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Unclassified ECO/WKP(2001)22 Unclassified ECO/WKP(2001)22 Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 17-May-2001 ___________________________________________________________________________________________ English text only ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT Unclassified ECO/WKP(2001)22 HOW SHOULD NORWAY RESPOND TO AGEING? ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS NO. 296 by Pablo Antolin and Wim Suyker Most Economics Department Working Papers, beginning with No. 144, are now available through OECD’s Internet Web site at http://www.oecd.org/eco/eco English text only JT00107850 Document complet disponible sur OLIS dans son format d’origine Complete document available on OLIS in its original format ECO/WKP(2001)22 ABSTRACT/RÉSUMÉ Norway, like most OECD countries, will experience a significant ageing of its population, although it will be less dramatic. Moreover, it starts from an enviable position: employment rates of older people are among the highest in the OECD, pension outlays are currently relatively low and substantial financial assets have been accumulated in the Government Petroleum Fund. However, without reforms, due to the maturing of the pension system, ageing will lead to one of the biggest increases in pension spending as a share of GDP in OECD countries over the next 50 years. This paper thus, after exploring the scale of the demographic changes, examines the relevant institutions and their effect on the decision to retire. In light of the expected increase in the elderly, various issues concerning their economic position and health care are considered. The paper then presents the fiscal impact of ageing: the cost of the pension system will more than double, while health care spending for the elderly will likely rise substantially. The paper ends by outlining the policy options to deal with ageing. It also discusses whether the oil wealth should be used to fund the pension system. ***** En Norvège, comme dans la plupart des pays de l'OCDE, le vieillissement de la population posera un problème sérieux, mais il sera moins préoccupant qu'ailleurs. De plus, ce pays bénéficie d'une position de départ enviable : les taux d'emploi des personnes âgées sont parmi les plus élevés de la zone de l'OCDE, les dépenses au titre des pensions sont pour l'instant relativement faibles, et d'importants actifs financiers ont été accumulés au Fonds pétrolier de l'État. Néanmoins, du fait de la montée en régime du système de pensions, les dépenses à ce titre rapportées au PIB connaîtront, en raison du vieillissement de la population, l'une des augmentations les plus importantes de la zone de l'OCDE au cours des 50 prochaines années si rien n’est fait pour y remédier. C'est la raison pour laquelle, après avoir tenté de déterminer l'ampleur de l'évolution démographique, le présent document examine les institutions pertinentes et leur incidence sur la décision du départ en retraite. Compte tenu de l'augmentation attendue du nombre de personnes âgées, différentes questions sont abordées concernant leur situation économique et les soins de santé dont elles auront besoin. La section suivante analyse l'incidence budgétaire du vieillissement de la population : le coût du système de pensions fera plus que doubler, tandis que les dépenses de santé des personnes âgées ont de fortes chances de s'élever sensiblement. La dernière section est consacrée aux possibilités d'action qui s'offrent aux pouvoirs publics face au vieillissement de la population, et examine le point de savoir s'il conviendrait d'utiliser la richesse pétrolière pour financer le système de pensions. JEL codes: I1, I3, J1, J11, J14. Keywords: Norway, ageing, pensions, health care, long term projections. Copyright © OECD 2001. All rights reserved. Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all, or part of, this material should be made to: Head of Publications Service, OECD, 2 rue André-Pascal, 75775 PARIS CEDEX 16, France 2 ECO/WKP(2001)22 TABLE OF CONTENTS HOW SHOULD NORWAY RESPOND TO AGEING?................................................................................5 Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5 The old-age burden facing Norway .............................................................................................................6 Support for the elderly and incentives to retire ...........................................................................................9 Care and services for the elderly ...............................................................................................................19 Pension expenditure will more than double as a share of GDP.................................................................22 Options for reform.....................................................................................................................................24 GLOSSARY..................................................................................................................................................33 BIBLIOGRAPHY.........................................................................................................................................33 ANNEX PENSION BENEFITS PROVIDED BY THE NATIONAL INSURANCE SCHEME.................35 NOTES..........................................................................................................................................................36 Boxes Box 1. The assets of the Government Petroleum Fund will rise substantially in the coming years............5 Box 2. Taxation of pension benefits..........................................................................................................17 Box 3. Financing of the health and social care system for the elderly ......................................................20 Box 4. Synopsis of options to reduce the fiscal impact of ageing.............................................................25 Tables 1. Disability pensioners in selected OECD countries.....................................................................13 2. Replacement rates, pension wealth accrual rates and implicit tax of working an extra year......16 3. Labour market status of people aged 60 to 66............................................................................17 4. Income brackets for pensioners ..................................................................................................18 5. Poverty rates in Norway .............................................................................................................19 6. Health care for the elderly in OECD countries...........................................................................21 Figures 1. Population trends ..........................................................................................................................7 2. Old-age dependency ratios ...........................................................................................................7 3. Employment rates in selected OECD countries............................................................................8 4. Employment rates for older workers in Norway ..........................................................................9 5. Pensionable income in the NIS...................................................................................................11 6. Disability pensions .....................................................................................................................13 3 ECO/WKP(2001)22 7. Number of persons on early retirement pensions .......................................................................14 8. Pension expenditure as a share of GDP in selected OECD countries ........................................23 9. Projected pension expenditure and its components ....................................................................23 10. Public sector net wealth..............................................................................................................27 4 ECO/WKP(2001)22 HOW SHOULD NORWAY RESPOND TO AGEING?1 Pablo Antolin and Wim Suyker Introduction 1. Norway, like most OECD countries, will experience a significant ageing of its population, although it will be less dramatic than elsewhere. Ageing will affect public finances through rising spending on pensions and on health care for the elderly. But Norway starts from an enviable position. Employment rates for older people are among the highest in the OECD and the level of early retirement is less of a problem. Furthermore, pension expenditure relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is relatively low, and pensioners currently enjoy reasonable replacement rates. 2. When evaluating the challenges that ageing poses, Norway differs markedly from most other countries. The government has substantial petroleum revenues and possesses ample financial assets, mostly accumulated in the Government Petroleum Fund (Box 1). Generational accounting, which is an integral part of the central government budget paper, reveals that the generational transfer problem stemming from the ageing of population is broadly under control when future petroleum revenues and the current assets of the Petroleum Fund are taken into account. Finally, with the financial assets accumulated in the Government Petroleum Fund, the government could introduce funding in the pension system, enhancing its ability to finance higher pension expenditure, without taxing
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