RB Travis Etienne, Clemson

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2021

NFL Draft 2021 Scouting Report: RB Travis Etienne, Clemson

*Our RB grades can and will change as more information comes in from Pro Day workouts, leaked Wonderlic test results, etc. We will update ratings as new info becomes available.

*We use the term “Power RB” to separate physically bigger, more between-the-tackles–capable RBs from our “speed RBs” group. “Speed RBs” are physically smaller, but much faster/quicker, and less likely to flourish between the tackles.

Dot connection…

Travis Etienne most often gets compared to Alvin Kamara. I kinda thought that might be the case/comp a year or so ago…but with a deeper dive, I don’t think I agree with that simple comparison.

Kamara is likely going to be 10+ pounds heavier than Etienne was comparing their entering-the-draft years. That’s a big difference right off the bat. They may track with similar speed and style of game, but I think Kamara is shiftier, a better pure receiver, and does all that at a bigger size than Etienne is at.

In general, Kamara has a better physical profile than Etienne all the way around.

Oh, and also…I don’t know if Etienne is as good as the football world is making him out to be.

Now, before I take some shots at Etienne, let me say – I didn’t ‘get’ Kamara coming out of college. I didn’t think he’d matter. We graded him average/below average for the NFL. Going in to 2017, I perceived the NFL trend/desire was either (a) big, bruising backs with athleticism being the differentiator among them. Everyone wanted 220+ pound backs with speed. Or (b) some were willing to consider smaller-than-220-pound RBs if they ran extra fast…like in the 4.2s, 4.3s – otherwise, we called them ‘3rd-down backs’ or ‘change of pace’ backs…and they were usually like 205 pounds or smaller…scat backs.

Kamara came along and led a new revolution of not-220-pound RB prospects – RBs who were 210+ pounds and didn’t run 4.2s/4.3s but were very shifty and were great pass catchers/quasi-WRs. I missed it on Kamara. I saw the error of my ways soon after. I have shifted/updated my scouting models to not be biased against Kamara types, but to be willing to look for them and honor them, where they can be found.

With that newfound respect (over the past couple of years) said…I don’t see ‘it’ or ‘that’ with Travis Etienne. I see a very plain-Jane, effective, solid, useful NFL RB…not a three-down franchise back, not a next McCaffrey/Kamara. Which means ‘not a 1st-round pick’ either…or he shouldn’t be.

What’s so special about Etienne? Don’t tell me about his stats in college (we’ll get to this in more detail) because every top RB prospect and every middle-of-the-road RB prospect had big numbers in college.

College Football Metrics| 1

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2021

Etienne doing so with the benefit of the Clemson O-Line, passing game, QB, coaching…it’s not a huge feather in his cap. It raises suspicion more than adulation for me.

What’s so special about Etienne? Not his size…his size is forgettable at 5’11”-6’0” and 200-205 pounds. Not his hands…he’s solid as a pass catcher, like 10-15 other RB prospects might be from this draft alone. Not his speed…if he’s a 4.4s runner (and he’s not 4.3s), then so are many RBs in the NFL at his smaller size. If he’s 4.5s…then at 200-205 pounds, we got a very generic RB prospect on our hands here.

Let’s look at the comp just to Najee Harris, since some people have Etienne ranked way above Harris…

It’s possible that Harris is 2”+ taller, 25+ pounds bigger, with bigger hands, way longer arms (big catch radius), is a much better pass catcher in general, and runs about the same speed and agility as Etienne…which would be terrific for Harris if he is with/close to Etienne’s spoeed despite carrying 25+ more pounds.

It’s possible there is not one area of scouting research or data that doesn’t favor Harris over Etienne. So, why do people rank Etienne over Harris? I have no idea, but people have scouting/ranking of players wrong all the time. Being wrong is the norm, not the exception in mainstream player scouting. Think of how ridiculous it was to see a prospect profile like Jonathan Taylor…and yet Clyde Edwards-Helaire and D’Andre Swift were taken well ahead of Taylor in the 2020 NFL Draft. If we re-drafted 2020 again…anyone think that Taylor wouldn’t be the top back taken with a year of NFL tape to look at?

I watched Etienne on tape, and the more I watched, the less impressed I became. Sure, watch him roll up mediocre/bad ACC teams and drool…that’s not NFL projection reality tape. Watch Etienne against Ohio State and Notre Dame and LSU – and you see problems…visually and in the numbers (which we’re about to dig into). You cannot run Etienne in the interior of an NFL defense at 200-205 pounds and expect to be a big-time rushing offense in the NFL – he’s too easy to bring down against legit college defenses and then for sure in the NFL. You can see it on the tape against Ohio State two years in a row, much less against LSU (2019-20 title game) and Notre Dame 2x in 2020. You see a smaller lead back getting bottled up often on the inside.

Etienne is not agile enough to kick everything outside and then doesn’t have the jets to accelerate past everyone once away from them…not for the pro level. He’s not terrible or incompetent…just very average with decent straight-line speed.

Can you think of the great NFL RBs of today who are purposed lead backs for their teams who are closer to 200 pounds and are 5’11”+ (so not bowling ball built at a lower weight 200-pounders at 5’7”/5’8”)? There was one from 2020 season that comes to my mind/shows up at a glance…Myles Gaskin. 7th- round draft pick, least threatening lead RB in the NFL in 2020, Myles Gaskin. How much is Etienne worth if he’s a little quicker version of Myles Gaskin?

Can Etienne add 5+ pounds and play closer to 210 pounds and be better suited for the NFL? Maybe. If he tests at 4.48-4.50 40-time at 202 pounds…and then adds 8 pounds and becomes a 4.5+ runner for

College Football Metrics| 2

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2021

sure…then he becomes a slower Miles Sanders or maybe a slower Cam Akers-ish runner. As a slower Miles Sanders…what is Etienne worth? As a Cam Akers or Myles Gaskin-like runner…what is he worth in the NFL Draft?

Maybe Etienne can add the muscle, keep his current speed/shiftiness, and draw closer to a Kamara physical profile…just not as shifty or WR-like as Kamara.

I just don’t see many paths for Etienne to be a franchise changing RB…and if he does, he needs to add weight/muscle and have it not affect his speed/agility. Possible, but why pay heavily to find out? It’s going to cost some NFL team a heavy draft pick to find out.

Off the field, Etienne seems fine. No character issues. Not the brightest or most engaging guy I’ve ever been around/observed in interviews, but nice enough. He was an ACC Honor Roll player off and on, so no real issues there. His background check didn’t repel me or draw me closer to him.

In the end, I see a below-average sized RB with moderate athleticism who struggles running the ball against top opponents because he lacks size/bulk and higher-end athleticism…which makes me wonder why he’s ranked/respected so highly? Hey, anything Clemson… Anything Alabama and Clemson get a +2 tier levels of draft respect because they are ‘known’/’seen’. How Damien Harris and Darrell Henderson have become forgotten while people worship/crave for Etienne to please join ‘their’ team is beyond me.

Travis Etienne, Through the Lens of Our RB Scouting Algorithm:

In the past two seasons, Etienne has had great overall season tallies of output. However, winnow that down to his games against LSU (title game 2019-20), Ohio State (2020 and 2021 playoff games) and Notre Dame (2x in 2020 season), and Texas A&M and South Carolina (2019 SEC matchups) and his rushing numbers in those seven games…

94 carries, 400 rushing yards, 7 TDs total…13.4 carries, 57.1 rush yards, 1.0 TDs per game.

A measly 4.26 yards per carry.

Six of the 7 games, under 80 yards rushing.

Five of the 7 games under 55 yards rushing.

Those are piss-poor numbers for a guy who some consider the best RB prospect in this Draft.

College Football Metrics| 3

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2021

If you say, “Well, what about his receiving?” I’d say…”So what?”. Good catch counts because Trevor Lawrence is a bubble screen master and dumped off easy passes to Etienne…great! A hundred other RBs could make those catches and yards.

Three CFB playoff games the past two seasons…

30 carries, 146 rushing yards, 3 TDs total…which is 10.0 carries, 48.7 rush yards (4.9 yards per carry), 1.0 rush TDs per game.

Again, very weak rushing output in general and yards per carry numbers for a ‘top guy’ with a great O- line and offense. The party was definitely lowered/ended for Etienne when Clemson stepped away from stepping on ACC opponents.

2021 Combine/Pro Day measurables projections…

5’11.5”/202, 9.5” hands

4.45-4.50 40-time, 6.90-7.00 three-cone

15-17 bench press, 10’+ broad jump, 35”+ vertical

The Historical RB Prospects to Whom Travis Etienne Most Compares Within Our System:

If Etienne is a better version of Darrynton Evans – how valuable is he? If Etienne is another Miles Sanders, a smaller version…is that a 1st-round franchise RB? I dare say ‘not’.

RB RB- RB- Last First College Yr H H W Speed Agility Power Score Re ru Metric Metric Metric 7.478 7.89 6.50 Etienne Travis Clemson 2021 5 11.5 202 8.68 8.51 5.72 7.001 7.02 6.22 Evans Darrynton Appalach St. 2020 5 10.1 203 7.80 6.17 7.65 7.226 6.70 5.29 Sanders Miles Penn St. 2019 5 10.5 211 4.68 7.17 7.11 6.230 3.13 4.18 Homer Travis Miami 2019 5 10.3 201 4.52 2.13 4.44 5.702 5.72 4.82 Hilliard Dontrell Tulane 2018 5 10.5 202 3.52 1.73 7.57

College Football Metrics| 4

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2021

*A score of 8.50+ is where we see a stronger correlation of RBs going on to become NFL good/great/elite. A score of 10.00+ is more rarefied air in our system and indicates a greater probability of becoming an elite NFL RB. All of the RB ratings are based on a 0–10 scale, but a player can score negative, or above a 10.0 in certain instances. Overall rating/score = A combination of several on-field performance measures, including refinement for the strength of opponents faced, mixed with all the physical measurement metrics – then compared/rated historically within our database and formulas. More of a traditional three-down search – runner, blocker, and receiver. *RB-Re score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to identify and quantify a prospect's receiving skills even deeper than in our original formulas. RB prospects can now make it/thrive in the NFL strictly based on their receiving skills – it is an individual attribute sought out for the NFL and no longer dismissed or overlooked. Our rating combines a study of their receiving numbers in college in relation to their offense and opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with hand size measurables, etc. *RB-Ru score = Our new formula/rating that attempts to classify and quantify an RB prospect's ability strictly as a runner of the ball. Our rating combines a study of their rushing numbers in college in relation to their offense and strength of opponents, as well as profiling size-speed-agility along with various size measurables, etc. Raw Speed Metric = A combination of several speed and size measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile. Agility Metric = A combination of several speed and agility measurements from the NFL Combine, judged along with physical size profile, and then compared/rated historically within our database and scouting formulas. This is a rating strictly for RBs of a similar/bigger size profile.

2021 NFL Draft Outlook:

Etienne is a top 30-50 prospect for most rankers right now…more 1st-round than not. I think if he participates in the Combine/Pro Day, and his size comes up short and his speed-agility is just average- good, then Etienne is headed to the 2nd-round. If Miles Sanders, D’Andre Swift, and Jonathan Taylor are 2nd-rounders…then Etienne should be (really, he should be a 3rd+ rounder).

If I were an NFL GM, I have little interest in Etienne in general…and then if I know he’s a top 50 prospect, I’m not even wasting time or money doing background checks because there is no way I’d pay that price for that sized/talented of an RB.

College Football Metrics| 5

2021 NFL DRAFT SCOUTING REPORT

FEBRUARY 14, 2021

NFL Outlook:

Going to go top 50 and have big expectations, and then like a Miles Sanders…those expectations will fade away into a yawn and in 2-3 years people are looking for other RB options to pair with or replace Etienne.

Etienne is going to be fine/solid enough, and he will get plenty of chances that other more talented, lesser-named guys won’t…so Etienne will have a career, I just don’t see it as all that exciting…and there’s some possible ‘bust’ signals here. I think he’ll fine/solid/useful more than a bust.

All rights reserved. All content is for entertainment purposes only and TFA is not responsible or liable for personal adverse outcomes nor are any game results or forecasting guaranteed. Past results do not predict future outcomes. We are not held liable for any personal loses incurred. We are solely here to produce and provide content for recreational purposes. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, email the publisher at [email protected]

Signature______Date______2/14/2021

College Football Metrics| 6