Climate Change in the South Caucasus A Visual Synthesis Climate Change in the South Caucasus Based on official country information from the communications to the UNFCCC, scientific papers and news reports. This is a Zoï Environment Network publication produced in close cooperation with the ENVSEC Initiative and the Governments of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia. Valuable inputs were received from the Regional Climate Change Impact Study for the Caucasus Region facilitated by the UNDP. OSCE has provided support for printing and dissemination. Additional financial support was received from UNEP Vienna — Environmental Reference Centre of the Mountain Partnership. Printed on 100% recycled paper. © Zoï Environment Network 2011 The Environment and Security Initiative (ENVSEC) transforms environment Concept and security risks into regional cooperation. The Initiative provides multi- Zurab Jincharadze, Otto Simonett stakeholder environment and security assessments and facilitates joint action to reduce tensions and increase cooperation between groups and countries. Collages ENVSEC comprises the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Eu- Nina Joerchjan rope (OSCE), Regional Environmental Centre for Central and Eastern Europe (REC), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Maps and Graphics Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), United Nations Environment Manana Kurtubadze Programme (UNEP), and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) as an associated partner. The ENVSEC partners address environment and security Text and interviews risks in four regions: Eastern Europe, South Eastern Europe, Southern Cau- Zurab Jincharadze casus and Central Asia. 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We regret any errors or omissions that may unwittingly have been made. 2 Contents The South Caucasus Climate Change Trends and 6 at a Glance 18 Scenarious in the Region Greenhouse Gas Emissions Impacts of Climate Change 30 and Climate Change Mitigation 40 and Adaptation Measures 3 Foreword Climate CHANge IN THE CAUcaSUS — A MYTH NO LONgeR In Greek mythology the Caucasus is known as the place where Prometheus was chained to the mountain as punish- ment for stealing fire from Zeus and giving it to mortals. His liver is eaten by an eagle during the day, only to regenerate at night, until he is freed by Heracles who kills the eagle. In the Book of Genesis, and the Koran, Mount Ararat — close to the Caucasus — is the place where Noah’s ark is stranded, saving Noah himself, his family and the world’s animals from the great floods. So much for mythology and religion, but strangely enough, both narratives can be linked to climate change: on the one hand Prometheus bringing fire to mankind, starting a long chain of burning and releasing CO₂ to the atmosphere, eventually contributing to climate change; on the other hand Noah escaping the floods — one of the po- tential impacts of climate change. As a stark contrast to its rich cultural diversity and beau- tiful environment, in the modern day Caucasus there are several unresolved — frozen — conflicts hampering the “normal” economic development of the region since the Atlas and Prometheus. Laconian Kylix, 6th c. BCE. Vatican Museums breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991. Predicted impacts of climate change will not make the region more secure. With this publication, Zoï Environment Network aims to communicate the known facts of climate change in a well illustrated, easily understandable manner, accessible to everyone. For this we could rely on the rich Caucasian tra- dition of geographic analysis, map making and visual arts. Unfortunately, the format did not allow the use of other Cau- casian specialities, such as music, film, cuisine or toasts, it will be up to the reader to accompany his or her lecture with some of this. We do however want to make the point that also in the Caucasus, climate change is no more myth. Otto Simonett Director, Zoï Environment Network Geneva, January 2012 4 Climate Change in the South Caucasus: key findings, trends and projections INDICATORS Armenia Azerbaijan Georgia Air temperature (last half century) Precipitation and snow (last half century) Desertification Extreme weather events and climate-related hazards (1990–2009) Melting ice (last half century) Water resources availability in the future (2050–2100) Health Infectious and vector-borne diseases Greenhouse gas emissions 1990–2005 Greenhouse gas emissions 2000–2005 Policy instruments, actions and awareness Climate observation and weather services (1990–2009) increase, enchancement decrease, reduction increase in some areas Sources: Second National Communications of Armenia, 2010; Azerbaijan, 2010; Georgia, 2009. 5 Alazani valley from Sighnaghi, GEORGIA The South Caucasus at a Glance G Caspian Sochi r Depression Terek e Elbrus a Nalchik 5 642 t Abkhazia Grozny Magas Makhachkala Sukhumi Vladikavkaz Shkhara i r 5 068 u g Sulak I n CASPIAN Rioni 5 033 Kazbek C RUSSIAN SEA Colchis a FEDERATION BLACK Plain Kutaisi SEA Poti Rioni Tskhinvali u Alazani c GEORGIA Kura L Gori e Telavi a Batumi Adjara s Akhaltsikhe Tbilisi Iori s s Rustavi e Samur Kura u r Kura s Sheki s n Alaverdi i Debed t a Gyumri Mingechevir n i) o u h Vanadzor reserv. M ok Ganja Sumgayit i c or Mingechevir P o n t Ch Kars ARMENIA uh ( C Çor 4 090 Absheron n Aragats a d a z Lake AZERBAIJAN a Baku Armenian r Sevan Armavir H u Yerevan metres c Kura 4,000 Nagorno 3,000 TURKEY a Karabakh Kura-Aras Ararat 2,000 Aras 5 165 s Lachin Khankendi Depression 1,500 Goris (Stepanakert) 1,000 Highland AZ u 500 Neftchala Nakhchivan s Kapan 200 Aras 0 Nakhchivan Depression 0 Meghri -500 Talysh -1,000 Lankaran -1,500 Lake Van Van IRAN Glaciers 0 100 km 8 Climate Change in the South Caucasus G Caspian Sochi r Depression Terek e Elbrus a Nalchik 5 642 t Abkhazia Grozny Magas GENERAL OVERVIEW Makhachkala Sukhumi Vladikavkaz The South Caucasus is located in the south-eastern part of Europe, Shkhara i r 5 068 between the Black and Caspian Seas. The furthest western and east- u g Sulak ern boundaries of the region lie between 40°01’ and 50°25’ E, while I n CASPIAN Rioni 5 033 the northern and southern ones are between 43°35’ and 38°23’ N. The Kazbek C RUSSIAN SEA Colchis a FEDERATION region is bordered by Turkey and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the BLACK Plain South and by the Russian Federation in the North. The three South Kutaisi SEA Poti Rioni Tskhinvali u Caucasian republics — Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia — gained Alazani c independence after the fall of the former Soviet Union in 1991. Shortly GEORGIA Kura L Gori after independence the region underwent devastating ethnic and civil e Telavi a Batumi wars, the consequences of which are still to be overcome. Adjara s Akhaltsikhe Tbilisi Iori s s Rustavi e Samur Kura u UKRAINE r KAZAKHSTAN Kura s Sheki s n Alaverdi i Debed AZOV t a Gyumri Mingechevir SEA n i) RUSSIAN FEDERATION o u h Vanadzor reserv. M ok Ganja Sumgayit i c or Mingechevir P o n t Ch Kars ARMENIA uh ( C NORTH CAUCASUS Çor 4 090 Absheron n Aragats a d a z Lake AZERBAIJAN BLACK a Baku Armenian r Sevan SEA CASPIAN Armavir H u SEA Yerevan metres c Kura GEORGIA 4,000 Nagorno SOUTH 3,000 TURKEY a Karabakh Kura-Aras CAUCASUS Ararat 2,000 Aras ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN 5 165 s Lachin Khankendi Depression 1,500 (Stepanakert) Goris TURKEY AZ 1,000 Highland AZ u 500 Neftchala Nakhchivan s Kapan 200 Aras 0 Nakhchivan Depression 0 Meghri -500 Talysh IRAN -1,000 Lankaran -1,500 CYPRUS Lake Van SYRIA IRAQ Van IRAN LEBANON Glaciers 0 100 km 0 150 km The South Caucasus at a Glance 9 Average Annual Temperatures in the South Caucasus Nalchik Abkhazia Terek Magas Grozny Makhachkala Sukhumi i r Vladikavkaz u g Sulak I n Rioni RUSSIAN BLACK CASPIAN Kutaisi Tskhinvali FEDERATION SEA Poti Rioni SEA Alazani GEORGIA Gori Kura Batumi Telavi Adjara Tbilisi Akhaltsikhe Rustavi Iori Samur Kura Sheki Kura Alaverdi Debed i) Mingechevir kh Gyumri Vanadzor ro reserv. ho Ganja Sumgayit (C Çoruh TURKEY ARMENIA Mingechevir Kars an d z a Lake AZERBAIJAN r Sevan Baku Armavir H Aras Yerevan Nagorno- Kura Temperature (°C) Karabakh 16.0° Lachin Khankendi 13.0° Goris (Stepanakert) 10.0° AZ Neftchala Nakhchivan Kapan 7.0° Aras 5.0° Lake Nakhchivan Van Meghri 1.5° -1.0° Source: State Hydro-meteorological Services of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia; IRAN 0 100 km World Trade Press, 2007.