Chinese run-of-the-river hydropower dams generating not only electrical tension Setting out the consequences of China’s activities on the run-of-the-river hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river for the region of north-eastern India Final Interdisciplinary Report Interdisciplinary Project - June 2nd, 2017 Word count: 8095 Supervisors: Anneke ter Schure and Andres Verzijl Annabelle Gielen, Marije Doolaard, Robyn Jansma, Marle de Jong Abstract China has plans to extend the Zangmu Hydropower Station from one to four dams, which raised concern in downstream countries as India. In this interdisciplinary research, the consequences of the expansion of the Zangmu Hydropower Station are explored by the use of individual interviews and a literature study. Theories from Communication Sciences, Human Geography, Biology and Earth Sciences were used to give insight into the origins and impacts of the problem. The insights were then integrated to form a new understanding of the problem and its consequences. This research assesses the ecological impacts of the realization of three more “run-of-the-river” dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo on the local population of the north-eastern Indian states Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, India. The hydro-ecological impacts are expected to be negligible for the region of north-eastern India. Moreover, India has its concerns since China does not share any specifics about the dams. This lack of communication from China might be explained by a “power play” to control both water resources and maintain its hegemonic position over India. However, China’s main interest by constructing the three dams is expected to be not the generation of hegemony but the generation of hydroelectricity. Keywords: hydropower energy, hydro hegemony, environmental impact assessment, power relations, social ecological system, framing. Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 1 Content Acknowledgements 3 1. Introduction 4 2. Theoretical framework 6 2.1 Social-ecological systems 6 2.2 Hydro hegemony 6 2.3 Framing and agenda-setting 7 2.4 Environmental Impact Assessment 8 2.5 Data Management Table 10 3. Methods and integrated framework 11 3.1 Time frame 12 3.2 Integrated framework 12 4. Results 13 4.1 Stakeholder involved 13 4.2 Specifications of the dams 13 4.3 Sediment transport and water quality on local population 15 4.3.1 Sediment transport 15 4.3.2 Aquatic life 16 4.3.3 Water quality 16 4.3.4 Consequences for the local population 16 4.4 Environmental consequences and power relations 17 4.4.1 Concerns as field of conflict 17 4.4.2 Power asymmetries 18 4.5 Media framing and power relations 18 5. Conclusion, discussion and recommendations 20 References 21 Appendix 25 Elaborated interview with Erik Mosselman Elaborated interview with Karen Meijer Elaborated interview with Yumiko Yasuda Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 2 Acknowledgements In front of you lies the thesis “Chinese hydropower dams generating not only electrical tension”, a paper which will set out the consequences of China’s activities on the hydropower dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river for the region of north-eastern India. This paper is a thesis of the course Interdisciplinary Project at the University of Amsterdam. This project was conducted from February 2017 till June 2017. Advice given by Erik Mosselman, Karen Meijer and Yumiko Yasuda has been a great help in this study. They have given new insights in this problem, each in their own specialization and we thank them for the interviews. Besides this, thanks should be given to Anneke ter Schure, our first supervisor, for her feedback as well as Andres Verzijl, for his useful and constructive recommendations on this project and during the presentations. Annabelle Gielen, Marije Doolaard, Robyn Jansma, Marle de Jong Amsterdam, May 2017 Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 3 1. Introduction The Yarlung Tsangpo-Brahmaputra-Jamuna River is one of the world’s greatest transboundary rivers (Franco et al., 2014). The Yarlung Tsangpo originates in Tibet and flows through southern Tibet before the river makes a U-turn and enters the easternmost states of India where it unites with the Brahmaputra. After flowing through the Indian states Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, the river enters Bangladesh, where it is joined by the Ganges and Meghna (Franco et al., 2014; Ramachandran, 2015). According to Ramachandran (2015), the Brahmaputra is known as the world’s largest delta and highly important for the surrounding countries and ecosystems. The countries China and India are respectively the world’s first and second countries in terms of population, and millions of people are living along the Brahmaputra river basin (Ahmed et al., 2013). Therefore, for both China and India, the Brahmaputra is of special importance. According to Biba (2014), the river is an important component for the Indian population because it plays a large role in providing enough available water. However, China is planning to expand their hydropower performances along the Brahmaputra by building more hydropower dams (Biba, 2014). In most recent years, there is a growing interest in this river because of its high altitude gradient and therewith potential hydropower energy (Chang, Liu & Zhou, 2010; Biba, 2014). In November 2014, China has built the first hydropower dam in the Yarlung Tsangpo river and it plans to continue their ‘Zangmu Hydropower Station’ with expansion of three dams (The Economic Times, 2016). The project can be seen in Figure 1. Figure 1: Schematic overview of Zangmu Hydropower Station (Ramachandran, 2015). Taken together, the ever increasing population density in both countries and the competitive initiatives concerning the Brahmaputra river lead to a complex problem which has a great impact on the relationship between China and India (Mahapatra & Ratha, 2016). The complexity will be discussed further in the introduction and the report. On the one hand China is very optimistic about their hydropower plan and assures that the project does not involve storage or diversion of water. China states that the Zangmu dam is a “run-of-the- river” power generating project (shortly “ROR”) (IANS, 2010), which means that water is not diverted or grabbed, although this is still possible (Douglas, 2007). On the other hand, being a downstream country, India is worried about this project since the Brahmaputra is highly important for the daily life of the people and an important part of the cultural life (Ramachandran, 2015). India sees several risks regarding the project, since people who are living in the north-eastern part of India can become vulnerable as they depend on the water and on the ecosystem services of the Brahmaputra (The Economic Times, 2016). For example, the Indian population highly depend on the river in the river for irrigation (FAO, 2011). Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 4 Ecological changes regarding this river could therefore affect the local population near the river negatively. Moreover, a concern of India is that there are no bilateral or multilateral treaties on the water use and it believes that China can turn the water in the river into a political weapon (Mahapatra & Ratha,, 2016). Historically, no relevant water treaties have been arranged between China and India so far (Yasuda, May 8th 2017). Consequently, the extension of the dams project may be considered as a complex problem since there are different actors with their own interests and politics. Both India and China have their own views on how to deal with the amount of water which could be used for hydropower. This refers to the complex concept ‘observer dependence’ (Rammelt, 2017b). India and China have different interests, and both want to use the water in their own beneficial way. Consequently, analysts predict that ‘water wars’ could break out between China and India, because both countries see themselves as a regional and global power and do not want to damage this reputation. As a result of this, there is a lack of communication about the water management of the river between the two countries (Ramachandran, 2015). This case study can help by understanding the problems concerning hydropower dams, thereby focussing on different disciplines and combining them in the end, with a special interest in run-of-the- river dams. The interest in these dams is high, as it is often said that these dams are relatively environmentally friendly and less floodings occur due to the dams compared to conventional multi- purpose hydropower dams (Douglas, 2007). Still, a lot of research can be done regarding the consequences, especially regarding the social consequences. Furthermore, this study is important because it lays bare the impacts of these dams, especially for the Indian local population as it is considered that they are an important stakeholder within this conflict. This case study thus may help in understanding these social consequences and might function as a framework for other case studies of hydropower and/or run-of-the-river dams. With respect to local consequences, the focus will be on the region of north-eastern India, which includes the states Arunachal Pradesh and Assam. This region is chosen because the Yarlung Tsangpo enters India in these states, after which it unites with the Brahmaputra. The following research question will be investigated in this research: What would be the consequences for the region of north-eastern India if China would continue their activities on the run-of-the-river dams in the Yarlung Tsangpo river? Different aspects from four disciplines (earth sciences, biology, communication sciences & human geography) will be analysed and will results in an interdisciplinary conclusion. Interdisciplinary Project - Final Report 5 2. Theoretical framework This theoretical framework will elaborate on relevant concepts and theories regarding the hydropower dams project in the Yarlung Tsangpo river for a better understanding of the problem and the following research. Firstly this section will focus on social-ecological systems (SES) serving as an overarching framework for the case study, providing an interdisciplinary approach.