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An Analysis of Future Benefits from Public and Private Pension Schemes the Norwegian Country Study to the OECD Pension Adequacy Project

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An Analysis of Future Benefits from Public and Private Pension Schemes the Norwegian Country Study to the OECD Pension Adequacy Project Jon M. Hippe and Hans Gunnar Vøien An analysis of future benefits from public and private pension schemes The Norwegian country study to the OECD pension adequacy project Jon M. Hippe and Hans Gunnar Vøien An analysis of future benefits from public and private pension schemes The Norwegian country study to the OECD pension adequacy project Fafo-report 2014:21 © Fafo 2014 ISBN 978-82-324-0115-4 ISSN 0801-6143 2 Contents Preface .................................................................................................................................. 5 Chapter 1 Introduction – pension readiness in Norway ....................................................... 6 Chapter 2 Main elements in the Norwegian pensions system .............................................. 9 2.1 The national pensions system – peoples pension ............................................................ 9 2.2 Private pensions in Norway ............................................................................................ 10 2.3 Collectively negotiated labour market pensions (AFP) .................................................... 13 2.4 The public private mix ................................................................................................... 14 Chapter 3 Methodological framework ............................................................................... 15 3.1 Description of the framework ........................................................................................ 15 3.2 Pension coverage and pension calculations ................................................................... 19 3.3 Retirement savings adequacy indicators ........................................................................ 25 Chapter 4 Public and private pension mix – coverage and pension levels ........................... 27 4.1 The working age population and their pension accrual ................................................ 28 4.2 Pension packages and replacement rates at 67 ............................................................. 34 4.3 Variation in replacements rates by age – the life expectancy risk transfer mechanism .......................................................................................................................... 41 4.4 The profile of pension payments ................................................................................... 43 Chapter 5 Variation in replacement levels labour market exit at 67 .................................. 50 5.1 A point of departure: Variation in replacement rates – population 35-61 ...................... 52 5.2 Replacement rates – born 1953 ..................................................................................... 57 5.3 Replacement rates – born 1965 ..................................................................................... 61 5.4 Replacement rates – born 1975 ..................................................................................... 65 5.5 Comparing replacement rates across age groups ......................................................... 68 Chapter 6 Alternative scenarios for labour market withdrawal .......................................... 75 6.1 Retirement at 62 ............................................................................................................ 76 6.2 Pension indicators at 70 years ....................................................................................... 86 6.3 Comparing pension levels by withdrawal age ................................................................ 93 Chapter 7 Income distribution among future pensioners ................................................ 100 7.1 Income distribution ..................................................................................................... 100 7.2 Poverty and low income ............................................................................................... 107 3 Chapter 8 Individual pension savings, return in DC plans, tax-effects and the importance of private wealth .................................................................................... 111 8.1 Return on DC pension capital ...................................................................................... 112 8.2 Pension levels before and after tax .............................................................................. 114 8.3 Individual pension savings ........................................................................................... 115 8.4 The importance of private wealth ................................................................................ 116 Chapter 9 Findings and conclusions ............................................................................... 119 9.1 Main findings............................................................................................................... 119 9.2 Concluding remarks .................................................................................................... 123 References ......................................................................................................................... 127 4 Preface The recent reform of the Norwegian national pensions system and the growing role of occupa- tional pension schemes make it increasingly important to understand the impact this will have on future pensions. This report offers an analysis of replacement rates in Norway, i.e. income levels in old age among future Norwegian pensioners. It asks a quite simple but technically ad- vanced question: Are people saving enough for their retirement? The report is commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs. The anal- ysis is conducted by The Fafo Research Foundation at its Institute for Labour and Social Research in cooperation with actuaries from Lillevold & Partners, a group of actuaries special- ized in modeling and calculating the accrual of pension rights. Pål Lillevold and Hans Gunnar Vøien at Lillevold & Partners have developed specific pension models in order to calculate and estimate all elements of individual pension accruals in Norway in both public and private pen- sion arrangements. These calculations are conducted through the use of registered historical income data and estimates of future income as inputs to the actuarial models for each relevant pension scheme. Fafo and Lillevold & Partners together developed the methods and design used in this report and conducted the calculations in close cooperation. This study serves as an input from Norway to the OECD project on retirement savings adequa- cy. The Norwegian research team has worked closely together with OECD representatives in order to provide calculations as consistent as possible with the OECD requirements. While many other OECD country studies are based on survey data, this Norwegian analysis is based on register data of both income and labour market positions. This approach offers greater op- portunities for precise estimates of pension income. However, this approach has some limita- tions, in particular that the Norwegian data is individual and not household based. Nevertheless, this is the first time that all public and private elements in the overall Norwegian pension system are estimated through actual individual historical and prospected future income data. We would like to thank Stéphanie Payet from the OECD and Arne Magnus Christensen from the Norwegian Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs for very useful comments. Jon M. Hippe Project leader, April 2014 5 Chapter 1 Introduction – pension readiness in Norway This study of Norwegian pension readiness is a part of a larger ongoing comparative OECD study which seeks to compare the proportion of people prepared for retirement across coun- tries. The OECD-project - the OECD Retirement Savings Adequacy study - has as its ambition to model the retirement readiness of people currently of working age (OECD May 2013). The common method in the country specific studies is to measure what people have already accu- mulated in both actual pension assets as well as in pensions rights (pay as you go or partly fund- ed) and then to complement these already collected pension rights and assets with what people may accumulate from now on and until the day they retire. The calculations will build on many different assumptions or scenarios regarding what may actually happen during this period as well as on their actual pension behavior. In order to estimate future income, several factors need to be taken into account, such as the regulation of pension rights, links to wage growth or inflation (discount rate), return on capital as well as retirement age. In this Norwegian analysis we have access to register based data of the Norwegian population in their working age with information on historical income as well as their labour market position. We have constructed models of pension accumulation in the different schemes and combina- tion of schemes available to individuals in Norway. By knowing where people work, if a com- pany is covered by a collective wage agreement and combining this with historical income in- formation as well as estimates of future income developments, one can conduct relatively precise estimates of pension accrual. In this way, and following as far as possible the OECD requirements, the ambition of this study is to estimate the future pension conditions for the present Norwegian working population. In order to gain better insight into future pension conditions we will look at pensions levels (defined as retirement replacement
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