SALARY ARBITRATION BETWEEN

LARS ELLER

AND

THE MONTREAL CANADIENS

BRIEF FOR LARS ELLER

TEAM 17

Table of Contents I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW ...... 3 A. Offensive Production and Player Development ...... 3 B. Dependable Centre ...... 4 C. Strong Playoff Performer ...... 5 II. VALID COMPARABLE PLAYERS ...... 6 A. Brandon Sutter ...... 7 B. Patrik Berglund ...... 9 III. CONCLUSION ...... 10

2 I. INTRODUCTION AND OVERVIEW

Pursuant to section 12.9 of the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement, this brief will assess the market value of Montreal Canadiens forward Lars Eller.1 Throughout his four seasons with the club, he has continued to emerge as a talented young hockey player.

He has proven to be a truly dependable centre as well as a strong playoff performer.

Moreover, his status vis-à-vis comparable players leave him well deserving of a large raise above his 2013-14 base salary of $1.5 million; over and above the $3.5 million mid- point value.2 Indeed, a reasonable award for a player of his calibre would be $3.6 million.

A. Offensive Production and Player Development

Over the course of his tenure with the Montreal Canadiens, Eller has developed immensely as an offensive contributor. In 279 games with the team, he has amassed 43 goals, 58 assists and 101 points, averaging 0.36 points per game.3 While these numbers indicate steady offensive production, it is also important to break them down to assess his year-over-year performance. His point totals grew in each of his first three seasons from

17 in 2010-2011, to 28 in 2011-2012 and then to 30 in 2012-2013, averaging 0.22, 0.37 and 0.65 points per game (PPG) respectively.4 Eller’s offensive production declined in the 2013-2014 season from the career highs achieved in assists and points in the previous year to numbers statistically similar to those amassed in the 2011-2012 season. He netted

12 goals and added 14 assists for 26 points over 77 games, averaging 0.34 PPG.5

Although this decrease in production was disappointing, it is not a cause for concern.

Eller continues to generate offensive opportunities, taking a career high 137 shots in

1 NHL CBA. 2 http://www.capgeek.com/player/998 3 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189 4 Ibid. 5 Ibid.

3 2013-2014.6 By getting shots on net, Eller not only creates scoring chances for himself but also increases the likelihood that his teammates will be able to capitalize on tip-ins and rebounds. This demonstrates that Eller continues to hold significant offensive up side and, thus, value for the team.

B. Dependable Centre

Mr. Eller’s value is also demonstrated by his strong positional play. As a centre- man, faceoffs are a key aspect of his role and help to illuminate his true value to the team.

This is an area where Mr. Eller has not only improved, but also one where he has emerged as a team leader. In the most recent season, Eller recorded a faceoff winning percentage of 53.2% over 979 total faceoffs, ranking him first among Montreal’s top 4 centres.7 This marked the first year during which he led the category, however, his skills as a centre-man have been trending upwards in each of his four seasons with the

Canadiens. Indeed, his faceoff percentage has improved by an average of 3.57% per season over the course of his four years with the club.8 This steady improvement from a success rate of 42.5% (out of 431) in the faceoff circle in 2010-2011 to last season’s career high of 53.2% demonstrates why Eller is so valuable to the team.9 Thus, despite slightly disappointing offensive numbers in the 2013-2014 season, Eller continued to improve in one of the most important statistics relevant to NHL centre-men.

However, Eller’s value as a dependable centre-man extends beyond his prowess in the faceoff circle. Indeed two additional stats merit further consideration, his time-on- ice (TOI) and his total games played. As with his faceoff percentage, his total time-on-ice

6 Ibid. 7http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20132014&gameType=2&team=MTL&position=C&cou ntry=&status=&viewName=faceOffPercentageAll 8 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189&view=splits 9 Ibid.

4 as well as his average TOI per game has trended upwards (although experiencing a slight decline in the lockout-shortened 2012-2013 campaign). His minutes have increased from a total of 857:32 minutes and average of 11:08 minutes per game in 2010-2011 to career highs of 1229:02 and 15:57, respectively, in 2013-2014.10 This increase has moved him from sixth among centres in minutes per game in his first season with the club to third in the most recent season. By increasing his minutes, the Canadiens organization has demonstrated its confidence in Eller and implicitly acknowledged his increasing value as a centre-man to the franchise.

A final statistic that must be considered in assessing Eller’s value as a dependable centre-man is his number of games played. Over the course of four seasons with the franchise, Mr. Eller missed just 15 of 294 games.11 This demonstrates a very high degree of durability given the length of the NHL season and the physicality of the game.

Moreover, the fact that he is not injury prone only adds to his value. If he were forced to miss many games due to injury or lack of fitness, the club would have to replace him with a player who likely could not contribute as much, or in the same way to team success.

Thus, his value over any potential replacement demonstrates just how much of an asset

Eller’s dependability and durability as a centre-man is to the Canadiens franchise.

C. Strong Playoff Performer

Eller’s individual growth and his role as a dependable and durable centre-man illustrate his value to the Montreal Canadiens. However, it is his playoff performance that truly demonstrates his worth. Since joining the organization, the Canadiens have missed

10 Ibid. 11 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189

5 the playoffs only once.12 As a result of this regular season success, Eller has had the chance to play in 25 playoff games for the team, contributing 5 goals and 10 assists for 15 points in those games.13 In the 2013-2014 season, the Habs made it all the way to the

Eastern Conference Finals, with Eller playing a key role in this success. He led all

Montreal forwards in assists, points and plus minus, netting 5 goals and adding 8 assists for 13 points, while achieving a +6 rating and scoring 1 game winning .14 This type of performance, when the entire season is on the line, truly demonstrates the type of player that Lars Eller is. He overcame a disappointing regular season to contribute in a very meaningful way and it is difficult to imagine the Canadiens advancing as far as they did without Eller’s performance. This ability to perform in the playoffs is a talent that even some of the best players in the league lack. Given the importance of playoff success to an NHL organization, it is clear that Eller adds immense value to the franchise.

II. VALID COMPARABLE PLAYERS

By examining his statistical achievements, contributions to team success and playoff performance it is clear that a salary of $3.5 million would be an unfair outcome for Mr. Eller. However, when assessed together with the market value of comparable players it becomes even clearer that Eller’s performance merits a salary over and above the $3.5 million midpoint salary and likely one in the range of $3.6 million. The contracts recently signed by centre Brandon Sutter and St. Louis Blues centre

Patrik Berglund indicate as much.

12 http://www.nhl.com/ice/standings.htm?season=20132014&type=DIV 13 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189 14http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?season=20132014&gameType=3&team=MTL&position=F&cou ntry=&status=&viewName=summary

6 A. Brandon Sutter

In August 2014, Mr. Sutter signed a two-year contract worth an average of $3.3 million a season with the Pittsburgh Penguins.15 Mr. Sutter and Mr. Eller are comparable players as they are the same age (they are both 25 years old) and they were both drafted in the first round of the 2007 NHL Entry Draft.16 Although Mr. Sutter broke into the league two seasons before Mr. Eller, he has failed to make similar strides in individual player development. The two have almost identical points per game averages with Sutter averaging 0.365PPG to Eller’s 0.36PPH, however, whereas Mr. Eller’s offensive numbers are trending upwards, Mr. Sutter’s are heading in the opposite direction. In fact,

Mr. Sutter reached his career high in both total points (40) and points per game

(0.55PPG) in the 2009-2010 season, but has failed to replicate those numbers since, despite missing only one game in the last four seasons. On these offensive statistics alone, it is clear that Mr. Eller offers his team greater potential upside.

Mr. Sutter’s positional play is another area where he lags behind Mr. Eller. While the latter player’s success in the faceoff circle has grown as he has gained more NHL experience, the former player lacks a similar positive trend line. Sutter’s faceoff percentage has fluctuated between 44.3% and 50.5% over the last five seasons, including a sharp drop from 49.0% in 2009-2010 to 44.3% in 2010-2011.17 Moreover, he has failed to match his career high of 50.5%, which he achieved in 2011-2012 and falls short of the

53.2% achieved by Eller in the 2013-2014 campaign.18 Although Mr. Sutter has averaged

15 http://www.capgeek.com/player/536 16 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189&docid=TeamPlayerBio:41071#&navid=nhl-search; http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474091&docid=TeamPlayerBio:43814#&navid=nhl-search

17 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474091 18 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474091; http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189

7 more minutes per game over the course of his career than Mr. Eller, the 2013-2014 season marked the first in which Eller played more than Sutter, averaging 15:57 per game to Sutter’s 15:46.19 This despite the fact that Sutter’s team, Pittsburgh was missing one of its top 2 centres, Evgeni Malkin for nearly one quarter of the season. Indeed, over the last two seasons Sutter’s average ice time has decreased by over a minute and a half per game, despite the Penguins’ top two centres, Malkin and Sidney Crosby, missing a combined 51 games over that span.20 This decline in average ice-time over the past two seasons illustrates a lack of confidence in Sutter on the part of Penguins management.

This stems from the fact that despite posting similar offensive numbers as Eller over the course of his careers, he simply lacks the dependability of the Canadiens forward.

A final crucial comparison that must be made between Sutter and Eller is in terms of their playoff performance. While Eller recovered from a disappointing 2013-2014 regular season to explode in the post-season, Sutter has yet to demonstrate his potential to excel in the high-pressure environment of the NHL playoffs. In 28 career playoff games, he has amassed only 10 points and has never finished better than fifth in scoring among team forwards. By comparison, Eller posted 13 points in the 17 games of the 2013-2014 playoffs alone. Thus, Eller’s comparative performance in the most important part of the season helps to further illustrate why he merits a significantly higher salary than Sutter’s

$3.3 million. In summary, while Sutter’s offensive production is stagnant, his positional play inconsistent and his playoff performance unremarkable, Eller’s production is trending upwards, his positional play dependable and his playoff performance impressive.

19http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLCACALL&viewName=timeOnIce&sort=ti meOnIce&pg=3; http://www.nhl.com/ice/playerstats.htm?fetchKey=20142ALLCACALL&viewName=timeOnIce&sort=tim eOnIce&pg=2 20

8 B. Patrik Berglund

Patrik Berglund signed a 3-year, $11.1 million contract with the St. Louis Blues in

June 2014.21 He and Eller are comparable because of their similar age (Eller is 25 and

Berglund is 26) and draft status (Eller was drafted in the 1st round in 2007, while

Berglund was drafted in the 1st round in 2006).22 Although Berglund has put up greater offensive numbers over the course of his career, averaging 0.50 PPG, his production has been highly unpredictable, fluctuating substantially from one year to the next.23 Thus,

Berglund lacks the consistent improvement in his offensive statistics that Eller has, for the most part, displayed throughout his career. Moreover, while Eller is just one year removed from his career high of 0.65 PPG achieved in the 2012-2013 campaign,

Berglund has failed to replicate his career high of 0.64 PPG, posted in 2010-2011, in the three seasons that followed.24 Thus, while Berglund’s trend lines suggest his production is declining, Eller’s seems to be on the rise.

When comparing the two players’ respective values as positional players it is clear the Eller comes out on top. Eller’s faceoff percentage has increased consistently over his four seasons, rising to 53.2% in this last campaign from a previous high of

49.3% in the 2012-2013 season.25 By contrast Berglund recorded faceoff percentages of just 47.6% in 2013-2014 and 46.3% in 2012-2013, both of which were down from his career high of 48.5%, recorded in 2011-2012.26 The fact that Berglund’s best season in

21 http://www.capgeek.com/player/964 22 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473534; http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189&docid=TeamPlayerBio:41071#&navid=nhl-search 23 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473534&docid=TeamPlayerBio:13984#&navid=nhl-search 24 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473534; http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189&docid=TeamPlayerBio:41071#&navid=nhl-search 25 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189&view=splits&season=20132014&gameType=2 26 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473534&view=splits

9 the faceoff circle came two full seasons ago and that his faceoff percentage in that year could not match Eller’s in either of the last two seasons demonstrates the latter player’s greater value as a centre-man.

A final area for comparison is with regards to Berglund and Eller’s respective playoff performances. As noted above, in 2013-2014 Eller led all Montreal forwards in assists and points as the team advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. In all, he has amassed 15 points over 25 games for a career post-season average of 0.6 PPG along with a career playoff plus/minus rating of plus 7.27 By contrast, while Berglund he has tallied only 9 points in 23 games, while accumulating a minus-8 rating.28 Berglund’s inability to rise to the occasion in the most crucial stages of the NHL season illustrates an important difference between him and Eller. As playoff performance is the truest measure of a team’s success in any given season, Berglund’s inability to contribute in a meaningful way demonstrates that he simply is not as dependable a player as Lars Eller is. In summary, Eller has proven himself to be more capable of offensive development, a more dependable centre-man and a more clutch playoff performer. Thus, at the very least it is clear that Eller’s true market value is very similar to Berglund’s.

III. CONCLUSION

Mr. Eller’s growth as a strong offensive contributor, his dependability as a centre- man and his playoff performance demonstrate his immense value to the Montreal

Canadiens. Moreover, when comparing Mr. Eller to his peers, it becomes clear he deserves an award above the $3.5 million mid-point, and that $3.6 million would be an appropriate award.

27 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8474189&view=stats 28 http://www.nhl.com/ice/player.htm?id=8473534

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