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Hong Kong Equity | China Consumer Goods Company in-depth Budweiser APAC 百威亚太 (1876 HK) ACCUMULATE People still drink Share Price Target Price Budweiser APAC is the Asia subsidiary of the world’s largest beer company AB HK$27.0 HK$23.5 InBev. Their market leading position, specifically in premium category has been targeting consumers with a desire to trade up in ongoing premiumization trend. Within their portfolio, Budweiser and Corona have strong brand equity globally China / Consumer Goods/ F&B and are appealing more to Asian consumers searching for higher quality beers. China is the most important market and the company has a 46.6% market share in 14 February 2020 premium category. But recent outbreak of coronavirus poses sudden and radical challenges. We initiate coverage with HK$27.0 TP, with 15% upside. Matthew Law (SFC CE:BDJ462) Market leader in China’s premium beers. China drank 488m HL of beer in 2018, making (852) 3519 1299 it the world’s largest market, accounting for 25% of world’s beer consumption. Chinese [email protected] consumers drink 35L per capita vs 60L+ in mature markets, showing great growth potential. The company covers value to super premium beers, allowing them to raise consumer awareness of higher quality beers while also capturing the lower end market. Latest Key Data Total shares outstanding (mn) 13,243 World class beer portfolio. AB InBev owns 50 world famous beers including Budweiser, Market capitalization (HK$mn) 311,220 Stella Artois, Corona and Hoegaarden. The company was ranked first in beer value with Enterprise value (HK$mn) 309,530 footprint in all major markets. They target higher-end consumers as they create high 12M daily average turnover (HK$mn) 499.6 quality beers with their long history in brewing lagers and wheat beers. 12M volatility (%) 20.9 PEG FY19-21E (X) 2.0 Premiumization driving catalyst for growth. The APAC markets are less mature RoE avg FY19-21E (%) 10.0 compared to US and Brazil. This offers great potential as consumers with growing P/B FY19E (x) 3.8 Net debt/equity FY18E (%) net cash disposable income trade up for better beers. Asian countries have a lower consumption per capita, which has allowed premiumization to offset declining volumes. China offers most upside in premiumization with the highest premium multiple in APAC. Performance (%) 1M YTD 12M Coronavirus outbreak will hurt sales. Since the coronavirus outbreak in Dec, clubs, bars Absolute (4) (11) (17) and restaurants have been shutting down rapidly across China. This is very impactful on Relative to HSI 0 (9) (23) the company’s sales as China is their largest contributor. Budweiser’s brewery in Wuhan has been shut down as the city has been sealed off while other parts have been dead silent. Beer sales in shops and supermarkets were not as badly affected. Major Shareholders (%) AB InBev 88.7 Challenging environment in Asia. Company does not have a meaningful presence in Vietnam and would need to acquire a local brand to break into the market. India’s challenge is slow bureaucracy with licensing troubles and irregular taxation. Combined Auditor with China’s recent coronavirus outbreak, which is the company’s largest market, our PricewaterhouseCoopers outlook for Asia is challenging for 2020 as consumers are unlikely to go out. Initiate with ACCUMULATE. Share price has been on a decline since its IPO, as its Price Chart valuation was quite demanding given the growth, but we believe 2020 will be a time for Turnover (HK$mn) Price (HK$) company to focus on its operations with lower interest costs and no more listing expenses to hold them back. We value the company using a 10-year DCF model with TP HK$27.0, implying 15% upside, 29.3x FY20E PE and 3.4x FY20E PB. Investment Summary FY-end Dec 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Turnover (US$ mn) 6,099 6,740 6,669 7,258 8,007 Chg (%) - 10.5 (1.1) 8.8 10.3 Net Profit (US$ mn) 572 959 1,083 1,356 1,588 Chg (%) - 67.7 12.9 25.4 17.1 EPS (US$) 0.043 0.072 0.082 0.102 0.120 Chg (%) - 67.7 12.9 25.4 17.1 P/E (x) 69.4 41.4 36.6 29.3 25.0 P/B (x) 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.4 3.0 Source: Bloomberg, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) P/OCF (x) 29.8 23.6 24.8 17.4 16.4 EV/EBITDA (x) 25.0 20.6 19.3 17.7 15.6 Source: Company data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Limited Please read the analyst certification, company disclosure and disclaimer in the last page 1 Hong Kong Equity | China Consumer Goods Company in-depth World’s largest beer consumption region with rising income Figure 1: Global beer volume growth (mm HL) APAC is the world’s largest beer consumption region 2,500 APAC is the world’s largest beer consumption region, accounting for 37% of global beer 63 71 consumption in 2018 and is expected to contribute 47% of the incremental growth in 2,000 beer consumption volume from 2018 to 2023. In APAC, beer comprises the largest 1,500 volume amongst alcohol drinks and is expected to remain stable over 2018 to 2023. 47% Combined with a 4.2 billion population, Asia’s demographic is continuously more 1,000 1,979 contribution of 2,113 incremental growth favorable with increasing urbanization and spending power. China’s urban population has 500 grown at 2.6% CAGR over 2013-2018 with urban disposable income three times greater 0 than rural population, showing strong potential for consumption growth. 2018 APAC ROW 2023E Figure 2: China’s disposable income per capita (urban vs rural) Source: Company Data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) (RMB) Urban Rural Urban (YoY) Rural (YoY) 45,000 42,359 12% 39,251 40,000 36,396 11% Figure 3: Global beer volume by region 33,616 35,000 (2018) 31,194 28,843 APAC (ex- 30,000 26,467 10% China), 12.1% 25,000 Europe, 9% North 25.2% 20,000 15,929 America, 14,617 13,432 12.9% 15,000 12,363 8% 10,489 11,422 9,430 10,000 7% 5,000 Others, China, 0 6% 24.9% 25.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Source: Wind, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Source: Company Data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Figure 4: China alcohol market share China’s beer market has shifted from highly fragmented to mostly consolidated (2018) In mature markets such as US and Mexico, market share is dominated by one or two Wine, brands, while less mature markets like India will have many brands splitting up market 3.7% share. In China, the top 5 breweries make up 70% of market up with Budweiser’s Harbin Spirits, ranked third (16.2%) behind CR’s Snow (23.2%) and Tsingtao (16.4%). From 2013 to 2018, 24.6% the company gained the most market share amongst the top three with 3.3%. Figure 5: Most popular beers in Asia, EU and NA (red line denotes company owned) Beer, 71.7% Source: Company Data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Figure 6: China’s urban population growth vs urban population as % of total population 8% Urban population YoY growth 80% 7% Urban population % of total 70% population (RHS) 6% 60% 5% 50% 4% 40% 3% 30% 2% 20% 1% 10% 0% 0% 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1960 Source: Company data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Source: World Bank, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) See last page for disclaimer. 2 Hong Kong Equity | China Consumer Goods Company in-depth APAC consumption per capita shows high potential for growth Figure 7: China’s beer market size Chinese consumers continuously trading up in ongoing premiumization trend Total mm HL US$ bn China’s beer market has historically been a high volume market with less focus on value 2013 539 70.3 growth. Challenges in establishing national distribution coverage due to poor 2018 488 81.8 connectivity especially away from large city centers has created a market with large 2023E 511 102.9 number of breweries. But now as consumers’ taste change, searching for better quality, Premium & the market has opened up opportunities for imported beers and craft beers. super premium mm HL US$ bn China’s beer market volume is 488 million HL in 2018, making it the largest market 2013 59 23.7 globally, accounting for 25% share of global beer volume. It is also the largest beer 2018 80 41.8 market in the region, accounting for 66% of volume and 41% of value. Despite its massive 2023E 102 62.7 size, China’s PCC is relatively low at 35L per capita, showing great potential for beer Source: Company Data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) consumption growth. Macro drivers include reduction in sales tax from 17% in 2017 to 13% in 2019 and growth from lessor developed inland regions. Figure 8: Per capita consumption vs. GDP per capita for APAC beer markets (Budweiser target markets highlighted yellow) 80 Mexico Australia 70 Mature Markets US New Zealand Brazi 60 l Vietnam 50 Japan Mid to High Maturity Markets 40 South Korea Thailand China Singapore 30 Hong Kong Taiwan Philippines Beer per capita (L/year) capita per Beer 20 10 Malaysia India Low Maturity Markets Indonesia 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 GDP per capita (US$'000) Source: Company data, Orient Securities (Hong Kong) Overall beer per capita consumption (PCC) in Asia is significantly lower than their global Figure 9: China premium and super peers (Mexico at 74L, US at 71L, Brazil at 60L), giving significant potential room for premium market share by volume (2018) growth in the Asia markets (China 35L).
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