Three Papers on the Political Attitudes of Evangelical Protestants at the Beginning of the New Millennium

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Three Papers on the Political Attitudes of Evangelical Protestants at the Beginning of the New Millennium THREE PAPERS ON THE POLITICAL ATTITUDES OF EVANGELICAL PROTESTANTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE NEW MILLENNIUM A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Christine Chu-Ning Kim, M.P.P. Washington, DC May 24, 2017 Copyright 2017 by Christine Chu-Ning Kim All Rights Reserved ii THREE PAPERS ON THE POLITICAL ATTITUDES OF EVANGELICAL PROTESTANTS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE MILLENNIUM Christine Chu-Ning Kim, M.P.P. Thesis Advisor: Clyde Wilcox, Ph.D. ABSTRACT The politics of evangelical Protestants in America impacts its broader political landscape. For one, evangelical membership remains steady at one in four Americans, even as other religious traditions have declined. Second, prior research has consistently found a correlation between evangelicals and conservative politics, particularly regarding their political attitudes on social issues and partisanship. However, there are plausible expectations, such as cohort replacement, broader cultural influences, and the recent racial and ethnic diversification among evangelicals, that these relationships may be changing, but they have yet to be empirically and rigorously tested. Consisting of three stand-alone papers, this dissertation seeks, then, to answer this broader research question. In the first paper, I address a theoretical and methodological gap in the existing literature on the young evangelicals liberalizing thesis; I propose possible explanations for a Millennial political cohort, then robustly test the liberalizing thesis. Contrary to popular conception, Millennial evangelicals do not constitute a distinctive political generation, but they have moved away from the Gen X cohort’s particularly Republican identification and anti-abortion position. In the second paper, I ask if the cultural tide that has lifted many Americans’ support for marriage equality has moved evangelicals’ stance as well. The results suggest that evangelicals across the board have shifted. To explain, I offer the theories of “dual citizenship,” that evangelicals are navigating a course between their spiritual and civic roles on the issue of same-sex marriage, and religious reinforcement, both of which receive empirical support. In the third paper, I iii build a multi-level theory of immigration attitudes at the intersection of religion and race/ethnicity, as one-quarter of evangelicals are now non-white, on whom the research is only emerging. My results support the “dual conversion” hypothesis that the acculturation and religious conversion experiences may blend to form distinctive political views among non-white evangelicals from relatively recent immigrant backgrounds. Together, these findings suggest discernible shifts in evangelical politics, with implications for American politics in the coming decades. vi ACKNOLEDGEMENTS I am indebted to Professor Clyde Wilcox for his guidance throughout my graduate education as well as his pioneering research, writing, and teaching on religion and politics, which first inspired me to pursue this subfield. I am also thankful to Professors Jon Ladd and Laura Olson for their generous support of my project. Many friends have helped and encouraged me along the way—it takes a village to write a dissertation! I am grateful to all the great friends at Great Commission Communiy Church, Churchill Road Elementary School MIP, and Carlin Sympoisum. Thank you for your encouragement and prayers these many years! To Professor Becky Hsu, I am especially grateful for your advice, generosity, and friendship. To my in-law family—Iryung Kim, Dr. Yong I. Kim, Elizabeth Kim, David and Jennifer Kim—your faithful support, prayers, and babysitting throughout these last nine years are a continual blessing. I am so grateful for each of you in my life! To my children, Samantha, Pippa, and Luke, who have not known a day in their young lives without Mommy doing school work—you are my joy and delight. To my husband, Bernard, I could not have done this without you—you are my rock, the love of my life. And to my parents, Grace and Edward Chu, I owe everything to your love and sacrifices; you inspire me and show me what is possible. Most importantly, Soli Deo gloria. Christine Phillipians 1:6 vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Paper One: The Coming Generation: The Politics of Millennial Evangelicals ..................1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................1 Literature Review & Theoretical Expectations................................................................3 Data & Methods .............................................................................................................13 Findings..........................................................................................................................21 Discussion & Conclusion ...............................................................................................36 Paper Two: Dual Citizens, Anchored but Unmoored: Evangelicals’ Attitude toward Same-Sex Marriage, 2004-2014 ........................................................................................42 Introduction .....................................................................................................................42 Literature Review............................................................................................................43 Evangelicals & Same-Sex Marriage ...............................................................................46 Data & Methods ..............................................................................................................53 Findings...........................................................................................................................57 Discussion & Conclusion ................................................................................................71 Paper Three: Doubly Converted: Immigration Attitudes at the Nexus of Evangelicalism and Race/Ethnicity .............................................................................................................79 Introduction .....................................................................................................................79 Religion & Immigration Attitudes ..................................................................................81 Race/Ethnicity, Nativity, & Immigration Attitudes ........................................................83 Data & Measures.............................................................................................................92 Methods...........................................................................................................................96 v Findings...........................................................................................................................97 Discussion & Conclusion ..............................................................................................110 Bibliography ....................................................................................................................117 vi LIST OF TABLES Table 1.1. Evangelical Age Gap over the Decades ............................................................22 Table 1.2. Young Evangelicals Cohort Gap .....................................................................23 Table 1.3. Evangelical Gap among Young White Adults over the Decades .....................24 Table 1.4. Hierarchial Age-Period-Cohort Cross-Classified Random-Effects Models– Age, Period, & Cohort Effects–White Evangelicals ..........................................................26 Table 2.1. Ordered Logisitic Regression Predicting Same-Sex Marriage Attitudes, 2006- 2014....................................................................................................................................61 Table 2.2. Ordinary Least Squares 10-Year Slope Estimate (Average Annual Change), 2004-2014 ..........................................................................................................................65 Table 2.3. Bivariate Ordinary Least Squares, Shifts in Mean Score among Evangelicals, 2004/6-2014, by Religiosity...............................................................................................65 Table 3.1. Detailed Views on Immigration, 2008-2014 ....................................................98 Table 3.2. Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicting Immigration Views, General Population ........................................................................................................................101 Table 3.3. Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicting Immigration Views, All Evangelicals .....................................................................................................................105 Table 3.4. Multinomial Logistic Regression Predicting Immigration Views, Latinos ....109 v LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1A. Partisan Age Gap, White Evangelicals, 1972-2014 .....................................22 Figure 1.1B. Ideological Age Gap, White Evangelicals, 1974-2014.................................29 Figure 1.1C. Abortion and Gay Rights Tolerance Age Gap, White Evangelicals, 1973/4- 2014....................................................................................................................................31 Figure 1.2A. Partisan and Ideological Cohort Gap, Young Adult White Evangelicals,
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