The 2019 Midterm Elections

A discussion series by the Ateneo de University Department of Political Science in collaboration with BusinessWorld

This booklet contains a series of articles written by the faculty members of the Ateneo de Manila University Department of Political Science in relation to the 2019 midterm elections. These articles are accessible online through BusinessWorld Online.

The 2019 Midterm Elections discussion series

3 Why should we care about “midterm” elections?

5 What’s at stake for us in the 2019 midterm elections?

9 Why should there be election debates

11 Elections do not make democracy

13 The battle for the 12 Senate seats!

16 What is your opinion of your President?

18 Why we (don’t) vote

20 Why the opposition lost in the 2019 Midterm (Senatorial) Elections

23 Vote-Shaming in the Midterm Elections

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Why should we care about "midterm" elections?

By Arjan P. Aguirre 12 February 2018 - https://www.bworldonline.com/care-midterm-elections/

In most democracies these days, discussions of government. In other societies (such as in on electoral politics are surprisingly limited to parliamentary democracies like UK, Canada, general elections. Most media analysts and India, etc.), it is an election usually held ahead election “experts” really find happiness and of a scheduled election. In this regard, it is used satisfaction in describing the fanfare and as a way to constitute a parliament following its spectacle of electing presidents and creation of dissolution. a powerful Cabinet in modern-day parliaments. They are usually silent about These days, commentators and pundits tend to midterm elections that are also taking place frame midterm election as a mere extension of and how they help define the future of the political space of the sitting government — governments and societies across the world. essentially sutured or perhaps even subsumed to those issues and controversies that define an At present, the attention and interest toward existing political regime. This can be explained midterm elections have always been negligible, if by the nature of the election itself which can be not nonexistent. The interest toward midterm conceptually expressed into two elements: 1.) elections regularly appears months and even particular — a part of the government is weeks before election day. This interest usually elected; 2.) intermediate — election held in- culminates on election day, where people between general elections. are forced to monitor and make sense of the outcome of the election. Another way of explaining this problem is the fact that many of these commentators and Why should we be concerned about pundits are not really familiar of what it really midterm election? What is its real function? means, especially for contemporary democracies. I think, this is where the blame Midterm election is commonly understood as an should be given to our contemporary scholars election cycle where people elect members of and academics in the field of political science the government exactly halfway of the term of for keeping silent about the real purpose of the other set of elected officials. It is an election midterm elections in democratic societies. that punctuates the term of the sitting head

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Midterm elections are known to have the However, compared to US, the Philippine case following functions to contemporary societies. is certainly different. President Rodrigo One, they shape the political contours and Duterte’s coalition led by his political party, climate leading to the next general election. Partido Demokratiko ng Pilipinas (PDP), enjoys The winning coalition or party in a midterm high popularity among the voters. The election usually gets the momentum by holding “Duterte bloc” controls all political spaces as enough key positions in the government well as governmental institutions in the needed to mobilize votes especially on election today. Opposing groups and day. Also, they act as referendum for the sitting personalities, unfortunately, are incapable of government. Winning or losing the midterm mounting an alternative to the Duterte rule. elections is reflection of how well or bad the administration is performing. Lastly, they Given this situation, there is this fourth purpose are also seen as an opportunity for emerging of midterm elections, exclusively applicable to political actors to change the political narrative flawed democratic societies like the Philippines by advancing his/her political issue and — a way to contest a highly powerful bloc. redirecting the attention of the general public Democratic forces should explore using away from a future lame-duck president (or midterm elections as a way to engage and his/her party in a parliamentary government). challenge the monolithic rule of the sitting Contrary to the analyses of those “political government by participating in all aspects of an analysts” and “election experts,” these points electoral cycle (pre-election, election, and post- are fully supported by extant studies on election). By this sanctioned political opening, midterm elections (See the works of Prof. political institutions will be forced to allow James Campbell, Prof. Robert Erikson, Prof. fragmented groups to converge and coalesce on Alan Abramowitz, among others.) their common issues.

This year, the US will elect all members of the Political strategists, campaign handlers, and House of Representatives (435 representatives), most importantly, social movement activists one-third of the members of the Senate (33 should be aware of this potential of midterm senators) and majority of the Governors (36 elections to change the status quo. (Remember states and 3 territories) in the 50 states and the 2007 midterm elections under Arroyo’s 5 territories that comprise the United States of regime?) They should think of ways to be America. The three functions of midterm inclusive of other political groups and be clear elections will be useful in understanding the in contrasting themselves with the sitting November 2018 elections. President Donald government. Most importantly, they should Trump and his Republican Party will certainly try make sure that they are the better choice than to bounce back to its losses (e.g. Obamacare, Tax the “fence-sitters” (or those who refused to cuts, among others) and will fight head-on in make a clear stand on issues) and be a securing more seats in the Senate (where complete counterforce to the ruling coalition. 24 Republicans have already announced their retirement from politics), House, and State *** governorships. But it is going to be an uphill battle, given that the Democratic party is also Arjan P. Aguirre is an Instructor at the Department expected to deliver votes on election day. of Political Science, School of Social Sciences of the Ateneo de Manila University. He handles In 2019, the Philippines will elect all members courses on Politics and Governance, History of of the House of Representatives, one-half of Political Theory, Contemporary Political Theories, all members of the Senate (12 senators) and and Electoral Reforms in the Philippines. all local government officials (except those at the level).

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What's at stake for us in the 2019 midterm elections?

By Hansley A. Juliano 07 March 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/whats-at-stake-for-us-in-the-2019-midterm-elections/

In most democratic societies, midterm elections it.) To be sure, commentators and partisans of are seen not only as a referendum on the the administration might point to the passage performance of a sitting government/political of legislation by non-administration solons as party. It may also determine to what extent can proof of bipartisanship. However, we could also the current administration move forward equally make the case that such happened in unencumbered with its agenda — or whether it spite of, and not because of, the will need to begin building bipartisan administration’s agenda. confidence in order to govern with its symbolic authority intact. Furthermore, its consistent hounding of opposition voices plus its persistent disregard Bipartisanship, sadly, has never been a strong of the rule of law and international standards of suit of the administration of . human rights do not inspire confidence. These (Or at least, it is clearly confident in its hurt its pretensions to legitimate democratic presumed mandate to not even bother with governance — despite persistent spinning

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by Malacañang’s communication offices. But the way partisans of (not Coverage of commentary by other political necessarily the candidates themselves) have analysts in the Philippines already suggest that tried to sell themselves have not properly the laggardness/backsliding of many of our capitalized on the regime slate’s weaknesses. political institutions are already hurting the So far, they have simply been going about chances of the Philippines in pursuing genuine brandishing the CVs of their bets, without development — despite confident economic a united, clear platform of legislation and figures and projections. governance.

The 2019 midterm elections should be framed not They are yet to demonstrate that they intend only as the Duterte administration’s affirmation of to be a solid bloc that can fiscalize against the its mandate to its (presumed) 16.6 million voters overreaching actions of the administration. last 2016. It should already have been utilized as a There is still no clear indication (save the rallying cry for opposition forces (most of whom individual promises of the candidates claim to genuinely respect democratic themselves) that they intend to push for sector- institutions) to appeal to the other, projected 47 relevant legislation — and that they will million potential voters (out of the close to 63 mobilize together inside the Senate to do such. million registered voters announced by the Furthermore, the campaigners of the team Commission on Elections). seem to have forgotten that much of the misgivings and resentments of the Filipino Unfortunately, it seems the rhetoric of the public against the Aquino administration’s senatorial campaign (at least looking at the governance pitfalls will continue to hound administration-backed them, whether they want to or not. and the opposition Otso Diretso slate) is still centered on personalistic “credentials-shaming” If any, the discourse of those seeking to support discourse. At face value, this is not entirely the opposition slate — motivated as they are by without basis. After all, the job of national-level certain “moralistic”/“patronizing” rhetoric, legislation does require a willingness to engage in might hurt them even more. Works published midnight-oil study, deskwork and field by the Ateneo de Manila University (such as consultation. However, to presume that Frederic Schaffer’s The Hidden Costs of Clean educational and professional attainment is the Election Reform and Wataru Kusaka’s Moral appropriate and sole basis for electing lawmakers Politics in the Philippines) demonstrate how would be to ignore (if not violate) the entire campaigning that “shames” the voting public is democratic spirit of the 1987 Constitution. more often than not going to further alienate them from the advocacy/issue/personality being Our senators are not only supposed to be “the campaigned for. best and brightest” by academic and professional reckoning. They are supposed to How, then, should our candidates approach our be the ones with proven reputation and public kababayans? If experience and recorded research standing to be working on behalf of the is any indication, the demands of the Filipino national good — not merely “national patrons” public vis-à-vis their prospective leaders and expected to bring home any bacon to their lawmakers don’t change. To quote the Institute provincial hometowns or allied areas. Looking of Philippine Culture (IPC)’s 2004 study “The Vote at the names on the Hugpong slate and the of the Poor,” “they value educational ones endorsed by President Duterte, we are qualifications, but they were also suspicious regaled by names of those with multiple about those with superior education. They said allegations and proven instances of corruption experience and good intentions more than and plunder. Criticisms of the cheap gimmicks compensate for a lack of college education.” At of the slate (as well as the persistent evasion of the same time, our countrymen might still be regarding her degrees) are at beholden to “idealistic notions of leadership, least understandable. valuing qualities such as piety, helpfulness,

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sincerity, and responsibility.”

Is it a matter, therefore, of merely “choosing the ‘right’ candidate,” whatever our personal biases of “being right” means? This should not be the case. Legislative representation requires choosing the candidates that represent our issues best, which is almost always different from the kind of “righteousness” candidates market themselves to us.

In my personal experience (both as a scholar and as a participant in advocacy groups), the last thing any campaign wants would be for its good intentions to be questioned, especially if it overlooked some key considerations and frustrations of its target audience. One can only wish that those who entered the Senate race — more so those claiming to restore some semblance of democratic value to our government institutions — have not, once again, ignored the fears that brought us here in the first place (or worse, fomented them in the first place).

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Hansley A. Juliano serves as Lecturer to the Department of Political Science, School of Social Sciences, Ateneo de Manila University. He is also engaged in research and advocacy for various sectoral issues (such as labor rights and agrarian reform).

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Why should there

be election debates?

By Arjan P. Aguirre 18 March 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/why-should-there-be-election-debates/

To many people, ‘election debates,’ is a means radio, election debates have become one of the to inform voters of how the issues of the day are sought-after moments in a campaign period. framed and discussed by candidates. The exchange of ideas that happens between What is an election debate? What is its purpose? opposing candidates is supposed to reveal Why should we care about it? information that voters need especially in knowing and evaluating candidates — what they Election debate, first and foremost, is stand for, what their plans are, among Pothers. commonly understood as one of the campaign Equipped with this knowledge, voters are said events that allows candidates (and even to be more capable of making informed decision parties) to engage their rivals, on various of who to vote for or not. controversial issues that may likely affect their policy proposals, legislative agenda, Broadcast debates, are assumed to amplify this platforms, among others. It essentially comes function by allowing people to hear or see the from the old practice in Ancient Greece where actual discussions between candidates on various people profusely talk about opposing views on pressing issues. For more than four decades, the a particular topic in their city-states. Later on, use of communication technologies, in particular, Roman Senators, medieval scholars, and television, in election debates, has been an modern politicians appropriated this practice effective means of disseminating information. to shape and determine the legislative With more and more people who are tuned in agenda, political frameworks, among others. their television and

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Debates usually entail three things: the The view that election debates are a neutral systematic way of arriving at a claim or logic, art ground where real exchange of ideas really of public speaking or oratory, and the creative takes places is erroneous and misplaced. First of use of words or rhetoric. In election debates, all, they are performative displays that can be appearance or the projected image of a person predetermined and rehearsed. The debaters adds new dimension to the debate by giving will definitely say what they think the people emphasis to image, gestures and body language would want to hear from them. Media people vis-à-vis the claims in the debate. can also make use of this event as a way to favor their preferred candidate or vilify their Its purpose is two-fold: first, it gives the unwanted candidate. candidates the opportunity to have a stage to introduce themselves to the public, to know Second, this is a candidate-centered event that their opponents, vilify a fiercest rival, etc.; tends to limit the discussion to issues, framings, second, it allows voters to examine the interpretations that are alien to most people. candidates or parties by observing how they The discussion between the candidates and the behave, their platform, programs, etc. Election media actor, far from educating the people, debate is major part of the campaign where tends to impose their views or understanding to candidates and parties are forced to learn also the people. about their opponents. Voters, on the other hand, are given a chance to have a closer look at Third, as a campaign event, campaigners tend the candidates and their parties apart from the to reduce this as a mere electoral fanfare typical campaign ads, jingles, posters, etc. where candidates are forced to simply comply to this imperative. In this situation, debaters or The advent of new communication technologies, even media actors are not prepared for the such as radios, television, brought a new debate or completely not aware of the things dimension in the election debate because of the to be debated upon. entry of media as the “moderator” of this political event. Since the time of the first televised Voters should really care about election debates election debate (between Kennedy and Nixon in because there is something wrong with how we 1960), the media has become the constant practice this age-old tradition in politics. “gatekeeper” of issues, framings, discourses, Election debates, just like any debate, always interpretations, among others, need an audience for feedback or participation of an election debate. This phenomenon has from the people — to applaud or approve/ created a new reality called “mediated politics.” to reject or rebuke a claim. It should become Mediated politics happens when the perception a dialogue between the voters, candidates and understanding of the people are heavily and the media where we can also inform the influenced by the media (broadcast or printed). candidates and media about our issues and sentiments. Most of the scholars today (from Political Communication such as William Benoit, *** Stephen Coleman, etc. and Political Science like Alan Abramowitz, Andre Blais, etc.) agree that Arjan P. Aguirre is an Instructor at the Department the effects of mediated politics in an electoral of Political Science, School of Social Sciences practice such as election debates are mixed, of the Ateneo de Manila University. He handles complex and multifaceted. The information that courses on Politics and Governance, History of come from these broadcasted election debates, Political Theory, Contemporary Political Theories, according to them, do not automatically lead to Electoral Reforms in the Philippines, and, Social an informed voting (other factors include Movements and Civil Society. He also works confidence, disposition, etc.). as Consultant for Legal Network for Truthful Elections (LENTE) and Simbahang Lingkod ng Bayan (SLB).

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Elections do not make democracy

By Anne Lan K. Candelaria, Ph.D. 23 April 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/elections-do-not-make-democracy/

Three weeks from now, Filipinos will be casting element is having free and fair elections. The their votes for the country’s midterm elections. second one is the ability to initiate and According to the Commission on Elections, sustain genuine civic participation. there are around 60 million registered voters for the upcoming elections, 2.5 million of whom are FREE AND FAIR ELECTIONS new voters. We also have a relatively high voter turnout — 84% in 2016, considering that voting One key element in a democracy is a society’s is not compulsory unlike in other countries such ability to conduct elections that are free and fair. as Australia, Brazil, and Singapore. Free and fair elections encompass not only the right to vote, but that the exercise of such right is While elections are an important political free from fear or coercion. Moreover, choice must activity in a democratic society, its presence be meaningful — which implies that there should does not make democracy. Democracy is both a be genuine competition among candidates. process and a product, one that requires the Voters should be given an array of options that synchronization of many vital pieces, two of reflect fundamental differences between values, which I shall briefly discuss. The first vital belief systems, assumptions,

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and ideological core, rather than differences It is unsettling to note that the wave of based on family names and bloodlines. Hence, it democratization triggered by the end of the is unreasonable, unthinkable even, for one Cold War in the 70s has rolled back in just person to switch from one party to another 30 years by the early 2000s. This inability to because, after all, party membership is like skin sustain democracy is attributed to the fragility of and not a shirt. We must therefore work institutions — institutions that were rapidly towards the establishment of real political erected but are not capable of addressing deep- parties — one that is organized along common seated economic and social struggles and views, policies and programs, with the goal of inequalities. Poor civic education exacerbated promoting collective good and interests rather further the fissures and contributed to the than their own. deterioration of our democratic institutions.

GENUINE CIVIC PARTICIPATION May 13 is not the time for grand illusions. The upcoming elections is critical because whoever When freedom of expression is under attack, it wins will be our intermediary in engaging the is difficult to initiate, much less sustain, public pending agenda for the remaining term of the discourse. Assault on press freedom and current government such as federalism and encroachment on the rights of speech of constitutional change, drug control policy, and ordinary citizens, fear of online surveillance in the pivot to China to name a few. social media and other online platforms are alarmingly on the rise globally. These realities In three weeks’ time, we must put in mind that tend to impinge rather than broaden civil the ultimate goal of our exercise to vote is to discourse. In fact, Freedom in the World make sure that those who we put in power are reported in 2018 that global freedom is those who can protect and respect public continuously declining and that democracy is in discourse spaces, deepen democratic retreat. For democracy to thrive, it requires not institutions, and defend core democratic ideals. only adherence to its rules but also a deep We should stop electing politicians. Instead, we understanding and commitment to its processes should choose those who understand that, and institutions. This includes maintaining and once elected, their role is to facilitate the protecting a space where diversity of views can building and consolidation of a stable, inclusive, be expressed and addressed in a critical and and free Philippine state and society. respectful manner. Habermas calls this “public sphere” — a place where citizens come together And that this project is not theirs, but ours. for the purpose of using reason to further critical knowledge that leads to political change. For *** this kind of democratic culture to take root, however, civic education must be strengthened Anne Lan K. Candelaria, PhD, is currently the and should begin in our elementary schools. Associate Dean for Graduate Programs of the One cannot engage critically if our Ateneo de Manila University. She is also a faculty understanding of politics and the basic political member of the Department of Political Science in rules such as our Constitution is poor. the same university and a United Board for Christian Higher Education in Asia Fellow for THE IMPORTANCE OF MAY 13 2018-2019. Anne’s teaching, research, policy engagements and consultancy work focused on Elections do not guarantee a certainty of education governance, public policy, outcomes. But if done correctly, it gives citizens decentralization, and citizenship education. Her some handle on the outcomes based on rules advocacy is to make education a more meaningful that are not only understood but collectively experience for the Filipino learners through constructed as well. Democracy cannot thrive on democratic governance of schools and a bottom- its own. It needs conscious and constant up construction of curricula. defending by the people, for the people.

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The battle for the 12 Senate seats!

By Benjamin G. Barreto 06 May 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/the-battle-for-the-12-senate-seats/

Come 13 May 2019, 61,843,750 or 57.4% of the Of total voters, 1,822,173 or roughly 2.9% are total 107,795,964 Philippine people will select overseas Filipino workers or OFWs many of among other political positions 12 new senators whom supported the President in 2016. The — it is The Battle for The Twelve 30,026,953 or 48.6% are male while 31,816,797 Philippine Senate Seats. or 51.4% are female.

Two major forces — the Otso Diretso Voters in the age bracket 18 to 29 comprise representing the Opposition and the Hugpong 18,847,230 or 30.5% — the so-called Gen Z; 30 Ng Pagbabago or HNP representing the choice to 44 with 19,911,867 or 32.2% known as the of President Rodrigo Roa Duterte face each Gen X; 45 to 64 with 17,216,364 or 27.8%; 65 other. The former has the usual Liberal Party and above with 5,868,289 or 9.8%. Those (or Dilawan) candidates plus new faces focuses belonging to the 18 to 35 age bracket (the youth on issues. The latter has traditional politicians, age) are almost 45%. some who have been charged in the , one a daughter of the former Catholics in the Philippines comprise 81% of the dictator, actors and the usual political family total population; Protestant Christians, 11%; names plus two new ones entertaining voters. and Muslims, 6%.

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In 2016, the percentage share of number of letter read all throughout the Sunday and early families in the AB bracket (with an average morning Monday masses just before election annual income of P1.86 million) is only 1% but day with the simple message, “Tanggapin ang their % share in total income is 9%; the C pera, iboto ang konsensiya (take the money, bracket (P 603K) is 9% with 26% share in total vote your conscience.”) Here lies the main income; D bracket (P 191,000) is 60% with 56% difference — in 1986 it was a Catholic Church of total income; and E bracket (P62K) is 30%. united and led by a fierce Cardinal.

The 51.4% women voters weigh in on the And what about the 90% (60% in D and 30% in continuous anti-feminist proclamations of the E) votes — the vote of the poor? Who will they President — rape jokes, touching a maid’s vote for? Certainly the fisherfolk in Zambales private part, and ‘shoot in the vagina’ tirades. who cannot fish anymore in Panatag Shoal and Would this be enough to sway them to support others in West Philippine Sea areas, the farmers 8Diretso or stick with the President’s HNP bets? whose rice harvest are now sold at low prices, the Anyway they were not the ones raped, families who lost loved ones (specially children touched, nor shot in the vagina? like Kian Santos) in tokhang, the Filipino workers whose jobs here in their own motherland were The 32.2% Gen X and 30.5% Gen Z active in given to foreign Chinese workers paid at high social media are a very powerful bloc. Will they salary than them, those who see the Chinese are deliver the votes for Otso Diretso for a change taking over the country, and those who feel their or vote without thinking critically for old lives are worse off because of high prices due to traditional politicians (some charged with inflation would vote for the opposition and not plunder for stealing the peoples’ money) or the HNP supported by the President? Or would because they still believe in the President. What they? does it tell of the majority of the youth when mock polls in top Universities delivered votes *** for the opposition? Will the youth in other schools follow suit? Or maybe the first question Benjamin Roberto G. Barretto is currently a part is, “will the youth vote at all?” time professor with the Political Science Department of Ateneo de Manila University. He Then there is the 80% Roman Catholic faithful and is also Vice President for Planning and the call for One Catholic Vote (though not Community Services of the Pamantasan ng explicitly stating in some cases for Otso Diretso). Lungsod ng Marikina (PLMar) as well as its Dean The call is a direct reaction to the constant for the College of Management and Technology. maligning of the Roman Catholic’s God — Jesus He was the former Executive Director of the and the Saints and the veiled threat to kill bishops Jesuit Volunteers Philippines Foundation Inc. and priests who criticize the President anti-drug (JVPFI) and was a former Administrator of the campaign. A number of bishops Ateneo School of Government. and priests including Bishop Socrates Villegas and Bishop Pablo David and Fr. Albert Alejo and Robert Reyes have pleaded for support in the call the One Catholic Vote at the ire of the President. But where are the rest? Will they use the pulpit to defend their God? Or do they really believe in their God more than in the President?

The last One Catholic vote said to succeed was during the 7 February 1986 snap election when the late Jaime Cardinal Sin issued a pastoral

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What is your opinion of your President?

By Jennifer S. Oreta, Ph.D. 13 May 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/what-is-your-opinion-of-your-president/

The Myanmar Colonel was smiling as he asked a Senate dominated by pro-administration me this publicly — it was an earnest question. members means that charter change and a shift Majority of the Myanmar Tatmadaw (military to Federalism would be an inevitable reality by and police) present in the gathering are the end of this year. Likewise, the major supporters of President Duterte, or at least they programs of the government will continue – the approve of what he’s doing as regards peace war on drugs, the foreign policy that seemingly and order. I answered, “I didn’t vote for him, but favors China, martial law in Mindanao, the he was voted by our people. So, he is my Bangsamoro peace process, the Build-Build- President.” The subtext of my answer is that Build infrastructure program. A divided Senate, democracy, imperfect as it is, is still my chosen or at least a Senate with 9 or 10 opposition political system for the Philippines. The officers members, is expected to stop or delay the nodded approvingly, including the Major charter change train, as well as to pose a critical General in front. Myanmar is in its beginning challenge to the major programs of the journey towards democratization; they look at government. the Philippines for lessons. The mid-term national election, as has been in Monday’s midterm election seals the fate of the past, is really a test on how much the the remaining three years of the Duterte electorate approves or rejects the programs of administration. As of this writing, the election the current administration. During the result is not known yet, but the outcome, administration of President Arroyo, majority of whichever it goes, is generally predictable: the pro-administration Senate candidates failed

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to get the nod of the electorate in 2007, making the Church leadership has to say. This perhaps is the Senate dominated by the opposition. Note what the President is banking on — knowing that that the term of office of President Arroyo the Catholic vote has never been proven, his (2004-2010) was saddled with legitimacy issues consistent attack on the Church — its leaders and due to the “Hello Garci” scandal that alleged values — was meant to further wedge massive cheating in the 2004 presidential a divide between the “church” and “state” elections. On the other hand, the winning streak domains. In doing so, however, he has made of the pro-administration Senate candidates the conflict personal. in 2013, during the administration of President Benigno Aquino III, signals approval Conflict and disagreements based on resources for his administration. and programs are easier to resolve because they mainly operate in the realm of ideas — and ideas The 2019 midterm election under President can be tested, resources can be allocated and Duterte has been one of the most divisive divided, and conflicts can find compromises. elections of late. Of course, past elections also However, once disagreements enter the realm divide communities and families, but not in the of values and principles, it rips through the core same toxic and hurtful environment as what was of one’s identity and reason for being. Unlike created under the current administration. Lines resources and programs, values are a zero-sum have been drawn, not just based on support game — either you embrace the value, or you or rejection of government programs and reject it. The conflict becomes personal. And personalities, but significantly, lines are drawn personal conflicts are the most hurtful kind. based on religious values and principles. This is the subtext of the entire campaign season. The President himself knowingly created this The outcome will demonstrate whether the situation — since assuming office, he has strong participation of Church leaders — not since launched a consistent attack on the leaders of been observed since the campaign of Cory the Catholic Church, its laity, its doctrines and Aquino in the 1986 snap elections — has affected values. He has forced a situation where people the voting preference of its members. But more will choose between their support for him or importantly, the midterm election has wedged a their support for the Church. This apparently is divide between families, friends, colleagues, deliberate — the Church has always been a communities — a divide that will affect relations major player in shaping the direction of the long after the elections are over. country. From the 1986 People Power, the 2001 People Power 2, and on issues of charter Indeed, it is expected that not everyone will be change, death penalty, and divorce, the happy with the election results. Protests will be Church has always flexed its muscle, asserting filed, accusations exchanged. But as a that these issues stand irreconcilable with the democracy, it is imperative that we respect the morality, values and doctrines of the Catholic results of the exercise, provided of course that faith. the election was clean and honest. Imperfect as it is, this is our democracy journey. Consistently, the church has proven to be a major force to reckon with. Given the clear divergence And hence, the same question, with slight between the position of the Church, especially on modification, remains: what is your opinion the flagship “war on drugs” program of the of your elections? administration, a stand-off is inevitable. The mid- term election is the stage. The interesting part is *** that while the Catholic Church has and can pull its weight on certain issues, there has never been Jennifer Santiago Oreta is an Assistant Professor a Catholic vote. Its members seemingly follow of the Ateneo de Manila University Department of their own choices when it comes to politics, Political Science, and Director of the Ateneo regardless of what Initiative for Southeast Asian Studies.

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Why we (don't) vote

By Maria Elissa Jayme-Lao, D.P.A. 03 June 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/why-we-dont-vote/

Political decision-making is usually the territory noted by the same organization is the steady of those in power. What electoral democracy decline of voter turnout globally since the affords us is a window of opportunity to 1990s. People vote for a myriad of reasons: (1) it improve status quo: to elect representatives is part of political culture (2) practical questions who will protect our values, our political such as election day as a non working holiday, aspirations, and our hope for the future. It is the for example (3) a good electoral contest where key feature of our political system. there is no clear winner and any number of individual reasons there may be for going out Prior to the decision of who to vote for is the and voting on election day. In the Philippines, decision to actually vote. It is a valuable one: to we do fairly well, voter turnout wise — with opt to wield what political power the slip of ballot around 70-80% except for 2007. paper (or in our case, the ½ cartolina sized roll) we hold on election day. Voter turnout, according to The other side of that question, and equally International IDEA (2016) is “the extent to which important, is why people decide not to vote. eligible voters use their vote on election day” and What keeps people away from the polls? what has additionally been International IDEA lists both socioeconomic and

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political factors that affect people’s decision to Joshua Uyheng’s recent work (2019) “Senatorial vote? I have chosen some of the findings from Poscript: Campaign talk, Predicting Winnability their 2016 report to highlight that may have from FB likes and Other Big Data Analyses” with some bearing on the Philippine situation: “(1) support from the IPC’s Merit Research Awards frequent movement from one place to another, (MRA) Program uses data mined from Facebook on the other hand, may decrease people’s desire likes and comments to further understand the to engage in the political process. (2) economic discourse built over the election period on the adversity negatively affects political participation popular social media platform Facebook. because economic hardship can result in voter apathy and lead people to These virtual spaces are the areas which young withdraw from politics and focus on meeting voters (and digital natives) inhabit. their basic needs (3) the existence of individual Understanding these spaces are a crucial link to registration requirements that must be fulfilled understanding how elections can remain by the voter creates an additional burden for relevant to a new generation of voters and voters.” decision makers and ensuring that they continue to actually go out and vote. There is also one individual factor, which affects voter turnout that stands out: *** International IDEA cites age as “one of the most important factors to affect voter Maria Elissa J. Lao is an Assistant Professor of turnout.” It cites voter youth apathy as a Political Science at the Ateneo de Manila primary source of concern in many countries. University where she is currently the Director of Finally, it cautions that “some factors affect the Institute of Philippine Culture. only certain groups of the population: women, minority groups, youth and so on” which makes the case for additional support for areas where access to both registration and polling areas may be difficult. This includes the current work being done for Overseas Filipino Workers, older adults and differently abled.

However, this still leaves the question of the youth and whether or not they are voting — or even registering when they reach voting age? Here, I return to a study done by the Institute of Philippine Culture (IPC) in 2005. The “Vote of the Poor: Modernity and Tradition in People’s Views of Leadership and Elections” drives home the point that elections in the Philippines are complex contests of political survival that play out most vividly in local contests where people are intimately connected to their votes. Voters, including the poor and the youth, understand the value and role of elections in democratic society and exercise their individual agency in these contests. They are not bystanders, but active players during election time.

However, some of that landscape has changed and virtual arenas have also opened up the electoral discourse. Dr. Cristina Montiel and

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Why the opposition lost in the 2019 Midterm (Senatorial) Elections

By Diana J. Mendoza, Ph.D. 10 June 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/why-the-opposition-lost-in-the-2019-midterm- senatorial-elections/

The opposition lost. Not one of the Liberal Party Whether or not there was election manipulation (LP)-dominated “Otso Diretso” senatorial or vote rigging, the results of the 2019 midterm contenders made it to the 12 Senate seats up elections painted a picture of a positive for grabs. Not even its frontrunner candidate referendum on the performance of the country’s who was a reelectionist or Mar president. This is contrary to the opinion of Roxas who topped the 2004 senatorial race (15 some observers of Philippine politics who years ago!), both with outstanding legislative thought that the midterm elections could track records to their credit, made it against the penalize the president, hence, picturing the other reelectionist senators and political electorate as punitive and the midterm elections newcomers who ran under the President’s as a protest vote against the president. But the ruling party The Partido Demokratiko Pilipino– opposition lost! Why did the opposition lose the Lakas ng Bayan (PDP–Laban) or under Davao senatorial race? City Mayor -Carpio’s regional party, Hugpong ng Pagbabago (HNP). To date, A confluence of factors can help explain why questions about the integrity of the 2019 the opposition lost. One set of factors can be midterm elections remain in public discourse. understood from the demand side (voters) and another from the supply side (parties and candidates) of the electoral competition.

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To begin with, the race to the Senate was not and agenda, the voters often must settle for the highly contested. It was very divisive, yes, candidate who is either popular or who they are but not highly contested. Candidates did not familiar with. The endorsement of, and alliance feel obliged to be more responsive to voters with, the popular incumbent president sealed and their preferences. There were 62 the victory of the administration candidates. candidates who competed for the twelve seats in the Senate. But how many of these The opposition lost not just because they candidates participated in public debates? failed to micro-target voters, but more fatal than this omission was a campaign strategy to Administration bets have obviously stayed clear turn the senatorial race into a zero-sum game, from these debates, not because they were intentionally or not. Worst, it was a zero-sum afraid or intimidated, but simply because they game between them, the opposition slate, and did not see any electoral value or add-ons in the popular president. With the President’s joining these debates. For the opposition, it was popularity across all classes of society, the different. Lacking resources, the opposition saw opposition’s boat was definitely sinking, and the debates as gratis opportunities for electoral its votes shrinking. mileage. But without administration candidates in the debates to challenge or to respond to, the By defeating the administration bets and opposition could not present itself as better or allies either through negative campaigning strong contenders. or shaming (as some political observers have surmised already), Otso Diretso thought Due to the lack of resources and weak party that votes would automatically transfer to institutionalization of the Liberal Party, Otso them. They were wrong. The negativity Diretso failed to microtarget voters for manifested itself strongly at the ballot box. personalized mobilization. Yes, the LP had Project Makinig (PM), “a nationwide, technology-driven, Turning the senatorial race into a zero-sum game door-to-door” listening campaign launched by the weakened what was already a weak campaign party in October 2018 that aimed at “re- strategy. The opposition identified multiple connecting” the party with the people, especially issues where each issue took many stances. at the grassroots. But how many voters did the Under such conditions, voters are more inclined party reach? How many did it mobilize? How to settle for the candidate whose stances are many did it “re-connect” with? With its launch closest to their own. Unfortunately, we have not almost seven months before the midterm yet reached the stage wherein voters can truly elections, the project was rather late. vote on issues. This is due to a lack of full information, which is either The effort of the LP to focus its campaign a problem of availability or accessibility of strategies at grassroots organizing and personal information, or both. contacting of select voters was commendable. But strategically, what impact did it make Without complete information (and ample time particularly in vote-rich provinces and regions in as well as the temperament to consume the country? Did the voting publics know about information judiciously) voters cannot decide Project Makinig in the first place? on the basis of the actual salience of any issue to them. Hence, the voters often must settle for In terms of platforms, how different were the the candidate who is either popular or who they opposition candidates from the other are familiar with. Again, it worked against the contenders? Didn’t they promise better lives and opposition. a more peaceful Philippines just like the others? Didn’t they promise to work for social and A more alarming omission by the opposition economic justice, inclusive growth and was that it mistakenly focused more on its development, and the country’s sovereignty like strategy and less on its strategic goals. The the others? With the same or similar platform immediate goal of the senatorial race was

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to win votes. Administration bets and allies campaigned for votes. But the opposition campaigned for seats. What a huge difference!

So busy with defeating the President’s candidates, the opposition exhausted limited resources to persuade voters by offering a government and policy agenda that questioned and sought to replace the incumbent government’s priorities. It campaigned against the government’s war on drugs primarily due to human rights violation concerns, its “alliance” with China, the movement towards charter change and/or federalism, as well as the president’s misogynist remarks, among other things.

Doing so, they projected themselves as a group of people who could push for change. But they fell short of convincing the voting public that they were the right group to lead the charge. The combined effect of the president’s popularity and the relatively good economic performance of the country under his watch undermined the opposition candidates’ incentives to present themselves as leaders for change.

What seemed to have happened was that the government was “rewarded” instead of “punished” despite the “excesses” and “failures” that dominated the campaign discourse of the opposition.

And so, what is next for the opposition after the 2019 midterm elections? With only four opposition Senate members (with one still detained) left in the incoming 18th Congress, will the opposition make or break the Senate? What does the opposition need to do to (re)gain relevance in the synchronized national and local elections in 2022? They need to recalibrate. For example, they need to microtarget voters and match their strategy to context.

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Diana J. Mendoza, PhD, is Chair of the Department of Political Science at the Ateneo de Manila University.

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Vote-Shaming in the Midterm Elections

By Pilar Preciousa P. Berse, Ph.D. 17 June 2019 - https://www.bworldonline.com/vote-shaming-in-the-midterm-elections/

“Yung mga boboto sa mga taong ’to, paki- of a vote come May 13. The closer the election unfriend ako please. Wala akong kaibigang date got, the viler the posts became. As soon bobo.” (Those who will vote for the following as the election results showed the dismal candidates, please unfriend me. I have no ranking of the opposition candidates, the vile stupid friends.) memes turned into vicious attacks that gave a glimpse of an election culture that is both disconcerting and worrisome. Vote-shaming. The statement above was shared as various memes on Facebook during the Plunder and graft case defendants. It is not campaign season leading to the midterm difficult to see where the bobo sentiments came elections. Bobo-shaming statements like this from. Of the 12 Hugpong-backed candidates, attempted to shame voters who are thought of three have pending or have had plunder charges as ill-informed and uneducated based on their recently filed against them at the unpopular choices, especially for the senatorial in the course of their political career. The names post. It was followed by a list of names, marked of re-elected senator and losing with a red line for emphasis, of senatorial senatorial re-electionists and candidates publicly declared as undeserving stand

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out, having been charged with separate plunder Negative campaigning did not help. The dismal and graft cases in 2014 for misuse of results of the 2019 elections for Otso Diretso government funds. In 2014, the Office of the candidates make a good case for reflection Ombudsman officially charged Revilla with especially with the win of Revilla, who just got plunder before the Sandiganbayan after he was out on bail a few months before the campaign, accused of divesting his pork barrel funds and Marcos, whose name alone ought to have through the bogus NGOs linked with Janet had an impact on the votes cast for her. Post- Napoles and earning kickbacks worth P224.5 election analysis points to the negative million in return. He was also charged with 16 campaign ran by the opposition during the counts of graft in connection with the same campaign season as a major contributing multi-billion pork barrel scam. The anti-graft factor. In an interview with ABS-CBN (2019), court acquitted Revilla in 2018 for the plunder political analyst Ramon Casiple of the Institute case, allowing him to post bail, but the 16 for Political and Electoral Reform said that counts of graft charges related to the same while downgrading opponents and promoting scam are still under trial. Estrada’s and Enrile’s allies may be part of the campaign system, it plunder and graft cases stem from the should not end there. Negative campaigning accusation that they amassed P183 million and alone diverts the political discourse away from P172 million worth of kickbacks, respectively, the issue and overshadows an alternative for funneling their PDAF (Priority Development platform offered by a candidate. Eventually, it Assistance Fund) to the same Napoles-linked fails to capture the interest of a voter along with bogus NGOs. Revilla managed to secure the the chance to impact his choice. 11th slot in the midterm elections but Estrada and Enrile, who are both out on bail for their The negative campaign that dominated the existing plunder charges, failed in their bids. May 2019 elections disenfranchised the D and E voters because they were singled out and Revilla won; Otso Diretso slate lost. If the chastised for their voting preferences without midterm elections were any indication, the regard to the possibility that these preferences vote-shaming messages on various social weren’t decided on overnight. Those who media platforms intended to influence voters’ subscribed to negative campaigning thought preference by shaming them did not help the they were shaming D and E voters for the way opposition’s cause. One can boldly say they think; they thought that a little insult it backfired on them. Most of the Hugpong- coming from classes A, B, and C would backed candidates who fared well in pre- “enlighten” these voters and help them make election surveys did win eventually. Vote- better choices overnight. In the end, it was shaming failed to turn the tables, so to speak. bobo-shaming for the sake of shaming the Revilla won, and while Enrile did not make it poor, the unemployed, and the illiterate. It even to the top 20, Estrada did and — with the came out tasteless and arrogant, and left the exception of outgoing senator Bam Aquino who masa disenfranchised for having been vilified, was at the 14th spot — bested the entire but mostly unheard. opposition slate including Otso Diretso’s popular first-time senatorial candidate Chel Lessons learned. The elections were over before Diokno and former senator and presidentiable the inedible ink on everyone’s fingers was gone. . Imee Marcos, whose entire While negative campaigning has always been part campaign had her team fending off attacks that of the game, it sometimes does more harm than questioned the veracity of her educational good because it draws attention to the criticism background, won and got the eighth spot. The and drowns out the alternative candidate or unexplained ill-gotten wealth of the Marcos platform being pushed forward. Running against family and the court convictions of former First the administration makes it trickier since the Lady did not stop her from administration has all the machinery at hand and winning a coveted seat in Senate. their reach is unlimited. Opposition candidates need to make sure that

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every limited attempt to be heard will yield a vote for them and not seething contempt. Seeing candidates with plunder and graft cases doing well at pre-election surveys should not be used as an excuse to vilify others. Instead, it must be taken as an opportunity to educate the voters without letup about the gravity of such charges. The May 2019 elections taught us that shaming, especially of the masa, does nothing to translate the act of shaming itself into votes. It does nothing except to shame.

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Pilar Pajayon-Berse is a professor at the Political Science department of Ateneo de Manila University.

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The Department of Political Science envisions itself as a catalyst in molding the political and social consciousness of the Ateneo de Manila University and About the the larger community which the school serves. Through its teaching, research and outreach activities, the Department seeks to participate in Department processes of democratization and popular empowerment at many levels—local, national and of Political global—within the framework of critical inquiry, intellectual rigor and committed public service. Science We are a recognized CHED Center of Development.

The AB Political Science program is also recognized Contact Us regionally after being accredited by the ASEAN Room 300, 3/F Ricardo & Dr. Rosita Leong University Network-Quality Assurance (AUN-QA) in Hall School of Social Sciences Ateneo de 2019. Manila University Loyola Heights, 1108 Philippines Our department offers the following programs: Tel. No.: (632) 8 426 6001 ext. no. 5250, 5253 Facsimile: (632) 8 426 0906 Email: Undergraduate Degree Programs [email protected] • AB Political Science Website: ateneo.edu/ls/soss/political-science • AB Diplomacy and International Facebook: www.facebook.com/ateneopolsci Relations with Specialization in East and Southeast Asian Studies

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This series was made possible with the support of BusinessWorld, the Philippines’ leading business newspaper. You may visit their site via https://www.bworldonline.com/.

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Full-time Faculty for SY 2020-2021

Diana J. Mendoza Oliver John C. Quintana Chair, Department of Political M.A. in International and Area Studies with Science Ph.D. in Political Science Specialization in Indian and ASEAN Socio- City University of Hong Kong Cultural Studies [email protected] Hankuk University of Foreign Studies [email protected] Carmel V. Abao Ph.D. in Development Studies De Ma. Lourdes V. Rallonza La Salle University-Manila Ph.D. in Political Science [email protected] University of the Philippines- Diliman [email protected] Arjan P. Aguirre M.A. in Political Science, Major in Global Miguel Paolo P. Rivera Politics Ateneo de Manila University M.A. in Political Science, Major in Global [email protected] Politics Ateneo de Manila University [email protected] Pilar Preciousa P. Berse Ph.D. in International Studies Alma Maria O. Salvador Graduate School of Asia-Pacific Studies Ph.D. in Development Studies De Waseda University La Salle University-Manila [email protected] [email protected]

Anne Lan K. Candelaria Benjamin T. Tolosa, Jr. Ph.D. in Education Management (Policy Ph.D. in Political Science and Leadership Studies) University of Minnesota National Institute of Education [email protected] Nanyang Technological University- Singapore [email protected] Gino Antonio P. Trinidad M.A. in Political Science, Major in Global Maria Elissa J. Lao Politics Ateneo de Manila University Doctor of Public Administration [email protected] National College of Public Administration and Governance University of the Philippines [email protected]

Jennifer S. Oreta Ph.D. in Political Sciece University of Santo Tomas [email protected]