Myanmar Post-Disaster Needs Assessment of Floods and Landslides July–September 2015
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Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized Public Disclosure Authorized JULY–SEPTEMBER 2015 JULY–SEPTEMBER AND LANDSLIDES OF FLOODS NEEDS ASSESSMENT POST-DISASTER MYANMAR Government oftheUnionMyanmar 103631 MYANMAR POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES JULY–SEPTEMBER 2015 Government of the Union of Myanmar Currency unit = K (Myanmar kyat) Fiscal year = April 1–March 31 Exchange rate USD1 = K 1,287.40 ------ Published by : Government of the Union of Myanmar Dated : November 2015 Copyedit : Anne Himmelfarb Design : Prodigy Cover Photos : Front cover by UNICEF Myo Thame; Back cover by Michael Bonte-Grapentin. Disclaimer : This report summarizes the findings of the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment of Floods and Landslides that occurred in Myanmar between September 24 and October 12, 2015. The report reflects information gathered in this period of time and does not take into consideration flooding or landslide events beyond September 30, 2015. Supported and facilitated by: Financial support from: Technical inputs by: TABLE OF CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xi FOREWORD xiii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY xvi INTRODUCTION 1 Country Context 2 2015 Floods and Landslides 4 Response from the Government, Development Partners, and Communities 10 Assessment Methodology 11 PRODUCTIVE SECTORS 14 Agriculture, Livestock, and Fisheries 16 Water Resource Management (Irrigation and Flood Control) 28 Industry and Commerce 38 Banking and Finance 47 SOCIAL SECTORS 60 Health 62 Education 73 INFRASTRUCTURE SECTORS 84 Housing and Settlements 86 Electricity 104 Water and Sanitation 114 Transport 125 Communications 133 CROSS-CUTTING SECTORS 144 Gender 146 Environment 157 Disaster Risk Management 165 ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS 174 Macroeconomic Impact 176 Employment and Livelihoods Impact 182 Poverty, Social Impact, and Social Protection 188 Disaster Impact on Quality of Life 200 RECOVERY STRATEGY AND WAY FORWARD 212 ANNEXES 221 Annex 1. Special Acknowledgments and List of Contributors 222 Annex 2. List of References 225 Annex 3. Electricity 237 Annex 4. Water Resource Management (Irrigation and Flood Control) 241 Annex 5. Disaster Risk Management 246 Annex 6. Poverty and Social Impact Assessment 248 List of Tables Table 1. Summary of disaster effects by sector (million K) xix Table 2. Summary of estimated disaster effects by states and regions (million K) xxi Table 3. Summary of estimated disaster effects per capita (K/person) xxii Table 4. Summary of recovery and reconstruction needs by sector (million K) xxvi Table 5. Quantification of damages and losses by subsector (million K) 20 Table 6. Geographic distribution of damages and losses (million K) 20 Table 7. Recovery and reconstruction needs (million K) 23 Table 8. Quantification of damages and losses (million K) 32 Table 9. Geographic distribution of damage and losses (million K) 32 Table 10. Recovery needs (million K) 35 Table 11. Key industrial and commercial activities located in affected states/regions 39 Table 12 Estimated length of business recovery (median response) 41 Table 13. Estimated total damage and loss (million K) 42 Table 14. Geographic distribution of damage and losses (million K) 42 Table 15. Recovery and reconstruction needs: short term 44 Table 16. Recovery and reconstruction needs: medium to long term 45 Table 17. Rural access to finance in Myanmar 50 Table 18. Disaster impacts per subsector (million K) 51 Table 19. Financial sector recovery and reconstruction needs 59 Table 20. Health care status in disaster-affected areas (as of October 1, 2015) 65 Table 21. Quantification of damages and losses (million K) 66 Table 22. Damage and losses data (million K) 66 Table 23. Detailed recovery and reconstruction initiatives 68 Table 24. Pre-disaster enrollment rates for Myanmar 74 Table 25. Physical damage to schools 75 Table 26. Quantification of damages and losses (million K) 78 Table 27. Recovery and reconstruction needs for education sector (million K) 80 Table 28. Comparison of housing types in affected townships versus all townships (percent) 87 Table 29. Geographic distribution of damage to housing 91 (estimated based on total damage counts) Table 30. Public and private damage and losses in housing and human settlements 94 by cost category (million K) Table 31. Geographic distribution of public and private damage and losses in housing 96 and human settlements (million K) Table 32. Proposed housing and settlements recovery needs, activities, and budget 99 (million K) Table 33. Cost assistance assumptions used to calculate housing recovery needs 101 Table 34. Type of damages in four worst-affected states and regions 106 Table 35. Value of damage by state and region 107 Table 36. Estimated losses (million K) 108 Table 37. Summary of damages and losses by state, region, and subsector (million K) 109 Table 38. Recovery and reconstruction plan for the electricity sector 111 Table 39. Union-level access to sanitation and water supply (percentage) 116 Table 40. Quantification of damages and losses (million K) 118 Table 41. Geographic distribution of damage and losses (million K) 120 Table 42. Change in access levels to improved water and sanitation 120 in the affected townships Table 43. Recovery and reconstruction needs (million K) 122 Table 44. Summary of annual domestic passenger and freight volumes 125 by transport mode, 2013 Table 45. Quantification of damages and losses in transport sector (million K) 129 Table 46. Distribution of damage and loss in transport sector (million K) 129 Table 47. Recovery and reconstruction needs for transport sector (million K) 131 Table 48. Communications sector and market structure in Myanmar 133 Table 49. Summary of estimated damage and losses in the communications sector 136 (million K) Table 50. Estimated recovery and reconstruction costs over a 4-year period (million K) 139 Table 51. Short-term actions 140 Table 52. Medium-term needs and actions 141 Table 53. Amount of unpaid family labor, males versus females (hours per day) 147 Table 54. Number and proportion of deaths in flood and landslide disaster 148 Table 55. Damage and loss to livestock in affected states and regions 151 Table 56. Damage and loss in housing faced by female-headed households 152 Table 57. Recovery needs: costing of priority activities 154 Table 58. Recovery and reconstruction needs (million K) 162 Table 59. Budget of the Relief and Resettlement Department, 2009/2010–2015/2016 166 (million K) Table 60. Geographic distribution of damage and losses by state and region (million K) 170 Table 61. Recovery and reconstruction needs (million K) 172 Table 62. Damage and losses: Cyclone Nargis vs. 2015 floods 178 Table 63. Impact on GDP 179 Table 64. Recovery needs (million K) 186 Table 65. Population in affected townships 188 Table 66. Dependency ratios in affected townships 189 Table 67. Percentage of farmers and casual farm laborers in affected areas 190 Table 68. Prevalence of moderate underweight (<-2 standard deviation) 191 Table 69. Pre- and post-disaster housing data in affected states and regions 201 Table 70. Pre- and post-disaster housing index for affected states and regions 201 Table 71. Pre- and post-disaster education index for affected states and regions 202 Table 72. Pre- and post-disaster access to improved water supply 203 in affected states and regions Table 73. Pre- and post-disaster water supply index for affected states and regions 203 Table 74. Pre- and post-disaster access to improved sanitation facilities 204 in affected states and regions Table 75. Pre- and post-disaster sanitation index for affected states and regions 204 Table 76. Pre- and post-disaster data on connection to the electrical grid 205 in affected states and regions Table 77. Pre- and post-disaster electricity index for affected states and regions 205 Table 78. Pre- and post-disaster personal income index in disaster-affected 206 states and regions Table 79. Equal-weight composite quality-of-life index for pre- and post-disaster 206 conditions in all affected states and regions Table 80. Post-disaster decline in quality-of-life index by state/region 208 Table 81. Summary of recovery and reconstruction needs by sector (million K) 214 Table 82. Electricity access rate by state/region of Myanmar 237 Table 83. Energy balance (million kWh) 237 Table 84. Fuel-wise generation position of Myanmar as of 2015 238 Table 85. Electricity tariffs (established in April 2014 and current as of April 2015) 238 Table 86. List of impacted houses 239 Table 87. Rivers in Myanmar 241 Table 88. Agencies with water resources management responsibilities 242 Table 89. Myanmar laws and policies affecting water resources management 243 Table 90. Housing quality 250 Table 91. Debt and overindebtedness 254 Table 92. Program option summary and financing requirements 263 (six-month benefit regime) Table 93. Proposed program design 265 Table 94. Options for the medium-term flood recovery cash-for-work program 266 Table 95. Cost of the flood recovery cash-for-work program (medium and long term) 266 List of Figures Figure 1. Most-affected sectors of social and economic activity xviii in terms of damage and production losses Figure 2. Ownership of disaster effects by public and private entities (million K) xx Figure 3. Most-affected states and regions in terms of damage and production losses xxi Figure 4. Per capita distribution of the disaster effects xxii Figure 5. Disaster effects by state and region (million K) xxiii Figure 6. Disaster effects per capita by state and region (K per person) xxiii Figure 7. Disaster losses as a percentage of 2014/2015 GDP xxiv Figure 8. Disaster impact on quality of life (percentage change of quality of life xxv indicator before and after the disaster) Figure 9. Settlement areas inundated by district (percentage) 4 Figure 10. 2015 flood levels compared with historic floods 5 Figure 11. 2015 flood peak discharge return period analysis 6 Figure 12. Rainfall in Hakha in July 2015 7 Figure 13.