RichardRichard H.H. HagemeyerHagemeyer PacificPacific TsunamiTsunami WarningWarning CenterCenter Regional/NationalRegional/National LevelLevel ofof TARNSTARNS SystemSystem CONOPSCONOPS inin thethe UnitedUnited StatesStates Charles S. McCreery, PTWC Director TSUNAMI ALERT RAPID NOTIFICATION SYSTEM (TARNS) FIRST WORKSHOP: SYSTEM DESIGN AND PLAN 24-27 May, 2006, Sailom Hotel in Hua Hin, Thailand JMA: NWPTAC & WC/ATWC AOR Indian Ocean (Interim) U.S./Canada HAWAII: Atlantic and Local, Regional, & Gulf Coasts Distant Tsunamis Puerto Rico & Virgin Islands S. China Sea & (Interim) PACIFIC BASIN: Caribbean Regional and (Interim) Distant Tsunamis Indian Ocean (Interim) PTWC Area of Responsibility PTWCPTWC KEYKEY OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL ACTIVITIESACTIVITIES •• SEISMICSEISMIC DATADATA COLLECTIONCOLLECTION && ANALYSESANALYSES •• TSUNAMITSUNAMI WAVEWAVE MEASUREMENTSMEASUREMENTS •• DECISIONDECISION--MAKINGMAKING PROCESSESPROCESSES •• MESSAGEMESSAGE CREATIONCREATION && DISSEMINATIONDISSEMINATION KEYKEY OPERATIONALOPERATIONAL GOALSGOALS •• FASTERFASTER •• MOREMORE ACCURATEACCURATE •• MOREMORE RELIABLERELIABLE •• MOREMORE EFFECTIVEEFFECTIVE THETHE GENERALGENERAL CONCEPTCONCEPT Threat Evacuation Safety Evaluation Decision Response Designated ALERT DATA PTWC MESSAGE Government Public Authority TWOTWO GENERALGENERAL CASESCASES Local Tsunami • Must Respond in Minutes from Earthquake • No Time for Official Decisions • Immediate Public Alerting Necessary • Automatic Public Evacuation Required Regional or Teletsunami • Must Respond within a Few Hours at Most • More Time for Official Decisions • More Time to Alert and Instruct Public • Organized Evacuation Possible PTWCPTWC OPERATIONSOPERATIONS FORFOR AA TELETSUNAMITELETSUNAMI Historical Tsunami Epicenters PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins STEP 3 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 5 W E S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins STEP 3 Automatic STEPSTEP 1 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Own Bulletin Ring(s) DeterminationSTEP 2 Cooperating SeismicSeismic Networks Network Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs DeterminationData Ingest if a Warning into Memory YES InteractiveRing(s) Hypocenter Determination Cooperating Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Seismic Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Networks Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 5 W E S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for InitialSTEP Tsunami 3 Bulletins STEP 3 Automatic Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Arrival Detection and Association Detection and Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Association Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial STEPinto Memory 2 Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Data Ingest Magnitude Automatic Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning into Memory Hypocenter Ring(s) Determination YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination Automatic STEP 6 N STEP 5 Magnitude W E Determination S PTWC GeneralSTEP Processes 3 and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins Automatic STEP 3 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Arrival Detection and Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Association Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter EventSTEP Alarms 4 Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Automatic Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning Hypocenter Event Alarms Determination YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Automatic Determination STEP 6 N Magnitude STEP 5 W E Determination S RESPONSERESPONSE TIMETIME TOTO ALARMSALARMS 2005: 30 SEC DURING NORMAL WORK HOURS 2 MIN DURING AFTER HOURS (FM QUARTERS) 2006: 30 SEC AT ALL TIMES (24X7 STAFFING) OPS CENTER QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS QUARTERS 1 2 5 3 4 PACIFICPACIFIC EVENTEVENT ALARMSALARMS TYPE DATA TIMING Big Island GSN / IMS 2-7 min SEISMIC Amplitude Broadband Automatic PTWC and 5-15 min Loc & Mag HVO SP HON LP PTWC HON 7-20 min LP SEA LEVEL Coastal Sea NOS 15 min – 1 Level Gauges hour* Deep Ocean Hawaii 15 min – 2 Sea Level DART hours* * for areas with coverage PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins STEP 3 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Interactive Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Hypocenter Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Determination Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Operator Cooperating Seismic Networks Interactive Automatic Compute Magnitude Review andTsunami ETAs Determination Refinementif a Warning Interactive Magnitude YES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Determination Operator EQ Params Interactive meet Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude STEPDetermination 5 STEP 6 N STEP 5 W E S ANALYSTSANALYSTS REVIEWREVIEW && REVISIONREVISION (1(1--33 MIN)MIN) •• VERIFYVERIFY ITSITS AA LARGELARGE PACIFICPACIFIC EARTHQUAKE.EARTHQUAKE. •• SELECTSELECT FROMFROM AUTOMATICAUTOMATIC HYPOCENTERS.HYPOCENTERS. •• REVISEREVISE HYPOCENTERHYPOCENTER WITHWITH ADDITIONALADDITIONAL DATA.DATA. •• INTERACTIVELYINTERACTIVELY COMPUTECOMPUTE MAGNITUDES.MAGNITUDES. •• DECIDEDECIDE BESTBEST HYPOCENTERHYPOCENTER ANDAND MAGNITUDE.MAGNITUDE. •• COMPARECOMPARE TOTO CRITERIACRITERIA ANDAND ISSUEISSUE MESSAGE.MESSAGE. PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins STEP 3 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination YES Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning Operator EQ Params YES InteractiveInteractive meet Initial Hypocenter Determination Review and Operator BulletinEQ Params Interactive meet Initial Refinement Review and Criteria?Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 6 STEP 5 W E S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Initial Tsunami Bulletins STEP 3 STEP 7 Automatic STEP 1 Arrival Detection and Association Own STEP 2 STEP 4 STEP 7 Seismic Network Data Ingest Automatic Issue Initial Issue Initial into Memory Hypocenter Event Alarms Bulletin Ring(s) Determination Bulletin Cooperating Seismic Networks Automatic Compute Magnitude Tsunami ETAs Determination if a Warning ComputeYES Interactive Hypocenter Determination Tsunami ETAs Operator EQ Params Interactive if a meetWarning Initial Review and Bulletin Refinement Criteria? Interactive Magnitude Determination STEP 6 N STEP 5 W E YES S PTWCPTWC PACIFICPACIFIC BULLETINBULLETIN CRITERIACRITERIA Mw less than 6.5 Earthquake Message (Mw: Moment Magnitude) Only Tsunami Information Mw 6.5 to 7.5 Bulletin Regional Tsunami Mw 7.6 to 7.8 Warning (1000-km Limit) Expanding Warning / Mw > 7.8 Watch Confirmed Pacific-Wide Warning Teletsunami PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin STEP 2 Significant EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Increase of Parameters and Tsunamis Warning Run Forecast Threat? Model Based on all Available NO Monitor for EQ Data Operator Parameters Evaluates Is There No Issue Bulletin from other Continuing Further YES to Cancel Observatories Threat Threat? Warning Compute NO Tsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Information Information? Monitor Sea NO Level Gauge Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin Supplement YES to Continue (every hour)? Warning Monitor Media for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to STEP 1 N Contact EQ Region for Tsunami W EReports S STEP 1 PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins Further Refine STEP 1 STEP STEP2 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 EQ Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin Parameters STEP 2 Significant EQ Earthquakes YES to Upgrade Run Forecast Increase of Parameters and Tsunamis Warning Run Forecast Threat? Model BasedModel Based on all Available NO Monitor for EQ Data on all AvailableOperator MonitorParameters for EQ Data Evaluates Is There No Issue Bulletin from other Continuing Further YES to Cancel ParametersObservatories Threat Threat? Warning from other Compute NO ObservatoriesTsunami ETAs Is There if Haven’t Issue Bulletin Significant Already YES to with New New Information Information? ComputeMonitor Sea NO TsunamiLevel ETAs Gauge Data Is It Time for a Issue Bulletin if Haven’t Supplement YES to Continue Already (every hour)? Warning Monitor Media for Tsunami NO Reports Go back to STEP 1 N MonitorContact Sea EQ Region for Level GaugeTsunami W DataEReports S PTWC General Processes and Procedures for Supplemental Tsunami Bulletins STEP 1 STEP 3 STEP 4 STEP 5 Is There a Further Refine Historical Issue Bulletin STEP 2 Significant EQ Earthquakes