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A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland

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A Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland (Defra project code GA0204) A climate change risk assessment for Northern Ireland January 2012 Contractors: HR Wallingford AMEC Environment & Infrastructure UK Ltd (formerly Entec UK Ltd) The Met Office Collingwood Environmental Planning Alexander Ballard Ltd Paul Watkiss Associates Metroeconomica Statement of use: See full statement of use on Page iv. Keywords: Northern Ireland, climate change, risk assessment Research contractor: HR Wallingford Howbery Park, Wallingford, Oxon, OX10 8BA Tel: +44(0)1491 835381 (For contractor quality control purposes this report will form part of report number EX 6473) Defra project officer: Dominic Rowland Defra contact details: Adapting to Climate Change Programme, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Area 3A Nobel House 17 Smith Square London SW1P 3JR Tel: 020 7238 3000 www.defra.gov.uk/adaptation Document History: Date Release Prepared Notes 25/02/11 1.0 HR Wallingford First release to DoENI 28/03/11 2.0 HR Wallingford Second release to DoENI with amendments based on feedback 17/05/11 3.0 HR Wallingford Third release to DoENI with amendments based on feedback. 16/08/11 3.0A HR Wallingford Partially complete amendments to third release based on feedback and revised specification. 18/11/11 4.0 HR Wallingford Fourth release to DoENI with completed amendments based on feedback on R3 and R3A. 21/12/11 5.0 HR Wallingford Fourth release to DoENI with amendments based on feedback on R4. 20/01/12 6.0 HR Wallingford Final release 24/01/12 7.0 HR Wallingford Minor edits 23/04/12 8.0 HR Wallingford Minor typo corrections 17/05/12 9.0 HR Wallingford Minor edits ii Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland Amended 23rd April 2012 from the version published on 25th January 2012. Amendments to the version published on 25th January 2012 The following corrections have been made: Pages vii, 3, 6, 10, 15, 16, 26, 27, 28, 40, 45, 55, 65, 67, 68, 69, 75, 76, 77, 88, 99, 106, 118, 119, 120, 128, 129, 135, 140, 143, 152, 159, 163, 164, 165, 166, 171: Minor typographic errors corrected. Amended 18th May 2012 from the previous version The following corrections have been made: Tables 4.12 and 4.13 have been corrected. © Crown copyright 2012 You may use and re-use the information featured in this document/publication (not including logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/open-government- licence.htm Any email enquiries regarding the use and re-use of this information resource should be sent to: Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland iii [email protected]. Alternatively write to The Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, Richmond, Surrey, TW9 4DU. Printed on paper containing 75% recycled fibre content minimum. This report is available online at: http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/government/ iv Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland Statement of Use This report presents the findings of an assessment of climate change risks for Northern Ireland, which has been completed as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). Before reading this report it is important to understand the process of evidence gathering for the CCRA. The CCRA methodology is novel in that it has compared over 100 risks (prioritised from an initial list of over 700) from a number of disparate sectors based on the magnitude of the consequences and confidence in the evidence base. A key strength of the analysis is the use of a consistent method and set of climate projections to look at current and future threats and opportunities. The CCRA methodology has been developed through a number of stages involving expert peer review. The approach developed is a tractable, repeatable methodology that is not dependent on changes in long term plans between the 5 year cycles of the CCRA. The results, with the exception of population growth where this is relevant, do not include societal change in assessing future risks, either from non-climate related change, for example economic growth, or developments in new technologies; or future responses to climate risks such as future Government policies or private adaptation investment plans. Excluding these factors from the analysis provides a more robust ‘baseline’ against which the effects of different plans and policies can be more easily assessed. However, when utilising the outputs of the CCRA, it is essential to consider that Government and key organisations are already taking action in many areas to minimise climate change risks and these interventions need to be considered when assessing where further action may be best directed or needed. Initially, eleven ‘sectors’ were chosen from which to gather evidence: Agriculture, Biodiversity & Ecosystem Services, Built Environment, Business, Industry & Services, Energy, Forestry, Floods and Coastal Erosion, Health, Marine & Fisheries, Transport and Water. A review was undertaken to identify the range of climate risks within each sector. The review was followed by a selection process that included sector workshops to identify the most important risks (or opportunities) within the sector. Approximately 10% of the total number of risks (or opportunities) across all sectors were selected for more detailed consideration and analysis as part of the UK-wide assessment. The risk assessment used UKCP09 climate projections to assess future changes to these selected sector risks. Risks were, in general, analysed using single climate variables, for example temperature. A final CCRA Evidence Report draws together information from the eleven sectors (as well as other evidence streams) to provide an overview of risks from climate change to the UK. This report for Northern Ireland provides a similar overview of risks from climate change to Northern Ireland. The most important risks (or opportunities) for the UK were reviewed with Northern Ireland stakeholders to determine which were important for Northern Ireland. This resulted in some risks being dropped from the list and others being added. Where risks have been added, these have not been analysed in detail, Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland v but are discussed within the broader context of risks from climate change to Northern Ireland. Neither this report nor the CCRA Evidence Report aims to provide an in depth, quantitative analysis of risk within any particular ‘sector’. Where detailed analysis is presented using large national or regional datasets, the objective is solely to build a consistent picture of risk for the UK, including Northern Ireland, and allow for some comparison between disparate risks and regional/national differences. The results presented here should not be used for re-analysis or interpretation at a local or site- specific scale. In addition, as most risks were analysed using single climate variables, the analysis may be over-simplified in cases where the consequence of climate change is caused by more than one climate variable (for example, higher summer temperatures combined with reduced summer precipitation). vi Climate Change Risk Assessment for Northern Ireland Executive summary This climate change risk assessment for Northern Ireland has been produced as part of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA). The CCRA is required under Section 56 of the Climate Change Act 2008, and was laid before Parliament in January 2012. This report presents a national assessment of potential risks (and opportunities) from climate change facing Northern Ireland for the period to 2100. Its findings will inform the development of adaptation work in Northern Ireland. The assessment draws together and presents evidence from individual CCRA UK sector reports and recent research literature. The findings are presented for a range of possible future scenarios and include an indication of confidence in the results and areas where there are evidence gaps. Northern Ireland’s current climate is one of relatively mild winters and cool summers, although within the natural variability of its climate, Northern Ireland can experience periods of more extreme cold, wet, windy and hot weather. The CCRA is based on the UK Climate Projections, which were published in 2009 (UKCP09). This provides projections of climate change for the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s compared with the period 1961-90. For each epoch, a range of climate change scenarios have been considered. For example, changes under the 2050s Medium emissions scenario (central estimate) indicate: An increase in mean winter temperatures of 1.7°C (range 0.6 to 3.0°C)1 An increase in mean summer temperatures of 2.2°C (range 0.9 to 3.9°C) An increase in mean winter precipitation of 9% (range 2% decrease to 20% increase) An decrease in mean summer precipitation of 13% (range 25% decrease to 5% increase) In addition, sea level rise is projected to increase by between about 0.11 m and 0.19 m by 2050. These changes have been used to derive projections of changes in bio-physical systems, for example changes in river flows, aridity and water availability. These have then been used together with the climate change projections to assess the potential magnitude of consequences for Northern Ireland. A list of the most important climate change impacts and consequences for Northern Ireland was developed through a process of consultation with stakeholders. This takes account of the impacts that were considered to be most important for the UK as a whole, together with particular features and issues relevant to Northern Ireland. It is these most important impacts for Northern Ireland that form the basis of this report. Discussion of these impacts builds on the results from the analysis undertaken for the UK with additional information specifically for Northern Ireland. Specific features that distinguish Northern Ireland from the UK as a whole and, hence, may increase Northern Ireland’s vulnerability to certain consequences of climate change include: 1 The range provided in brackets represents the plausible range in projections for the scenarios selected (i.e.
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