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America, Iran and the Threat of War Financial Era Advisory Group Contents the Economist May 11Th 2019 3 https://t.me/finera The psychology of US-China trade Democracy at risk in Latin America Caster Semenya: a consequential ruling How creepy is your smart speaker? MAY 11TH–17TH 2019 Collision course America, Iran and the threat of war Financial Era Advisory Group Contents The Economist May 11th 2019 3 The world this week United States 8 A round-up of political 21 Trump v Congress and business news 22 The racism recession 24 Policing madness Leaders 25 Mexican-Americans 11 America and Iran Collision course 26 Lexington Jared Kushner’s peace plan 12 Trade talks Deal or no deal The Americas 12 Latin America 27 What next for Venezuela Under the volcano 28 Baseball in Peru 13 The Istanbul election Going down On the cover 14 Snoop in the kitchen How creepy is your smart As tensions rise between speaker? America and Iran, both sides need to step back: leader, Letters Asia page 11. The risk of conflict is On psychiatry, the EU, 29 Australia’s election growing, page 37. Iran’s 16 ballot initiatives, Huawei, 30 Press freedom in president does not want to air pollution, measles, Myanmar walk away from the nuclear Hell deal, page 38 30 Philippine elections 31 India’s GDP statistics • The psychology of US-China Briefing 32 Monarchy in Thailand trade The two countries have 18 Latin America 33 Banyan Legacy of the Raj become strategic rivals. Their The 40-year itch trading relationship will be fraught for years to come: leader, China page 12. China’s measured 34 Studying in Taiwan strategy could soon be put to 35 Warships in the strait the test, page 58. How much harm have tariffs done? Page 59 36 Chaguan The dangers of divergence • Democracy at risk in Latin America Four decades after dictatorships began to give way to democracy, populism and polarisation pose unprecedented Middle East & Africa threats: briefing, page 18.The 37 America v Iran danger goes well beyond Cuba, 38 Rouhani’s tough talk Nicaragua and Venezuela: 39 Rockets over Gaza leader, page 12 39 Murder in Malawi • Caster Semenya: a 40 Benin’s lousy election consequential ruling It is a very Schumpeter Beneath the specific decision for a very special Amazon-led digital runner. But it has implications far economy lies a physical beyond athletics, page 49 gold mine, page 57 • How creepy is your smart speaker? Worries about privacy are overstated, but not entirely without merit: leader, page 14. Household electronics are undergoing a sensory makeover, page 65 1 Contents continues overleaf https://t.me/finera 4 Contents The Economist May 11th 2019 Europe Finance & economics 41 Istanbul’s mayor deposed 58 China’s trade-war tactics 42 Italy gets out of recession 59 America’s tariffs 43 Free transport in Tallinn 60 The EU bullies Switzerland 43 French names 60 India’s stockmarket 44 Russian trade unions 61 Mobile money in Nigeria 45 Charlemagne The 61 Conditional welfare politics of suburbia 62 Buttonwood Volatility and options Britain 63 America’s community 46 New left-wing thinking banks 47 Monarchy and media 64 Free exchange The future 48 Bagehot A defence of Uber secretary on manoeuvres Science & technology 65 Smart speakers with sight 66 Academic success International 66 Satellite internet 49 Caster Semenya and the 68 Formula E racing future of women’s sport 69 A report on extinction 69 Protecting coral reefs Books & arts 70 The uses of antiquity Business 71 Into the underland 51 Anheuser-Busch InBev 72 Johnson Family trees 53 Russia’s abortive 73 A beguiling debut novel aerospace renaissance 73 Religion in America 53 Lyft’s public distress 54 Bidding for Anadarko Economic & financial indicators 54 Americans and pay-TV 76 Statistics on 42 economies 55 Bartleby Bad hirers 56 Intel’s fear of missing out Graphic detail 57 Schumpeter The REIT 77 How Mount Everest went mainstream stuff Obituary 78 Les Murray, Australia’s best poet Subscription service For our full range of subscription offers, including digital only or print and digital combined, visit: Economist.com/offers Volume 431Number 9142 Published since September 1843 You can also subscribe by mail, telephone or email: One-year print-only subscription (51 issues): Please to take part in “a severe contest between North America intelligence, which presses forward, The Economist Subscription Center, United States..........................................US $189 (plus tax) and an unworthy, timid ignorance P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis, MO 63146-6978 Canada......................................................CA $199 (plus tax) obstructing our progress.” Telephone: +1 800 456 6086 Latin America.......................................US $325 (plus tax) Email: [email protected] Editorial offices in London and also: PEFC certified Amsterdam, Beijing, Berlin, Brussels, Cairo, Latin America & Mexico This copy of The Economist Chicago, Johannesburg, Madrid, Mexico City, The Economist Subscription Center, is printed on paper sourced Moscow, Mumbai, New Delhi, New York, Paris, P.O. Box 46979, St. Louis, MO 63146-6979 from sustainably managed San Francisco, São Paulo, Seoul, Shanghai, Telephone: +1 636 449 5702 forests certified to PEFC Singapore, Tokyo, Washington DC Email: [email protected] PEFC/29-31-58 www.pefc.org © 2019 The Economist Newspaper Limited. All rights reserved. Neither this publication nor any part of it may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of The Economist Newspaper Limited. The Economist (ISSN 0013-0613) is published every week, except for a year-end double issue, by The Economist Newspaper Limited, 750 3rd Avenue, 5th Floor, New York, N Y 10017. The Economist is a registered trademark of The Economist Newspaper Limited. Periodicals postage paid at New York, NY and additional mailing offices. Postmaster: Send address changes to The Economist, P.O. Box 46978, St. Louis , MO. 63146-6978, USA. Canada Post publications mail (Canadian distribution) sales agreement no. 40012331. Return undeliverable Canadian addresses to The Economist, PO Box 7258 STN A, Toronto, ON M5W 1X9. GST R123236267. Printed by Quad/Graphics, Saratoga Springs, NY 12866 Financial Era Advisory Group 8 The world this week Politics The Economist May 11th 2019 Palestinian militants in Gaza mayor, Bill de Blasio, criticised fired hundreds of rockets into his racist and homophobic The royal proclamation southern Israel, killing four remarks and hostility towards Donald Trump invoked exec- Israelis. Israel responded by greenery. Mr Bolsonaro was utive privilege in his fight with pounding Gaza with air strikes, due to receive a person-of-the Democrats in Congress, who killing 27 Palestinians. It was year award from the Brazilian- want the administration to the deadliest fighting since American Chamber of Com- release the unredacted version 2014. A truce was finally bro- merce. Several sponsors had of the Mueller report. That kered by Egypt. pulled out of the event. didn’t stop the House Judiciary Committee from holding South Africans voted in a The United States revoked William Barr, the attorney- general election that was held sanctions it had placed on general, in contempt. With America sent an aircraft-carri- 25 years after the end of apart- Christopher Figuera, the head relations souring between the er group to the Middle East in heid. Polls suggest that the of Venezuela’s intelligence two branches of government, response to “troubling and African National Congress, service, who recently turned Americas’s treasury secretary, escalatory” signs that Iran which has ruled since1994, against the regime led by Nico- Steven Mnuchin, earlier re- might attack American forces would win again, although lás Maduro and fled the coun- fused to release Mr Trump’s tax in the region. Iran, meanwhile, with its smallest-ever majority. try. The Trump administration returns to Democrats, arguing said it would no longer abide said this was an incentive for that the “unprecedented” by all of the terms of the The World Health Organisation other senior Venezuelan offi- request was being made under nuclear deal it signed with is to increase the number of cials who have been sanc- an obscure law. America and other world vaccinations it administers in tioned to support Juan Guaidó, powers in 2015. America an effort to contain the spread the opposition leader, in his A federal court found that withdrew from that deal last of the Ebola virus in the Demo- effort to oust Mr Maduro. Ohio’s congressional districts year and reimposed sanctions, cratic Republic of Congo. had been drawn to favour the aiming to cut off Iranian oil Laurentino Cortizo, the centre- Republicans and ordered that exports; it announced new left’s candidate, was declared they be remade for the 2020 sanctions this week, targeting A New York state of mind the winner in Panama’s unex- election. It is the second recent iron, steel, copper and alumi- Brazil’s president, Jair Bolso- pectedly close presidential ruling to strike down partisan nium, which account for naro, cancelled a trip to New election. He campaigned most- gerrymandering, after a around 10% of Iran’s exports. York after some groups and the ly on tackling corruption. similar case in Michigan. 1 https://t.me/finera The Economist May 11th 2019 The world this week 9 2 Still in the stoning age wards, the Election Commis- imprisonment after revealing Denmark called an election for The sultan of Brunei respond- sion announced the official details of a massacre of Muslim June 5th. The Social Democrats ed to critics of the harsh Islam- results of the election held in civilians by the army. are expected to take back pow- ic penal code he recently pro- March. It altered the formula er from the centre-right, large- mulgated by suggesting that its for allocating seats, thereby North Korea tested a series of ly because their leader has most controversial punish- depriving the opposition short-range missiles.
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