Regional/National Level of TARNS System CONOPS in the United States

RichardRichard H.H. HagemeyerHagemeyer PacificPacific TsunamiTsunami WarningWarning CenterCenter

Regional/NationalRegional/National LevelLevel ofof TARNSTARNS SystemSystem CONOPSCONOPS inin thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates

Charles S. McCreery, PTWC Director

TSUNAMI ALERT RAPID NOTIFICATION SYSTEM (TARNS) FIRST WORKSHOP: SYSTEM DESIGN AND PLAN

24-27 May, 2006, Sailom Hotel in Hua Hin, Thailand JMA: NWPTAC & WC/ATWC AOR Indian Ocean (Interim)

U.S./Canada HAWAII: Atlantic and Local, Regional, & Gulf Coasts Distant Tsunamis

Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands S. China Sea & (Interim) PACIFIC BASIN: Caribbean Regional and (Interim) Distant Tsunamis Indian Ocean (Interim)

PTWC Area of Responsibility PTWCPTWC KEYKEY OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES

•• SEISMICSEISMIC DATADATA COLLECTIONCOLLECTION && ANALYSESANALYSES •• TSUNAMITSUNAMI WAVEWAVE MEASUREMENTSMEASUREMENTS •• DECISIONDECISION--MAKINGMAKING PROCESSESPROCESSES •• MESSAGEMESSAGE CREATIONCREATION && DISSEMINATIONDISSEMINATION KEYKEY OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL GOALSGOALS

•• FASTERFASTER •• MOREMORE ACCURATEACCURATE •• MOREMORE RELIABLERELIABLE •• MOREMORE EFFECTIVEEFFECTIVE THETHE GENERALGENERAL CONCEPTCONCEPT

Threat Evacuation Safety Evaluation Decision Response

Designated ALERT DATA PTWC MESSAGE Government Public Authority TWOTWO GENERALGENERAL CASESCASES Local Tsunami • Must Respond in Minutes from Earthquake • No Time for Official Decisions • Immediate Public Alerting Necessary • Automatic Public Evacuation Required Regional or Teletsunami • Must Respond within a Few Hours at Most • More Time for Official Decisions • More Time to Alert and Instruct Public • Organized Evacuation Possible PTWCPTWC OPERATIONSOPERATIONS FORFOR AA TELETSUNAMITELETSUNAMI Historical Tsunami Epicenters PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 3

YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 5

W E

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 3

Automatic STEPSTEP 1 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Own Bulletin Ring(s) DeterminationSTEP 2 Cooperating SeismicSeismic Networks Network Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs DeterminationData Ingest if a Warning into Memory YES InteractiveRing(s) Hypocenter Determination Cooperating Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Seismic Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Networks Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 5

W E

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for InitialSTEP Tsunami 3 Bulletins

STEP 3 Automatic Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Arrival Detection and Association Detection and Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Association Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial STEPinto Memory 2 Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Data Ingest Magnitude Automatic Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning into Memory Hypocenter

Ring(s) Determination YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination Automatic STEP 6 N STEP 5 Magnitude

W E Determination

S PTWC GeneralSTEP Processes 3 and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

Automatic STEP 3 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Arrival Detection and Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Association Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter EventSTEP Alarms 4 Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Automatic Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning Hypocenter Event Alarms

Determination YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Automatic Determination STEP 6 N Magnitude STEP 5

W E Determination

S RESPONSERESPONSE TIMETIME TOTO ALARMSALARMS

2005: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS)

2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING)

OPS CENTER QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS 1 2 5 3 4 PACIFICPACIFIC EVENTEVENT ALARMSALARMS TYPE DATA TIMING Big Island GSN / IMS 2-7 min

SEISMIC Amplitude Broadband Automatic PTWC and 5-15 min Loc & Mag HVO SP HON LP PTWC HON 7-20 min LP SEA LEVEL Coastal Sea NOS 15 min – 1 Level Gauges hour* Deep Ocean Hawaii 15 min – 2 Sea Level DART hours*

* for areas with coverage PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 3

Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Interactive Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Hypocenter Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Determination Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Operator Cooperating Seismic Networks Interactive Automatic Compute Magnitude Review andTsunami ETAs Determination Refinementif a Warning Interactive Magnitude YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude STEPDetermination 5 STEP 6 N STEP 5

W E

S ANALYSTSANALYSTS REVIEWREVIEW && REVISIONREVISION (1(1--33 MIN)MIN)

•• VERIFYVERIFY ITSITS AA LARGELARGE PACIFICPACIFIC EARTHQUAKE.EARTHQUAKE. •• SELECTSELECT FROMFROM AUTOMATICAUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.HYPOCENTERS. •• REVISEREVISE HYPOCENTERHYPOCENTER WITHWITH ADDITIONALADDITIONAL DATA.DATA. •• INTERACTIVELYINTERACTIVELY COMPUTECOMPUTE MAGNITUDES.MAGNITUDES. •• DECIDEDECIDE BESTBEST HYPOCENTERHYPOCENTER ANDAND MAGNITUDE.MAGNITUDE. •• COMPARECOMPARE TOTO CRITERIACRITERIA ANDAND ISSUEISSUE MESSAGE.MESSAGE. PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 3

Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination YES Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning Operator EQ Params YES InteractiveInteractive meet Initial Hypocenter Determination Review and Operator BulletinEQ Params Interactive meet Initial Refinement Review and Criteria?Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 6 STEP 5

W E

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 3 STEP 7 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Bulletin Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning

ComputeYES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Tsunami ETAs Operator EQ Params Interactive if a meetWarning Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 5 W E YES

S PTWCPTWC PACIFICPACIFIC BULLETINBULLETIN CRITERIACRITERIA

Mw less than 6.5 Earthquake Message (Mw: Moment Magnitude) Only

Tsunami Information Mw 6.5 to 7.5 Bulletin Regional Tsunami Mw 7.6 to 7.8 Warning (1000-km Limit) Expanding Warning / Mw > 7.8 Watch

Confirmed Pacific-Wide Warning Teletsunami PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin STEP 2 Significant EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Increase of Parameters and Tsunamis Warning Run Forecast Threat? Model Based on all Available NO Monitor for EQ Data Operator Parameters Evaluates Is There No Issue Bulletin from other Continuing Further YES to Cancel Observatories Threat Threat? Warning

Compute NO Tsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Information Information?

Monitor Sea NO Level Gauge Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin Supplement YES to Continue (every hour)? Warning

Monitor Media for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to STEP 1 N Contact EQ Region for Tsunami W EReports

S STEP 1 PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

Further Refine STEP 1 STEP STEP2 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 EQ Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin Parameters STEP 2 Significant EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Run Forecast Increase of Parameters and Tsunamis Warning Run Forecast Threat? Model BasedModel Based on all Available NO Monitor for EQ Data on all AvailableOperator MonitorParameters for EQ Data Evaluates Is There No Issue Bulletin from other Continuing Further YES to Cancel ParametersObservatories Threat Threat? Warning from other Compute NO ObservatoriesTsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Information Information?

ComputeMonitor Sea NO TsunamiLevel ETAs Gauge Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin if Haven’t Supplement YES to Continue Already (every hour)? Warning Monitor Media for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to STEP 1 N MonitorContact Sea EQ Region for Level GaugeTsunami W DataEReports

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

Compute NO Tsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Monitor Media Information for Tsunami Information? Monitor Sea NO ReportsLevel Gauge Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin Supplement YES to Continue (every hour)? Warning

Monitor Media Contactfor Tsunami EQ NO Reports Region for Go back to Tsunami STEP 1 N Contact EQ ReportsRegion for E Tsunami W EReports

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin STEP 2 STEPSignificant 3 EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Increase of Parameters and Tsunamis Warning Run Forecast Threat? Model Based on all Available Historical NO Monitor for EQ STEPData 2 Operator Parameters Evaluates EarthquakesIs There No Issue Bulletin from other Continuing Further YES to Cancel Observatories Threat and TsunamisThreat? Warning Run Forecast

Compute Model Based NO Tsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t on all Available Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Data Operator Information EvaluatesInformation? Monitor Sea NO Level Gauge Continuing Data ThreatIs It Time for a Issue Bulletin Supplement YES to Continue (every hour)? Warning

Monitor Media for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to STEP 1 N Contact EQ Region for Tsunami W EReports

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5

Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin STEP 2 STEP 4 Significant STEP 5 EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Increase of Parameters and Tsunamis Warning Run Forecast Threat? Model Based on all Available Is There a NO Monitor for EQ Data Operator Issue Bulletin Significant YES Parameters Evaluates Is There No Issueto Bulletin Upgrade from other ContinuingIncrease of Further YES to Cancel Observatories Threat Threat? WarningWarning Threat? Compute NO Tsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t NO Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Information Information? Is There No Issue Bulletin Monitor Sea NO YES Level Gauge Further to Cancel Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin Threat? Supplement YES to ContinueWarning (every hour)? Warning

Monitor Media NO for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to STEP 1 N Contact EQ Region for Tsunami W EReports

S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins

STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 NO Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin STEP 2 Significant EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Increase of Parameters and TsunamisIs There Warning Run Forecast Threat? Issue Bulletin Model Based Significant YES NO to with New on all Available New Monitor for EQ Data Operator Information Parameters EvaluatesInformation?Is There No Issue Bulletin from other Continuing Further YES to Cancel Observatories Threat Threat? Warning NO Compute NO Tsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New Is It Time for aNew Issue Bulletin Information SupplementInformation? YES to Continue Monitor Sea (every hour)? NO Warning Level Gauge Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin Supplement YES to Continue NO (every hour)? Warning Monitor Media for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to Go back to STEP 1 N Contact EQ STEP 1 Region for Tsunami W EReports

S ISSUEISSUE MESSAGEMESSAGE && ALERTALERT PUBLICPUBLIC

Text Designated Agencies of GTS SIRENS Countries

AFTN TV US Interests PTWC in the Public FAX Pacific RADIO

EMAIL RAYNET Hawaii Civil Defense EMWIN TALK DesignatedDesignated AgenciesAgencies mustmust bebe preparedprepared withwith anan OperationsOperations PlanPlan toto respondrespond quicklyquickly andand alertalert thethe publicpublic whenwhen necessarynecessary basedbased uponupon thethe informationinformation receivedreceived fromfrom PTWCPTWC andand anyany supplementalsupplemental datadata oror informationinformation theythey maymay receive.receive. ThisThis couldcould includeinclude adviceadvice fromfrom locallocal experts.experts. ISSUE TIME OF PTWC INITIAL BULLETINS FOR TELESEISMS 100

E 80

20 MINUTES SINCE QUAK

0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 EVENT TIME (YEAR) PTWCPTWC OPERATIONSOPERATIONS FORFOR AA LOCALLOCAL HAWAIIHAWAII TSUNAMITSUNAMI HAWAII LOCAL TSUNAMI THREAT REPEAT OF 1868 OR 1975

~15 MINUTES

TRAVEL TIME HILO

KONA HAWAII REGIONAL TSUNAMI THREAT SOUTHWEST COAST EVENT

HONOLULU

~30 MINUTES TRAVEL TIME HAWAIIHAWAII EVENTEVENT ALARMSALARMS TYPE DATA TIMING Big Island CREST 20-30 sec

SEISMIC Amplitude Broadband Automatic PTWC and 20-30 sec Loc & Mag HVO SP HON SP/LP PTWC HON 1 min SP & LP Runup Runup 2-10 min SEA LEVEL Detectors Coastal Sea NOS 5-10 min Level Gauges Deep Ocean Hawaii 5-10 min Sea Level DART RESPONSERESPONSE TIMETIME TOTO ALARMSALARMS

NOW: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS)

2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING)

OPS CENTER QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS 1 2 5 3 4 ANALYSTSANALYSTS REVIEWREVIEW && REVISIONREVISION (1(1--33 MIN)MIN)

•• VERIFYVERIFY ITSITS ANAN ACTUALACTUAL LOCALLOCAL EARTHQUAKE.EARTHQUAKE. •• SELECTSELECT FROMFROM AUTOMATICAUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.HYPOCENTERS. •• REVISEREVISE HYPOCENTERHYPOCENTER WITHWITH ADDITIONALADDITIONAL DATA.DATA. •• INTERACTIVELYINTERACTIVELY COMPUTECOMPUTE MAGNITUDES.MAGNITUDES. •• DECIDEDECIDE BESTBEST HYPOCENTERHYPOCENTER ANDAND MAGNITUDE.MAGNITUDE. •• CHECKCHECK RUNUPRUNUP ANDAND SEASEA LEVELLEVEL DATA.DATA. •• COMPARECOMPARE TOTO CRITERIACRITERIA ANDAND ISSUEISSUE MESSAGE.MESSAGE. HAWAIIHAWAII BULLETINBULLETIN CRITERIACRITERIA Mag 4 - 6.8 Earthquake Message Only Mag 4 - 6.8 with Warning to nearest runup or coastal counties gauge signal Mw 6.9 – 7.5 Warning to nearest counties Mw > 7.5 Statewide Warning

Confirmed Major Statewide Warning Local Tsunami ISSUEISSUE MESSAGEMESSAGE && ALERTALERT PUBLICPUBLIC

Voice State & County HAWAS Emer Ops

SIRENS State & County PTWC Text Warning Pts Public

Honolulu EAS

FAX Forecast Office NWR TheThe PublicPublic mustmust bebe educatededucated toto respondrespond immediatelyimmediately basedbased uponupon havinghaving feltfelt shakingshaking fromfrom thethe earthquakeearthquake andand uponupon hearinghearing sirens,sirens, EAS,EAS, oror NWRNWR alerts.alerts. ThereThere isis nono timetime toto verifyverify thethe warningwarning oror waitwait forfor instructions.instructions. ISSUE TIME OF PTWC BULLETINS FOR HAWAII EVENTS 30

10 ELAPSED MINUTES

0 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 EVENT TIME (YEAR) 100%100% OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL RELIABILITYRELIABILITY

• POWER: All operational systems on a central UPS backed up by a generator with one week of fuel. • CENTER HARDWARE: Hardware duplicated into primary and redundant systems. • DATA SOURCES: Seismic and sea level data come from multiple sources. • DATA COMMUNICATIONS: Data is sent to PTWC over multiple links whenever possible. 100%100% OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL RELIABILITYRELIABILITY

• DATA PROCESSING: Multiple algorithms for EQ detection, alerting, locations, magnitudes, and model guidance. • MESSAGING: Multiple dissemination methods to reach designated contact points by multiple means. • DUTY PERSONS: Two persons always on duty on the Center compound. • BACKUP CENTER: PTWC and WC/ATWC provide backup service for each other. LONGLONG TERMTERM SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABILITY

• NATIONAL SUPPORT: National commitment to Center operations. As a part of the US National Weather Service, certain resources and expertise are shared with this organization that also does 24x7 monitoring of the environment and issues advisories, watches, and warnings. • ORGANIZATIONAL SUPPORT: Organizations of stakeholders such as ITSU (international), NTHMP (national), and TTRC (local) that include emergency managers, warning center operators, and scientists provide authoritative sustained focus on tsunami issues. LONGLONG TERMTERM SUSTAINABILITYSUSTAINABILITY

• MULTI-FUNCTION SEISMIC: Seismic stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including earthquake monitoring, volcano monitoring, and geophysical research. • MULTI-FUNCTION SEA LEVEL: Sea level stations operated by multiple organizations for multiple purposes including tides, storm surge, El Niño, and long-term sea level rise. • MULTI-FUNCTION COMMUNICATIONS: Data communications methods shared when possible. Message disseminations over multi-purpose circuits such as GTS, AFTN, EMWIN. Components of a Tsunami Resilient Community

RESEARCH HAZARD AND RISK ASSESSMENT PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE

Historical x Government Data Tsunami Vulnerability Policy Makers Sources = Emergency Risk Managers Numerical And Bathymetry Models Scientific Topography Advisors TSUNAMI Forecast Models RESILIENT Inundation and COMMUNITY Evacuation Maps Sea Level Observations: Coastal and Education, Deep Ocean Training, and Tsunami Forecasts Outreach Seismic Warning And Observations Centers Warnings Mitigation Other Observations Response Plan WARNING GUIDANCE RESEARCH THANKTHANK YOUYOU