Chinese run-of-the-river hydropower dams generating not only electrical tension
Setting out the consequences of China’s activities on the run-of-the-river hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river for the region of north-eastern India
Final Interdisciplinary Report Interdisciplinary Project - June 2nd, 2017 Word count: 8095
Supervisors: Anneke ter Schure and Andres Verzijl Annabelle Gielen, Marije Doolaard, Robyn Jansma, Marle de Jong Abstract
China has plans to extend the Zangmu Hydropower Station from one to four dams, which raised concern in downstream countries as India. In this interdisciplinary research, the consequences of the expansion of the Zangmu Hydropower Station are explored by the use of individual interviews and a literature study. Theories from Communication Sciences, Human Geography, Biology and Earth Sciences were used to give insight into the origins and impacts of the problem. The insights were then integrated to form a new understanding of the problem and its consequences. This research assesses the ecological impacts of the realization of three more “run-of-the-river” dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo on the local population of the north-eastern Indian states Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, India. The hydro-ecological impacts are expected to be negligible for the region of north-eastern India. Moreover, India has its concerns since China does not share any specifics about the dams. This lack of communication from China might be explained by a “power play” to control both water resources and maintain its hegemonic position over India. However, China’s main interest by constructing the three dams is expected to be not the generation of hegemony but the generation of hydroelectricity.
Keywords: hydropower energy, hydro hegemony, environmental impact assessment, power relations, social ecological system, framing.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 1 Content
Acknowledgements 3
1. Introduction 4
2. Theoretical framework 6 2.1 Social-ecological systems 6 2.2 Hydro hegemony 6 2.3 Framing and agenda-setting 7 2.4 Environmental Impact Assessment 8 2.5 Data Management Table 10
3. Methods and integrated framework 11 3.1 Time frame 12 3.2 Integrated framework 12
4. Results 13 4.1 Stakeholder involved 13 4.2 Specifications of the dams 13 4.3 Sediment transport and water quality on local population 15 4.3.1 Sediment transport 15 4.3.2 Aquatic life 16 4.3.3 Water quality 16 4.3.4 Consequences for the local population 16 4.4 Environmental consequences and power relations 17 4.4.1 Concerns as field of conflict 17 4.4.2 Power asymmetries 18 4.5 Media framing and power relations 18
5. Conclusion, discussion and recommendations 20
References 21
Appendix 25 Elaborated interview with Erik Mosselman Elaborated interview with Karen Meijer Elaborated interview with Yumiko Yasuda
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 2 Acknowledgements
In front of you lies the thesis “Chinese hydropower dams generating not only electrical tension”, a paper which will set out the consequences of China’s activities on the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river for the region of north-eastern India. This paper is a thesis of the course Interdisciplinary Project at the University of Amsterdam. This project was conducted from February 2017 till June 2017. Advice given by Erik Mosselman, Karen Meijer and Yumiko Yasuda has been a great help in this study. They have given new insights in this problem, each in their own specialization and we thank them for the interviews. Besides this, thanks should be given to Anneke ter Schure, our first supervisor, for her feedback as well as Andres Verzijl, for his useful and constructive recommendations on this project and during the presentations.
Annabelle Gielen, Marije Doolaard, Robyn Jansma, Marle de Jong
Amsterdam, May 2017
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 3 1. Introduction
The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra-Jamuna River is one of the world’s greatest transboundary rivers (Franco et al., 2014). The Yarlung Tsangpo originates in Tibet and flows through southern Tibet before the river makes a U-turn and enters the easternmost states of India where it unites with the Brahmaputra. After flowing through the Indian states Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the river enters Bangladesh, where it is joined by the Ganges and Meghna (Franco et al., 2014; Ramachandran, 2015). According to Ramachandran (2015), the Brahmaputra is known as the world’s largest delta and highly important for the surrounding countries and ecosystems. The countries China and India are respectively the world’s first and second countries in terms of population, and millions of people are living along the Brahmaputra river basin (Ahmed et al., 2013). Therefore, for both China and India, the Brahmaputra is of special importance. According to Biba (2014), the river is an important component for the Indian population because it plays a large role in providing enough available water. However, China is planning to expand their hydropower performances along the Brahmaputra by building more hydropower dams (Biba, 2014). In most recent years, there is a growing interest in this river because of its high altitude gradient and therewith potential hydropower energy (Chang, Liu & Zhou, 2010; Biba, 2014). In November 2014, China has built the first hydropower dam in the Yarlung Tsangpo river and it plans to continue their ‘Zangmu Hydropower Station’ with expansion of three dams (The Economic Times, 2016). The project can be seen in Figure 1.
Figure 1: Schematic overview of Zangmu Hydropower Station (Ramachandran, 2015).
Taken together, the ever increasing population density in both countries and the competitive initiatives concerning the Brahmaputra river lead to a complex problem which has a great impact on the relationship between China and India (Mahapatra & Ratha, 2016). The complexity will be discussed further in the introduction and the report. On the one hand China is very optimistic about their hydropower plan and assures that the project does not involve storage or diversion of water. China states that the Zangmu dam is a “run-of-the- river” power generating project (shortly “ROR”) (IANS, 2010), which means that water is not diverted or grabbed, although this is still possible (Douglas, 2007). On the other hand, being a downstream country, India is worried about this project since the Brahmaputra is highly important for the daily life of the people and an important part of the cultural life (Ramachandran, 2015). India sees several risks regarding the project, since people who are living in the north-eastern part of India can become vulnerable as they depend on the water and on the ecosystem services of the Brahmaputra (The Economic Times, 2016). For example, the Indian population highly depend on the river in the river for irrigation (FAO, 2011).
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 4 Ecological changes regarding this river could therefore affect the local population near the river negatively. Moreover, a concern of India is that there are no bilateral or multilateral treaties on the water use and it believes that China can turn the water in the river into a political weapon (Mahapatra & Ratha,, 2016). Historically, no relevant water treaties have been arranged between China and India so far (Yasuda, May 8th 2017). Consequently, the extension of the dams project may be considered as a complex problem since there are different actors with their own interests and politics. Both India and China have their own views on how to deal with the amount of water which could be used for hydropower. This refers to the complex concept ‘observer dependence’ (Rammelt, 2017b). India and China have different interests, and both want to use the water in their own beneficial way. Consequently, analysts predict that ‘water wars’ could break out between China and India, because both countries see themselves as a regional and global power and do not want to damage this reputation. As a result of this, there is a lack of communication about the water management of the river between the two countries (Ramachandran, 2015). This case study can help by understanding the problems concerning hydropower dams, thereby focussing on different disciplines and combining them in the end, with a special interest in run-of-the- river dams. The interest in these dams is high, as it is often said that these dams are relatively environmentally friendly and less floodings occur due to the dams compared to conventional multi- purpose hydropower dams (Douglas, 2007). Still, a lot of research can be done regarding the consequences, especially regarding the social consequences. Furthermore, this study is important because it lays bare the impacts of these dams, especially for the Indian local population as it is considered that they are an important stakeholder within this conflict. This case study thus may help in understanding these social consequences and might function as a framework for other case studies of hydropower and/or run-of-the-river dams. With respect to local consequences, the focus will be on the region of north-eastern India, which includes the states Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. This region is chosen because the Yarlung Tsangpo enters India in these states, after which it unites with the Brahmaputra. The following research question will be investigated in this research: What would be the consequences for the region of north-eastern India if China would continue their activities on the run-of-the-river dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river? Different aspects from four disciplines (earth sciences, biology, communication sciences & human geography) will be analysed and will results in an interdisciplinary conclusion.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 5 2. Theoretical framework
This theoretical framework will elaborate on relevant concepts and theories regarding the hydropower dams project in the Yarlung Tsangpo river for a better understanding of the problem and the following research. Firstly this section will focus on social-ecological systems (SES) serving as an overarching framework for the case study, providing an interdisciplinary approach. Hereafter the theories of hydro hegemony, framing and agenda-setting, and environmental impact assessment will be put forward. Finally, this section will close with a Data Management Table in order to provide a clear overview. Whereafter the method section will end with a visualisation of an integration of the mentioned theories and concepts in this theoretical framework, combined with the results of this case study, by means of an integrated theoretical framework.
2.1 Social-ecological systems Ecosystems worldwide are currently under threat due to damage and loss of natural resources. On the one hand humans are the cause of these deprivations, while on the other hand humans are highly dependent on ecosystem services and ecosystem support (Folke, 2006 ; Ostrom, 2009). It is therefore that humanly used resources are part of social-ecological systems, since these systems encompass ‘linked systems of humans and nature’ (Walker, Holling, Carpenter & Kinzig, 2004: p. 1). Additionally, these human interactions and natural resources may not be approached as separate concepts, since human actions take place within ecological systems and these two are thus subject to interactions and mutual influences (McGinnis & Ostrom, 2014). The concept of social-ecological systems (SES) might offer, and also demands, an interdisciplinary approach to the case study of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower dams by integrating both the social and the ecological aspects of the problem, since the complex problem encompasses a natural resource (i.e. water) used by different stakeholders, and thereby interlinked social and environmental potential consequences.
2.2 Hydro hegemony Hydropower dam projects, like the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river, can be approached from the theory of hydro hegemony, because this case involves mutual dependence between different stakeholders whereby one party could have more power than the other. Hydro hegemony entails a framework that addresses transboundary water conflicts and serves as an analytical tool to understand how power and power asymmetries might influence and shape transboundary water conflicts (Menga, 2016; Gupta, 2016). The framework builds on the statement that a position of hegemony in a river basin is based on the riparian party which has the most powerful position that is defined by four dimensions of power. These four dimensions are visualized in Figure 2. They respectively contain the geographical location of the state (upstream/downstream), material power (economic, military and technological power), bargaining power (being able to control rulemaking and the ‘agenda’), and ideational power (being able to legitimize its narratives) (Cascão & Zeitoun, 2010 ; Zeitoun & Allan, 2008 ; Zeitoun & Warner, 2006; Menga, 2016 ; Winslett, 2015).
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Figure 2. The four pillars of power for hydro-hegemony (Cascão & Zeitoun, 2010: 32).
Following these four dimensions, hydro-hegemony entails power asymmetries. Namely, the more powerful state can utilize its advantage to assure that the circumstance are in its favour, bringing one (or more) states/actors in a powerful position (i.e. the hegemonic state) where it can take advantages of the water resource. However, an advantage in power does not always means the hegemonic state to exploit the situation, it may also take a leading position, creating an optimal outcome for all states (Cascão & Zeitoun, 2010 ; Suhardiman & Giordano, 2012). Moreover one should also take into account that this central focus on power does not cover all aspects that determine one’s hydro hegemony. Critical positions towards the framework of hydro hegemony state that a central focus on the interaction between power and hegemony is also needed (Menga, 2016) and that the influence of international law on reducing power asymmetries (Gupta, 2016) should also be considered. Furthermore an analysis on all different stakeholder interests as a means to understand these power relations is needed as will be done using the following theories of framing and agenda setting.
2.3 Framing and agenda-setting In order to do this it should, among others things, be taken into account how the situation is framed within the media, because in this way the perceptions of political actors can be found (Jiang et al., 2017). In the results section all stakeholders involved will be assessed to understand the power relations more thoroughly, however a special focus in this research is on the role of the media in the shaping of policy over the dams. Framing therewith may be defined as selecting some aspects of a message and make them more salient in order to create a coherent picture of a perceived reality. In this way, the public could be influenced by the way something is framed (McCombs & Ghanem, 2001). Media is therefore an effective way for political actors to express their opinions on particular topics and thereby shaping people’s views (Jiang et al., 2017). Besides framing, the agenda-setting theory plays a role in order to understand the relationship between the media and the politics. Agenda-setting is about the transfer of salience parts from a message to our thoughts. So the media may not tell us what to think, but the media plays a large role in telling us what to think about (McCombs & Ghanem, 2001). So news media influences the policy agenda and therefore with regard to the Brahmaputra issue, the news media in riparian countries can both reflect the public sphere and their policies concerning the development of the river and their attitudes towards a possible solution (Steffek, 2009; Kleinschmit, 2012).
The theories of hydro hegemony, framing and agenda-setting are relevant, since power relations and positions of stakeholders and politicians may determine resource (i.e. water) usage, thereby possible changing both the ecological, social and thus interrelated parts of the social-ecological system, including possible consequences for the local population.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 7 2.4 Environmental Impact Assessment In order to investigate these ecological changes and its interactions with stakeholders and their power relations, an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) may be carried out. An EIA is also important to consider in this research, since they are often conducted on behalf of governments. Therefore the outcome of an EIA might influence policy making and power relations within a transboundary water conflict (see hydro hegemony). An EIA is the assessment of the environmental impacts (either positive or negative) of a policy, plan, program or project and is made at a stage when it can materially affect the decision to implement it (Sadler, 1996 ; Wathern, 2013). Impact in this context can be described as the change in an environmental parameter which results from an activity compared to the situation which would have occurred if the activity had not been initiated (Wathern, 2013) (see Figure 3).
Figure 3. Visualisation of an impact (Wathern, 2013).
In the context of this case study these environmental parameters might be sediment transport, water quality and fish migration. Regarding the hydrological regime, sediment transport is of great importance. It is known that (hydropower) dams can trap a significant amount of sediment from the watershed (Sundborg, 1992; Toniolo & Schultz, 2005 via Wildi, 2010). This may have a significant influence on the fertility downstream, and in turn on the food security of the local population (Kurian, 2016). The sediment plays a much-needed role in the region which is sensitive to (channel) erosion (Kurian, 2016). That is, when too little sediment is left in the river, the flowing water will pick up new sediment from the bottom of the river, because it wants to attempt to adjust to a uniform flow (Fondriest Environmental, 2014). Another aspect of sediment transport concerns water quality. Water quality refers to the quality depending on biological, physical and chemical characteristics of water, that can change significantly due to dams or reservoirs (Wildi, 2010; Wang et al., 2012). Water quality is related to and dependent on sedimentation flows that alter due to the hydropower dams. The composition and size of sediment particles that are able to pass the hydropower dam may increase the concentration of contaminants and the toxicity of the water, therewith reducing the water quality (Jüstrich et al., 2006 from Wildi, 2010). Moreover, sediment transport as well as hydropower dams may have an important impact on fish migration. Migratory fish species migrate to upstream habitats to spawn and rear but hydropower dams can block their upward movement (Gisen et al., 2017). An altered composition of sediment particles could have consequences for species which highly depend on an specific gravel size to incubate their eggs and protect them from predators (Kondolf, 1997). Nevertheless possible drawbacks of the assessment should also be considered. These include the uncertainty of prediction, values and related decisions and should be reduced as far as possible by carrying out sufficient research, negotiating and co-ordination (Wathern, 2013) (see Table 1).
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Table 1: Uncertainties in the EIA processes (Wathern, 2013).
Following these theories and concepts, the aim of this research is to find out how they may be applied to the specific case of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower dams and what both the social and ecological consequences will be for the social-ecological system of this watershed. From this point of view the following research question will be investigated in this research: What would be the consequences for the region of north-eastern India if China would continue their activities on the run-of-the-river dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river? Within the scope of this research question the focus will be on setting out the different stakeholders, the environmental consequences of the dams for the local population of north- eastern India, the influence of media framing on the power relations and subsequently the influence of the possible environmental consequences on the power relations. Based on the following sub questions:
● What are the different stakeholders concerning the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river? ● What are the environmental consequences for the local population of north-eastern India? ○ What are the consequences of sediment transport alteration and potentially changing water quality due to the hydropower dams for the local population of northern-India? ○ What are the consequences of potentially changing ecosystems due to the hydropower dams for the local population of north-eastern India? ● How are the environmental consequences of the hydropower dams influencing the power relations between China and north-eastern India? ● How is the media framing of the problem influencing the power relations within the conflict between China and India?
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 9 2.5 Data Management Table This Data Management Table offers a concise overview of the theories and concepts:
(Sub) Discipline Theory / hypothesis Concept(s) Assumptions / methodology Insight into the problem All disciplines Social-ecological systems: Natural resources, Human Human interactions and The concept of social- Approaches the social and interactions natural resources may not be ecological systems (SES) ecological as one system approached as separate might offer an since they are interlinked - Resilience: concepts, since human actions interdisciplinary and interdependent The capacity of a system to take place within ecological approach to the case absorb disturbance and systems and these two are thus study of the Yarlung reorganize while subject to interactions and Tsangpo hydropower undergoing change so as to mutual influences dams by integrating both still retain essentially the the social and the same function, structure, ecological aspects of the identity, and feedbacks problem Social sciences Hydro hegemony: - Transboundary waters: Hydro-hegemony provides an This frameworks may The analysis of riparian Water basins covering analytical framework for the provide a clear overview states controlling water more than one territorial examination of powerful or of the stakeholders and politics depending on their state. hegemonized riparian states the power relations of water-related power and how they might shift from India and China in de the - Power: domination to cooperation. case study of the Geographical, material, The aim of the theory is to hydropower dams in the bargaining and ideational work towards cooperative Yarlung Tsangpo river power outcomes in transboundary water conflicts that consist - Power asymmetries: power asymmetries. Uneven distribution of power over actors Communication Framing: News, media, focus, Framing is unavoidable within The news media in sciences The way something is essence, issues, message, communication and the media riparian countries can presented to the public (the influence, agenda, public, may not tell us what to think, both reflect the public frame) influences the political actors but the media plays a large sphere and their policies perceptions people have role in telling us what to think concerning the about the given about development of the river information. and their attitudes towards a possible Agenda-setting: solution News media influences the policy agenda and therefore the formation of policy alternatives. Natural Environmental Impact Water quality, sediment The key of this framework is to An environmental Impact sciences Assessment: transport, hydrological assess the impacts. After this, it Assessment might serve Assessment of regime can be decided if the plans are to investigate ecological environmental impacts continued. Nevertheless changes in the SES of this (either positive or negative) - Impact: uncertainty of prediction, Yarlung Tsangpo case of a policy, plan, program or The change in an values and related decisions study. These ecological project environmental parameter and should be reduced as far changes have interactions which results from an as possible by carrying out with stakeholders and activity compared to the sufficient research, negotiating their power relations that situation which would and co-ordination need to be considered have occurred if the and investigated activity had not been initiated
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 10 3. Methods and data
In order to answer the question “What would be the consequences for the region of north-eastern India if China would continue their activities on the run-of-the-river dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river?” in this research, qualitative research has been conducted. Interviewing is a form of data collection that is characterized as qualitative research, which will have a large share of the method used in this report. Interviews are a suitable method to discover what’s in people’s minds and what their views and interests are about a specific topic (Flick, 2014). Furthermore, a literature study has been conducted by making use of secondary data. In this way, all data that may be useful to answer the research question has been analysed. Firstly, interviews took place with experts in the field of river morphology and water quality, but also with people with an expertise on the social and environmental impacts of a hydropower dam. From the outset of the research, experts were approached in order to discover which professionals might be relevant to get in touch with and subsequently an appointment has been made with those professionals. Interviews with Erik Mosselman (Deltares Delft), Karen Meijer (Deltares Delft) and Yumiko Yasuda (The Hague Institute of Global Justice) were conducted, whereby Erik Mosselman has a specialization in river morphology, Karen Meijer in water resources management and Yumiko Yasuda in transboundary water cooperation. The type of interview was a semi-structured interview and were conducted until theoretical saturation, which means that no more extra information is necessary to have a clear picture of the subject (Flick, 2014). The interviews consisted of open questions and when the interview continued, more and more information became specific to get a clear picture of the views and interests the interviewee had on the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river. The themes that were discussed are related to our sub questions concerning the different stakeholders, the environmental consequences of the dams for north-eastern India, the influence of media on the power relations and subsequently the influence of the possible environmental consequences on the power relations. In this way, relevant primary data has been conducted. Because the topic is relatively new, information from experts within field is desirable. The elaborated interviews can be found in the Appendix. Secondly, a literature study is conducted in order to answer the research question. A literature review can be defined as ‘the use of ideas in the literature to justify the particular approach to the topic, the selection of methods, and demonstration that this research contributes to something new’ (Hart, 1998). Conducting a literature review about previously acquired knowledge is crucial to initiating any research study (Webster & Waston, 2002). The quality of the literature input is very important in the process of literature review (Levy & Ellis, 2006). To acquire as much information with a quality as good as possible, Web of Knowledge and Google Scholar have been used as databases. Keywords as Zhangmu Dam, Tsangpo river dam, Brahmaputra watershed and social-ecological system have been used to acquire the relevant secondary data. By making use of reference checks, which means searching for the literature used by a specific article, other relevant studies were also found. In addition, the method ‘forward citation’ has been used. The button ‘cited by…’ in Google Scholar shows all articles that refer to the article you searched for in the first place. In this way, more relevant studies were found. The literature found has been analysed, and similarities and differences between the relevant theories are examined. Based on these theories and with the obtained knowledge on integration (techniques), an integrated framework is made, applied to our case. The interviews and literature study were carried out within a few months, starting on February the 6th (see Time Frame on next page). Efforts have been made to complete the literature study and the elaboration on time, so that sufficient time was left to integrate all obtained knowledge and insights from the different disciplines and interviews. After this, the results were analysed and discussed, in order to obtain a complete sketch of the situation.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 11 3.1 Time Frame What? Start data Days to complete Literature study February 6th 73 (finished before May 1st, so enough time was left to integrate all literature) Contact potential experts by February 16th Deadline mid-May, so that email enough time was left to conduct interviews Interviews April 3th: Erik Mosselman 40 days (May 12th), so that May 4th: Karen Meijer enough time was left to May 8th: Yumiko Yasuda integrate interviews Elaboration of the interviews April 10th 33 days (May 12th), so that enough time was left to integrate interviews Write report: integrate February 6th 100 (finished before turning in literature study, interviews draft version on May 17th). and make integrated framework
3.2 Integrated Framework
To analyse the problem of this case study in an interdisciplinary way, the organisation technique would be appropriate here. Within this technique, all the domains are combined and influence each other under an umbrella of organisational behaviour. In short, it identifies commonality in concepts, redefines them, and organises the causal links between them (Rammelt, 2017). Within this research, it is tried to identify the causal links between the social and natural sciences and to combine both, in order to analyse one concept: the consequences of the hydropower dams. Therefore the organisation technique is appropriate. This integration has been done in the integrated framework that can be seen in figure 4. At first sight the framework looks rather complex, however this section on the results of the analysis will clarify the links that are sketched in the framework. The integrated framework can thus be seen as a summary of the theoretical framework and the results combined in order to have a clear overview of the current situation in the SES of the Brahmaputra in India due to the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river. The left side describes the ecological concepts and the right side the social concepts. All these concepts have common grounds regarding the local population.
Figure 4: Integrated framework.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 12 4. Results
First, all different stakeholders involved in the case study will be set out, whereafter the environmental consequences of the dams for the local population of north-eastern India will be discussed. Thereafter these environmental consequences will be linked to the power relations within this conflict in order to see the interactions in the SES of the Brahmaputra in north-eastern India. Finally the influence of framing and agenda-setting on these power relations will be analysed to see how these power relations and the involved policies are shaped and how they therewith might influence decision making over the Yarlung Tsangpo dams. Subsequently this can be linked back to the environmental consequences which are the result of these political decisions made over the construction of the dams. These links between the ecological and social aspects of the Yarlung Tsangpo dams are especially emphasized in this section, since it is tried to concretize how the whole SES system of this case study is interrelated and interacts.
4.1 Stakeholders involved In order to analyse a (complex) problem, it is necessary to know which stakeholders are involved in this transboundary water conflict and are of particular interest for the rest of this case study. At first, it is important to say that the involved stakeholders are dependent on the scope of the research (Meijer, May 4th, 2017). For example, a study can be conducted at country level, whereby the local parties are not taken into account. In this case study, it is decided to focus on the effects on the local scale. Therefore, besides the Chinese and the Indian government, the local population is an important stakeholder, as also Mrs. Yasuda (May 8th 2017) and Karen Meijer (May 4th 2017) confirm. The local population in this research refers to the local population of the regions Assam and Arunachal Pradesh (= north-eastern India). However the ecological consequences for the local population located downstream the dams in Tibet are used as a directory for the ecological consequences for the Indian local population. That is, the direct consequences for the Tibetan population might offer a framework for assessing the consequences for the Indian population, since it is assumed that the Indian population endures similar consequences of the run-of-the-river dams as the Tibetan population does directly downstream the dams. Mr. Mosselman (April 4th 2017) also indicates that the local population is important, however, he claims that the local population are often not involved in projects like a hydropower dam and that little information is spread to them. This is based on own experience in the Brahmaputra basin and it is not known if this is also the case in our hydropower dams project, but it may be important to realise that the role of the local population is sometimes underexposed in projects in the Brahmaputra basin. Besides the local population, NGO’s may have an important role within our case, as they can give advice to governments and involved companies about possible effects of the dams.
As the different stakeholders concerned are set out, the environmental consequences for these different stakeholders can be investigated. The specific focus here will lay on the environmental consequences for the local population of north-eastern India and in order to assess these environmental consequences, it is needed to firstly explain the technical specifications concerning the Yarlung Tsangpo dams. This will be done before the environmental consequences will be discussed, which is done following the theory of an Environmental Impact Assessment (see theoretical framework).
4.2 Specifications of the dams As stated in the introduction, the first, already existing, Zangmu dam is a ‘run-of-the-river’ (shortly ROR) dam. A ROR is a relatively new type of hydroelectricity dam that is often referred to as ‘environmentally friendly’ in comparison to conventional hydroelectricity dams since it does not require a reservoir or water diversion like former dams do. Nonetheless, some RORs do have reservoirs or divert water, like the Chinese Gezhouba hydroelectric project which has a reservoir covering an area of 63 km² (Zhong & Power, 1996). As mentioned in the introduction, China claims the Zangmu run-of-the-river project not to include a reservoir (IANS, 2010). However, we have not found this verified yet and many water experts have shown their doubts on the absence of a reservoir, since including one could potentially give China
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 13 significant capacity to pressurise its neighbours like India by severely decreasing the river’s discharge (Sinha, 2012). Mrs Meijer and Mr Mosselman also state that they can not imagine that there is absolutely no water retention. Hereby, we will not draw one solid conclusion, since the true situation remains unknown and the different specifics might influence our conclusion. Taking into account however the brevity of this research, this report will focus mainly on the situation where a (large) reservoir is absent, thereby following China’s statements. Additionally, since there’s no information available about the specifics of the three future additional dams, it is assumed here that these dams will be RORs as well.
In Figure 5 a schematic image of a ROR that does not include a reservoir is given, although a small pond is required to keep the penstocks submerged. Penstocks are small pipes that divert the water from the river and lead it into the turbines (Douglas, 2007). The penstocks can be several kilometres long. A ROR requires a large water flow to create a profitable project (Douglas, 2007) and generally ROR’s divert 80- 95% of a river’s flow (Knight Piésold, 2008). The so-called ‘instream flows’ are the flows left in the river which are not drawn through the pipes to enable passage for fish and other aquatic species. Figure 6 shows a close up of a ROR powerhouse that does include a reservoir but also shows the technique of the turbines, which are assumed to be of similar kind in all types of ROR . As can be seen, trash racks are installed at the ventage of the penstocks that prevents trash, but also coarse sediments, from entering the turbines (Douglas, 2007).
Figure 5: Schematic image of a ROR. from www.nextgenerationhydro.ca
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Figure 6: Close up of a ROR powerhouse. from www.energyottawa.com
4.3 Sediment transport and water quality on local population Although as stated above, that run-of-the-river dams in principle do not involve the storage of water, it is still likely that some water is trapped. This is also confirmed by Erik Mosselman (April 3th 2017) and Karen Meijer (May 4th 2017), who both state that they can not imagine that no water is trapped by the dams. When even a little amount of water is trapped, this can have an effect on the sediment transport after the dams, and in turn on the water quality (Wildi, 2010). Erik Mosselman states that the actual alteration of the sediment transport depends on the technical details of the dams, as is also confirmed in literature by Mahapatra & Ratha (2016). However, within every type of a ROR dam, trash racks are present to prevent coarse sediments from entering the turbines. No new sediment being supplied downstream the dam will lead to local “hungry water”; the water keeps transporting down sediment which leads to erosion of the river bed, causing channel incision, since it is not replaced by new. The degree of incision depends on the characteristics of the river. Moreover, the eroded riverbed will coarsen since smaller gravels will be taken with by the stream (Kondolf, 1997). Since there is little more information available about the exact details of the dams, the alterations in sediment are mainly built on speculations and expectations.
4.3.1 Sediment transport To illustrate the problem of sediment alteration transport, the (case) study of Marchand et al. (2014) can be used. They have previously performed a study on the cumulative impacts of small-scale hydropower cascades in Vietnam. These dams were not run-of-river-systems, but since they are considered as small dams with little water storage, there can be looked at the results to predict effects of the run-of-the-river dams (with perhaps little water storage) in the Yarlung Tsangpo. They state that sediment is trapped in reservoirs with annual filing rates that can go up to 100%, however, that this depends on the cascade considered. In the end, they state that the net result is that river beds become more homogenous and less dynamic, subsequently affecting the riverine ecosystem, its composition and functions (Marchand et al., 2014).
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 15 4.3.2 Aquatic life As stated above, the coarsening of the river bed and it becoming more homogenous has serious consequences for the riverine ecosystem, and thus for its aquatic life. For example, spawning fish such as trout, which highly depend on gravels to incubate their eggs, will be affected since female fish dig small pits in the river bed with their tail, which is only possible when the gravels are small. After depositing the eggs and impregnation by the male, females shove gravels from upstream over the eggs creating a nest (called ‘redd’) which constitutes perfect incubation environments. Moreover, this way the eggs will be protected from predation (Kondolf, 1997). Coarsening the river bed has thus negative effects on the reproduction of these fish species, and will probably decline the fish stocks. However, the loss of spawning grounds is not the only important consequence of the gravel loss. Benthic macroinvertebrates are small organisms that live at the bottom of freshwater bodies and play a major role in the lower food chain. ‘Benthos’ use small gravels in the river bed as homes and shelter, which clearly shows the tremendous ecological importance of these gravels (Baxter, 1977). Since many aquatic species depend on these benthos for food, a decline in benthos means a decline in fish. Another consequence of the dams sensible for aquatic species is the amount of water not drawn into the penstocks, the ‘instream flows’, that allow fish and other aquatic species to follow the river. It is currently still very uncertain what the appropriate minimum levels of instream flows are for fish, although it is known that general conservative rules that protect fish stocks do not allow the diverted flows to be that high (Douglas, 2007). The low level of instream flows might affect the passage and exchange of individuals, and therefore the health of the population, however this is based purely on speculations.
4.3.3 Water quality Another consequence of an alteration of sediment transport and highly important for the local population is the negative impact on the water quality downstream the dams. Wildi (2010) and Wang et al. (2012) both state that the concentration and distribution of pollutants in the river can be changed if there is a hydrological alteration. When a dam is built and water is trapped (temporarily), sedimentation occurs along the reservoir axes. The coarse fraction in the reservoir (sand and coarse silt) diminishes in suspension and the fine fraction (clay and fine silt) increases as a proportion of the total fraction. Contaminants are mainly absorbed to fine fraction and thus, the outflow of the dam has a higher concentration of contaminants and has a higher toxicity than the inflow (Jüstrich et al., 2006 from Wildi, 2010). Wang et al. (2012) gives an extra explanation for a higher concentration of pollutants. Namely, the flow after the dam is reduced, and therefore, the diffusion rate of pollutants decreases. This will result in a higher toxicity, and in a decreasing water quality (Wang et al., 2012). In short, a decline in water quality could occur in the Yarlung Tsangpo when a reservoir appears to be included (Mahapatra & Ratha, 2016).
4.3.4 Consequences for the local population This brings us to the consequences for the population downstream the dams, focusing on the functions of the Yarlung Tsangpo. As stated before, the direct consequences for the Tibetan local population are used as a directory for the consequences of the Indian local population. Therefore, the direct consequences for the Tibetan population are assessed firstly. For one thing, the change in sediment transport may affect the water quality downstream the dams, which might be harmful for the local population downstream the dams in Tibet. The increase of small suspended solid sediments upstream the dams damages the river’s biodiversity (Quinteiro et al., 2017). On top of this, the fertile river sediment positively influences soil fertility (Singh & Rajamani, 2001). The flow of silt makes agricultural land fertile, which is needed for food production and food security of the region. An alteration in sediment transport can therefore have a negative impact on, in this case the food production and security of the local population in Tibet. Additionally, the decline in Benthic species might Since Tibetans regard water as sacred, they do not eat fish and therefore do not depend on the river’s fish stocks (Jacobsen et al, 2013) However, the construction of the dams and therefore the decline in fish stocks and biodiversity might not accommodate their beliefs.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 16 Erik Mosselman gives a suitable solution for the problem of sediment alteration, as he states that the trapped sediment upstream (before the dams) can be restored downstream (after the dams). This has been done in the river Rhine, in which small dams have been placed to regulate the water flow. In the future, this can be a suitable solution to minimize the effects of sediment transport alteration, however it might not be a solution for the disruption of the riverine ecosystem, including spawning fish and benthic species. When focusing on the local population of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, direct consequences for the local population of northeastern India appear to be minor, since it appears that only 14.61% of the water in the Brahmaputra river is derived from the Yarlung Zangbo river (Xie & Jia, 2016). Moreover, due to global warming, models predict more melt water coming from glaciers and an increase in precipitation, resulting in higher discharges in rivers all around the world, including the Brahmaputra river (Shi et al., 2011). Therefore, no direct consequences of the hydropower dams for the local population are expected in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. This is also confirmed by Erik Mosselman, who expects that consequences will more likely occur at local scale at the dam sites, than in the downstream area of India.
In short, it can be concluded that the changing sediment transport, potentially changing water quality and the decline in fish stocks are not a problem (yet) for the local population in India, but serious negative consequences might be expected in the environment of the Yarlung Tsangpo, and consequently for the local population in Tibet.
4.4 Environmental consequences and power relations Subsequent to the environmental consequences that are described in the previous two paragraphs, these will now be causally linked to the social consequences of the hydropower dams, namely the power relations between China and north-eastern India. This will be done following the theory of hydro hegemony, since this theory offers a framework for addressing transboundary water conflicts by offering an analytical tool to assess how the power asymmetries are subdivided within this transboundary water conflict (Menga, 2016; Gupta, 2016). Nevertheless as the previous paragraphs on the environmental consequences conclude that no major negative consequences may be expected for the local population in Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, this might however be different for the power relations between China and India.
4.4.1 Concerns as a field of conflict Clearly it may be important to notice that despite the absent environmental or ecological consequences for the region of north-eastern India, India still expresses its truly concerns about the consequences that the hydropower dams might have for the local population in its country (Ramachandran, 2015 ; Crow & Singh, 2009 ; Yasuda, May 8th 2017). The presence of this concern may be seen as a cause for the transboundary water conflict between China and India related to their power relationship, since this concern creates a field of conflict. Moreover one might wonder why India is so concerned, taking into consideration the abundant environmental consequences. Firstly, this concern may be explained from a historical perspective. Namely stating that until the early 2000’s India used to be the strong hegemon in the power relations over transboundary waters in south Asia. India had this position, since they were, geographically seen, the upstream country in hydropower dam management. They therewith held the water related power over the downstream countries, especially with regard to the Ganges river (Yasuda, May 8th 2017 ; Warner & Zawahri, 2012). Nevertheless in the following decade(s) China is occupying this hegemon position, since they also started building hydropower dams, making India suddenly a middle- or downstream country (Biba, 2014 ; Yasuda, May 8th 2017). Concerning the fact that India knows what the consequences of their hydropower dams are for their downstream countries (such as Bangladesh), it is assumed in this research that this knowledge provokes the concerns of India itself by now being a downstream country of China. Secondly, the withholding of information on the specific details of the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river by China may be stated as another cause for the concerns expressed by India. That
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 17 is, India is not familiar with the size of the dams and its specifics, thus not knowing what the potential impact of the dams might be (Yasuda, May 8th 2017).
4.4.2 Power asymmetries Furthermore the theory of hydro hegemony encompasses four dimensions of power. Respectively geography, material power, bargaining power and ideational power (see theoretical framework for elaboration). Regarding this research it may be interesting to apply these dimensions of power on the case study of the Yarlung Tsangpo hydropower dams in order to see the distribution of the power asymmetries over India and China. Firstly, the dimension of geography speaks for itself as China being the upstream country and India the downstream country in the conflict (Mosselman, April 3th 2017 ; Yasuda, May 8th 2017). Secondly, the dimension of material power (economic, military and technological) is also mostly in favour of China, since China is building the hydropower dams and thus holds the power over the economic benefits and technological knowledge. Thirdly, the bargaining power asymmetry is more divided over both China and India, since China is clearly the hegemon in this conflict, however India is also an important player in transboundary cooperation in south Asia. Moreover India holds a stronger position here, since India also has hydropower dams on their rivers, influencing the navigational routes for export products from China; leaving them in a better position to negotiate with China (Yasuda, May 8th 2017). Finally, the ideational power is more complex to determine, because further research is needed to examine to which extent India nor China is ‘able to legitimize its narratives’ (Cascão & Zeitoun, 2010 ; Zeitoun & Allan, 2008). Overall it seems that the power asymmetry in all four dimensions bends towards China, making China the hydro hegemon in this transboundary water conflict. Regarding the sub question of this paragraph – how are the environmental consequences of the hydropower dams influencing the power relations between China and north-eastern India? – it may be concluded that there is no direct link between the environmental consequences and its influence on the power relations in this conflict, since there are no direct environmental consequences for the region of north-eastern India. However it should be remarked that the fact that India still believes there will be environmental consequences, sharpens the power relations between China in India. Additionally, within this power relationship China is the hydro hegemon by holding the most power over what will happen in the future.
4.5 Media framing and power relations Subsequent to the consequences regarding the power relations between China and India, these will now be combined with another social aspect of the hydropower dams, namely the media framing of the problem. Relevant theories within this paragraph will be the framing theory and the agenda-setting theory which are explained in the theoretical framework. Despite that the previous paragraphs about the environmental consequences of the dams concluded that there won’t be major negative consequences for the areas of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the media likes to exaggerate reports in a negative way in order to attract attention. Negativity is one of the news values (Harcup, & O’Neill, 2001). As can be read in the Theoretical framework, news media are a source for the public to better understand complex issues and therefore plays an important role in shaping public opinions (Miles & Morse, 2007). Sadath et al. (2013) identified significant divergences between national and international news media in their way of framing whereby the international media may be more objective and neutral compared to national media. It is therefore necessary to also analyse the international public opinion about a conflict in order to resolve the conflict and to improve the power relations. Jiang et al. (2017) did a research about how the Brahmaputra river hydropower development is framed within the English media. Thereby it is found that the advantages of upstream countries and dependences of downstream countries are a major aspect in news reporting. This refers to the observation that international media mostly take of the news reports of the Indian media instead of the Chinese media. Within the studies of Steffek (2009) and Kleinschmit (2012) it is described that news media influences the policy agenda and therefore the formation of policy alternatives and possible cooperations between countries. So specifically, with regard to the Brahmaputra issue, the news media in China and
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 18 India should emphasize the possibility of (already existing) bilateral treaties between the two countries in order to influence the policy agenda’s. As a result, highlighting positive developments are important in providing the idea of a solution in people’s minds instead of highlighting the conflict (Yasuda, May 8th, 2017). In this way, the power relations could be neutralized. However, China and India should first come up with right media messages and not withhold any relevant information. Currently, the Chinese media are very positive about the three future dams and highlight their economic advantages, while the Indian media display the opposite, and highlight the possible consequences and exaggerate them (Yasuda, May 8th, 2017). This is also confirmed by the research of Jiang et al. (2017). Moreover, India publishes a lot more about the Brahmaputra hydropower dams compared to China, about ten times more (Jiang et al., 2017). The messages are mostly about the relation between China and India on the Brahmaputra, dam related campaigns in the region of Assam and the domestic politics of Assam and Arunachal. So the media context, and thus the framing, has mostly to do with politics. After politics, the environment is a frequent aspect of new reporting. News messages about the technology and the economy are less presented (Jiang et al., 2017). An example of an quote published by the Indian news media is described in the article of Jiang et al. (2017) (p. 12): “Chinese disaster in the making - India, therefore, has to take immediate actions to engage China in serious discussions on the trans-boundary rivers… We should not remain as mute spectators watching helplessly our neighbor’s plans. We have to protect our interests...”
In conclusion, as the international media may be more objective and neutral compared to national media, it is necessary to include these international media reports by working towards a solution. In addition, the media should highlight positive developments like the possibility of bilateral treaties. According to the agenda-setting theory, this media behaviour will influence the policy agenda and therefore the formation of policy alternatives and the development of the power relations between China and India.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 19 5. Conclusion, discussion and recommendations
From the results it may be concluded that there will probably be minor to negligible ecological consequences for the local population of Arunachal Pradesh and Assam if China would continue their construction of three more hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river. Negative impacts on fish stocks and water quality are expected, however the share of water from the Yarlung Tsangpo in the Brahmaputra river is very little thus diminishing the overall effect on the local population of Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.
The negligible ecological impacts of the dams might however not be the end of this water conflict, since India still has its concerns about the impacts of the dams because China does not provide any specifications about them. Moreover, China might use this lack of communication and its hegemonic power to intimidate India and acquire more hegemony and therefore deteriorates their power relations. However, China’s main interest by constructing the three dams is still expected to be not the generation of hegemony but the generation of hydroelectricity (Mosselman, April 4th 2017).
5.1 Discussion and recommendations It should be noted that within this research, diversion of the water is omitted and is seen apart from the hydropower dams project. According to Ramachandran (2015), China has future plans to divert a significant amount of water at the U-turn in the river, in the same period that expansion of the dams is planned. The combination of the dams and the diversion of the water could result in different environmental effects, such as reduced water flow. On top of this, different theories and concepts should be analysed. For example, the water grabbing approach might be a theory to analyse. Water grabbing refers to the actions in which powerful actors (in our case India and China) take control of water resources for their own benefit, thereby depriving local communities who are often dependent on the resources and ecosystems (Franco, Metha & Veldwisch, 2013). Additionally, due to the lack of information from China on the characteristics of the run-of-the-river dams, it remains uncertain whether the dams include reservoirs. In this research, it was assumed the dams did not following China’s claims, however further research is needed to confirm this. The presence of reservoirs is most likely to alter our findings. In short, different environmental consequences could occur, as well as social consequences and interactions between the actors and should therefore be analysed in further research. Besides this, mitigation is not investigated within this research and future research could be done to mitigate the negative effects of the expansion of the dams. Technical aspects of the dams could be improved, thereby diminishing the negative effects. Also, more openness in communication between China and India might be an addition in solving this complex problem. Both information from China and India have a lack of scientific basis and therefore, it is difficult to analyse the problem and to decide which information is valid. A transparent relationship between the two countries and the exchange of valid information could improve the power relations and thereby possibly reduce the problem. Finally, the local population focussed on in this research was chosen to be the population of the regions Assam and Arunachal Pradesh in north-eastern India, since initially more abundant consequences for the Indian population were expected. However, further research could also integrate the ecological and social consequences for Tibetan population. In this research, the ecological consequences for the local population located downstream the dams in Tibet are merely used as a directory for the ecological consequences for the Indian local population. Meaning, the direct consequences for the Tibetan population offered a framework for assessing the consequences for the Indian population.
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Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 24 Appendix
Uitwerking met Erik Mosselman Datum: 3 april 2017 Waar: Deltares, Delft Functie: Expert in river engineering, fluviatiele morfodynamica en hydrodynamica. Hij heeft gewerkt in het gebied van de Brahmaputra.
Erik Mosselman heeft voor het laatst onderzoek gedaan in het gebied van de Brahmaputra in 2015 of 2016. Dit onderzoek betrok zich tot het vastleggen van de oevers van de rivier. Vanwege de wilde bewegingen van de rivier en vanwege de hoge populatiedichtheid, is het nodig om de rivier goed in kaart te brengen om infrastructuur en dorpen te beschermen. Hij classificeert dit als een groot sociaal probleem, omdat de mensen veel kunnen verliezen en vaak als gevolg naar de slums trekken. Momenteel zijn er projecten om de rivier beter vast te leggen, maar hij geeft aan dat dit lastig is vanwege de grote lengte van de rivier. Ook vragen projecten met betrekking tot oeverbescherming veel organisatie, commitment en geld. Geld is vaak afhankelijk van internationale donoren en is daardoor vaak niet continu, wat het opzetten van projecten bemoeilijkt. Van te voren moeten er vaak dingen geregeld worden als aankoop van grond, het opzetten van een kamp voor de werkzaamheden en de inkoop van bouwmaterialen. Dit moet soms wel een of twee jaar van te voren bepaald worden en dan moet je goed weten waar de rivier dan is en hoe deze zich ontwikkelt.
Meneer Mosselman merkte op dat de dam in de Tsangpo geplaatst zal worden, en dat dit maar een kleine toevoeging heeft aan de Brahmaputra. Deze rivier ligt in Tibet, wat in de regenschaduw van de Himalaya is gelegen. De moesson regens worden hier tegengehouden en veel water valt hier neer als precipitatie. Wanneer het de bocht heeft gemaakt in India en het gebied van Assam binnenstroomt, dan gaat het meer regenen en dit komt mede ook in de Brahmaputra terecht.
Zijn ervaring met projecten in het gebied is dat er vaak beperkte stakeholders zijn. Het is over het algemeen anders geregeld dan in westerse landen. In het stroomgebied van de Brahmaputra is er vaak wel contact met overheidsorganisaties, en hij noemt hierbij het voorbeeld Bangladesh Water Development Board, een equivalent aan Rijkswaterstaat hier. Verder zijn internationale ingenieursbureaus en aannemers vaak betrokken. Ook heeft hij wel eens een project opgezet in samenwerking met de TU Delft en de Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, waarbij is gekeken naar alternatieve constructies van rivier bescherming. Hierbij was er meer rechtstreeks contact met de bevolking. Hij heeft tot op heden weinig kritiek ontvangen wat betreft uitgevoerde onderzoeken in het gebied, maar meneer Mosselman ervaart soms weinig inhoudelijke interesse in de uitslagen van het onderzoek en interesse om problemen aan te pakken. Men hecht een waarde aan het binnenhalen van geld van donoren en minder vaak aan het succesvol afronden van projecten. Soms mist er een connectie van meegebrachte kennis en dit over te brengen naar de andere partijen, waardoor de kennis niet tot de lokale bevolking komt. Een reden hiervoor kan zijn dat het succes van projecten vaak afhangt van het goed reguleren van de geldstroom en dat bovendien geld soms ook blijft hangen. Er is over het algemeen wel interesse om problemen op te lossen, maar mensen worden vaak afgerekend op het binnenhalen en het succesvol afronden van een project, maar het is minder belangrijk of het er na bijvoorbeeld drie jaar nog staat. Dit heeft invloed op de lange termijn effecten van projecten. Hij voegt toe dat dit in Bangladesh het geval kan zijn, maar weet niet of dit in India ook zo is.
Na uitleg van onze specifieke case, legt meneer Mosselman uit dat India hetzelfde doet tegenover Bangladesh met de implementatie van dammen. Ook noemt hij hierbij het voorbeeld van de rivier de Koshi rivier in Nepal, waarbij India weinig tot geen informatie geeft aan Nepal over de projecten in deze
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 25 rivier. Het is vaak erg gevoelig en staatsgeheim en het is te weinig gebaseerd op echte kennis en argumenten, maar meer uit wantrouwen en wat men in de media leest. Daarnaast noemt hij het voorbeeld van de Ganges, die ook vanuit India naar Bangladesh stroomt, waarbij het ging om de effecten van een barrage (bovenstrooms). Er was een workshop georganiseerd met experts, waarbij duidelijk werd dat de gevolgen subtieler zijn en dat het vaak niet zo’n groot probleem is als mensen van tevoren denken. Er zijn meestal andere factoren die ook een rol spelen. Tijdens zo’n workshop begint het vaak met politieke praatjes, waarna een groot deel van de journalisten weer weg gaan. Hierna begon het echte congres, waarbij duidelijk wordt in welke mate er gevolgen zijn. De berichten in de media geven dus vaak niet het totale probleem weer. Meneer Mosselman geeft aan dat de Tsangpo erg ver bovenstrooms ligt, en zegt dat een verandering in de afvoer van deze zijrivier waarschijnlijk geen dermate groot effect zal hebben op de Brahmaputra.
Na het uitleggen dat de dam een run-of-the-river dam is, zegt hij dat er zo dus inderdaad geen water wordt opgestuwd en dat het water blijft doorstromen. Hij benadrukt dat wanneer water wordt opgestuwd in een meer, aardbevingen kunnen ontstaan met wel magnitude 5 tot gevolg. Kleine aardbevingen hebben zich al voorgedaan in Tibet, en het effect hangt bijvoorbeeld af van de dichtbevolktheid in het gebied.
Wanneer het probleem van sediment transport wordt aangekaart, geeft hij aan dat een run-of-the-river dam eigenlijk geen sediment hoort tegen te houden, maar dat dit wel kan gebeuren. Hij geeft als oplossing hiervoor het voorbeeld van de rivier de Rijn, waarbij het sediment dat bovenstrooms wordt tegengehouden, voortdurend benedenstrooms weer wordt teruggelegd. Hij geeft aan dat het van de details van de dam afhangt hoeveel sediment er wordt tegengehouden. Wanneer er wordt gesproken van vismigratie, geeft hij aan dat het vaak de bedoeling bij dammen is om voorzieningen te bouwen voor het waterleven, als een parallel vistrap. Over de aanwezige vissoorten en eventuele migrerende vissoorten geeft hij aan weinig kennis te hebben, maar hij raadt wel aan contact op te nemen met Ian Cowx van de universiteit van Hull, wie we eventueel kunnen benaderen voor meer informatie over vismigratie. Qua vervuiling zou arseen een risico kunnen zijn (wat voorkomt in de regio van India en Bangladesh), net als het binden van gevaarlijke stoffen aan los en fijn sediment, maar hij weet niet of dat in de Brahmaputra een dermate groot effect zal hebben. We zouden kunnen kijken of er in de buurt mijnbouw wordt toegepast met zwaardere metalen, wat van invloed zou kunnen zijn op de waterkwaliteit van de Brahmaputra. In de Niger bijvoorbeeld, komt kwik vrij bij goudwinning, wat zich hecht aan het losse en fijne sediment in de rivier als het water stil staat. Uiteindelijk komt dit ook in de voedselketens van mensen en dieren.
Hij benadrukt dat de Brahmaputra onder druk staat door hevige visserij, maar weet niet of dit het geval is in de Yarlung Tsangpo. Een voorbeeld is de rivierdolfijn in de Brahmaputra, die met uitsterven wordt bedreigd. Een verandering in sediment zou ook van invloed kunnen zijn op de voortplanting van bepaalde vissoorten (zoals zalm), omdat zij leven van het sediment op de grond. Een aantal soorten vissen leggen hier bijvoorbeeld hun eieren in. Het fijne sediment is van belang om roofdieren tegen te houden. Eens in de zoveel jaar is een hoge afvoer van water nodig, zodat er een nieuwe lading fijne deeltjes sediment aangevoerd wordt. In de tussenliggende jaren treedt er benedenstrooms erosie op, waardoor vooral de fijne deeltjes verdwijnen, en hierbij de beschikbaarheid van de paargrond. Een ander risico zou kunnen zijn dat vissen gezandstraald worden als de stroming erg sterk is na de dam. Dit is bijvoorbeeld het geval bij dammen die eens in de zoveel tijd het water in het stuwmeer laten lopen. Meneer Mosselman geeft echter aan dat dat waarschijnlijk niet het geval is bij onze dam, omdat het een run-of-the-river dam betreft en een geleidelijke flow heeft, als het al het water doorlaat.
Hij geeft aan dat het lastig is om op afstand, zonder details, tot een definitieve uitspraak te komen wat betreft gevolgen van de dam. Hoewel het dus lijkt alsof China niets te vrezen heeft, houdt het veel
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 26 informatie achter. Dit doen ze vaak uit gewoonte; het land is vrij technocratisch en niet gericht op een sterke input van stakeholders of bevolking. Ze gaan er vaak vanuit dat de bevolking, die niet gestudeerd heeft, tegen plannen is (zoals het bouwen van een dam), omdat ze bang zijn voor de gevolgen. Hierdoor zijn ze terughoudend in het verspreiden van informatie en om het gesprek aan te gaan met de bevolking. Meneer Mosselman geeft aan dat de gevolgen vrij speculatief zijn, en dat er vaak een duidelijke argumentatie mist.
Er zijn wellicht duidelijke gevolgen voor de lokale bevolking van Tibet, maar er is hier nog te weinig informatie over. Invloeden op de visvangst zouden kunnen optreden, net als het verhuizen van mensen om de dam aan te kunnen leggen. Dit kan bewuste migratie veroorzaken. De invloed van de Tsangpo is in India en Bangladesh waarschijnlijk zo klein en er is een relatief geringe verandering van de rivier, wat samen maakt dat hij verwacht dat er geen tot zeer kleine effecten zullen zijn. Wel geeft hij aan dat de macht van de rivier belangrijk is: wie meer bovenstrooms is, kan beïnvloeden wat er benedenstrooms gebeurt. Hij geeft als voorbeeld een ander waterconflict, bij de Nijl. Afspraken over de waterverdeling zijn gemaakt tijdens de koloniale periode, maar Ethiopië was in die tijd geen kolonie en dus geen partij. Egypte maakt nu aanspraak op dingen, terwijl Ethiopië claimt dat zij ook recht hebben op water. Er zijn een aantal dammen in de rivier, met aanliggende stuwmeren. Het probleem treedt op wanneer deze meren gevuld moeten worden, waardoor er in de benedenloop minder water beschikbaar is. In het gebied van de Brahmaputra zijn minder afspraken gemaakt, en meneer Mosselman geeft aan dat de gemaakte afspraken aanleiding geven tot achterdocht.
Een toekomstvisie is lastig te geven. Het lijkt alsof demografische, politieke en economische belangen zwaarder wegen dan de klimaatverandering. Het kan een machtsspel genoemd worden, al klinkt deze term al snel te negatief. Er is namelijk geen sprake van misleiding of van een tactiek. Ook de groei van de bevolking maakt dat oude verhoudingen een andere dimensie krijgen. Een voorbeeld hiervan is Tibet, waar China de bevolkingsgroei probeert te stimuleren. Hierdoor zal het gebied ook anders gebruik gaan maken van water van rivieren.
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Uitwerking met Karen Meijer Datum: 4 mei 2017 Waar: Science Park, Amsterdam Functie: Expert in waterbeheer, civiele techniek en internationaal klimaatbeleid
Karen Meijer heeft een achtergrond in waterbeheer en ze heeft civiele techniek gestudeerd. Daarbij heeft zij dus een technische achtergrond, gecombineerd met klimaat en sociale aspecten. Bovendien heeft ze een master in International Public Management and Public Policy gedaan, een soort internationale bestuurskunde. Deze mix van een technische en sociale achtergrond sluit goed aan bij ons interdisciplinaire project.
[Wij geven een korte uitleg over ons onderzoek]
Mevrouw Meijer is zelf niet bekend met de Yarlung Tsangpo rivier, maar ze heeft wel eerder gewerkt aan de effecten van dammen en de gevolgen daarvan, waaronder ook kleine dammen die vergelijkbaar zijn met run-of-the-river dammen. Daarnaast heeft zij ook niet gewerkt aan de Brahmaputra zelf, maar wel aan andere rivieren, bijvoorbeeld aan een rivier die stroomt door Bangladesh. Hier heeft zij onderzoek gedaan naar het belang van de natuurlijke rivieren vormen voor de levensomstandigheden van de mensen die langs de rivier wonen. Dit zijn mensen die van visserij of landbouw afhankelijk zijn en baat hebben bij overstromingen of juist schade ondervinden van overstromingen. In een andere case in Vietnam heeft mevrouw Meijer gekeken naar wat kleine dammen doen voor de rivierafvoer. Ze weet niet precies wanneer een dam onder een run-of-the-river dam valt, maar ze geeft wel aan dat er ook ecologische aspecten zijn en kunnen optreden bij run-of-the-river projecten. In Vietnam was bijvoorbeeld het geval dat een kleine dam toch een bepaald waterverval nodig heeft om energie op te kunnen wekken. De hele rivier werd door een kanaal parallel langs de rivier geleid over meerdere kilometers om vervolgens in een keer naar beneden te storten terug in de oorspronkelijke rivier. Dus ook al was er geen reservoir, er was wel sprake van 10 km droge rivier voordat de turbine was bereikt en het water weer terug kon. Het water wordt dus afgetapt om een hoogteverschil te creëren om vervolgens energie te genereren. Als je benedenstrooms kijkt zal er aan je riverflow niet heel veel veranderen, omdat de storage erg klein is, maar in de delen waar het water wordt omgeleid heeft het wel effect op de ecologie. Daarnaast benadrukt mevrouw Meijer dat als je überhaupt een stuw plaatst, dat allerlei effecten kan hebben op migrerende soorten. Dit zal ook het geval zijn voor de sediment doorstroom, tenzij er voorzieningen worden genomen waardoor het toch mee kan. Uiteindelijk blijft de vraag wanneer je een dam een run-of-the-river dam noemt, want uiteindelijk zal elke dam een soort stuw moeten hebben om het water naar een turbine te kunnen leiden. run-of-the-river klinkt erg mooi, maar mevrouw Meijer kan zich niet voorstellen dat er een run-of-the-river is met helemaal geen stukje stuw en omleiding. Dit kan natuurlijk erg verschillen, en het is niet duidelijk wat daar precies voor grenzen aan zitten.
Het verschilt per studie of mevrouw Meijer zich bezig houdt met de rol van stakeholders in een case. Op dit moment houdt ze zich wel bezig met de relatie tussen water en conflict risico's, maar dat heeft zij niet onderzocht bij bovenstaande studies in Bangladesh en Vietnam. Ze benadrukt dat stakeholders afhangen van voor wie je een bepaalde studie uitvoert, bijvoorbeeld op landenniveau of eerder lokale partijen. In de eerste instantie zal het gaan om de mensen die er effecten van ondervinden, maar ook over de partijen die de mensen vertegenwoordigen of die beleid maken wat van invloed zou kunnen zijn op onze case. Met het oog op een run-of-the-river project zou het mee kunnen vallen hoeveel lokale mensen die langs de rivier wonen last hebben van de dammen. Hierbij is het van belang om te kijken naar wie er gebruik maken van de ecosysteemdiensten die mogelijk door de dam verstoord kunnen worden en wat zijn de overheidsinstanties die daarmee te maken hebben. Daarnaast kunnen NGO’s een rol spelen binnen de case om te kunnen adviseren over wat er allemaal mis kan gaan.
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 28 Ondanks dat mevrouw Meijer zelf geen onderzoek naar het volgende heeft gedaan, hoort ze wel steeds vaker dat China waarde hecht aan een internationaal beeld dat een leidinggevende rol in Azië uitstraalt waarbij verantwoordelijkheid en milieuvriendelijkheid een rol spelen. Het is interessant om na te gaan welke partijen een rol spelen in het beïnvloeden van de opinie hierover en van daaruit weer kunnen adviseren over een dergelijk conflict. Mevrouw Meijer kan echter weinig zeggen over of India zich terecht zorgen maakt over de bouw van de dammen, zonder dat er duidelijke effecten naar voren zijn gekomen en zonder dat het belang van de rivier voor India qua ecosysteemdiensten duidelijk is. De dam zal altijd iets doen, maar het is de vraag of India hier nadeel van zal ondervinden en zich terecht zorgen maakt. Men zal moeten kijken naar hoe belangrijk de rivier is voor India en welk aandeel de Yarlung Tsangpo heeft voor de toestroom naar India. Stel dat maar een kleine groep beïnvloed wordt door de dam, zou je ook naar een andere compensatie kunnen kijken in plaats van perde niet de dammen te bouwen.
Op dit moment zijn er nog geen bilaterale afspraken of verdragen gemaakt tussen India en China wat betreft water, maar mevrouw Meijer geeft aan dat afspraken over waterbeheer de enige manier is om er verder in te komen, maar dat hangt af van waar het verdrag over zal gaan. Dit kan zijn om het conflict op te lossen of om de effecten te beperken. Daarnaast kan er worden gedacht aan internationale commissies (basin commission), waarbij mensen uit India en China samenwerken om tot een oplossing te komen. Dat laatste is misschien wat minder formeel, maar dan gaat het in goed overleg. Mevrouw Meijer heeft aan dat het soms lastig kan zijn om direct op hoog niveau met elkaar in gesprek te gaan, maar je kan ook gezamenlijk op wat lager niveau een technische studie doet. Op deze manier haal je het uit de politieke sfeer zodat men eerst eens kan onderzoeken wat precies de effecten zijn en daarmee ook wat begrip voor elkaar krijgt. Uiteindelijk moet je op een of andere manier een dialoog met elkaar aangaan waarbij het relevant is dat deze is gebaseerd op inhoudelijke kennis.
Mevrouw Meijer heeft persoonlijk zelf nooit naar de rol van media gekeken, maar het is interessant om te onderzoeken in hoeverre media een bewuste strategie zou kunnen zijn voor India om meer te weten te komen over de dammen. Via mevrouw Meijer zijn wij ook in contact gekomen met Yumiko Yasuda.
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Uitwerking met Yumiko Yasuda Datum: 8 mei 2017 Waar: Science Park, Amsterdam Functie: Postdoctoral researcher on water diplomacy
At the moment Mrs. Yasuda is looking at water diplomacy throughout the Brahmaputra basin. They are trying to analyse what are the key factors affecting transboundary cooperation. Her expertise lies within environmental and water governance, looking at transboundary river issues. She is mainly doing projects on the Mekong river, but for the last one and a half year she is focussing on the Brahmaputra river and the lower Jordan river. It is a form of a political analysis where they are trying to look at what drives cooperation and what would be the future potential. They are looking at the existing cooperation between countries (about 5) over the Brahmaputra, between governments, including the relation between China and India. They are also looking at the Brahmaputra dialogue, where cooperation is facilitated by NGOs. After analyzing different forms of cooperation, they try to sketch the potential future actions concerning cooperation.
Mrs. Yasuda does not exactly know if the three extra dams are already under construction or not, but there are definitely three others in the plan, and one dam is already stated. However China does have an energy policy supported by a planning process including these four dams.
If you look at it historically, the Brahmaputra upstream was not a huge issue, as well as on the downstream. For India, the Ganges river is much more important. Besides this, water conflicts occurred between India and Bangladesh, but not so much between India and China. India has always been the strongest country in South Asia in terms of hegemony. India sometimes provide difficulties for Bangladesh, but these countries have a joined river commission together. Critics state that this commission is working in favor of India. Mrs. Yasuda thinks that concerning these dams, which are going to be build in China, India doesn’t really have to care much about what’s coming from upstream. India always used to be the upstream country, but now the position of India is changing. Now they also feel what it’s like to be a downstream country. So the power relations shifted a bit, because of the emerge of China in the context of the Brahmaputra river, but also of China in the region. Where all other countries among India were smaller and economically weaker, India is also geographically in the middle. All cooperation has to pass India. However, now China is coming in, economically influencing the situation. For this reason, India can’t keep its dominant position in the region because of China’s emergence. The Brahmaputra case reflects this development.
For Mrs. Yasuda it is unclear which side (China versus India) has a favor of the cooperation between China and India, but it has started from India’s side, because of concerns about floods. There is a MLU/ MIU(?) between China and India. In this way, India hoped for the release of some information from China related to the river. Within this MLU/MIU India pays China for the data collection costs of research conducted in China. This is a bit weird, but China says they have to deploy manpower and new techniques in order to get the data India wants. This is what the costs cover.
With regard to stakeholders, Mrs. Yasuda also states that besides the Chinese and Indian government, the local population is an important stakeholder to look at.
According to Mrs. Yasuda India is rightfully worried about the dams, but on the other hand, they have their own hydropower dams at the Brahmaputra. Since India has their own hydropower dams, they know what the effects might be for a downstream country (like Bangladesh) and that’s why they are worried, because the same could happen to them. However, the impacts of a hydropower dam could vary
Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 30 depending on the location and geography. In general, the bigger the distance between the dams and a downstream country, the impact will be less.
The concern of India is mostly coming from uncertainties and the lack of information. Currently, China is more open to the information, so that’s good for their relationship. However, another thing which India is concerned about is the territorial distributes. The border between India and Bangladesh in the region of Arunachal Pradesh has been distributed, so the border is not agreed. There was a war about this border as well. This problem is still not solved and creates some uncomfortable situations concerning cooperation over this river, because the river goes right through the area where the border is not clear. This specific case is the research area of Mrs. Yasuda. A border is one of the fundamental things of a state, and for China and India it stays an ongoing case. This influences the relationship between China and India to some extend.
Because of the four dams, China will have a stronger bargaining power as an upstream country. Besides this, a much bigger influence will be economical. For China, the Brahmaputra is one of their potential trade routes. This can also change the power relation between India and China. If you want to use a river as navigation route, you have to make sure that there are no barriers (dams), but in this case the dams lay in China and will not create a barrier for the route downstream. All the products will come from the eastern part and not from the western part where the dams are built. However, India could have dams that will create a barriers for the route downstream for China. So this is an interesting area for cooperation, since they both could benefit or lose (dams versus navigation route). Information could be shared more to operate in a sustainable way, because they are in early stages: not so much has been built already compared to other cases in the world.
With regard to the development of the power relations between China and India in the future, it is important to start more cooperation, also including different countries along the basin. Mrs. Yasuda thinks this will be the trend. In this case, India has more incentives to cooperate as China becomes to emerge. Example: BBIN (link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BBIN). If the right people speak at the right time, Mrs. Yasuda is quite optimistic that there will be more dialogues between China and India. There is clearly a win win situation, and in this way also a win win solution. An integrated plan is needed, at a basin scale, not just by sections or countries. If you look at Buthan, you see that they are very close with India and also have some hydropower cooperation. In the past, Bhutan was a closed country and now you see they can cooperate fine with India. This may be an example for the relationship between China and Bhutan, and China and India. Currently, there are only bilateral commissions and no commissions between three or more countries concerning the watershed. A lot of commissions are not formalised. Treaties symbolises the development of cooperation, because without cooperation, you can’t have treaties. However, just having a treaty does not mean is it implemented. The implementation is the problem sometimes. However an agreement may help, just like the BBIN.
In her own expertise, Mrs. Yasuda doesn’t focus on the media, but integrates it when it pops up as an important factor. In general, she mentions that the Indian media talks about the Chinese dams. From the Chinese people perspective they ranking the noise about it(?), and from India's perspective, they are more the source of information. Most of the information is coming from the Indian media and the Chinese media is more about how the hydropower dams form a opportunity for generating electricity and not about the conflict at all, where India does report about. Furthermore the media might play a role in order to form a solution to the problem, by providing the right information to the public. However, it is about how they operate. We should keep in mind that media likes to report negative things, because negativity will attract attention. Good cooperation and nice things happening won’t appear so often in the media. Highlighting positive things (good reports/cooperation) may be important when the media wants to play a role in order to form a solution for this transboundary conflict. The media could play a role in providing the idea of a win win solution in people's minds.
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