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THE NEXT DESTRUCTIVE : IT’S NOT IF, BUT WHEN. TSUNAMI PHENOMENA

• SERIES OF WAVES GENERATED BY A DISPLACEMENT OF SEAWATER • MOST GENERATED BY • 5 TO 60 MINUTES BETWEEN WAVE CRESTS • WAVELENGTHS ARE MUCH LONGER THAN THE OCEAN DEPTH • SPEED DEPENDS ON WATER DEPTH

DIFFERENT TYPES OF OCEAN WAVES

TYPE CAUSE TIME / CYCLE

SEA & WIND 2 - 25 SEC SWELL

TSUNAMIS RAPID OCEAN 5 - 60 MIN DISPLACEMENT

TIDES ASTRONOMICAL > 12 HRS CYCLES Estimated Tsunami Travel Times

Hourly Contours WHY IS A TSUNAMI A HAZARD?

• WAVES GROW IN SHALLOW WATER

• BEST CASE - QUICKLY RISING

• WORST CASE - WALL OF TURBULENT WATER WITH ROCKS AND DEBRIS

• RUNUPS OF 100 FT OR MORE

• DANGER FOR MANY HOURS

• HIGH FATALITY HAZARD LA MANZANILLA WATERFRONT MANZANILLO, MEXICO TSUNAMI 9 OCT 95 April 1, 1946 Tsunami coming ashore near Hilo, . Maximum flooding was 6 m. April 1, 1946 tsunami striking Hilo, Hawaii harbor. The man (arrow) was swept to his death. The first wave of a tsunami may be a receding wave. TWO TSUNAMI THREATS

• LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI – GENERATED NEARBY (EQ EFFECTS) – STRIKES SHORE QUICKLY – MAY BE NO TIME FOR OFFICIAL WARNING – HIGHEST RUNUPS – DAMAGES ONLY TO LIMITED AREA • DISTANT TSUNAMI OR TELETSUNAMI – GENERATED BY FAR AWAY – MORE TIME AVAILABLE FOR WARNING – MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE FLORES IS. 1,600 CASUALTIES DEC 12, 1992 THE MUSLIM VILLAGE ON BABI ISLAND WAS COMPLETELY SWEPT AWAY. SEA OF TSUNAMI 230 CASUALTIES 12 JULY 1993 TOTAL DESTRUCTION ON THE AONAE PENINSULA. TWO TSUNAMI THREATS

• LOCAL / REGIONAL TSUNAMI – GENERATED NEARBY – STRIKE SHORE QUICKLY – MAY BE NO TIME FOR OFFICIAL WARNING – HIGHEST RUNUPS • DISTANT TSUNAMI – GENERATED BY EARTHQUAKE FAR AWAY – MORE TIME AVAILABLE FOR WARNING – WIDESPREAD DAMAGE DAMAGE ON ISLA CHILOE, FROM THE MAY 22, 1960 TSUNAMI. 200 CASUALTIES WERE REPORTED HERE. TSUNAMI MITIGATION

• HAZARD ASSESSMENT • WARNING SYSTEMS • EDUCATIONAL PROGRAMS • LAND USE • BUILDING CODES • DEFENSE WORKS IOC/UNESCO International Coordination Group for the in the Pacific (ITSU)

• ESTABLISHED IN 1965 • PROMOTES COOPERATION AND COORDINATION OF MITIGATION ACTIVITIES • 25 MEMBER STATES ONE OF SIX JAPANESE TSUNAMI WARNING CENTERS PETROPAVLOVSK- KAMCHATSKIYE TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER (RUSSIA) FRENCH POLYNESIA TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN PAPEETE CHILE TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER IN VALPARAISO PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER OPERATIONS AREA PTWC RESPONSIBILITIES

• REGIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR HAWAII (LOCAL TSUNAMI) • US NATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR ALL US ASSETS IN THE PACIFIC OUTSIDE WC/ATWC AOR • INTERNATIONAL TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER FOR MOST AND PACIFIC ISLAND COUNTRIES PTWC STAFF

• 5 GEOPHYSICISTS - TWO ALWAYS ON DUTY • 1/2 SYSTEM ADMINISTRATOR • 3 ELECTRONICS TECHNICIANS • 1 ADMINISTRATIVE ASSISTANT TWOTWO MAINMAIN CATEGORIESCATEGORIES OFOF PROCEDURESPROCEDURES ANDAND PROTOCOLSPROTOCOLS

• DISTANT TSUNAMI SOURCES: Some time to prepare • LOCAL TSUNAMI SOURCES: Little or no time to prepare MAGNITUDEMAGNITUDE THRESHOLDTHRESHOLD FORFOR WARNINGSWARNINGS

• > 7.5 FOR PACIFIC EVENTS • > 6.8 FOR HAWAII EVENTS • BASE ON HISTORICAL DATA AND MODELS • CONSIDER EQ-TRIGGERED LANDSLIDES • BALANCE BETWEEN NUMBER OF FALSE WARNINGS VERSUS NUMBER OF MISSED EVENTS FALSEFALSE WARNINGSWARNINGS

• FALSE WARNINGS WILL OCCUR - PREPARE & EDUCATE PUBLIC, MEDIA, EMER. MGRS • 3 OUT OF 4 HAWAII EVACUATIONS ARE FOR NON-DESTRUCTIVE • NO WARNING SYSTEM, NO FALSE WARNINGS OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL GOALS:GOALS: IMPROVEIMPROVE

• SPEED – Automate & maximize efficiency of interactive processes • ACCURACY – Use best data & scientific techniques for task • RELIABILITY – Robust systems and no single points-of-failure • EFFECTIVENESS – Warning system saves lives PTWC PACIFIC BULLETINS: ELAPSED TIME TO ISSUANCE

120

100

80

ES 60 NUT I M 40

20

0 01/03/93 01/03/94 01/03/95 01/03/96 01/02/97 01/02/98 01/02/99 01/02/00 01/01/01 01/01/02 DATE MWP RESPONSE TIME

60

50 ) N I M

( 40 E M I

T 30 SED

P 20 A EL 10

0 970 980 990 1000 1010 1020 1030 1040 1050 BULLETIN TIME OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL PROCEDURESPROCEDURES

• ALARM (Hawaii <1 min, Pacific <5 min) • EQ EVALUATION (location, depth, magnitude) • INITIAL MESSAGE • SEA LEVEL EVALUATION (confirm, how big) • DECISION-MAKING (historical, model) • CONTINUE, UPGRADE, CANCEL WARNING TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

• COLLECTION / ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC DATA • COLLECTION / ANALYSIS OF SEA LEVEL DATA • DECISION MAKING • CREATION / DISSEMINATION OF MESSAGES

CONTINUOUS DISPLAY TO MONITOR SEISMIC TRACES DISPLAY FOR MANUAL PICKING OF SEISMIC TRACES SELECT AUTOMATIC SOLUTION FOR PACIFIC EVENT INTERACTIVE TOOL TO REFINE EARTHQUAKE SOLUTION INCLUDING DEPTH INTERACTIVE TOOL TO DETERMINE MWP MOMENT MAGNITUDE DISPLAY FOR AUTOMATIC SURFACE WAVE MAGNITUDES DISPLAY FOR AUTOMATIC MOMENT MAGNITUDE FROM MANTLE MAGNITUDE TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

• COLLECTION / ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC DATA • COLLECTION / ANALYSIS OF SEA LEVEL DATA • DECISION MAKING • CREATION / DISSEMINATION OF MESSAGES

INTERACTIVE DISPLAY AND MEASURE OF SEA LEVEL DATA DEEP OCEAN, REAL TIME The tsunami TSUNAMI REPORTING SYSTEM signal is detected by a pressure sensor on the ocean floor. That signal is relayed by acoustic telemetry to the bouy. The buoy in turn transmits the signal via satellite back to the warning centers. MOORED DEEP-OCEAN TSUNAMI BUOY TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER OPERATIONAL ACTIVITIES

• COLLECTION / ANALYSIS OF SEISMIC DATA • COLLECTION / ANALYSIS OF SEA LEVEL DATA • DECISION MAKING • CREATION / DISSEMINATION OF MESSAGES TYPESTYPES OFOF TSUNAMITSUNAMI MESSAGESMESSAGES

• INFORMATION BULLETIN: Large earthquake but no tsunami threat (good for practicing) • ADVISORY: Warning issued elsewhere, possibility of upgrade to watch or warning • WATCH: Warning issued elsewhere, first wave is 3-6 hours away • WARNING: First wave is less than 3 hours away MESSAGEMESSAGE CONTENTCONTENT • HEADER: Bulletin #, Who From, Date/Time • BANNER: Type - Information, Advisory, Watch, Warning • WHERE APPLIES: Name Warning and Watch Areas • EARTHQUAKE: Preliminary Parameters • OBSERVATIONS: Sea Level Readings, Reports • EVALUATION: Assessment of Threat and Why • ARRIVAL TIMES: Estimates for First Wave • WHAT NEXT: When/If Another Bulletin will be Issued SAMPLESAMPLE WARNING/WATCHWARNING/WATCH MESSAGEMESSAGE

TSUNAMI BULLETIN NUMBER 001 PACIFIC TSUNAMI WARNING CENTER/NOAA/NWS ISSUED AT 1953Z 04 OCT 2002

THIS BULLETIN IS FOR ALL AREAS OF THE PACIFIC BASIN EXCEPT ALASKA, , , OREGON, AND .

...... A TSUNAMI WARNING AND WATCH ARE IN EFFECT ......

A TSUNAMI WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR: FIJI, SAMOA, AMERICAN SAMOA, NEW CALEDONIA, , COOK ISLANDS

A TSUNAMI WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR: NAURU, FR. POLYNESIA, MARSHALL IS., KIRIBATI, KOSRAE, JOHNSTON IS., POHNPEI, WAKE IS., CHUUK

FOR ALL OTHER PACIFIC AREAS, THIS MESSAGE IS FOR INFORMATION ONLY.

MESSAGEMESSAGE COMMUNICATIONSCOMMUNICATIONS

• Gets to and alerts target (EMs, Public) • Reliable (daily circuit tests) • Easy and fast to use • 24-hour help • Backup method(s) • Delivery Confirmation • Text good, Graphics better STRUCTURESTRUCTURE FORFOR DEVELOPMENTDEVELOPMENT OFOF PROCEDURESPROCEDURES ANDAND PROTOCOLSPROTOCOLS

WARNING CENTER OPERATORS

ITSU & TTRC TSUNAMI EMERGENCY SCIENTISTS MANAGERS CONCLUSIONSCONCLUSIONS

• PROCEDURES / PROTOCOLS DEVELOPED IN COOPERATION WITH STAKEHOLDERS • STAKEHOLDERS EDUCATED ABOUT SYSTEM LIMITATIONS • WARNING OPERATIONS AS FAST, ACCURATE, RELIABLE, EFFECTIVE AS POSSIBLE

THANK YOU