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Vehicle Market Insights Through March 2020

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Vehicle Market Insights Through March 2020 Vehicle Market Insights Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Call - July 8, 2020 Jonathan Smoke & Zo Rahim Special Guest: Whitney Gerkin 1 INVENTORY RETAIL FINANCIAL MOBILITY COVID-19 Market Update Covid-19 Local Impact Assessment Source: Cox Automotive 4 Continuing Claims At 19.3 Million Nationally Source: U.S. Department of Labor 5 Consumer Sentiment Moves Down Again Morning Consult’s Index of Consumer Sentiment on Monday was down 23.4% since February 29 ICS Value (7-Day Average) 120 114.23 113.8 110 100 90 86.81 80 81.23 70 60 Source: Morning Consult 6 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% New 10% 20% 30% 40% 0% Jan-06 Jun-06 Sales Down But Recovering Vehicle Nov-06 Apr-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 y/y % Change New Total Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Aug-15 Source: Source: BEA Jan-16 Jun-16 Nov-16 Apr-17 Sep-17 Feb-18 Jul-18 Dec-18 May-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 7 New Vehicle Market Share Performance – 1H 2020 CHEVROLET 0.59 NISSAN -1.65 KIA 0.47 DODGE -0.65 MAZDA 0.36 BUICK -0.19 HYUNDAI 0.29 BMW -0.19 TESLA 0.28 MITSUBISHI -0.10 RAM 0.22 INFINITI -0.10 JEEP 0.17 CHRYSLER -0.08 TOYOTA 0.17 CADILLAC -0.07 GMC 0.14 MINI -0.05 LINCOLN 0.12 FIAT -0.02 SUBARU 0.12 AUDI -0.02 VOLVO 0.07 FORD -0.02 VOLKSWAGEN 0.06 JAGUAR -0.01 LEXUS 0.05 HONDA -0.01 LAND ROVER 0.02 ACURA 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 -2.00 -1.50 -1.00 -0.50 0.00 Source: Cox Automotive 8 New Vehicle Market Share Performance – 1H 2020 Full-size Pickup Truck 2.41 Compact Car -1.83 Mid-size SUV/Crossover 1.36 Mid-size Car -0.82 Subcompact SUV/Crossover 1.12 Subcompact Car -0.80 Mid-size Pickup Truck 0.68 Minivan -0.62 Luxury Compact SUV/Crossover 0.22 Full-size Car -0.53 Luxury Mid-size SUV/Crossover 0.17 Luxury Car -0.44 Compact SUV/Crossover 0.07 Van -0.30 Luxury Full-size SUV/Crossover 0.03 Entry-level Luxury Car -0.27 High-end Luxury Car 0.01 Full-size SUV/Crossover -0.24 Electric Vehicle 0.00 Hybrid/Alternative Energy Car -0.20 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 -2.20 -1.70 -1.20 -0.70 -0.20 0.30 Source: Cox Automotive 9 -70.0% -60.0% -50.0% -40.0% -30.0% -20.0% -10.0% Retail Retail Sales Recovery Estimates 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 0.0% 1/6 1/10 1/14 1/18 1/22 1/26 1/30 2/3 2/7 Y/Y % Change 7 inChange % Y/Y 2/11 2/15 2/19 2/23 2/27 3/2 3/6 3/10 - 3/14 Sales Retail of Average Day Moving 3/18 3/22 New 3/26 3/30 4/3 4/7 Used 4/11 4/15 4/19 4/23 Source: Cox Automotive Source: Cox 4/27 5/1 5/5 5/9 5/13 5/17 5/21 5/25 5/29 6/2 6/6 6/10 6/14 6/18 6/22 6/26 6/30 7/4 10 Update: Manheim’s Shift to All-Digital Whitney Gerkin Digital Marketplace Director Manheim ACCESSING MANHEIM INVENTORY TODAY SIMULCAST DIGITAL BLOCKS (In-Lane Bidding) MANHEIM.COM OVE / PRIVATE STORES MANHEIM EXPRESS 12 OPERATIONAL UPDATES SINCE GOING ALL-DIGITAL Welcomed sellers back on the block at all locations. Welcomed buyers to preview vehicles on the lot at all locations. Piloting in-lane bidding "Digital Blocks" at select locations. 13 DIGITAL WHOLESALE IS STRONG Manheim’s sales rates are now higher than pre-COVID levels. January through June, Manheim experienced 1.5+ million digital transactions, which is more than 20% higher than the same period in 2019. OVE sales were up nearly 70 percent in June compared to last year. Source: Manheim Data 14 MANHEIM DIGITAL COVID-19 SNAPSHOT 6 in 10 DEALERS SAY THAT SIMULCAST IS 8300+ WORKING AS A BUYERS MADE FIRST REPLACEMENT TIME PURCHASES ON SIMULCAST STATS: MANHEIM DIGITAL MARKETPLACE 23,000 SIMULCAST SALES OCCURRED ON A SINGLE DAY IN JUNE, A RECORD ON THE ~40% PLATFORM IS THE INCREASE IN USAGE OF SIMULCAST 8200+ REMOTE SELLER SINCE VEHICLES SOLD IN A MARCH 16 WEEK AT MANHEIM PA IN JUNE, 900 HIGHER THAN SAME WEEK 2019 15 SIMULCAST ATTENDANCE & BIDDING ARE ON THE RISE Simulcast Attendance & Bidding in 2020 400 10.0 350 9.0 8.0 Bids Per Unique Offer 300 7.0 250 6.0 200 5.0 150 4.0 3.0 100 2.0 Attendees Attendees Per Lane 50 1.0 0 0.0 Attendees Per Lane Bids Per Unique Offer Source: Manheim Data 16 “The system is really easy and I really enjoy it. I'll be honest. I was one of the biggest skeptics against it because I really hadn't tried it and I couldn't get over the idea of bidding online. But since I've done it the last few weeks I do like it. The more I use it, the more I like it.” -Manheim Dealer Client • Wholesale will remain heavily digital for the foreseeable future. We’re going all-in on vehicle imaging. WHAT’S NEXT FOR WHOLESALE? New vehicle tracking technologies will make it easier to locate and preview inventory. In-lane bidding is contingent on safety first. 19 Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index Concept: A single measure of used vehicle price change that is independent of underlying segment shifts in the characteristics of vehicles being sold Steps: All Manheim U.S. sales Classify by market segment Account for differences in mileage Weight to provide smoother segment mix Seasonally adjust Record-Setting Rebound In Wholesale Prices Prices in June increased 8.95% from May 2020 and were up 6.3% compared to June 2019 155 150 149.3 145 140 135 130 125 120 115 110 105 100 95 January 1995 = 100 90 Jan-95 Jan-98 Jan-01 Jan-04 Jan-07 Jan-10 Jan-13 Jan-16 Jan-19 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 20 Used Vehicle Values Back to Pre-Covid Strength Year-over-year price performance stronger than average 25% 20% 15% 10% 6.3% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Jan-96 Jan-99 Jan-02 Jan-05 Jan-08 Jan-11 Jan-14 Jan-17 Jan-20 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 21 Manheim Index versus Mix & Quality Adjusted New Vehicle Price with 3 ½ year Lag Used vehicle prices back above the historical new vehicle price relationship trend 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Manheim/Cox Automotive 22 Wholesale Used Vehicle Prices vs. New Vehicle Prices Manheim Non-Adjusted Price (LHS) Average new vehicle transaction price per KBB (RHS) $15,500 $41,000 $39,000 $14,500 $37,000 $13,500 $35,000 $12,500 $33,000 $31,000 $11,500 $29,000 $10,500 $27,000 $9,500 $25,000 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 23 2020 Weekly Price Trend More Than Recovered 2020 spring bounce ended abruptly as COVID-19 pandemic hit the US but prices more than recovered in weeks since 3-Year-Old Model MMR Index by Week 2014-2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 110.0% 105.0% 100.0% 95.0% 90.0% 85.0% 80.0% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 24 Retention Values Ended June Up 1.9% Relative to 2019 Relative to MSRP and fixing the basket of vehicles by what was sold leaves residuals following similar pattern 63% 61% 59% 57% 55% 53% 51% 49% 47% CY 2018 CY 2019 CY 2020 (1 to 3 year-old models) 45% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Kelley Blue Book/Cox Automotive 25 Percent Change in Wholesale Prices for Major Market Segments Most major segments saw year-over-year gains in June 22% 1 year 2 years 3 years 17% 4 years 12% 9.7% 7% 6.3% 5.9% 4.6% 4.0% 1.8% 2% -3% -3.5% -8% Industry Compact cars Midsize cars Luxury cars Pickups SUV/CUV Vans Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 26 Average Auction Price – Rental Risk Units Average price for rental risk units sold in June up 3.4% y/y and up 8.9% m/m 17,000 2016 2017 16,500 2018 2019 16,000 2020 15,500 15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 27 Distribution of Rental Risk Vehicles 2018 Q2 2019 Q2 2020 Q2 Number of unique year, make, model, body configurations 3,023 3,337 3,090 sold Share accounted for top 10 YMMB 13.5% 12.0% 14.0% Share accounted for top 25 YMMB 22.9% 22.3% 25.9% Number of YMMB to reach 50% share 109 106 86 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 28 Average Mileage – Rental Risk Units Sold at Auction Average mileage for rental risk units in June was down 7% compared to a year ago and down 6% m/m 60,000 55,000 50,000 45,000 43,473 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17 Jan-19 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 29 Rental Risk Units Sold by Condition 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 5.0 4.0 - 4.9 50% 3.0 - 3.9 2.0 - 2.9 40% 0 - 1.9 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 Q4 2016 Q2 2016 Q4 2017 Q2 2017 Q4 2018 Q2 2018 Q4 2019 Q2 2019 Q4 2020 Q2 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 30 Rental Risk Units Sold by Make 100% 90% 80% All other 70% Mazda Kia 60% Jeep VW 50% Chrysler Hyundai 40% Dodge Toyota 30% Nissan Ford 20% Chevrolet 10% 0% 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 31 Rental Risk Units Sold by Segment 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% Van SUV 50% Sports Car Pickup 40% Luxury Car Midsize Car 30% Compact Car 20% 10% 0% 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Source: Manheim/Cox Automotive 32 Manheim Market Report (MMR) Vehicle Insights All top selling vehicles in June at Manheim saw higher prices over the last 30 days (June 1 – July 1).
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