3 increase in the number of marine erence period 1850–1900) in 2017 (1). GMST is energy system until 2050 (see supplementary heatwave days globally since 1980 (13). The dif- projected to reach 1.5°C above the pre-industrial materials) (3). ferential heating of the water column has also led period between 2030 and 2052, depending on Here, we explore the near-term, mostly un- to increased thermal stratification in some coast- the model and assumptions regarding projected monetized impacts projected for 1.5°C of global al and oceanic regions, which decreases ocean- changes to atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) warming, along with the associated risks and atmosphere gas exchange as well as the turnover levels and climate sensitivity (1).
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