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Land Use Change, Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Spatio-Temporal Variability Over West Africa

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Land Use Change, Vegetation Dynamics and Rainfall Spatio-Temporal Variability Over West Africa LAND USE CHANGE, VEGETATION DYNAMICS AND RAINFALL SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OVER WEST AFRICA BAMBA, Adama BSc (UAA, côte , MSc (UAA, côte (MET/11/7675) A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE SCHOOL OF POSTGRADUATE STUDIES, THE FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY, AKURE (FUTA) IN PARTNERSHIP WITH THE WEST AFRICAN SCIENCE SERVICE CENTRE ON CLIMATE CHANGE AND ADAPTED LAND USE (WASCAL), IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE AWARD OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY DEGREE IN METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE SCIENCE. DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATE SCIENCE FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY AKURE, NIGERIA MARCH, 2015 ABSTRACT The decadal variability of rainfall and vegetation over West Africa have been studied over the last three decades, 1981-1990, 1991-2000 and 2001-2010 denoted as 80s, 90s and 00s respectively. The Climate Research Unit (CRU) monthly precipitation and temperature data, the Global Prediction Climatology Project (GPCP) monthly precipitation data, daily rainfall data from two stations in and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), all covering the period 1981-2010 have been used in this study. The aim of the study is to ascertain how changes in the land surface state affect the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall over the West Africa region. The relationship between rainfall and vegetation indices over the region was determined . Also the decadal comparison between rainfall and NDVI over the region was based on the significant t-test and the Pearson . The impact of land use change (deforestation) on West African monsoon, particularly the rainfall of June-July- August-September (JJAS) was simulated using the regional climate model (RCM) RegCM version 4. The RegCM4 was coupled with the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) land surface state model and forced with ERAINT. The simulation covered three years from 2005 to 2007. But the study focused on JJAS of 2005 and 2006, two different years in terms of monsoon onset and sea surface temperature (SST) over the Gulf of Guinea (GG). 2005 was characterized by early monsoon onset and cold SST while 2006 had late monsoon onset and high SST over GG. The model performance was evaluated by comparing the model output with GPCP and CRU observation datasets. Results show that significant return to wetter conditions is observed between the decade 80s and decade 90s over West Africa and it was maintained during decade 00s except over central part of Benin and the western side of Nigeria where a decrease in annual rainfall magnitude was observed. ii During the same period, a re-greening of the Central Sahel and Sudano-Sahel regions was noted. From decade 90s to 00s, this re-greening belt was observed toward the South and the Coastal areas, mainly over the Guinea Coast, Sudano-Guinea and Western Sahel regions. A northward movement of vegetation increase was also observed. A linear relationship was observed between rainfall and NDVI in the savannah region. Linear relationship between rainfall and NDVI was not observed in other regions. This may suggest that the re-growth of vegetation in the savannah region may be linked to the availability of the rainfall. The vegetation re-greening which was observed over the Sahel region in 90s following the recovery of rainfall from the drought of the 80s was not sustained in the decade 00s due to a slight reduction in rainfall. The RegCM4 simulation results indicate that, the model was able to reproduce the early and late monsoon onsets over the Sahel in 2005 and 2006 respectively, when no changes were made to the vegetation cover. After changes were made to the vegetation cover, the RegCM4 simulation results show that the position of structures like the Intertropical Discontinuity (ITD), and the zones of ascending and descending motion over the Sahara desert were not affected much; however the changes in vegetation were observed to have delayed the monsoon onset over Sahel. The time lag between the end of monsoon in Guinea region and its onset in Sahel is more than one month (~45 days) in 2005 and around one month (30 days) in 2006. However, the time lag between the end of monsoon in Guinea region and its onset in Sahel is always less than a month in the simulation experiments without changes in vegetation cover. The results of the study have shown the impact of deforestation over the West African savannah zone on rainfall spatial and temporal variability and provided maps of rainfall and vegetation index variability that can guide decision making for policy makers to prevent further deforestation and soil degradation. iii RESUME Cette thèse étudie l'influence du changement d'état de surface de la végétation sur la variabilité spatio-temporelle des précipitations en Afrique de l'Ouest. , la variabilité décen végétation sont révisées au cours des trois dernières décennies 1981-1990, 1991-2000 et 2001-2010 notées respectivement 80s, 90s et 00s. Le jet de données utilisé est constitué des données de précipitation du Climate Research Unit (CRU), prévision mondial de climatologie projet (GPCP) et quelques données de station comme observation et ilisation de normalisé de végétation (NDVI) du groupe Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling Studies (GIMMS). impact de la déforestation sur la variabilité des précipitations dans la région est étudié en utilisant le modèle climatique régional RegCM version 4 International Centre for Theoretical Physics Le principe est d'anticiper le phénomène de la déforestation en attribuant à la zone de transition située entre la région guinéenne et la région soudanaise (9 W-15 E et 6 N-10 N) des herbes courtes. Cette zone qui est constituée par la savane arborée et parsemée de hautes herbes. Le modèle a été évaluée à l'aide GPCP, CRU ensembles de données d'observation. La méthodologie basée sur l'utilisation du test de significativité statistique entre les différentes décennies et la corrélation de Pearson entre les précipitations et NDVI. En ce qui concerne, l'expérience de la déforestation, le modèle a été couplé avec le model Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfert (BATS) modèle d'état de surface et forcé avec ERAINT. La simulation (2005-2006-2007), mais l'accent a été particulière mise sur la période JJAS de 2006 et 2007 correspondant à la saison des pluies dans la région sahélienne. Les principaux résultats sont indiqués comme suit: De 80 décennie à 90s de la décennie, un important retour à des conditions plus humides est observée sur l'Afrique de l'Ouest et confirmé lors de la 00s iv décennie, sauf sur le Bénin centrale et tout le côté ouest du Nigeria où il ya une diminution annuelle précipitations. Et au cours de la même période, un reverdissement des régions du Sahel Central et soudano-sahéliens est noté. De la décennie 90 à 00, cette ceinture de reverdissement est observée vers le les régions côtières du Sud et, principalement sur les régions de la côte Guinéenne, soudano-guinéennes et du Sahel occidental. Le reverdissement de la végétation est observé dans le sens Sud-Nord. Néanmoins, dans la décennie 90s les changements positifs étaient en dessous de la latitude 10 N et pendant la décennie 00s il a atteint la latitude 12 N plus haut dans les régions comme une frontière Mali, la Guinée et le Sénégal. Une relation linéaire qui se manifeste par une forte corrélation a été trouvée entre les précipitations principalement dans les régions de savane. La déforestation est un processus en cours sur la région Afrique de l'Ouest en dépit de son effet négatif sur l'environnement et le climat régional. Pour l'aspect simulation, le modèle a été capable de reproduire la mousson précoce et tardive sur le Sahel respectivement en 2005 et 2006 avant le changement apporte au couvert végétal. Après les changements de la couverture végétale, il est constaté que la position des différentes structures telles que le FIT, les zones de convection et des zones de subsidence ne sont pas affectés beaucoup; Cependant, les changements ont eu un impact sur la mousson au le Sahel. En effet, il semble retarder l'apparition de la mousson au le Sahel. La entre la fin de la mousson dans la région guinéenne et son apparition au Sahel est plus d'un mois en 2005 et environ un mois en 2006, alors que cette période est inferieure moins à mois avant la déforestation. Par conséquent, elle a réduit les précipitations de JJAS à respectivement 5% et 3% en 2005 et 2006. L'analyse décennale des observations des précipitations et de la végétation ainsi que la simulation ont montré que le reverdissement de la végétation dans la région diffère dans le temps zone à ; cependant, la déforestation induirait une baisse des précipitations dans la région. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This Ph.D programme is fully supported by the German Ministry of education and Research (BMBF) through the West African Science Service Centre on Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL). I am therefore grateful to WASCAL for granting me the financial support for the study and research visit to the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) in Italy and to the Laboratoire d'Etude des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement (LTHE) in France and my participation in conference to present the results of the study. I sincerely thank the executive Director and the staff of WASCAL Head office, Accra, Ghana and the Director, Prof. J.A. Omotosho and staff of WASCAL GRP-WACS, FUTA, Nigeria for their strong support and encouragement throughout the period of the study. I am also grateful to Prof. K.O. Ogunjobi, the Head, and the Staff of the Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, FUTA, Nigeria, for their assistance and cooperation. I am deeply thankful to my supervisor Prof.
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